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© OECD/IEA 2017 © OECD/IEA 2017

Webinar: Energy Access Outlook 2017

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Page 1: Webinar: Energy Access Outlook 2017

© OECD/IEA 2017 © OECD/IEA 2017

Page 2: Webinar: Energy Access Outlook 2017

© OECD/IEA 2017

Context

The 2015 Sustainable Development Goals recognise energy access as the “golden thread” that weaves together human development, economic growth & sustainability

Yet, this report finds that today, 1.1 billion people lack access to electricity &2.8 billion people do not have access to clean cooking

Women without access bear the burden, spending over 5 hours each day gathering wood & cooking on polluting stoves, linked to 2.8 million premature deaths each year

The declining costs of renewables and digital technologies are transforming the electricity access landscape

But is this new political momentum & technology progress enough to bring universal access to modern energy?

Page 3: Webinar: Energy Access Outlook 2017

© OECD/IEA 2017

Women are disproportionately impacted by lack of energy access

Average number of hours spent collecting fuel per day per household

A high reliance on biomass for cooking in many countries means that women and children without clean cooking access spend an average of 1.4 hours/day collecting fuel

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1

2

3

4

5

Ho

urs

Number of hours per day Share of population relying on biomass for cooking (right axis)

Page 4: Webinar: Energy Access Outlook 2017

© OECD/IEA 2017

A lack of access to clean cooking facilities kills

Population without access to clean cooking & related premature deaths, 2015

Household air pollution is responsible for 2.8 million premature deaths every year, concentrated in countries with a high reliance on biomass and coal for cooking

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

China India Sub-SaharanAfrica

Otherdeveloping

Asia

OtherSoutheast Asia

Indonesia Mill

ion

pre

mat

ure

dea

ths

Mill

ion

peo

ple

Traditional use of biomass Coal Kerosene Premature deaths (right axis)

Page 5: Webinar: Energy Access Outlook 2017

© OECD/IEA 2017

Improved access to clean cooking remains elusive

Impact of policies and population growth on the number of people without access to clean cooking

In many regions, the impact of policies is over-shadowed by population growth

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

2000 2015

Mill

ion

pe

op

le Rest of the world

Sub-Saharan Africa

Other developing Asia

India

China

Populationgaining access

Populationgrowth

Page 6: Webinar: Energy Access Outlook 2017

© OECD/IEA 2017

Million people

200

400

600

2000 2005 2010 2016

Progress in electricity access is seen in all world regions, but sub-Saharan Africa lags behind

Population without electricity access

Many countries, led by India, are on track to achieving full electrification by 2030, but – despite recent progress – efforts in sub-Saharan Africa need to redouble

Sub-Saharan Africa

IndiaOther Asia

2020 2025 2030

IndiaOther Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

Million

200

400

600

2000 2005 2010 2016

Sub-Saharan Africa

IndiaOther Asia

2020 2025 2030

Page 7: Webinar: Energy Access Outlook 2017

© OECD/IEA 2017

A shift in the electricity access paradigm

Population gaining access by source

Declining cost of renewables and innovative off-grid business models are transforming the way access is delivered, especially in rural areas

Fossil fuels39%

2017-2030

Coal16%

Gas9%

Other14%

2000-2016

Renewables30%

Coal45%

Gas19%

Other, 7%

Renewables61%

Renewables30%

Grid27%

Renewables61%

Decentralised38%

Grid23%

Page 8: Webinar: Energy Access Outlook 2017

© OECD/IEA 2017

Achieving access for all by 2030

Page 9: Webinar: Energy Access Outlook 2017

© OECD/IEA 2017

An IEA strategy to universal electricity access

On-Grid

Mini-Grid

Off-Grid

Existing grid

Grid extension for 150 million additional people, with hydro accounting for the lion’s share

Decentralised solutions, mainly solar PV, for the remaining 450 million people in rural areas

An additional $26 billion per year is needed in electricity generation and grids

In 2030, 90% of those without access in sub-Saharan Africa are in rural areas; electricity for all needs an acceleration in the deployment of decentralised systems

Least-cost solution for delivering universal electricity access in the Energy for All Case, 2030

Page 10: Webinar: Energy Access Outlook 2017

© OECD/IEA 2017

Efficient appliances provide more for less

Efficient appliances bring down the cost of delivering electricity access with off-grid solutions by one-third

Page 11: Webinar: Energy Access Outlook 2017

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The deployment of a range of clean fuels and technologies can lower premature deaths related to household air pollution from 2.5 to 0.7 million in 2030

Today 2030

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000Millionpeople

Population without access to clean cooking

Clean cooking for all: what will it take?

