Introduction to

Stock Trading Based on Big Money Movement

by Toto Tjung Independent Stock Trader fb : tototjung@gmail.com

PrimaTradeIDX@yahoogroups.com Twitter @tototjung

+6281808579138

Table of

Contents

Stock Trading Goal Stock Trading Approaches

Fundamental Analysis Technical Analysis Trading by Rumor Astrology Trading By Big Money

Movement

Why Big Money How to trace Big Money Basic Rule How to Use Study Case

Stock Trading Goal

#3

Got profit by Selling Stock price above it's buying price

Stock Trading Approaches

#4

1. Fundamentals Analysis2. Technical Analysis3. Rumor4. Astrology5. Big Money Movement

(Bandarmology)

Fundamentals Analysis

#5

Advantages Based on Company Financial

Performances and Management Used a lot By Big Trading Company to

forecast target price With Good Audit and Control, difficult to

cheat with the data without anybody know

Fundamentals Analysis

#6

Disadvantages Easy to manipulate, especially in

Indonesia Difficult to understand for average traders Long term investment. Need another tools

to know the entry point

Technical Analysis

#7

Advantages Relatively easy to learn Relatively easy to interpret Popular now amongst Indonesian Broker

Company

Technical Analysis

#8

Disadvantages Difficult to choose the best Technical

Indicator Sometimes Signal Contradict Each

Other Sometimes Signal triggered late after

price already discounted the signal Tends to get trapped in forever try to

make the best TA indicator

#9

Statistics Fact about TA

StrategyNumber of

TradesP/L in Pips P/L in %

Max Drawdown

BuyAndHold 1 -3,416.66 -3.42 25.44Bollinger Bands 20 -19,535.97 -19.54 37.99

MACD 110 3,937.67 3.94 27.55Parabolic SAR 128 -9,746.29 -9.75 21.96

Stochastic 74 -20,716.40 -20.72 30.64

RSI 8 -18,716.69 -18.72 34.57

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo 53 30,341.22 30.34 19.51

http://www.babypips.com/school/what-is-the-most-profitable-indicator.html#ixzz2X0je55mi

Testing Result on daily EUR/USD with 5 years data

#10

Which TA ?

#11

Trading By Rumor

Buy on Rumor, Sell on news Rumor can be wrong The closer We to the source, the bigger

chance We can get gain from the rumor (and vice versa)

Retail traders mostly hear the rumors very late

Where are We in the circle of rumor?

#12

Trading by Rumor, VIVA Case

#13

Trading by Rumor, BBKP Case

#14

Astrology

Difficult to explain by logic Superstitious Self Fulfilling prophecy? Indonesian like to interest about their

zodiac and its affect to their daily life

#15

Trading By Big Money Movement

Price movement is triggered by Supply and Demand More Buyer than Seller -> Price will be increased More Seller than Buyer -> Price will be decreased

Big/Smart Money will have more power to push price according to their position

Follow that Big/Smart Money Sometimes, Big Money can also make

wrong decision creating losing trade

#16

Why Big Money?

1. Size does matters2. Price Change is triggered by Supply

and Demand3. Big Money have better link from

insider to receive a rumor before it went to public

#17

Why Big Money?

4. They have more accurate access to company financial data (better Fundamental Analyst and auditor, better links to cross check Company financial reports (Insider, Bloomberg terminal, etc)

5. Most of them afford to hire expert Technical Analyst to execute their trading plan

6. Can be used as GOOD confirmation for ALL other methods (FA, TA, Rumor, Astrology, etc)

#18

How to Trace Big Money ?

Technical Analysis Indicators (ADX) Using OHLCV as source of their

mathematical calculations Tends to be at the same direction

with Price Movements Easy to manipulate for short

timeframe ADX, Volume Accumulation, etc

#19

How to Trace Big Money ?

Trade Transaction Data Analysis Based on detail per trading

transaction done for that stocks Apply assumption/heuristics to

filter which one is Big Money and which one is Retail

#20

How to Trace Big Money ?

Foreign Inflow/Outflow Suitable for Indonesian Company

with big dependency to foreign investors/traders to move the market

Represent also smart money Not accurate for low volume

Stocks

#21

How to Trace Big Money ?Foreign Inflow/Outflow on IHSG

#22

How to Trace Big Money ?

