Raimondas Kuodis apie finansializaciją

Geras/blogas kreditas, ekonominis augimas,

turto kainos, nelygybė:

neortodoksinis* požiūris

+ pasiūlymai ESCB monetarinei/makroprudencinei analizei

Raimondas Kuodis

2017 m. sausis

* neortodoksinis = ne vyraujantis

2017.01.11 www.ekonomika.org 1

Work in progress; comments are welcome Benjamin Friedman (2009): “an important question—

which no one seems interested in addressing— is what fraction of the economy’s total returns … is absorbed up front by the financial industry.” Kada mažakraujystė pereina į intoksikaciją?

Turinys 1. Kredito svarba

2. Kreditas kreditui nelygus

3. (Gero/blogo) kredito poveikis

4. Optimalus kredito augimas

5. Toksiniai kredito procesai

6. Finansializacija ir nelygybė

7. Renta, rentiers, palūkanų esmė

8. Išvados + pasiūlymai


I. KREDITO SVARBA

Kredito svarba • Bent jau nuo Marx‘o M-C-M‘ žinoma, kodėl pinigų

kiekis (ir skola modernioje pinigų sistemoje) turi augti, kad ekonomika vystytųsi.

• Priešingu atveju, nebus, kad M‘ > M, o tai pagrindinis įmonių tikslas...

• Tą teigė Shumpeter‘is, jo mokinys Minsky (1982):

“[i]t follows that over a period during which economic growth takes place, at least some sectors finance a part of their spending by emitting debt or selling assets.”


Kreditas Indėliai Daugiau

transakcijų Didesnis

BVP (galbūt)

Kredito svarba • Federal Reserve Board (2013): “analysts have found that over long periods of time there

has been a fairly close relationship between the growth of debt of the nonfinancial sectors and aggregate economic activity.”

• Schumpeter (1934):

“ the new combination of means of production and credit are the fundamental phenomena of economic development.“

• Ang (2009) apibendrina empirines studijas: – paprastai daroma regresija tarp kredito/BVP santykio

ir BVP augimo tempo;

– išvada: kredito augimas gali būti susijęs su našumą didinančiom investicijomis.


Mainstream treatment of debt Bernanke (2000), Essays on the Great Depression, p. 24, on Irving Fisher’s

(1933) debt deflation theory (Fisher, 1933): – Fisher’s idea was less influential in academic circles, though, because of the

counterargument that debt-deflation represented no more than a redistribution from one group (debtors) to another (creditors). Absent implausibly large differences in marginal spending propensities among the groups, it was suggested, pure redistributions should have no significant macro-economic effects…

Paul Krugman: “(Steve) Keen then goes on to assert that lending is, by definition (at least as I understand it), an addition to aggregate demand. I guess I don’t get that at all. If I decide to cut back on my spending and stash the funds in a bank, which lends them out to someone else, this doesn’t have to represent a net increase in demand. Yes, in some (many) cases lending is associated with higher demand, because resources are being transferred to people with a higher propensity to spend; but Keen seems to be saying something else, and I’m not sure what. I think it has something to do with the notion that creating money = creating demand, but again that isn’t right in any model I understand.” http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/27/minksy-and-methodology-wonkish/


http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/27/minksy-and-methodology-wonkish/







II. KREDITAS KREDITUI

NELYGUS

Kreditas: svarbu kam • Marx‘as (Capital, 30 sk. “Money-Capital and Real Capital” išskyrė:

– “credit, whose volume grows with the growing volume of value of production” versus “the plethora of moneyed capital —a separate phenomenon alongside industrial production”.

• Schumpeter‘is (1917) išskyrė: – ‘capital markets’ for stocks, bonds, mortgages, real estate and land

versus ‘circulating money’ in the real sector.

• Keynes‘as (1930) išskyrė: – ‘money in the financial circulations’ versus ‘money in the industrial

circulations’.

• Tobin‘as (1984): – “… we are throwing more and more of our resources, including the

cream of our youth, into financial activities remote from the production of goods and services”.

• Minsky (1987): – ‘money manager capitalism’ (kylantis 1980-ais 1990-ais), undermined

capitalism’s viability by redirecting investment to financial, not real investments and capital formation.

• etc.


Kreditas: svarbu kam • Ši funkcinė kredito krypčių diferencijacija iš esmės

IGNORUOJMA vyraujančių neoklasikinių ekonomistų

• Gaila, bet iš esmės ir ECB: kreditas auga? Valio! O koks to kredito poveikis ekonominiam augimui/užimtumui...?


