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© OECD/IEA 2017 © OECD/IEA 2017
© OECD/IEA 2017
Context
The 2015 Sustainable Development Goals recognise energy access as the “golden thread” that weaves together human development, economic growth & sustainability
Yet, this report finds that today, 1.1 billion people lack access to electricity &2.8 billion people do not have access to clean cooking
Women without access bear the burden, spending over 5 hours each day gathering wood & cooking on polluting stoves, linked to 2.8 million premature deaths each year
The declining costs of renewables and digital technologies are transforming the electricity access landscape
But is this new political momentum & technology progress enough to bring universal access to modern energy?
© OECD/IEA 2017
Women are disproportionately impacted by lack of energy access
Average number of hours spent collecting fuel per day per household
A high reliance on biomass for cooking in many countries means that women and children without clean cooking access spend an average of 1.4 hours/day collecting fuel
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1
2
3
4
5
Ho
urs
Number of hours per day Share of population relying on biomass for cooking (right axis)
© OECD/IEA 2017
A lack of access to clean cooking facilities kills
Population without access to clean cooking & related premature deaths, 2015
Household air pollution is responsible for 2.8 million premature deaths every year, concentrated in countries with a high reliance on biomass and coal for cooking
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
China India Sub-SaharanAfrica
Otherdeveloping
Asia
OtherSoutheast Asia
Indonesia Mill
ion
pre
mat
ure
dea
ths
Mill
ion
peo
ple
Traditional use of biomass Coal Kerosene Premature deaths (right axis)
© OECD/IEA 2017
Improved access to clean cooking remains elusive
Impact of policies and population growth on the number of people without access to clean cooking
In many regions, the impact of policies is over-shadowed by population growth
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
2000 2015
Mill
ion
pe
op
le Rest of the world
Sub-Saharan Africa
Other developing Asia
India
China
Populationgaining access
Populationgrowth
© OECD/IEA 2017
Million people
200
400
600
2000 2005 2010 2016
Progress in electricity access is seen in all world regions, but sub-Saharan Africa lags behind
Population without electricity access
Many countries, led by India, are on track to achieving full electrification by 2030, but – despite recent progress – efforts in sub-Saharan Africa need to redouble
Sub-Saharan Africa
IndiaOther Asia
2020 2025 2030
IndiaOther Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Million
200
400
600
2000 2005 2010 2016
Sub-Saharan Africa
IndiaOther Asia
2020 2025 2030
© OECD/IEA 2017
A shift in the electricity access paradigm
Population gaining access by source
Declining cost of renewables and innovative off-grid business models are transforming the way access is delivered, especially in rural areas
Fossil fuels39%
2017-2030
Coal16%
Gas9%
Other14%
2000-2016
Renewables30%
Coal45%
Gas19%
Other, 7%
Renewables61%
Renewables30%
Grid27%
Renewables61%
Decentralised38%
Grid23%
© OECD/IEA 2017
Achieving access for all by 2030
© OECD/IEA 2017
An IEA strategy to universal electricity access
On-Grid
Mini-Grid
Off-Grid
Existing grid
Grid extension for 150 million additional people, with hydro accounting for the lion’s share
Decentralised solutions, mainly solar PV, for the remaining 450 million people in rural areas
An additional $26 billion per year is needed in electricity generation and grids
In 2030, 90% of those without access in sub-Saharan Africa are in rural areas; electricity for all needs an acceleration in the deployment of decentralised systems
Least-cost solution for delivering universal electricity access in the Energy for All Case, 2030
© OECD/IEA 2017
Efficient appliances provide more for less
Efficient appliances bring down the cost of delivering electricity access with off-grid solutions by one-third
© OECD/IEA 2017
The deployment of a range of clean fuels and technologies can lower premature deaths related to household air pollution from 2.5 to 0.7 million in 2030
Today 2030
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000Millionpeople
Population without access to clean cooking
Clean cooking for all: what will it take?
