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The search for absolute returns
Julius Baer Absolute Return Bond Funds
Tim Haywood, CEO & Portfolio ManagerAugustus Asset Managers Limited
17th March 2009
For professionalclients only!
2
Delegation of investment management
Each of the Julius Baer Absolute Return Bond Funds has appointed Augustus Managers Limited as its sub-advisor, with full responsibility for portfolio management.
The following presentation has been created by Bank Julius Baer & co, Zurich.
3
Short-term rates heading fast towards 0% globallyCentral bank monetary policy rates, as of March 5, 2009
Source: Datastream, Bloomberg, Julius Baer
% %
North America
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09
US Canada
Western Europe
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09
EMU UK Sw eden Norw ay Sw itz
Japan%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09
Australia & New Zealand%
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09
Australia New Zealand
LEH default
LEH default
LEH default
LEH default
4
"Safe" is hardly "risk-free"… 5-year single name CDS spreads; sovereigns; as of February 27, 2009
Source: Bloomberg, Julius Baer
Bps
Dramatically higher risk premiums…
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09
Germany France Netherlands Austria Ireland Greece Italy Spain UK Portugal Belgium Sweden
Bps
GermanyFrance
Netherlands
Austria
Ireland
Greece
Italy
SpainUKPortugalBelgiumSweden
US Japan
Australia
Brazil
China
Peru
Poland
Slovakia
Thailand
NZ
Chile
Israel
Malaysia
Norway
Czech
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
…move EMU sovereigns near EM space
AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB
LEH default
Weighted average external credit rating (S&P/Moody’s)
5
…as "system" support triggers massive re-financing requirements…
Source: US Treasury Office of Debt Management, Julius Baer
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1Q94 1Q95 1Q96 1Q97 1Q98 1Q99 1Q00 1Q01 1Q02 1Q03 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09
US Treasury quarterly net primary issuance USD bn
6
…set to provide for steeper government curves… 2s/10s, based on government benchmark curves, as of February 27, 2009
Note: Month-end data. Source: Datastream, Bloomberg, Julius Baer
bps bps
North America
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09
US Canada
Western Europe
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09
EMU UK Sw eden Norw ay Sw itz
Japanbps
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09
Australia & New Zealandbps
-180
-120
-60
0
60
120
180
Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09
Australia New Zealand
LEH default
LEH default
LEH default
LEH default
7
…and "flight to quality" tradeBenchmark government bonds within a long- and short-term perspective
Source: US Federal Reserve, Datastream, Julius Baer
%
Further collapse in yields…
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Apr-53 Apr-63 Apr-73 Apr-83 Apr-93 Apr-03
2yr US Treasuries 10yr US Treasuries
%
…but bottom appears to be nearing
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08
2yr US Treasuries 2yr German Schatz
LEH default LEH default
8
Risk assets trade way off fundamentals…Global High Yield Corporates, as of February 27, 2009
Source: Moody's, Merrill Lynch, Julius Baer
1'761
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
Apr-20 Apr-28 Apr-36 Apr-44 Apr-52 Apr-60 Apr-68 Apr-76 Apr-84 Apr-92 Apr-00 Apr-08
150
305
460
615
770
925
1080
1235
1390
1545
1700
1855
2010
Moody's actual global speculative grade default rate (number of issuers, %age market)Moody's projected global speculative grade default rate (number of issuers, %age of market)Global corporate high yield credit spread (rhs)Moody's actual average global speculative grade default rate (number of issuers, %age of market)
Ø 2.73%
% Default rate (number of issuers) Credit spread (basis points)
All-time high for defaults
9
…but massive de-leveraging is still ongoing…
Source: HFR, Julius Baer
-160
-120
-80
-40
0
40
80
120
160
200
'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08
NNM for hedge funds globally long-... USD bn
3716
59 59 46 3017 13
-31
-152
-160
-120
-80
-40
0
40
80
120
160
200
3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
…and short-term USD bnLEH default LEH default
10
...as is global repatriation trade continues…
Source: US Treasury TIC report, Julius Baer
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08
Net US buying of foreign securities long- USD bn
48
101
7464
90
2
38 31
-88 -83
-100
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
125
3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
…and short-term USD bnLEH default LEH default
11
…hitting EM FX in particularly hard % cumulative change in FX spot rates vs. USD
Note: Month-end data. Source: Datastream, Bloomberg, Julius Baer
% %
Americas
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09
Mexico Brazil ColombiaChile Peru Argentina
Europe
Middle East & Africa%
Asia%
LEH default
LEH default
LEH default
LEH default
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09
Turkey S Africa EgyptMorocco Nigeria Botsw ana
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09
China India S KoreaMalaysia Indonesia Philippines
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09
Poland Hungary Czech RepRussia Ukraine Romania
12 Source: Julius Baer
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Target gross excess return vs. 3m Euribor (%)
Maximum annualised value-at-risk (%), 99% confidence
AbsoluteReturn
AbsoluteReturnPlus
AbsoluteReturn
Emerging
AbsoluteReturn
Defender
Product framework (1/2)Julius Baer fixed income absolute return fund range
13
Product framework (2/2)Julius Baer fixed income absolute return fund range
Absolute ReturnBond Fund Plus
Global Fixed Income
Long/Short
Long/Short
Long/Short
3m Euribor +3-5% p.a.