90%

10%

Clean fuels and technologies used for cooking in developing countries in the

Energy for All Case, 2030

Gained accessin the Central

Scenario

Gained accessin the Energyfor All Case

Biomass(improved)

16%

LPG30%Gas

35%

Electricity17%

Other, 2%

2000

Page 12: Webinar: Energy Access Outlook 2017

© OECD/IEA 2017

New test protocols are required for lab tests, but field campaigns can not be replaced to understand implications of some issues like “stove stacking”

• lack of results for ICS proving statistically significant reduction in emissions

• For micro-gasifiers evidence based results don’t comply with WHO targets

Laboratory Tests

Clean cooking To promote evidence-based “improved” technologies

assess stoves’ performance under controlled conditions => may improve ICSs design

fixed cooking system – pot, fuel, burn sequence

fixed Boundary Condition: room size, shape & ventilation

expert users: ability to operate the stove may vary

Integrating local context factor i.e different burn sequences

“improved” and “clean” technologies

Page 13: Webinar: Energy Access Outlook 2017

© OECD/IEA 2017

Technological choice is strongly influenced by local practice and culture, such as speed of cooking, taste of traditional dishes and family harmony

90%

10%

Cooking fuels &technologies: trade-offs

1. Go local

2. Convince people of the benefits

3. Engage women

4. Monitor and adapt

5. Use a subsidy when necessary

Clean cooking programmes: best practise

Clean cooking To promote evidence-based “improved” technologies

Page 14: Webinar: Energy Access Outlook 2017

© OECD/IEA 2017

Woman’s relief may start a virtuous cycle of opportunities to unveil diversity within the energy supply chain for socio-economic activities

Clean cooking:to unveil a gender-based opportunity for society

90%

10%

Energy Solutions 4 productive uses

Women’s relief at household level

Toward Clean

Cooking

for all

HealthEntrepreneurs

Time Energy business

…technologies, business models…

Diversity in socio-economic thinking

Page 15: Webinar: Energy Access Outlook 2017

Energy Solutions need to be designed FOR - BY - WITH the people without them, no transformative change in energy access could be achieved

The power of human capital:To exploit more effectively capacity building

…beyond delivering«training hours»

... capacitybuilding

«Appropriate energysolutions…must respond to the needs, capacities,

and aspirations of people and be absorbed within

the local culture…”Comprehesiveand life cycle

approach

Mix of TeachingStrategies and Tools

DiversifiedTargets for Diversified

SkillsSEAR Special Report, 2017:

The Power of human Capital, the World Bank

Page 16: Webinar: Energy Access Outlook 2017

Systemic integration of functions, data and governance may generate more effective resource management and equitable access to services

A new paradigm of Infrastructure: to foster Integration among services

The ‘leapfrogging’ transformation toward SMART & Integrated infrastructure may match the need of People, Planet & Prosperity

Toward Smart and Integrated Infrastructure for Africa, ICA

Background Paper 2017Inter-sectorial synergies are crucial among energy, transport and ICT and other services provided 1. right asset of governance is in place and 2. multidimensional involvement of citizens is enabled

Limited Access to other services like ICT and transport beyond energy

Internet<30%Broadband<5%

Rails ~15%Passengers ~5% Goods ~3%

Page 17: Webinar: Energy Access Outlook 2017

© OECD/IEA 2017

Realising energy for all won’t cost the earth

Additional impact of the Energy for All Case relative to the Central Scenario, 2030

The benefits of achieving universal energy access by 2030 far outweigh the costs

0% Net increase in greenhouse-gas emissions

1.8 Million deathsavoided annually

2 Months of worksaved annuallyper woman

1.9%Increase in global energy investment

Page 18: Webinar: Energy Access Outlook 2017

© OECD/IEA 2017

Conclusions

Achieving energy for all is essential for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, especially for improving livelihoods, health, gender equality and education

Cost declines in solar and energy efficiency open new and viable rural electrification strategies to “leave no one behind”

Universal access to clean cooking cannot be achieved unless it is elevated on the political agenda and women are at the heart of delivering solutions

Energy access and climate goals are not in conflict

The IEA will continue to lead in providing data, analysis and policy guidance to support governments & the international community to achieve SDG 7.1 – energy for all

Page 19: Webinar: Energy Access Outlook 2017

© OECD/IEA 2017

Explore the data behind the Energy Access Outlook-2017

Download the free report and country-by-country database covering >140 countries:

www.iea.org/energyaccess