2015 ReSAKSS Conference – Day 1 - Ousmane Badiane

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2014 Annual Trends and Outlook Report Beyond a Middle Income Africa

O. BADIANE

Director for Africa

IFPRI

H I G H L I G H T SKEY TOPICSTracking CAADP indicators

Since Maputo en route to Malabo

2. Mutual Accountability

Improved JSR Processes

Setting up Country SAKSS

3. Featured Topic: Background

4. Featured Topic: Key Findings

Major global and domestic trends

Key Drivers of Economic Recovery

Growth and Structural Change

Transformation of Ag. Value Chains

The challenge of industrialization

Infrastructure Gaps and Future Growth

H I G H L I G H T STRACKING INDICATORS: 2014 COMPARED TO PRE-CAADP (95-03)AGRIC. EXPENDITURE (US$2005)+ 86%

GROWTHbetween + 23 and 64%PER CAPITA GDP (US$2005)AG. VALUE ADDED (US$2005)AG. LABOR PRODUCTIVITY (US$2005)CEREAL YIELDS

POVERTY REDUCTIONbetween - 23 and - 36%

POVERTY GAP-

POVERTY HEADCOUNT (%POP)

NUTRITION IMPROVEMENTbetween -20 and 43%MALNUTRITION (%POP)

LOW WEIGHT FOR AGE (%UNDER 5)

LOW HEIGHT FOR AGE (%UNDER 5)

H I G H L I G H T S

ENHANCING MUTUAL ACCOUNTABILITY (# OF COUNTRIES)IMPROVED JSR17 going to 18

SAKSS PLATFORMS 9 going to 15

eATLAS TOOL13 going to 21

NEW ALLIANCE10

GROW AFRICA12

H I G H L I G H T S

2014 FEATURE TOPIC: BACKGROUNDAfrica is second fastest growing region in the WorldGDP growth rate: 5.2% (3.9 Pre-CAADP)Per capita GDP growth: 2.3% (1.3 Pre-CAADP)

Overall GDP doubled from the 1990s

Per capita GDP rose by 35%

Factors behind growth recoveryImprovements in macro and sector policiesIncreased investmentsFavorable commodities prices

H I G H L I G H T S

FEATURE TOPIC: BACKGROUNDKey areas of concerns

Economic stagnation / decline prior to growth recovery- Continued population growth- Sharp increase in poverty rates in the past

Recovery not long / strong enough to make up for lost ground

MDG1 not achieved by many countries despite good progress

Can recovery be sustained or even accelerated?

How to avoid trap of growth with low employment creation and slow income generation?

H I G H L I G H T S

FEATURE TOPIC: KEY FINDINGSMajor global and domestic trends

Most African countries will achieve middle income status by 2030

Production for most crops will double by 2050

Africas production shares will increase for most crops

Demand will double for some crops and triple for others

Africa will remain a net importer

Effect of climate change varies by crops

But it will raise prices for all crops

1

H I G H L I G H T S

FEATURE TOPIC: KEY FINDINGSMajor global and domestic trends (Continued)

Volatility of food and energy prices will remain

Urbanization will continue its rapid pace

Rise in incomes and middle class will continue

The youth population will continue to grow

1

H I G H L I G H T S

FEATURE TOPIC: KEY FINDINGSCurrent Economic Recovery and its drivers

Length and geographic spread of current growth recovery is unprecedented

But it will take many more decades to make up for the loss from 3 decades of stagnation and decline pre-recovery

Key drivers of current and future growth

- Quality macro and sector policies- Quality of governance- Increase in savings, investments, FDI, ODA

They made it possible for economies to respond to rising commodity prices

2

H I G H L I G H T S

FEATURE TOPIC: KEY FINDINGSGrowth and structural change performance

Structural change reduced overall labor productivity prior to recovery

It moved labor out of stagnating agriculture into fast growing, lower productivity informal goods and services (IGS) sector

IGS is now by far the largest sector in African economies, with consequences for future growth strategies

During recovery, structural change has started to raise labor productivity

Higher productivity in IGS and manufacturing is pulling labor out of growing agriculture

3

H I G H L I G H T S

FEATURE TOPIC: KEY FINDINGSTransformation agricultural value chains

Diets across Africa are changing due to rapid urbanization and rising middle class

Resulting in rapid changes in downstream segments of food staples value chains, with implications for:

Agribusiness enterprise creation and growth

Employment creation for women and youth

Income generation for local farmers

Food safety, health, and nutrition

4

H I G H L I G H T S

FEATURE TOPIC: KEY FINDINGSThe challenges of industrialization

Africa has lacked strong and consistent industrialization policies

Manufacturing growth has been weak and contributed little to recent growth recovery

Renewed industrial development strategies are critical to deepening and sustaining growth, which calls for:

- Continued improvement in economic governance

- Increased investment in infrastructure and S&T

- Adequate institutional infrastructure for expanded management and technical training

5

H I G H L I G H T S

FEATURE TOPIC: KEY FINDINGSInfrastructure gaps and future growth: Rural telecom, Electrification, Roads, and Water

Infrastructure gap compared to other regions:Largest in the power sectorSignificant for roadsVaries by type: none for mobile, large for broadband

Serious handicap for future competitiveness and growth

Key elements of strategy to fill infrastructure gap:Strong regulatory institutionsSound legal frameworksMarket based, public private partnership

6

H I G H L I G H T S

OVERALL CONCLUSIONSALL CORE CAADP INDICATORS SHOW GOOD PROGRESS

RECENT GROWH DRIVEN BY BETTER GOVERNANCE, POLICIES, INVESTMENT

ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION IS UNDERWAY

POSITIVE FUTURE OUTLOOK WITH POTENTIAL KEY CHALLENGES

MAIN RISKS TO FUTURE GROWTH AND PROSPERITY

REVERSAL OF IMPROVEMENTS IN POLICY AND GOVERNANCE

ABSENCE OF SOUND INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

PERSISTENT AND SERIOUS INFRASTRUCTURE GAPS

H I G H L I G H T S

OVERALL CONCLUSIONSATOR FINDINGS HIGHLIGHT RELEVANCE OF MALABO TARGETS

SUSTAINED PROGRESS TO END HUNGER AND REDUCE POVERTY BY 2025

GROWING AGRICULTURE TO FURTHER FUEL TRANSFORMATION

IMPROVED GOVERNANCE THRU MUTUAL ACCOUNTABILITY

INVESTMENTS TO FILL TECHNOLOGY AND INFRASTRUCTURE GAPS

RAISE COMPETITIVENESS TO BOOST INTRA AND FOREIGN TRADE

GREATER RESILIENCE AGAINST FUTURE RISKS AND SHOCKS

H I G H L I G H T S

ATOR15 FEATURE TOPICACHIEVING NUTRITION REVOLUTION IN AFRICA:

THE ROAD TO HEALTHIER DIETS FOR ALL