An introduction to Bitcoin, it's price history and it's future potential.
- 1. Why buy Bitcoins? An introduction by Coin4ce January 28th, 20141
2. What is Bitcoin? The worlds first decentralized, peer-to-peer, digital crypto-currency Bitcoin is a new type of money that can be sent instantly through the Internet to anyone, anywhere in the world, without restriction, and for free. Bitcoins are not controlled by any bank, government, or corporation; rather, Bitcoins are created and transmitted by a network using a peer-to-peer, open source distributed protocol, whose security is based on the immutable mathematical laws of cryptography (digital signatures and collision-resistant hash functions). Bitcoin is very similar to gold, since it can be traded, it can be used as a means of saving, it exists in limited quantity (21,000,000), and it is created through a costly computational process called mining. For a detailed review of what Bitcoin is, ask for a separate presentation on What is Bitcoin. 2 3. Why is Bitcoin important? Bitcoin levels the financial playing field on a global scale As Bitcoin awareness and acceptance grows, it will help eliminate disadvantages felt by people who currently lack access to a strong banking system and who have no protection from currency fluctuation. As of January 23rd, 2014 Bitcoins market cap is above $10 Billion USD In June 2013, the market cap exceeded $1 Billion USD In June 2011, the market cap exceeded $10 Million USD Anyone in the world with internet access can utilize Bitcoin as a payment method. An informative, brief and simple video from Bitcoin.org: What is Bitcoin? When asked about Bitcoin, Bill Gates said"IT'S A TECHNOLOGICAL TOUR-DE-FORCE" 3 4. Some Bitcoin Facts! Bitcoin: two years later, from controversial to cool Many large and popular companies, such as Wordpress, Overstock.com, and Okcupid now accept Bitcoin. There are over 30,000 merchants globally now accepting Bitcoin. This number increases everyday. Many prominent Venture Capital funds like Founders Fund, Andreessen Horowitz, Draper Fisher Jurvetson, and Liberty Ventures have invested in Bitcoin start-ups. The Bitcoin network generates more than 1,000 petaflops (1 exaflop) of raw computing power. Tianhe-2, currently the world's fastest supercomputer, located at the National University of Defense Technology in China, generates less than 60 petaflops. Titan at Oak Ridge National Laboraroty is the second largest at under 30 petaflops.4 5. Who is using Bitcoin and why? Motivations of market participants Individual Users:Merchants:Investors:International settlements: remittances to home countries faster and cheaper than wire transfersBitcoin Price Agnostic: can eliminate currency risk by converting straight to USD/other instantlyLong term buy and hold: retail investors and users, institutions entering market, minersPrivacy reasons: OkcupidSecurity: lower risk of ID or CC theft by insecure 3rd party sites or fraudlent vendorsFundamental Demand: follows user demand rather than price runups/speculationProfessional traders: hedge funds, high net worth individuals, high frequencyShort term buyers: new traders, reactive to hype cycleMicro-transactions: previously cost prohibitedEasier implementation: no credit review or application process5 6. Who is using Bitcoin and why? The viral loop for market participants Individual Users: need a better way to send money securely, cheaply, globally, and privately. Unbanked populations worldwide need a secure value transfer system. Some users need to escape monetary pressures/restrictions (i.e. Argentina, Cyprus).IndividualsMerchantsInvestorsMerchants: need users to pay for goods and services in Bitcoin to save on credit card (or other payment system) fees. Merchants get instant access to a global market: banked or unbanked. Investors: need fundamental non-speculative demand to carry long term price appreciation. Continued investment fuels user growth and merchant adoption. Users and merchants are also investors when they choose to hold Bitcoins rather than convert them instantly.6 7. Why you should use Bitcoins It follows a viral adoption growth pattern Exponential growth is organic/viral adoption a natural phenomenonSource: bitcoincharts.com7 8. Why you should use Bitcoins Viral growth on a logarithmic scale From October 10th, 2010, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) went from $0.10 USD/BTC to $1000 USD/BTC (on December 10th, 2013) Thats an increase of 1,000,000% in 38 months$1000 USD/BTC$0.10 USD/BTCSource: bitcoincharts.com8 9. Google Search Volume for Bitcoin Two main adoptions waves - This is a graph of people searching for bitcoin in Google - The search spikes directly correlate to the price spikes from the previous two slides -2nd Wave3rd Wave1st WaveEarly AdoptersSource: Google TrendsTrough of Disillusionment9 10. Google Search Volume for Bitcoin The geographic locations of the searches The first adoption wave happened in the US, Europe, Russia, China, and