PERC Overview

Political & Economic Research Council

October 9, 2008

Overview of PERC: Unleashing the Power of Information for Economic Development

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ABOUT US

PERC (est. 2002) is dedicated to unleashing the power of information for asset building and wealth creation--a phenomenon we call “information led development”

State, federal and international experience and capabilities in: quantitative policy research--economic and social impact analysis; education and outreach; policy development and implementation; and, solutions and applications.

History and Overview

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PERC and Its Components

o Alternative data and widening credit access

o Personal and commercial credit reporting and scoring

o Community economic development performance metrics

o Data privacy/securityo Media concentrationo 3rd party info sharingo Data accuracy and

data integrity

o Information-led development

o Trans-border data flows

o Financial services infrastructure

PERC and Its Components

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PERC Organizational Structure

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Michael A. Turner, Ph.D. (President, Senior Scholar) Dr. Turner currently serves as President and Senior Scholar of the PERC, and was the founder of the Information Policy Institute. After serving as a Graduate Fellow at the Columbia Institute for Tele-Information (CITI) at the Columbia Business School in New York City, he was named Executive Director of the Information Services Executive Council (ISEC). Dr. Turner is a prominent expert on privacy and dataflow issues. He has testified before Congress and numerous state legislatures, and presented studies to a host of government agencies including the FTC, the FRB Board of Governors, the GAO, the FDIC, the White House, and the Council of Economic Advisers. Recently, Dr. Turner recently completed a two-year term on the Department of Homeland Security’s Data Privacy and Integrity Advisory Committee, and he currently serves on the Advisory Board for the Brookings Institution Urban Markets Initiative. Dr. Turner received his Ph.D. from Columbia University in Political Economy, and his B.A. from Miami University in Economics. Turner is an affiliate scholar at the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation.

Joseph W. Duncan, Ph.D. (Director of CCC) Dr. Duncan served as Chief Economist for Dun & Bradstreet, where he oversaw a team of economists generating economic and strategic business analysis for D&B. Duncan has authored several books, contributed to scores of other books and authored hundreds of articles, many of which focus on information economics. Duncan was involved in the crafting of the Privacy Act, was the Chief Statistician of the United States, and helped architect the Standard Industrial Classification system (SIC) for tracking economic data across the entire U.S. economy. He has a long list of formal testimony to Congressional committees. He has been an active consultant since his formal retirement from D&B.

Edward M. Roche, Ph.D. (Director of COGIE) Dr. Roche serves as Director of Scientific Intelligence for the Information Policy Institute. Before he served as Head of Research at the Gartner Group, and with the Conference Board. He has done extensive field work examining Japan's industrial policies towards the computing and telecommunication sectors. He has published several books including Telecommunications and Business Strategy, Managing Information Technology in Multinational Corporations, and his latest book is Computer Crime, Criminal Justice and Information Technology. He has an MA in International Relations from the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, and a doctorate in international relations from Columbia University.

Alyssa Stewart Lee (Executive Director of Markets and Information Nexus (MAIN) at PERC Ms. Lee is the Executive Director at MAIN. Her primary responsibilities include directing activities and projects related to industry investment in urban markets using her knowledge and experience in the strategic use of data to impact decision-making within the public and private realm. Prior to joining MAIN at PERC, Ms. Lee served as the Deputy Director of the Urban Markets Initiative at the Brookings Institution. Ms. Lee holds a Master of City and Regional Planning with distinction from the Georgia Institute of Technology. She received a double Bachelor of Arts in Sociology and Urban Studies from Northwestern University. She has spoken on topics such as land planning policy, corporate development and location trends.

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PERC Staff

PERC Staff

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Robin Varghese, Ph.D. (Director of International Research) Dr. Varghese is Research Director at PERC. He has worked extensively on issues of information privacy and security, data quality, credit reporting and scoring in the US and abroad. He is the co-author of many PERC studies on credit reporting and financial access, and has published in refereed academic journals. Varghese was a senior researcher and Graduate Fellow at the Columbia Institute of Tele-Information (CITI). Varghese received his Ph.D. from Columbia University in 2004. Varghese is an affiliate scholar at the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation.