Broker Transaction Analysis, Tlot vs Blot, etc Represent also smart money Can be used for all markets Difficult to get and analyze the

data automatically

#23

How to Trace Big Money ?Top 5 Broker Transaction on IHSG

#24

Basic Rule

1) Use Line Chart to plot total accumulation and distribution for each day per stock

2) Smallest timeframe is daily; the bigger the timeframe, the more valid the data

3) Trade at the same direction with Trend, Even when trend is applied to accumulation chart

#25

Basic Rule

4) Apply Moving Averages to the accumulation line chart to get the trend MA(ACUM, 5) for short term accumulation

trend MA(ACUM, 20) for medium term

accumulation trend

#26

Basic Rule

5) For simplification, We use MA theory to define uptrend and downtrend Uptrend when short MA is above long MA Downtrend when short MA is below long MA

6) Minor drop on uptrend accumulation doesn't means uptrend price will change to downtrend

#27

Basic Rule

7) Minor increase on downtrend accumulation doesn't means downtrend price will change to uptrend

8) Uptrend in accumulation will not suddenly change price trend to uptrend. Sometime price will stay sideways for a while before start to increase

#28

Basic Rule

9) Downtrend in accumulation will not suddenly change price trend to downtrend. Sometime price will still sideways for a while before start to decrease

10)Can be used as divergence indicator11)Don't buy on downtrend Accumulation.

Don't Sell on uptrend Accumulation 12)Price Discounts Everything

#29

How to Use

Simple Buy Indicator : Buy when both Close and High is BIGGER than previous day Buy = Close > Ref(Close, -1) and High > Ref(High, -1);

PlotShapes(Buy*shapeUpArrow,colorGreen,Layer=0,L);

Combined with Accumulation : Buy = Close > Ref(Close, -1) and High > Ref(High, -1) and Acum > MA(Acum, 5) and MA(Acum, 5) > MA(Acum, 20); PlotShapes(Buy*shapeUpArrow,colorGreen,Layer=0,L);

#30

Study Case : ACES

DON’T BUY DURING

DISTRIBUTION

#31

Study Case : PGAS

DON’T BUY DURING

DISTRIBUTION

#32

Study Case : ADRO

#33

Study Case : VIVA

April 2013, Big Rumor that HT or CT bought VIVA for around Rp.1200 per share, compared to that time market price (Rp.600 - Rp.650). Price jump up around 15% at one day on April 12nd. But after that start to run on downtrend. Latest another rumor, only ANTV finally sold (also with questionable price). But now, big money start to accumulate.

#34

Study Case : VIVABig Money View

#35

Study Case : BBKP

Big rumor (or fact?) that BBKP sold for Rp.1050 per shares at early June 2013. at June 11st, price jump to its high 800, only to decrease after that day and resume it's downtrend

#36

Study Case : BBKPBig Money View

#37

Study Case : CTRS

Big Uptrend with very good accumulation since 2012. First week April 2013, CTRS announced Private placement caused small correction, only to resume the uptrend after that

#38

Study Case : CTRSBig Money View

#39

Study Case : BUMI

Used to be everybody's favorite. Even until now sometime still catch trader's attention by it's CA.

#40

Study Case : BUMIBig Money View

#41

Study Case : BJTM

Big price increase for this year dividend supported by good accumulation by big money. And then major correction by profit taking after dividend expired. Now the price trend is sideways even that smart money continue their accumulation after correction done

#42

Study Case : BJTMBig Money View

#43

Study Case : BKSL

Classic example how big money accumulate the stock for around two months during November and December 2012 before the price jumped up from 190 to 260 only in 2.5 weeks

#44

Study Case : BKSLBig Money View

#45

Study Case : Ciputra Group

Time by time analysis how the stocks from same owner, same sector can have different cycle on price movements and accumulations.

#46

Study Case : Ciputra GroupBig Money View

#47

Study Case : MPPA

Bullish stocks not confirmed by Accumulation by Big Money.

#48

Study Case : MPPABig Money View

#49

Study Case : COWL

Bullish stocks not confirmed by Accumulation by Big Money.

#50

Study Case : COWLBig Money View

Thank You