AustraliaJanuary 2011 Only early adopters know about Bitcoin Source: Google TrendsJune 2011 1st widespread adoption wave 10 11. Google Search Volume for Bitcoin The geographic locations of the searches 2nd adoption wave hits US, Europe, Russia, etc Latam, India, Africa start their 1st adoption waveCoin4ceJanuary 2012 Trough of disillusionment, price of Bitcoin hits $2 USD/BTCSource: Google TrendsMarch 2013 2nd adoption wave11 12. Google Search Volume for Bitcoin The geographic locations of the searches Adoption is currently becoming more widespreadMany countries that previously never had an search volume are starting to learn about BitcoinSource: Google Trends12 13. The price evolution of Bitcoin January 2011 Only early adopters know about Bitcoin Satoshis paper is released in 2009, Bitcoin starts trading at Mt.Gox in September 2010Source: bitcoincharts.com13 14. The price evolution of Bitcoin June 2011 1st widespread adoption wave Bitcoin rises to $30 USD/BTC from $1 USD/BTC in three months.$30 USD/BTCSource: bitcoincharts.com14 15. The price evolution of Bitcoin December 2011 The trough of disillusionment The price of Bitcoin hits $2 USD/BTC, rebounds to $7 USD/BTC$7 USD/BTC$2 USD/BTCSource: bitcoincharts.com15 16. The price evolution of Bitcoin March 2013 2nd adoption wave After recovering from $2 USD/BTC, theres a long period of steady demand-driven appreciation to $20 USD/BTC before it goes parabolic in its second adoption wave2nd adoption wave $250 USD/BTC Back to $10 USD/BTCSource: bitcoincharts.comBack to $20 USD/BTC16 17. The price evolution of Bitcoin Fall 2013 3rd adoption wave After closure of Silk Road, price goes from $100 USD/BTC to over $1000 USD/BTC, led in large part by demand in China and favorable sentiment from the US government$1000 USD/BTCSilk Road closure, $100 USD/BTCSource: bitcoincharts.com17 18. The third adoption wave is cooling Number of 1st-time Bitcoin downloads from Sourceforge-24**Note this is only 1st-time users downloading the Bitcoin client, this does not reflect how much current users are using Bitcoins**Source: sourceforge.net18 19. Sentiment based cool-down analysis Assuming Then = Now; Run-ups followed by cool down period First Wave - run up to ~$30 Cool down to ~$2-8 range Drop off ~70-90%Source: bitcoincharts.comSecond Wave - run up to ~$250 Cool down to ~$65-100 range Drop off ~60-75%Third Wave - run up to ~$1200 Cool down to ~$500-900 range Drop off ~25-60% (so far)19 20. Does Then = Now? Whats different this time around?Then:Now: Bitcoin was controversial Bitcoin is cool Regulatory uncertainty FINCENs regulation is partially clear No VC backing Major VC backing Just US, EU, Russia, Australia Just techies, traders, cryptos, etc. Starting to go global: Latam, Africa, Asia Starting to go mainstream in USA 1st/2nd education wave 3rd education waveConclusion: Then does not equal now, and so . 20 21. Whats a fair price to start buying? Anything under $1000 USD/BTC? bullish: Long term upside for Bitcoin is veryNow?o Multitude of vested interests: major VCs, heavy investment, confidenceo More educated: users and new countries creating demando Better infrastructure: the ecosystem continues to evolve and improve with more start-up incentiveso Merchant adoption: is at an all time high and growing rapidlyo Higher word-of-mouth: the network effect causes accelerated adoptiono Track record: Bitcoin has a 4 year track-record of consistent growthHow high could Bitcoin go in the long run?21 22. Whats a fair price to start buying? Caveats to an aggregate analysis The market cap of Bitcoin is only ~$10 Billion USD - Very small in the world of finance - Government statements and other major news stories can influence short-term prices significantly - Impossible to predict exact shocks from these items Over the long run, Bitcoin has - Grown virally, and - Returned to its fundamental value based on utility So what could be the long term value of Bitcoin? 22 23. Long Term Value of Bitcoin Value Transfer System = Global Currency Markets o Daily global FX turnover is $4 trillion USD as of 2013 o Daily Bitcoin turnover is $100M USDo To capture 1% of the Forex markets o Bitcoin turnover would have to increase to $40 billion USDo This equals a 40,000.00% increase from todaySource: http://bit.ly/1a3n6g323 24. Long Term Value of Bitcoin Store of Wealth = Money Supply, Assets, Gold Global known gold reserves = $7.35 Trillion USD Total fiat money supply globally = $68.34 Trillion USD Total known debt globally = $136.89 Trillion USD Global other assets (stocks, real estate, etc.) = $198.1 Trillion USD Total estimated Value of Global Wealth = $410 Trillion USD Current market cap of Bitcoin = $10 Billion USD 1% parity means Bitcoins market cap increases to $4 Trillion USD, ~40,000.00% from today24 25. Long Term Value of Bitcoin What Bitcoin price does that correspond too? 12.26 of 21 million coins exist today In 2016 there will be 15 million coins in circulation in 2025 there will be 20 mill