Kreditas: svarbu kam • BIS: nukrypimai nuo prieškrizinio (menkai su gamyba

susijusio) kredito (finansializacinio) trendo? Blogai!


Kreditas: svarbu kam

• Neortodoksai (Richard Werner, Michael Hudson, Dirk Bezemer, Thomas Palley etc.):

– pilna kredito priemonių, kurios nieko bendra neturi su gamyba;

– daugiausiai tai būsto kreditai, firmų skolinimasis ne gamybai vystyti/užimtumui didinti;

• Funkcinė kredito klasifikacija padėtų paaiškinti tariamas „mįsles“


Kreditas: svarbu kam • Bet kreditas gali būti “išsunkiantis” ekonomiką (ir čia

net neina kalba apie lupikiškus „greituosius kreditus“)!!!

• Palley, Epstein, Hein... : “Financialization“

• Benjamin Friedman (2009): “an important question—which no one seems interested in addressing—is what fraction of the economy’s total returns … is absorbed up front by the financial industry.”

• Randall Wray: 40% JAV korporacijų pelno finansų sektoriuje? „Tai – vagystė“.


III. (GERO/BLOGO) KREDITO POVEIKIS

Geras/blogas kreditas


Kredito „atspalviai“

„Geras“: gamybai vystyti „Vidutinis“: vartojimui

„Prastas“: esamam (finansiniam ar NT) turtui

pirkti (akcijų buybacks, leveraged buyouts...)

„Blogas“: Ponzi finansavimas (paskolų evergreening...)

Gero/blogo kredito poveikis Kreditas gamybai vystyti koreliuoja su nominaliu BVP

Kreditas būstui daugiau koreliuoja su būsto kainom

Šaltinis: Bezemer (2012)


Kredito ciklai: skirtingas poveikis skolai Kreditas gamybai:

1. įmonė skolinasi investicijoms, algoms ir apyvartinėms 2. parduoda pagaminta produktą, grąžina kreditą = (mikro) įmonės skola nelinkusi augti greičiau už gamybą, = (makro) skolos/BVP santykis neauga, svyruoja ~1

Kreditas būstui: 1. NŪ perka būstą 2. palūkanų ir pagrindinės sumos mokėjimai sumažina NŪ

išlaidas kitoms prekėms = (mikro) ilgam padidėja NŪ skola = (makro) didėja skolos/BVP santykis = (makro) ekonomika „apsunksta“ nuo skolos, nes palūkanų

maržos ir palūkanų už atsiradusius indėlių gavėjai – turtingesni NŪ

= (makro) didėja finansų sistemos trapumas, ypač po kredito/NT kainų bumų.


“The great mortgaging”


• http://voxeu.org/article/great-mortgaging

http://voxeu.org/article/great-mortgaging



Kredito ciklai: skirtingas poveikis skolai Kreditas vartojimui:

yra gana brangus, bet bent jau yra gamybinio sektoriaus pajamos

bet irgi apsunkina ekonomiką, nes vietoje algų didėjimo „let them eat credit“ (R. Rajan)


Kapitalo pelno „ekonomika“ Bezemer (2012):

Loans for investment in asset and property markets are different, and this accounts for their impact on debt-to-GDP ratios.

The underlying reason is that such FIRE-sector investment by itself is a zero-sum game: for someone to make a capital gain, someone else must either give up income or go into debt (or both): If a loan is invested in the financial and property markets, this will push

up the price of financial assets and create asset wealth for the owners. This capital gain is realized upon sale, and after repaying the loan, the

investor may hold a profit. But at the other end of the sale transaction will be a new investor, who

either took out a loan or drained liquidity from the real sector in order to finance the purchase.

In aggregate, the total realized capital gain will be equal to the combined increase in indebtedness and in liquidity taken from the real sector in order to finance the increased asset price.

The assets may be traded many times by, and each time the asset may increase in value – but in aggregate, the debt and/or drain from the real sector grows in parallel.

Willem Buiter: „Housing Wealth Isn't Wealth“


Finansų sektoriaus santykinis augimas Bezemer (2012):

So financial markets can grow relative to GDP by absorbing more liquidity created in the real sector, or by increasing indebtedness.

Either is unsustainable in the sense that it must, with axiomatic certainty, at some point end.

Still, such (ultimately) unsustainable debt growth may be kept going over decades by expanding the stock of financial assets and instruments relative to the size of the economy.


IV. OPTIMALUS KREDITO

AUGIMAS

Finansų sektoriaus santykinis augimas Taigi, bendrojo kredito augimo poveikio

ekonominiam augimui ženklas a priori yra neaiškus (ambiguous)

Priklauso nuo: skolos/BVP santykio

kredito funkcinės krypties

Prie kokio kredito/BVP santykio tikėtis maksimalaus ekonominio augimo?