Patrick Walker, M. Phil (Director of Research) As a Fellow for the Information Policy Institute, Mr. Walker focuses on credit reporting and consumer credit issues. Mr. Walker received a B.A. in Economics from the University of North Florida, and his Masters of Philosophy in Economics from Duke University, where he teaches micro-economics and econometrics.

Katrina Dusek, MA (Fellow) Ms. Dusek is the Special Projects Manager at PERC. She received her BA from the University of Rochester and her MA in Russian and East European Studies from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Her graduate work focused on democratic transition theory. She has experience in policy through her work with the Department of Homeland Security’s Office of International Enforcement. She is currently a Lieutenant in the United States Navy Reserve.

Adam Rodman (Special Projects Manager) Mr. Rodman earned his BS in Chemistry from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill in 2007. He has served as the Special Projects Manager for PERC for 18 months. He plays an integral part in team and project organization, and provides substantial contribution to research efforts.

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Record of Results

PERC Efforts = Policy and Market Outcomes

2002 our research helped to stave off harmful opt-in bill in CA

2003 our report shifted national debate on FCRA from privacy to distributional consequences and helped to make

permanent the 7 preemptive provisions of FCRA with safeguards

2004 helped to counter security fears in offshore outsourcing debate

2004 helped to rationalize free disclosure provisions of FACTA

2005 our outreach led to Parliamentary Inquiry on credit reporting reform in Australia

2006-7 our alternative data studies helped re-start the issue of non-financial payment sharing by recasting it as an issue

of inclusion

2008 our alternative data research was presented through Congressional testimony, and has earned the attention of CA state legislators,

TX Senators, and the Illinois State Treasury

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Speaking Engagements

Figure 1: Number of speaking engagements per year. Note that PERC was in operation for only part of calendar year 2002. Numbers are also conservative estimations and more accurately measure number of outreach trips. For the calendar year 2008, speaking engagements through October 2008 are included.

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Budget

Figure 2: PERC’s operating budget per year. PERC’s budget has grown from $115,000 in FY 2002 to $594,000 in FY 2007. Note that PERC was in operation for only part of fiscal year 2002. Figures for fiscal years 2002-2006 are based on independent 3rd party audits. Fiscal year 2007 audit is still in process, so the figure is based on accounts receivable data. Projection for FY 2008 is derived from accounts receivable and projects under contract.

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Foreign vs. Domestic Projects

Figure 3: Percentage of PERC’s budget coming from international sources. As the Information Policy Institute grew and evolved into PERC, it began to diversify its funding sources. International organizations and governments now make up a significant portion of PERC’s operating budget. The fiscal year 2008 figure is only an approximation based on money already pledged. Figures from FY 2004-2006 from independent third party audits. The estimation from FY2007 is from internal accounts receivable data, as audit for that year is currently underway.

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PERC Expenses FY2006

Figure 4: Breakout of PERC’s fiscal year 2006 expenses. Figures are taken from an independent, 3rd party audit. Administrative costs are the costs of keeping an office, including rent, office supplies, utilities, and shipping. Outside services include fees paid to consultants and other non-financial services, including printing.

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PERC Publications

Figure 5: PERC’s publications. Publications include studies published jointly with another organization. Different versions of the same studies (for example, abridged versions) also count as separate publications. Translations, however, do not. Publications for 2008 include all publications through October.

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Press Coverage

Figure 6: Press coverage. Includes coverage in newspapers, television, and radio. Numbers are conservative estimates, and representations in foreign media are undercounted. Several stories about PERC in USA Today and the Washington Post were picked up by wire services and reprinted in papers around the country. These are not reported in these figures. For 2008, media coverage through October is reported.

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Funding Sources

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Link Between Credit Reporting and Asset Building?

Two primary means to create wealth are: Home ownership Owning a small business

Given this, a credit score--which is derived from a credit file--become critical to one’s life and life’s chances.

As scores are used in a growing number of areas, this becomes more so over time.

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Benefits of Fully Reporting Payment Data

Borrowers Reduced probability of over-

extension Greater and fairer access Credit offers reflect credit risk and

credit capacity

Lenders Improved loan portfolio

performance Basel 2 compliance Sustainable growth into new

markets

Furnishers• Improved cash flow• Improved relation with customers

The Economy Better financial services

efficiencies Affordable growth in domestic

consumption

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The Economy

LendersConsumers

Alternative

Data

Initiative

ADI

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Why ADI?

