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World Offshore Accommodation Market Forecast 2015-2020energy business insight
e: [email protected] t: +44 (0)203 4799 505
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• Prospects• Technologies• Markets
Modest growth in offshore accommodation market despite Capex slowdownDouglas-Westwood (DW) forecast that over the period 2015 to 2020 demand for offshore accommodation vessels will average almost 42,000 Personnel on Board (PoB) per year. An increase of 14% compared to the preceding six-year period. Despite a peak between 2016 and 2018, the market will plateau towards 2020 as decreasing fixed platform installations and capital expenditure (Capex) restrictions lead to a decline in construction support.
Offshore accommodation units are utilised throughout a field lifecycle in both the opera-tional expenditure (Opex) and Capex stages. Over the forecast period Opex driven Life of Field (LoF) support will continue to dominate PoB requirements, accounting for 73% of de-mand, largely driven by the vast installed base of fixed platforms.
Operators will demand temporary accommo-dation support in order to minimise platform downtime during maintenance and modifica-tion work, ensuring continuity of production. Accommodation units, utilised to support hook-up and installation of platforms and sub-sea infrastructure, are more susceptible to oil price declines and will account for 27% of PoB requirements over the period.
Asia accounts for the largest share of accom-modation demand in the next six years, at 26%, due to the large number of installed platforms. The large tonnage of platforms in Western Europe, the substantial small fixed platform population in North America and increasing deepwater production in Africa are also key.
The World Offshore Accommodation Market Forecast 2015-2020 analyses the supply and demand for jackups / liftboats, barges (no DP), barges (DP), monohulls and semisubmersible accommodation units. Regional PoB require-ments are split by accommodation unit and the type of work scope, including well servicing, modifications, maintenance, EOR and construc-tion. The report includes:
• Macro-economic overview – analysis of the global macro-economic issues currently impacting the offshore accommodation market including: global energy demand and E&P trends, oil & gas production and prices and regional offshore production analysis.
• Drivers of offshore accommodation – an in-depth discussion of the factors encour-aging demand for accommodation units throughout the asset lifecycle: offshore wells drilled, offshore asset installations, fixed & floating platform installations and MMO expenditure.
World Offshore Accommodation Market Forecast 2015-2020energy business insight
e: [email protected] t: +44 (0)203 4799 505
www.douglas-westwood.com
Aberdeen | Faversham | Houston | London | Singapore
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• Market fundamentals – overview of ac-commodation units including definitions, key specifications and factors determining the suitability and choice of accommodation unit.
• Supply review – supply side trends including competitive supply breakdown by accom-modation unit and order book analysis.
• Accommodation market forecast – PoB demand by accommodation unit and work scope 2015-2020 with trend commentary for Africa, Asia, Australasia, Eastern Europe & FSU, Latin America, Middle East, North America and Western Europe.
Why purchase the Offshore Accommodation Market Forecast?Douglas-Westwood’s market forecasting is trusted by sector players worldwide, with clients including the world’s top-10 oil & gas companies, top-10 oilfield services companies and top-10 private equity firms.
An essential report – for financial institutions, vessel contractors, engineering companies, oil & gas companies and government agencies & departments wanting to make more informed investment decisions.
Our proven approach includes:
• Unique and proprietary data – updated year-round from published sources and insight gained from industry consultation.
• Detailed methodology – the report uses re-search from our own offshore database for fixed and floating platforms; an information system exclusive to DW, to form the basis of the models. Assumptions used to gener-ate market demand are the result of our pri-mary and secondary research. Demand-side analysis by work scope and accommodation unit provides a metric on which to establish future opportunities and provide a context for market share assessment.
• Comprehensive market forecasts – ex-amination, analysis and 12-year coverage of PoB demand, with hindcasts back to 2009.
• Concise report layout – consistent with DW’s commitment to delivering value for our clients, all our market forecasts have a concise layout consisting of industry back-ground and supporting materials condensed to enable quick review with ‘speed-read’ summaries of key points throughout.