R. Werner (2005): visas kreditas C = Cr + Cf r – realiam sektoriui; f – finansiniam


Finansų sektoriaus santykinis augimas Regresija: ΔBVP/BVP = k + a(C/BVP) + bX + e

a atspindi d(C/BVP) efektą d(ΔBVP/BVP) a = d(ΔBVP/BVP) / d(C/BVP) = d(ΔBVP) / d(C)

d(C) yra svertinis vidurkis: a = w1*[d(ΔBVP) / d(Cr)] + w2*[d(ΔBVP) / d(Cf)]

Ilgu laikotarpiu d(Cr) iš esmės lygus d(BVP), o d(Cf) menkai koreliuoja su d(BVP) – pvz., per housing wealth channel, bet elastingumas ~0,1.

Tada a yra maksimalus, kai w2 ≈ 0; Cf ≈ 0, o C/BVP ≈ 100%, ką, atrodo, patvirtina ir istoriniai duomenys (žr. toliau)


Finansų sektoriaus santykinis augimas Easterly et al (2000): volatility of growth tends

to decrease and then increase with increasing financial depth.

Mapping the credit-to-GDP ratio on a horizontal axis against the volatility of growth on the vertical axis, they find that the turning point - the bottom of the U – is around value 1 (or 100%) for the credit-to-GDP ratio.


Finansų sektoriaus santykinis augimas

• Arcand et al (2011), ‘Too Much Finance?’, www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2012/wp12161.pdf: neigiamas NŪ+F kredito/BVP santykio poveikis ekonominiam augimui nuo ~100% BVP


http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2012/wp12161.pdf











Finansų sektoriaus santykinis augimas

• Cecchetti et al (2011) ‘The Real Effects of Debt’, http://www.bis.org/publ/othp16.pdf: – at moderate levels, debt improves welfare and enhances growth. But

high levels can be damaging. When does debt go from good to bad?

– beyond a certain level, debt is a drag on growth...

– ... for corporate debt, it is around 90% of GDP.


http://www.bis.org/publ/othp16.pdf

http://www.bis.org/publ/othp16.pdf

V. TOKSINIAI KREDITO

PROCESAI

Kur eina „prastasis“ kreditas


„Prastasis“ ir „blogasis“ kreditas

Skola finansuojamas M&A bumas

Akcijų buy-backs Būsto bumas Commons privatizacija Ponzi finansavimas

(paskolų evergreening, zombiai bankai ir įmonės)

Procesas: M&A


Iniciatorius: agresyvus

perėmimas

Investicinis bankas gauna

riebius komisinius

Perimta įmonė užskolinama, lėšos plaukia

bankams

Įmonė sumažina įsipareigojimus darbuotojams, mažina I, R&D

Iniciatorius perparduoda

įmonę su dideliu pelnu

Procesai: akcijų bumai/reformos/buy-backs


Kredito augimas, pvz.

būstui

Būsto pardavėjai,

statytojai gauna pinigų

Dalis jų nukeliauja į akcijų rinką

+ Fully-funded pensijų

„reformos“

Akcijų rinkos kyla, 1% turtėja

CEO kompensuojami

stock options

CEO atsiranda negeros

paskatos pakelt akcijų kainą

CEO nusprendžia supirkti savo

įmonės akcijas

Tą daro paprastai už

paskolas

Įmonė užskolinama,

CEO praturtėja

Procesai: būsto kainų bumas


Bankai (dereguliavimas,

Basel w) etc.: pradinis impulsas

Būsto kainos didėja

Kaimynas praturtėjo iš

būsto perpardavimo

Įsilieja kiti, norintys kapitalo

pelno

Burbulas, bankų pelnai, bonusai, ūkio išsunkimas, finansų krizė...

Procesas: commons privatizacija


Bendruomeninis nemokamai naudojamas

turtas

Atsiranda gudrutis

„viarslininkas“

Bendruomeninis turtas

privatizuojamas

Banko paskola, šlagbaumas (tollbooth)

Renta viarslininkui,

palūkanos bankui, visuomenė moka

Procesas: Ponzi finansavimas

• In Italy, where two decades of economic stagnation have created a long line of barely breathing companies, Feltrinelli, one of the country’s largest booksellers, stands out.

• Since 2012, the company has chalked up three consecutive years of losses totaling nearly 11 million euros ($12.4 million).