VaR 10% 99% Confidence Level
Max negative mDur -6yrs Max positive mDur +12yrs Min ⅔ Cash Bonds Max 50% Sub-InvGrade Max 30% Convertibles Max 5% Distressed No Shorting of Cash Bonds No financial Leverage No direct Equity Exp.
Absolute ReturnBond Fund
Global Fixed Income
Long/Short
Long/Short
Long/Short
VaR 6% 99% Confidence Level
3m Euribor +2-3% p.a.
Positive Returns across Market Cycles
Positive Returns across Market Cycles
Max negative mDur -3yrs Max positive mDur +12yrs Min ⅔ Cash Bonds Max 50% Sub-InvGrade Max 30% Convertibles Max 5% Distressed No Shorting of Cash Bonds No financial Leverage No direct Equity Exp.
Absolute ReturnEmerging Bond Fund
Global EM Fixed Income
Long/Short
Long/Short
Long/Short
VaR 8% 99% Confidence Level
3m Euribor +3-4% p.a.
Positive Returns across Market Cycles
Max negative mDur -6yrs Max positive mDur +12yrs Min ⅔ Cash Bonds Max 25% Convertibles
No Shorting of Cash Bonds No financial Leverage No direct Equity Exp.
Product
Investment universe
Rates exposure
Credit exposure
FX exposure
Return target
Risk budget
Investmentrestrictions
Investment aim
Absolute ReturnBond Fund Defender
Global Fixed Income
Long/Short
Long/Short
Long/Short
VaR 4% 99% Confidence Level
3m Euribor +¾-1¼% p.a.
Positive Returns across Market Cycles
Max negative mDur -2yrs Max positive mDur +5yrs Min ⅔ Cash Bonds Max 50% Sub-InvGrade Max 30% Convertibles Max 5% Distressed No Shorting of Cash Bonds No financial Leverage No direct Equity Exp.
Augustus Asset Managers Augustus Asset Managers Julius BaerInvestment adviser Augustus Asset Managers
31st May 2006 30th April 2004 31st December 2007Launch date 31st July 2008
14
Performance summary as of February 27, 2009
Note: All data based on GBP institutional share classes. Source: Lipper Hindsight, Julius Baer
% Net total return
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09
Fund GBP 3-month Libor Lipper Global Money Market GBP Lipper Global GBP Short Term
Absolute Return BF Def.
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
20.0
24.0
28.0
32.0
Apr-04 Jun-05 Aug-06 Oct-07 Dec-08
% Net total return
Absolute Return BF % Net Total Return
Absolute Return BF Plus
-2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
15.0
17.5
May-06 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09
15
Team approach reflected in broad-based return profileAnnual performance attribution by main strategy, JB ARBF
Note: Due to possible timing lags between actual and modelled trade flows and corresponding prices paid, model returns may in individual cases marginally divert from actuals. Source: Julius Baer
5817 33 9
20
1314 4
-240
-160
-80
0
80
160
240
320
400
Rates Credit FX EQ-linked
-64
62
133
-104
60
-44 -37
-30
-240
-160
-80
0
80
160
240
320
400
Rates Credit FX EQ-linked
71
349
75 60
59
52
3835
-240
-160
-80
0
80
160
240
320
400
Rates Credit FX EQ-linked
172
6
-165
71
130
39
-64
71
-240
-160
-80
0
80
160
240
320
400
Rates Credit FX EQ-linked
208
2989
179
117
18
136
83
-240
-160
-80
0
80
160
240
320
400
Rates Credit FX EQ-linked
Emerging marketsCore markets
+859 bps
2005
+260 bps
2006
+737 bps
2007Basis points
-23 bps
2008 2009 (YTD)
+167 bps
16
Important legal Information
This document is intended for circulation to Professional Clients only.