The problem for consumers…

35 to 54 million Americans “unscorable”due to few or no payment histories in their credit files

Primarily low income, immigrants, elderly, and ethnic minorities

Lender assume little information = high risk

Billions spent on fees for payday lender, check cashing services, and predatory lenders

Access to credit crucial for asset formation, such as automobiles, homes, and small businesses

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Why ADI?

The problem for entrepreneurs and small business operators…

High small business failure rate, credit access can be an important factor

African-American and Latino owners face greater loan denial rates (SBA)

Business owner’s consumer credit often used for business purposes

Small business loans often underwritten using the personal credit history of owner

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Why ADI?

How did these problems come about?

The use of automated underwriting lowered the cost of loan origination made lending more objective.

Is this a policy issue?

FACTA mandated FTC to study issue. FTC report concluded the market was taking care of it.

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The Solution

Many everyday payments made are not included in consumer credit files and not used in credit scores Utility payments Telephone payments Cable / Satellite payments Internet payments Rental payments

Unless the consumer has been delinquent (passed on to bureaus either directly or via collection agency)

While some consumers are punishedMany more go unrewarded

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Importance of the Solution

Full-file reporting to credit bureaus of the many everyday payments made by consumers holds the promise of closing a critical information gap.

Credit scores have grown ever more important (insurance, employment screening)

Due to current credit crisis, credit availability has diminished, especially for riskier borrowers and for borrowers on which there is little information

Moving forward, regulators, GSEs, and lenders will continue to tighten standards requiring more hard data when lending

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The Roadmap: ADI Phase 1

Phase 1 Objectives

Define universe of alternative data

Assess which are most promising and useful

Frame the issue, identify the problem and the way forward

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Phase 1 Key Findings and Results

Reporting of utility and telecom payments hold most near term promise

Technological and economic barriers are surmountable

Legislative barriers and “regulatory uncertainty” need to be addressed

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Why ADI Phase 2?

PERC Identifies Market Failures Chicken vs. Egg --Not business priority for bureaus since

FSIs are not demanding alternative data. FSIs not demanding alternative data as bureaus not collecting it.

No Better Mousetrap --Few actors with viable solutions since data is not collected

Data Under-supplied--Utilities and telecoms don’t see the business case for fully reporting

Congress holds hearings in 2005 22 representatives make statements

Demand

Supply

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ADI Phase 2 Deliverables

Released “Give Credit Where Credit is Due” with Brookings UMI

Built broad coalition of supporters including lenders, credit bureaus, CRAs, and consumer advocates

Extensive outreach with public and private sectors.

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Phase 2 Key Findings and Results Risk profile of thin- and no-file population similar to general

population when alternative data added. Many who are denied credit are good risks

10% of utility and telecom customers had no other payment history and are disproportionately ethnic minority, immigrants, low income, young, and over 65. Virtually eliminates unscoreability

Credit score performance improves with utility and telecom payment data. Vast majority see scores improve, regardless of demographics

Credit access can expand while improving loan performance.

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Total sample 7.5M

Addition of Utility Data Has Small Impact on Score Distribution

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Those With Alt Data Added Don’t See Worsening Scores Over Time

Change in score at end of observation period over beginning, by income and race/ethnicity

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0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

All Asian Black Hispanic Other White

Utilities Telecoms

Change in Acceptance Rates by Race/Ethnicity at 3% Delinquency Target

Phase 2 Key Findings

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Phase 2 Key Findings

Change in Acceptance Rates by Race/Ethnicity at 3% Delinquency Target

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

<$20,000 $20,000-$29,999 $30,000-$49,999 $50,000-$99,999 $100,000+

Utilities Telecoms

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Phase 2 Results

Making the market for alternative data

Bringing together bureaus and lenders to overcome chicken vs. egg

Quantifying the value of alternative data to borrowers and lenders

Demand

Q

P

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Phase 2 Results

Making the market for alternative data

Bureaus begin to prioritize alternative data

Lenders increase testing and underwriting more with alternative data (e.g. GE Money’s “Road to Credit” program).