• Even so, late last year, Feltrinelli was able to secure a fresh €50 million line of credit from a syndicate that included two of Italy’s largest banks, UniCredit and Intesa Sanpaolo, at an interest rate below what top-rated companies in Europe were paying.

• As Italy and Europe more broadly struggle to come to grips with an escalating problem with bad loans, a new paper by economists connected to the Center for Economic Policy Research, a European policy shop, highlights the extent to which Italy’s main banks — known to be the weakest in the eurozone in terms of cash reserves — have stepped up their lending to the country’s most troubled companies.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/19/business/dealbook/italian-banks-continue-to-lend-to-stagnant-companies-as-debt-pile-mounts.html?action=click&contentCollection=DealBook&module=RelatedCoverage&region=Marginalia&pgtype=article


Finansializacija Privačios skolos augimas negali tęstis be galo

Ekonominio augimo krizė Blogos paskolos

Bankai jas evergreenin‘a,

„teismo valanda“ stumiama tolyn

http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~sternfin/vacharya/public_html/pdfs/Acharya et al Whatever it takes.pdf



























Procesas: Ponzi finansavimas • Viral V. Acharya�, Tim Eisert�, Christian Eufinger, and Christian Hirsch (2014) Whatever it takes: The

Real Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy, http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~sternfin/vacharya/public_html/pdfs/Acharya%20et%20al%20Whatever%20it%20takes.pdf

• On July 26, 2012 the ECB’s president Mario Draghi announced to do “whatever it takes” to preserve the Euro and subsequently launched the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) Program, which led to a significant increase in the value of sovereign bonds issued by European periphery countries.

• As a result, the OMT announcement indirectly recapitalized periphery country banks due to their significant holdings of these bonds. However, the regained stability of the European banking sector has not fully transferred into economic growth.

• We show that this development can at least partially be explained by zombie lending motives of banks that still remained undercapitalized after the OMT announcement. While banks that benefited from the announcement increased their overall loan supply, this supply was mostly targeted towards low-quality firms with pre-existing lending relationships with these banks.

• As a result, there was no positive impact on real economic activity like employment or investment. Instead, these firms mainly used the newly acquired funds to build up cash reserves.

• Finally, we document that creditworthy firms in industries with a prevalence of zombie firms suffered significantly from the credit misallocation, which slowed down the economic recovery.





VI. FINANSIALIZACIJA IR

NELYGYBĖ

Naujas, netvarus ciklas


Stagnant median real wages; widening inequality

AD supported by borrowing/asset

price inflation

Full employment abandoned

Sluggish investment growth

Slower productivity

growth

Financializacija: pajamų perskirstymas


Source: Palley, T. (2013), Financialization, Palgrave.

GDP by Income

Capital

+

Profits of financial sector +

Profits of non-financial sector

-

Labour

-

Managers' share

+

Workers' share

-

Finansializacija ir nelygybė


Source: Bezemer, D. (2012).

VII. RENTA, RENTIER,

PALŪKANŲ ESMĖ

Ne primityvusis „turtingi“ vs. „vargšai“


Dideles pajamas gaunantys

vs.

Nedideles pajamas gaunantys

Nepelnytai Pelnytai

Dideles pajamas gaunantys

Nedideles pajamas gaunantys

Renta, taupymas, investicijos • Michael Hudson:

– renta – tai ne pajamos

– bet Nacionalinėse sąskaitose tokio išskyrimo nėra

– atseit, „visos pajamos vienodai gerbtinos“

• Neortodoksai: – moderniose ekonomikose palūkanos – ne „auka už susilaikymą“ (nuo grūdų sėklos suvalgymo)

– taupymas (S) – tiesiog „ne vartojimas“, tas mažina paklausa, potencialiai ir I

– S, I – daro skirtingi žmonės

– S = I ex post, nes kažkas prarado darbą dėl tavo taupymo, ir negalėjo įgyvendinti savo S plano...

• Didžioji dalis šiuolaikinės privačios pinigų gaminimo mašinos generuoja rentą

• Teigiamos realios palūkanos už indėlius – irgi renta (žr. kitą skaidę, Keynes GT (1936))

• Economists routinely estimate ‘public seigniorage income’, or the amount of money the government earns from its monopoly on issuing bank notes. However they do not estimate ‘private seigniorage’, or the amount of money banks make by issuing deposit money. This is remarkable as, in the Eurozone, banks create about 94% of all money.

