Oliver Terry - HSMAI Europe

STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com www.strglobal.com

HSMAI – Europe Revenue Conference

Global Hotel Performance Trends Oliver Terry Director of Data Services London - Jumeirah Carlton Tower 24th February 2015

STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com

Agenda

•  Global Overview •  European Trends •  UK & London Trends •  Europe Pipeline •  Europe Forecast


Our Coverage

50,000 Hotels & 6.75 Million Hotel Rooms


Our Coverage Hotels & Hotel Rooms

+8.3K

+1.1M

+6.4K

+1.2M +610

+110K +840

+132K

+33K

+3.9M

+585

+150K

Hotels

Rooms


Global & Europe: International Tourists Arrivals # of international tourist arrivals worldwide and into Europe, in millions

563 Europe

2013

Global 1,087

605 Europe

2015 f

Global 1,187

531 Europe

2012

Global 1,035

583 Europe

2014

Global 1,132

STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com STR Global 2014 www.strglobal.com

RevPAR % Change Map December 2014 YTD, Constant Currency USD, Europe in EUR

+8.2% +5.0% € +3.7%

+0.5%

+4.8% +18.3% +14.6%

+2.6%


Spotlight Europe – What’s Driving European RevPAR? Market performance RevPAR, December 2014 YTD, CC€

Occupancy -3.0%

Eastern Europe Northern Europe

ADR & Occupancy +7.7%

Occupancy +2.6%

Western Europe Southern Europe

ADR & Occupancy +7.4%


RevPAR: 3 of 4 Back to Peak 12MMA ADR; Total 2007 – Total 2014 (indexed to 2007)

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1,0

1,1

1,2

2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007

Europe Eastern Europe Northern Europe Southern Europe Western Europe


Europe Room Supply/Demand % Change 12 months moving average Jan 2006 to December 2014

-8 %

-6 %

-4 %

-2 %

0 %

2 %

4 %

6 %

8 %

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Hun

dred

er

Supply % Chg Demand % Chg


Europe: 17 consecutive growth months RevPAR Percent Change, January 2001 – December 2014, in EUR

-30 %

-20 %

-10 %

0 %

10 %

20 %

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Hun

dred

er

17 months of growth

9/11

SARS Global Financial crisis


RevPAR %Chg YE 2014 % Chg, Demand and RevPAR, Lux & UpperUp, in Local Currency

-15 % -10 % -5 % 0 % 5 % 10 % 15 % 20 % 25 % 30 % 35 %

Athens Glasgow

Madrid Brighton

Lisbon Vienna

Manchester Amsterdam

Brussels Dublin

Edinburgh Belfast Rome Berlin

London Helsinki

Paris Monaco Warsaw Moscow

Hundreder

Demand RevPAR (LC)


European Markets Occ, ADR

0 €

50 €

100 €

150 €

200 €

250 €

300 €

40 %

45 %

50 %

55 %

60 %

65 %

70 %

75 %

80 %

85 %

90 % Occupancy ADR

December 2014 YTD, in Euro

Southern & Eastern Europe Western & Northern Europe


European Markets Occ, ADR % Chg December 2014 YTD, in local currency

-15 %

-10 %

-5 %

0 %

5 %

10 %

15 %

20 %

25 %

Occupancy ADR

Southern & Eastern Europe Western & Northern Europe


Europe Classes Occ and ADR

€0

€50

€100

€150

€200

€250

€300

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale & Economy

Occ 13 Occ 14 ADR 13 ADR 14 +3.9

+2.8

+1.5

+8.9 +4.1

+1.2 +2.8 +0.7 +3.3 +1.8

2013 vs. 2014, Percent % Change, in European Euro


UK & London 2014 Trends “Regional UK steals the headlines with an outstanding year”


UK Key Markets YE 2014, RevPAR %, £

3.3% London

7.2% Aberdeen

4.8% Belfast

10.3% Manchester

14.5% Cardiff

6.4% Edinburgh

11.1% Birmingham

23.0% Glasgow

12.6% Leeds

12.7% Plymouth

8.0% Total UK

10.5% Regional UK

3.3% London

2015 STR Global www.strglobal.com

-40 % -20 % 0 % 20 % 40 %

2011

2012

2013

2014

London

Group Transient

Group is supporting the growth in Regional UK Transient & Group RevPAR % Change, £