The document has been issued by Julius Baer International Limited, 64 St James’s Street, London SW1A 1NF, which is regulated and authorised by the Financial Services Authority.
The information contained in this document has been produced solely for the use of the person to whom it is given or sent and may not be reproduced, copied or given, in whole or in part, to any other person. It is not an invitation to subscribe and is by way of information only. This document is subject to change without notice.
Source of data: Julius Baer (unless otherwise stated). Nothing in this document should be construed as investment advice nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy shares. Any research or analysis used in the preparation of this document is based upon sources believed to be reliable but no representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of those sources. Any opinions, estimates or forecasts are subject to change at any time. Companies of Julius Baer Group, their employees or associates may from time to time hold shares in one or more of the funds mentioned herein.
Past performance is not indicative of future performance. The value of investments may be subject to fluctuations and, under certain circumstances, investors may not get back the full amount invested. Changes in foreign-exchange rates may also cause the value of investments to go up or down. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please consult your tax or investment advisor before investing according to this presentation.
Julius Baer Multistock and Julius Baer Multibond are recognised collective investment schemes under section 264 of the UK Financial Services and Markets Act 2000, and potential investors in the United Kingdom are advised that the protections available under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme are not available for investments made in these funds. Julius Baer Multistock and Julius Baer Multibond are umbrella funds with segregated liability between subfunds. Shares in Julius Baer Multistock and Julius Baer Multibond are not available for sale in any state or jurisdiction in which such sale would be prohibited.
Before making an investment decision, investors should read the prospectus for Julius Baer Multistock or Julius Baer Multibond umbrella. Copies of the respective prospectus and financial statements can be obtained from Julius Baer International Limited, 64 St James’s Street, London SW1A 1NF (authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority).
17
Disclaimer
This document is issued in the UK by Augustus Asset Managers Limited (“Augustus”), which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the UK (“FSA”).
This document is directed only at (a) eligible counterparties or professional clients for the purposes of the FSA’s Rules, and (b) persons outside the United Kingdom.
The investment described herein has not been registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended (the “Company Act”), and the shares therein have not been registered under the Securities Act of 1933 (“1933 Act”), or any state or foreign securities laws. These interests will be offered and sold only to “qualified purchasers” for purposes of section 3(c)(7) of the Company Act, who are “accredited investors” as defined in Regulation D under the 1933 Act.
To the extent that this document is issued by Augustus, the investments referred to in it are only available only to the above persons, and no other person should rely on this document. Shares in the Fund are not available for sale in any state or jurisdiction in which such sale would be prohibited. Subscriptions will only be received and shares issued on the basis of the current prospectus for the Fund.
This document is intended solely for the use of the person to whom it is sent and may not be reproduced or distributed to any other person. The content of this document is based upon sources of information believed to be reliable. However, no representation, undertaking or warranty (express or implied) is given as to its accuracy or completeness, and the content may change without notice.
18
Stephen MooreHead Sales UK (Asset Management)
Rainer N GruenigHead Business Development UK (Asset Management)
Julius Baer International Limited64 St James's StreetLondon SW1A 1NF Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Registered in England, Company No. 01120330
Direct Telephone: +44 (0) 20 7166 8176Mobile: +44 (0) 77 4777 5236E-Mail address: [email protected]
Direct Telephone: +44 (0) 20 7166 8180Mobile: +44 (0) 78 9668 2449E-Mail address: [email protected]
Phone: +440(0) 20 7166 8100Fax: +44 (0) 20 7629 5931
19
AUGUSTUS ASSET MANAGERS LIMITEDBevis Marks House
24 Bevis MarksLondon, EC3A 7NR
Telephone +44 (0) 20 7711 6666Fax +44 (0) 20 7929 1030
Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority