Reversing the Middle Class Jobs Deficit

  • View
    6.100

  • Download
    8

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

Alan B. Kruegar, Chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisers, spoke on reversing the middle class jobs deficit on April 26, 2012 at Columbia University

Transcript

PowerPoint Presentation

Reversing the Middle Class Jobs Deficit

Alan B. Krueger

Chairman

Council of Economic Advisers

April 26, 2012

Figure 1: The 2000s Saw Far Weaker Job Creation Than Each of the Previous Five Decades

1

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; CEA calculations.

Figure 2: Real Earnings for the Median Year-Round Worker Stagnated

2

Note: Earnings adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers.

Source: CEA calculations based on Current Population Survey March Supplement.

Figure 3: The Share of Workers Earning a Middle-Class Income Has Been in Decline Over the Past Three Decades

3

Source: CEA calculations based on Current Population Survey March Supplement.

Figure 4: Economic Growth Turned Positive in 2009:Q3 and Has Continued for 10 Straight Quarters

4

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Shading denotes NBER recession.

Figure 5: Jobs Have Been Growing Since February 2010

5

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Shading denotes NBER recession.

Figure 6: Job Growth in the Current Recovery is Closely Tracking the Early 1990s Recovery

6

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; CEA calculations.

Figure 7: Strong Economic Growth in the 1990s Helped Lift Incomes for All Quintiles

7

Source: Census Bureau; CEA calculations.

Figure 8: The Manufacturing Sector Provides a Path to the Middle Class, Especially for Workers with an Associates Degree or Less

8

Note: The median annual earnings is based on full-time year-round workers.

Source: CEA calculations based on Current Population Survey 2011 Annual Social and Economic Supplement.

Figure 9: Manufacturing Employment Fell Beneath Its Normal Bounds Early in the 2000s

9

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CEA calculations.

Figure 10: Domestic U.S. Manufacturers Are Increasingly Competitive

10

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, International Labor Comparisons; CEA Calculations.

Figure 11: Share of Population with a Post-Secondary Degree in 2009 by Birth Cohort

11

Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Education at a Glance 2011.

Figure 12: College Completion Rate by Income Quartile

12

Source: Bailey and Dynarski (2011) based on National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1979 and 1997. College completion is measured by age 25.

0204060801001201401601801950196019701980199020002010

1950s+24%1960s+31%1970s+27%1980s+20%1990s+20%2000s

Nonfarm Payroll Employment

Millions

Jan.2000-

Dec. 2007

+5.7%

32,00034,00036,00038,00040,00042,00044,00046,000198119861991199620012006

Real MedianEarnings for Full-Time Year Round Workers, 1981 -2010

2010Dollars 2010

66.164.860.259.5565860626466681980199020002010

Share of Full-Time Year Round Workers With Annual Earnings Within 50Percent of the Median

Percent0

0.53.63.01.7-1.81.3-3.7-8.9-6.7-0.71.73.83.93.82.52.30.41.31.83.0

-10-8-6-4-202462007:Q12008:Q12009:Q12010:Q12011:Q1

Real GDP Growth

Annualized Quarterly Percent Change

2011:Q4

-900-750-600-450-300-1500150300-900-750-600-450-300-1500150300Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12

Change in Private Nonfarm Payrolls

Thousands,Seasonally Adjusted

Feb-10

9698100102104106108

-36-30-24-18-12-6Trough61218243036

Private Payroll EmploymentDuring Recoveries

NBER-Defined Cycle Trough = 100

Current (June 2009Trough)Months from Trough19912001

-0.4%0.1%0.3%0.6%1.2%Lowest fifth2nd fifthMid fifth4th fifthTop fifth-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.5Percent

Annual Growth Rate of Real Income Across the Family Income Distribution,1979 to 2010

2.2% 2.1% 2.2% 2.3% 3.2%

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0Lowest fifth2nd fifthMid fifth4th fifthTop fifth

Annual Growth Rate of Real Income Across the Family Income Distribution, 1995-2000

Percent

Manufacturing

56%

Manufacturing

63%

Non-

Manufacturing

47%Non-

Manufacturing

49%

0102030405060708090100

All WorkersAssociate's Degree or Less

Percent of Workers With Annual Earnings Within 50 Percent of the Median, 2010

Percent

101214161820221965197019751980198519901995200020052010

Manufacturing Employment

Millions

Dec. 2000-Dec. 2007

-3.4 million

Dec. 2007-Jun.2009

-2.0million

Jan. 2010-Mar.2012

+470,000

-23.0-10.82.12.914.117.120.840.844.167.679.0

-40-20020406080100

SingaporeJapanU.K.KoreaSwedenGermanyFranceCanadaItaly

Changein Manufacturing Unit Labor Costs, 2002-2010

Percent

Taiwan UnitedStates

010203040506070

PortugalMexicoTurkeyItalyCzech Rep.Slovak Rep.PolandKoreaGreeceAustriaHungarySpainChileSloveniaFranceIrelandIcelandBelgiumLuxembourgGermanyDenmarkSwedenNorwayJapanNetherlandsSwitzerlandU.K.FinlandAustraliaEstoniaNew ZealandCanadaUnited States

Share of 55-64 Year Olds With a Post-Secondary Degree

Percent

010203040506070

TurkeyItalyMexicoCzech Rep.Slovak Rep.AustriaPortugalHungaryGermanyGreeceSloveniaChilePolandIcelandEstoniaSpainFinlandSwitzerlandNetherlandsUnited StatesSwedenBelgiumIsraelFranceDenmarkAustraliaU.K.LuxembourgNew ZealandNorwayIrelandJapanCanadaKorea

Share of 25-34 Year Olds With a Post-Secondary Degree

Percent

0.090.210.320.540.050.140.170.3600.250.50.75Lowest Quartile2nd Quartile3rd QuartileTop Quartile1979 to 1982 birth cohorts1961 to 1964 birth cohorts

Fraction of Students Completing a Bachelor's Degree, by Income Quartile and Birth Year