Proliferation of solutions PRBC FICO Expansion CREDCO Anthem L2C Experian VantageScore

Demand

Q

P

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ADI Phase 3

Why ADI Phase 3?

Too little fully reported alternative data

Poor results from “black box” approaches

Existing barriers to reporting

State policy dilemmas

Q

P

Supply

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Phase 3 Deliverables

ADI Phase 3 (Feb 07 – September 08)

Build business case for full file reporting (furnisher survey)

Open data valve by exhorting furnishers to report

Test “optimized” approaches and new data (rental, wage, and employment)

Remove statutory/regulator barriers to reporting

Build policy coalition - consumer advocates and industry

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Phase 3 Results

Phase 3 Findings and Results: You Score You Win: The Consequences of Giving Credit Where Credit is Due

Strong furnisher case studies highlighting the business value of full-file reporting (industry outreach--peer testimonial)

Most utilities and telecoms do not fully report but do send their derogatories on to collection agencies (PERC survey)

Most utilities and telecoms that fully report see positive net benefits to their bottom lines from reporting (PERC survey)

The costs involved in fully reporting are reasonable (PERC survey)

The inclusion of non-financial payment data in consumer credit files has been shown to dramatically broaden and deepen access to affordable sources of mainstream credit

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Consumer Benefits - 6 months Post Implementation

6.2% of 2.2 million DTE Energy customers were able to be scored for the first time with the addition of the DTE Energy trade

New records were established for an additional 1.9% of our customers (primarily lower income, ethnic minorities)

38,821

127,126

Total newconsumerrecords

Total newscorablerecords

Consumers benefiting from reporting

1.9%

6.2%

Source: Experian

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Consumer Benefits – 2007 Reporting Cycle

Consumers Benefiting From Reporting

14,397

9,117Scorable Records

Due to DTE EnergyTrade

New RecordsGenerated

Source: Experian

DTE Energy opened 452,542 new accounts in 2007

The 14,397 new records generated by credit reporting in 2007 had no prior history and represent 3.18%of total new accounts opened. While many of these may not be scorable they are building a credit history

9,117 additional customers now have a credit score because DTE Energy credit reports

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0.00 0.06 0.06 0.11 0.18 0.29 1.343.47 1.98 1.25 1.08 1.77 0.36 0.01

63.97

24.07

3.79

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30

40

50

60

70

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Score Changes (Vantage Score)

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Changes in Score Due to DTE Trade (Based on Records Not Delinquent)

Source: Experian

64% of non-delinquent accounts saw no change in credit scores

24% of non-delinquent accounts saw a slight improvement in credit scores

Almost 4% of all non-delinquent accounts since implementation of credit reporting in August 2006 are now scorable due to DTE Energy’s tradelines

ADI Phase 4: 2009-2010

The Last Mile• Exhort data furnishers to report

• Deliver findings from furnisher survey• Provide guidance and referrals

• Remove barriers to reporting• Work with states (CA, IL)• Work with Congress/regulators

• Test new alternative data• Rental payment data• Wage and employment• Remittance payment

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Gulf

Coast

Economic

Renewal

GCER

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Little information on the financial impacts--credit and insurance--of disasters on consumers, small businesses, and communities

Information that is available Often is not very current More akin to lagging indicators than leading indicators Describes quantities and levels of impact and recovery

(employment, number of businesses, population estimates) and not quality of impact and recovery

Long-term renewal of Gulf-Coast will require “organic” growth, a function of underlying financial health

GCER

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PERC’s Solution

Combine available information with: Consumer credit file information Business credit file information Other private sector datasets (Acxiom, ratings agencies) Survey data designed to fill gaps

View recovery/renewal holistically: Recovery depends on the simultaneous recoveries

and financial conditions of households, businesses and communities.