• Using the concept of ‘private seigniorage’, an upper limit can be calculated for the Euro Area of (at this moment) about €300 billion, or €1,000 per Euro Area inhabitant, for these rents. www.worldeconomicsassociation.org/newsletterarticles/private-seigniorage/


https://www.worldeconomicsassociation.org/newsletterarticles/private-seigniorage/








Keynes‘as apie palūkanas (GT, 1936) • There is, however, a second, much more fundamental inference from our argument

which has a bearing on the future of inequalities of wealth; namely, our theory of the rate of interest.

• The justification for a moderately high rate of interest has been found hitherto in the necessity of providing a sufficient inducement to save. But we have shown that the extent of effective saving is necessarily determined by the scale of investment and that the scale of investment is promoted by a low rate of interest, provided that we do not attempt to stimulate it in this way beyond the point which corresponds to full employment. Thus it is to our best advantage to reduce the rate of interest to that point relatively to the schedule of the marginal efficiency of capital at which there is full employment.

• Now, though this state of affairs would be quite compatible with some measure of individualism, yet it would mean the euthanasia of the rentier, and, consequently, the euthanasia of the cumulative oppressive power of the capitalist to exploit the scarcity-value of capital. Interest today rewards no genuine sacrifice, any more than does the rent of land. The owner of capital can obtain interest because capital is scarce, just as the owner of land can obtain rent because land is scarce.

www.marxists.org/reference/subject/economics/keynes/general-theory/ch24.htm


https://www.marxists.org/reference/subject/economics/keynes/general-theory/ch24.htm



Fair interest rate • Kuodis (2014): What level of real interest rates is fair? Post Keynesians argue

that 0%, mainly because “profit, not interest, is the reward for enterprise”.

• John Smithin ("The theory of interest rates", an entry by John Smithin, in Philip Arestis, Malcolm Sawyer (eds.) (2006), A Handbook of Alternative Monetary Economics, Edward Elgar): – the real value of existing sums of money, representing past effort in the form of work and

enterprise, would be preserved, but there would be no increase in their value arising from the mere possession of money. Further accumulation would only be possible by contributing further work or enterprise, or assuming further risk. This state of affairs would not, however, really constitute the ‘euthanasia of the rentier’ (Keynes, 1936), as it is not the nominal interest rate that is set at zero but the real rate. Accumulated financial capital at least retains its original real value.

• Real interest rate is mostly a distributional parameter, dear CBs!!!


Kodėl realios palūkanos t/b ~0% • Ulrich’as Bindseil’is (ECB) savo knygose apie pinigų politiką ir jos

įgyvendinimą teigia, kad r > 0, nes kapitalo reali grąža paprastai > 0, todėl galimas arbitražas.

• Galima sugalvoti situaciją, kada fiziškai taip: medis priauga apimties kiekvienais metais

• Tačiau, jo pardavimo kaina po metų yra nežinoma, todėl toks arbitražas g/b nuostolingas.

• Keynes‘as: firmos susiduria su nominalia, o ne realia problema, spręsdamos ar investuoti į kapitalą – nominalios pajamos t/b didesnės už kaštus, o pelnas turi padengti nominalias palūkanas bankui.


VIII. IŠVADOS + PASIŪLYMAI

Nepersiskolinę, bet toksinų daugėja


Išvados • Ką matome/jaučiame? Tai, kad LT privatus sektorius nėra persiskolinęs –

geras dalykas, reikia tai vertinti/saugoti (tiesa, tą procesą nutraukė krizė).

• Kredito poveikis, einant finansializacijos epochai, tampa vis silpnesnis: – reikia vis daugiau „vaistų/narkotikų“, kad paciento būklė „pagerėtų“ – seniau reikėdavo 1%

kredito pokyčio, kad BVP padidėtų 1%, dabar artėjama prie 4:1.

– pagerėjimas būna laikinas, nes „dozė“ apsunkina (eina ne gamybai vystyti, o toksinėm kryptim)

– šis procesas nėra tvarus

– didėjanti nelygybė yra pasekmė

– to politines pasekmes jau pradedam jausti (JAV, Europoj...)

– kuo tai baigsis?

• ECB ir NCB-ai monetarinėje/makroprudencinėj analizėje turėtų labiau žiūrėti funkcinio kredito augimo pasiskirstymo (pilnavertė statistika + kredito toksiškumo indeksas?)... – ... ir skirtingai tuo džiaugtis

– ... reaguoti politikos priemonėm, ... stengtis nespirti problemų kamuolio toliau

– ... šios probleminės sritys ir yra tos, kurioms reikia STRUKTŪRINIŲ REFORMŲ, apie kurias taip mėgsta plepėti (Europos) politikai

***Pabaiga***


Economy & Finance

Raimondas Kuodis apie finansializaciją