90%
10%
Clean fuels and technologies used for cooking in developing countries in the
Energy for All Case, 2030
Gained accessin the Central
Scenario
Gained accessin the Energyfor All Case
Biomass(improved)
16%
LPG30%Gas
35%
Electricity17%
Other, 2%
2000
© OECD/IEA 2017
New test protocols are required for lab tests, but field campaigns can not be replaced to understand implications of some issues like “stove stacking”
• lack of results for ICS proving statistically significant reduction in emissions
• For micro-gasifiers evidence based results don’t comply with WHO targets
Laboratory Tests
Clean cooking To promote evidence-based “improved” technologies
assess stoves’ performance under controlled conditions => may improve ICSs design
fixed cooking system – pot, fuel, burn sequence
fixed Boundary Condition: room size, shape & ventilation
expert users: ability to operate the stove may vary
Integrating local context factor i.e different burn sequences
“improved” and “clean” technologies
© OECD/IEA 2017
Technological choice is strongly influenced by local practice and culture, such as speed of cooking, taste of traditional dishes and family harmony
90%
10%
Cooking fuels &technologies: trade-offs
1. Go local
2. Convince people of the benefits
3. Engage women
4. Monitor and adapt
5. Use a subsidy when necessary
Clean cooking programmes: best practise
Clean cooking To promote evidence-based “improved” technologies
© OECD/IEA 2017
Woman’s relief may start a virtuous cycle of opportunities to unveil diversity within the energy supply chain for socio-economic activities
Clean cooking:to unveil a gender-based opportunity for society
90%
10%
Energy Solutions 4 productive uses
Women’s relief at household level
Toward Clean
Cooking
for all
HealthEntrepreneurs
Time Energy business
…technologies, business models…
Diversity in socio-economic thinking
Energy Solutions need to be designed FOR - BY - WITH the people without them, no transformative change in energy access could be achieved
The power of human capital:To exploit more effectively capacity building
…beyond delivering«training hours»
... capacitybuilding
«Appropriate energysolutions…must respond to the needs, capacities,
and aspirations of people and be absorbed within
the local culture…”Comprehesiveand life cycle
approach
Mix of TeachingStrategies and Tools
DiversifiedTargets for Diversified
SkillsSEAR Special Report, 2017:
The Power of human Capital, the World Bank
Systemic integration of functions, data and governance may generate more effective resource management and equitable access to services
A new paradigm of Infrastructure: to foster Integration among services
The ‘leapfrogging’ transformation toward SMART & Integrated infrastructure may match the need of People, Planet & Prosperity
Toward Smart and Integrated Infrastructure for Africa, ICA
Background Paper 2017Inter-sectorial synergies are crucial among energy, transport and ICT and other services provided 1. right asset of governance is in place and 2. multidimensional involvement of citizens is enabled
Limited Access to other services like ICT and transport beyond energy
Internet<30%Broadband<5%
Rails ~15%Passengers ~5% Goods ~3%
© OECD/IEA 2017
Realising energy for all won’t cost the earth
Additional impact of the Energy for All Case relative to the Central Scenario, 2030
The benefits of achieving universal energy access by 2030 far outweigh the costs
0% Net increase in greenhouse-gas emissions
1.8 Million deathsavoided annually
2 Months of worksaved annuallyper woman
1.9%Increase in global energy investment
© OECD/IEA 2017
Conclusions
Achieving energy for all is essential for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, especially for improving livelihoods, health, gender equality and education
Cost declines in solar and energy efficiency open new and viable rural electrification strategies to “leave no one behind”
Universal access to clean cooking cannot be achieved unless it is elevated on the political agenda and women are at the heart of delivering solutions
Energy access and climate goals are not in conflict
The IEA will continue to lead in providing data, analysis and policy guidance to support governments & the international community to achieve SDG 7.1 – energy for all
© OECD/IEA 2017
Explore the data behind the Energy Access Outlook-2017
Download the free report and country-by-country database covering >140 countries:
www.iea.org/energyaccess