GCER

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Survey of small business owners/operators on 2nd and 3rd anniversary of Katrina’s Gulf Coast landfall

Survey design took account of other national surveys to benchmark

Small business credit data (Experian) appended to survey

Socio-economic data (Acxiom) appended to survey

GCER Small Business Survey

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Some Key Findings, 2007

While there was evidence of recovery, it was unevenly distributed across

varying socio-economic groups

o 6 in 10 Hispanic-owned small business at or above pre-Katrina revenues

o 3 in 4 Black-owned small businesses below pre-Katrina revenues

Business phone disconnection rate much higher for minority owned

businesses (proxy for business failure)

African-American owners reported a much harder time accessing affordable

credit than other owners

GCER Survey Key Findings

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GCER Financial Well-Being Report

Partnered with World Bank and Brookings Institution on initial report examining financial health of households, small businesses, and communities

World Bank’s first project in the USA

WB so satisfied with results that it is moving to the next stage,

piloting the concept in less developed countries

Study in final “revise and resubmit phase”

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GCER Financial Well-Being Report

Some Key Findings

Small businesses in Orleans and St. Bernard Parishes show a

good deal of financial stress (spikes in derogatories and

collections)

Low income individuals, African-Americans, and the young

saw greater than average rises in relative indebtedness

Homeowners and married couples showed greater financial

stability and less of a rise in indebtedness

GCER Financial Well-Bring Report

Some Key Findings, 2008 Sales performance has improved or stayed constant for the majority of small

businesses since 2007, but has not yet reached pre-Katrina levels.

Sales performance in relation to pre-Katrina levels continues to inch forward with some variation.

The key challenges to small business owners center on the fundamentals of labor, capital and demand.

The perceived magnitude of some challenges associated with small business recovery has declined significantly.

Nonprofits and charities continue to be viewed as the organizations that have had the most positive impact in recovery.

There remain disparities in business recovery by the ethnicity of owner or operator.

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GCER

Partners and groups

Louisiana State University (LSU), Dek Terrell and Ryan Bilbo Louisiana Recovery Authority (LRA) Lousiana Disaster Recovery Authority (LDRF) Foundation for the Mid-South (FMS) Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation Greater New Orleans Community Data Center (GNOCDC) Other local (Gulf Coast) groups

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GCER

“The findings generated by PERC’s report on the recovery of small businesses along the Gulf Coast in the wake of Hurricane Katrina were exceptional. The Foundation for the Mid South was particularly interested in this project because of the snapshot it provided of recovery by combining credit and socio-demographic data. Consequently, the information informed our work and grantmaking because the report highlighted certain inequities and ineffective policies during the rebuilding phase after the disaster.”

Chris Crothers Director Foundation for the Mid South

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GCER

“Recovery, Renewal, and Resiliency” sheds light on the continuing struggles of business owners to fully recover in the aftermath of the Katrina disaster. PERC has made an important contribution to the continuing national debate on the hurricane recovery. PERC’s disaster recovery dashboard has the potential to make sure that the long recovery process that affected Gulf Coast small business owners doesn’t happen again in other areas affected by disaster.”

Robert Strom Ph.D. Director of Research and Policy Kauffman Foundation

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Information-

Led

Development

ILD

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How can information sharing practices be structured in emerging economies to: Improve financial access for economic

development Expand credit access to the urban and

rural poor for asset formationo Enable microlending for microenterpriseso Support small medium enterprise development

Information Led Development

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Improving credit access for urban and rural poor in emerging economies (with CGAP, World Bank):

Alternative data approach: Survey of alternative data sources for lending for microfinance in emerging economies worldwide

Reorient mainstream finance to urban and rural poor Identify reporting needs to assist poor majorities

Current Projects—Information Led Development I

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Improving credit access for urban and rural poor in emerging economies (with CGAP, World Bank):

Alternative scoring approach: Use cell phone payment and pre-payment for mircoloan score to

Lower cost of loans and widen access by reorienting major lenders to poorer households

Expand mobile-banking services to loan origination

Current Projects—Information Led Development I

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Approaches to information sharing and broader financial access in China: Conference with Beijing University (March 2008)

o Two day conference on lending and information sharing issues

o Global players on issue

Closed door open agenda discussions with the People’s Bank of China ono Standardso Data qualityo Alternative data for wider inclusion

Current Projects—Information Led Development II

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Improving access to small medium and micro enterprise (SMME) financing in South Africa (with National Credit Regulator, South Africa): Survey of information sharing and SMME financing

o Practices and standardso Scope of sharingo Alternative data

Deployed for reform efforts aimed at:o Expanding lending to SMMEs , especially for