ISBN 978-1-910045-18-3
"Douglas-Westwood are the sector study experts"- Oil & Gas Operator
"DW have such insightful and detailed industry information"
- Private Equity Firm
2015
World Offshore Accommodation
Market Forecast
Prospects, Technologies, World Markets
2015-2020
© 2015 Douglas-Westwood 2World Offshore Accommodation Market Forecast 2015-2020By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood
Contents
Table of Contents
1 Summary & Conclusions ..........................................7Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 8
Conclusions .................................................................................................................................... 9
2 Macro Economic Overview ................................. 10Population & GDP Growth Drive Energy Demand ............................................................. 11
Natural Gas .................................................................................................................................. 12
Oil & Gas Production ................................................................................................................. 13
Regional Offshore Production Outlook ................................................................................. 14
Oil & Gas Challenges ................................................................................................................. 15
Oil price volatility ....................................................................................................................... 16
Capex Compression ................................................................................................................... 17
3 Drivers of Offshore Accommodation ............... 18Asset Lifecycle Overview ......................................................................................................... 19
Offshore Wells Drilled............................................................................................................... 20
Offshore Asset Installations ...................................................................................................... 21
Fixed & Floating Platform Population ...................................................................................... 22
Offshore Maintenance, Modifications & Operations ........................................................... 23
4 Market Fundamentals ............................................ 24Accommodation Unit Definitions ............................................................................................ 25
Key Decision Criteria ................................................................................................................ 26
Regional Preferences .................................................................................................................. 27
Key Specifications ....................................................................................................................... 28
Workscope Suitability ................................................................................................................ 29
Accommodation Unit Day Rates ............................................................................................. 30
Accommodation Hub Concept ................................................................................................ 31
5 Supply Review ......................................................... 32Vessel Suitability .......................................................................................................................... 33
Vessel Suitability .......................................................................................................................... 34
Regional Offshore Accommodation Supply Drivers ............................................................ 35
Supply Methodology ................................................................................................................... 36
Jackups & Liftboats – Supply Side Trends ............................................................................... 37
Barges – Supply Side Trends ..................................................................................................... 38
Monohull Vessels – Supply Side Trends .................................................................................. 39
Semisubmersibles – Supply Side Trends ................................................................................. 40
Orderbook ................................................................................................................................... 41
Low PoB Units ............................................................................................................................. 42
6 Accommodation Market Forecast ...................... 43Model Summary...........................................................................................................................44
Global PoB Demand: by Accommodation Unit .................................................................... 45
Global PoB Demand & Supply .................................................................................................. 46
Global PoB Demand: by Workscope ...................................................................................... 47
Global PoB Demand: by Region ............................................................................................... 48
Africa PoB Demand .................................................................................................................... 49
Asia PoB Demand ....................................................................................................................... 50
Australasia PoB Demand ........................................................................................................... 51
Eastern Europe & FSU PoB Demand....................................................................................... 52
Latin America PoB Demand ...................................................................................................... 53
Middle East PoB Demand .......................................................................................................... 54
North America PoB Demand ................................................................................................... 55
Western Europe PoB Demand ................................................................................................. 56
7 Appendix .................................................................. 57Data and Text Conventions ...................................................................................................... 58
© 2015 Douglas-Westwood 3World Offshore Accommodation Market Forecast 2015-2020By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood
Contents
Figures
Figure 1: Global PoB Demand by Region 2009-2020 ..................................................................................8
Figure 2: Global Population Growth & Energy Demand, 1965-2035 ............................................... 11
Figure 3: Historic Primary Energy Demand by Region, 1965-2013 ................................................... 11
Figure 4: Levellised Cost of Energy ($/mwh) ................................................................................................ 12
Figure 5: Natural Gas Prices 1996-2014 ($/mbtu) ..................................................................................... 12
Figure 6: Oil & Gas Production by Offshore and Onshore 2000-2020 ......................................... 13
Figure 7: Offshore Oil & Gas Production by Region 2000-2020 ...................................................... 13
Figure 8: Offshore/Onshore Production Split 2015 ................................................................................... 13
Figure 9: Oil & Gas Production vs E&P Spend ............................................................................................. 15
Figure 10: Skilled Workers Age Category ....................................................................................................... 15
Figure 11: Brent and WTI Oil Prices, January 2007 – February 2015 .............................................. 16
Figure 12: Oil Price to Balance Budgets vs Current Brent at $65 ...................................................... 16
Figure 13: Cash Return on Cash Invested (CROCI) and the Brent Oil Price 1965-2017 ..... 17
Figure 14: Shallow Water (<500m) Wells Drilled 2000-2020 ........................................................... 20
Figure 15: Deepwater (>500m) Wells Drilled 2000-2020 ................................................................... 20
Figure 16: Fixed and Floating Platform Installations 2002-2020 ......................................................... 21
Figure 17: Subsea Tree Installations and Subsea Capex 2002-2020 ................................................ 21
Figure 19: Total Platform Population byRegion, 2015 ............................................................................... 22
Figure 18: Fixed and Floating Platform Population by Region, 2015-2020 .................................... 22
Figure 20: Offshore MMO Expenditure on Fixed and Floating Platforms 2009-2020 ............. 23
Figure 21: Key Accommodation Specifications ............................................................................................. 28
Figure 22: Typical Day Rate Range by Unit Type ......................................................................................... 30
Figure 23: Accommodation Hub Concept ..................................................................................................... 31
Figure 24: Potential Regions for the Accommodation Hub Concept ............................................... 31
Figure 25: Accommodation Fleet Construction Cycle ............................................................................. 34
Figure 26: Supply of Accommodation Units .................................................................................................. 36
Figure 27: Global PoB Demand by Accommodation Unit 2009-2020 ............................................ 45
Figure 28: Average Global PoB Demand by Accommodation Unit, 2009-14 & 2015-20 ..... 45
Figure 29: Global PoB Demand and Supply 2009-2020 .......................................................................... 46
Figure 30: Global PoB Demand by Workscope 2009-2020 .................................................................. 47
Figure 31: Global PoB Demand by Workscope, 2009-2014 and 2015-2020 .............................. 47
Figure 32: Global PoB Demand by Region 2009-2020 ............................................................................ 48
Figure 33: Global PoB Demand by Region, 2009-2014 and 2015-2020 ......................................... 48
Figure 34: Africa PoB Demand by Accommodation Unit 2009-2020 .............................................. 49
Figure 35: Asia PoB Demand by Accommodation Unit 2009-2020 ................................................. 50
Figure 36: Australasia PoB Demand by Accommodation Unit 2009-2020 ................................... 51
Figure 37: Eastern Europe & FSU PoB Demand by Accommodation Unit 2009-2020 .......... 52
Figure 38: Latin America PoB Demand by Accommodation Unit 2009-2020 ............................ 53
Figure 39: Middle East PoB Demand by Accommodation Unit 2009-2020.................................. 54
Figure 40: North America PoB Demand by Accommodation Unit 2009-2020 ......................... 55
Figure 41: Western Europe PoB Demand by Accommodation Unit 2009-2020....................... 56
© 2015 Douglas-Westwood 4World Offshore Accommodation Market Forecast 2015-2020By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood
Contents
Tables
Table 1: Accommodation Unit Preference by Region .............................................................................. 27
Table 2: Large Accommodation Units ............................................................................................................... 36
Table 3: Supply Overview: Jackups & Liftboats ............................................................................................. 37
Table 4: Supply Overview: Barges ....................................................................................................................... 38
Table 5: Supply Overview: Monohull Vessels ................................................................................................. 39
Table 6: Supply Overview: Semisubmersibles................................................................................................ 40
Table 7: Supply Overview: Orderbook – All Units ..................................................................................... 41
Table 8: Supply Overview: Barges ....................................................................................................................... 42
Table 9: Global PoB Demand by Accommodation Unit 2014-2020 ................................................. 45
Table 10: Global PoB Demand and Supply 2015-2020 ............................................................................ 46
Table 11: Global PoB Demand by Workscope 2014-2020 .................................................................... 47
Table 12: Global PoB Demand by Region 2014-2020 .............................................................................. 48
Table 13: Africa PoB Demand by Accommodation Unit 2014-2020 ................................................ 49
Table 14: Africa PoB Demand by Workscope 2014-2020 ..................................................................... 49
Table 15: Asia PoB Demand by Accommodation Unit 2014-2020 ................................................... 50
Table 16: Asia PoB Demand by Workscope 2014-2020 ......................................................................... 50
Table 17: Australasia PoB Demand by Accommodation Unit 2014-2020 ..................................... 51
Table 18: Australasia PoB Demand by Workscope 2014-2020 ........................................................... 51
Table 19: Eastern Europe & FSU PoB Demand by Accommodation Unit 2014-2020 ............ 52
Table 20: Eastern Europe & FSU PoB Demand by Workscope 2014-2020 .................................. 52
Table 21: Latin America PoB Demand by Accommodation Unit 2014-2020 .............................. 53
Table 22: Latin America PoB Demand by Workscope 2014-2020 .................................................... 53
Table 23: Middle East PoB Demand by Accommodation Unit 2014-2020 ................................... 54
Table 24: Middle East PoB Demand by Workscope 2014-2020 ......................................................... 54
Table 25: North America PoB Demand by Accommodation Unit 2014-2020 ........................... 55
Table 26: North America PoB Demand by Workscope 2014-2020 ................................................. 55
Table 27: Western Europe PoB Demand by Accommodation Unit 2014-2020 ........................ 56
Table 28: Western Europe PoB Demand by Workscope 2014-2020 .............................................. 56
© 2015 Douglas-Westwood 5World Offshore Accommodation Market Forecast 2015-2020By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood
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ISBN 978-1-910045-18-3
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