― Black-owned businesses― Women-owned businesses― Lower-income households

o Monitor and address recklessness in lending (overextensions)

Current Projects—Information Led Development III

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Credit reporting standards through APEC: Working with information firms and lenders in

Asia Pacific—including emerging economies such as China, (also) India, Mexico, Russia, and Singapore

Formulate research, standards, and outreach program

Generate momentum behind adoption reporting standards that take into considerationo Wider inclusiono Improved data qualityo Data subject rights to access and securityo Data privacy

Current Projects—Information Led Development IV

5959

Developing metrics for evaluation financial stability projects (with United Way):

Test and refine a tracking methodology which uses the individual credit file data of participants and control groups with

Field research in the cities Assessments of database by UW program, to supplement credit

data Observations of running and implementation of programs Interviews of beneficiaries

Pending Projects I

6060


Develop indices from a set of financial metrics that: Enable the specification of outcomes through data comparisons with

control groups; Allow for a more accurate identification of individuals in need; Permit faster and more accurate monitoring of progress in economic

well-being projects.

Pending Projects I

6161


Evaluate whether generalizable metrics are possible or need to be customized, and if so to what extent

Retrospective testing of archived data to accelerate (depending on data quality)

Live deployment of metrics

Pending Projects I

6262

Measuring impact of financial stability projects for improved interventions (with United Way):

Problem: how to assess the real effect of financial literacy and economic stability and well-being projects

What are appropriate measures? What is the appropriate time-frame? What are the relevant benchmarks and control groups?

(how many variables can be taken account of?)

Pending Projects I

6363


Proposed solution: evaluate the impact of United Way financial literacy and economic well-being programs in Boston, MA (pending), Brownsville, TX, Charlotte, NC, Chicago, IL, Columbus, OH, Miami, FL, West Palm Beach, FL, Winston Salem, NC

Track the changes in the credit and financial profiles of participants

Benchmark performance against randomly selected individuals who are geographical and socio-demographically “close”—and to the extent that some who apply don’t join the program, serve as randomized trials (akin to procedures suggested by Poverty Action Lab)

Pending Projects I

6464


Provide mid-project assessments of any need for additional interventionsIdentify differential program impacts on varying socio-demographic segmentsAssess efficacy of program combinations

Pending Projects I

6565

What are the consequences of financial data quality for access and distribution and what practice can improve data quality? (with IFC, World Bank Group):

Developed methodology for Identify data quality issues Segment sources of inaccuracies by sector Match to social segments to measure differential impact

Measure consequences of data quality problems for financial access, price and stability

Pending Projects II

6666

What are the consequences of financial data quality for access and distribution and what practice can improve data quality? (with IFC, World Bank Group):

Prescribe Best practices based on comparative lessons Redress procedures Regulatory reform

Develop applications to assist credit counselors, regulators, etc., more quickly address data quality problems

Pending Projects II

6767

Alternative score development for improving SMME financing in emerging markets (IDB, SAS, IFC):

Developed conditional score in partnership with microlenders in emerging markets

Identify available data sources Segment different data types available by sector Develop a score that begins with local judgment but develops

statistically

Pending Projects III

6868

Alternative score development for improving SMME financing in emerging markets (IDB, SAS, IFC):

Test at small scale Caribbean Latin America South Africa

Measure impact on target groupsDiffuse to lenders, microfinance institutions, m-bankers

Pending Projects III

Opportunities on hold or lost owing to bandwidth constraints:

FTC Data Quality -- requested to submit proposal for consumer-centric credit file data quality study, as mandated by Congress in FACTA.

Budget was $25,000 Lost to consortium owing to their ability to cross-subsidize Study being done by industry with predictable results

FDIC Subprime analysis -- invited to partner on study examining HMDA, performance, and credit file data FRB Disparate Impacts -- requested to collaborate with FRB to examine how credit files and credit scores could be modified to reduce perceived inequities. External Relations --

CFSI -- advisory board for segmentation analysis Credit Builders Alliance -- research advisory board, financial literacy

Over-Pending Projects

Political & Economic Research Council

100 Europa Drive, Suite 403

Chapel Hill, NC 27517

www.infopolicy.org

Phone: (919) 338-2798

Economy & Finance

PERC Overview