-10 % 0 % 10 % 20 % 30 %

2011

2012

2013

2014

Regional UK

Group Transient


Regional UK experienced a more prolonged decline before recovery

July 2008

Sep 2009

Sep 2010

Aug 2012 Dec 2014

£100

£105

£110

£115

£120

£125

£130

£135

£140

£145

78 % 79 % 80 % 81 % 82 % 83 % 84 %

January 2007 – December 2014, 12 Month Moving Average, Occ & ADR

Sep 2008

Jun 2010 Mar 2012

Dec 2012

Dec 2014

£58

£59

£60

£61

£62

£63

£64

£65

64 % 66 % 68 % 70 % 72 % 74 % 76 %

London Regional UK Growth Recession Recovery

May 2014


UK Cities Occ, ADR & RevPAR

£0

£20

£40

£60

£80

£100

£120

£140

£160

40 %

45 %

50 %

55 %

60 %

65 %

70 %

75 %

80 %

85 %

90 % ADR RevPAR Occupancy

YE 2014, KPI, £


UK Key Cities Occ, ADR % Chg YE 2014, £

-5 %

0 %

5 %

10 %

15 %

20 %

Occupancy ADR


December 2014, Room Count Share

London Regional UK

3 % 15 %

19 %

22 % 12 %

29 %

London vs. Regional UK

11 %

18 %

23 % 12 %

13 %

23 %


Midscale & Economy lead the growth, ADR growth returns to London

£0

£50

£100

£150

£200

£250

£300

£350

40 %

45 %

50 %

55 %

60 %

65 %

70 %

75 %

80 %

85 %

90 %

Luxury Upper Upscale

Upscale Upper Midscale

Midscale & Economy

Luxury Upper Upscale

Upscale Upper Midscale

Midscale & Economy

Occ 13 Occ 14 ADR 13 ADR 14 RevPAR %Chg.

YE 2013 & 2014, £

London

Regional UK

+2.3% +0.9% +3.5% +6.3% +8.6% +6.6% +7.2% +9.7% +10.7% +13.7%


London 2014 “A good year with a soft middle!”


83.0% 2014

82.5%

2013

80.7% 2012

London - Occupancy Consistently Growing Occupancy 2012 - 2014


London – Occupancy Trends Monthly Occupancy, Jan -Dec 2014

60 %

65 %

70 %

75 %

80 %

85 %

90 %

95 %

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2012 2013 2014


GBP 141 2014

GBP 137 2013

GBP 140 2012

London – 2014 Above Olympic ADR totals ADR 2012 - 2014


London – ADR Trends Monthly ADR, Jan -Dec 2012, 2013, 2014

£100

£110

£120

£130

£140

£150

£160

£170

£180

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2012 2013 2014

2015 STR Global www.strglobal.com

Outer London Submarkets Dominating RevPAR Growth RevPAR growth, 2014 over 2013, GBP

Docklands/Greenwich

Earls Court/Kensington/

Chelsea Knightsbridge/Pimlico/Victoria

London West End

North Central London

Outer London East

Outer London North

Outer London South

Outer London West

Paddington/Bayswater/Notting Hill

South Central London

The City/Shoreditch

0 %

2 %

4 %

6 %

8 %

10 %

12 %

14 %

16 %


Pipeline “UK leads Europe in supply growth!”


Europe – Pipeline, Top 10

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

United Kingdom

Russia

Germany

Turkey

France

Poland

Italy

Netherlands

Spain

Switzerland

Tusener

Existing Pipeline

January 2015 Report, Pipeline by Room Count


United Kingdom Pipeline January 2015 Pipeline Report, Under Contract, Room Count

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

London Northwest England Southeast England

Scotland Southwest England

West Midlands Yorkshire & Humberside

Northeast England East England

East Midlands Wales

Northern Ireland

Tusener

Existing Pipeline


United Kingdom Pipeline by Chain Scale January 2015 Report, Pipeline by Room Count

1 % 7 %

14 %

17 %

3 % 18 %

40 %

Luxury Chains

Upper Upscale Chains

Upscale Chains

Upper Midscale Chains

Midscale Chains

Economy Chains

Unaffiliated


Accumulated room count growth by class; YE 2004 – December 2014

2.9% CAGR

2.3% CAGR

1.2% CAGR

1.1% CAGR

1.2% CAGR

1.6% CAGR

0 % 5 % 10 % 15 % 20 % 25 % 30 %

Economy Class (120K)

Upper Midscale Class (90K)

Upscale Class (79K)

Upper Upscale Class (59K)

Midscale Class (48K)

Luxury Class (12K)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Room Count Growth by Class

Regional UK


+9.7%

+9.6%

+12.8%

+5.0%

+5.7%

+4.0%

0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000 4 500 5 000

Economy Class

Upscale Class

Upper Midscale Class

Upper Upscale Class

Midscale Class

Luxury Class

London Pipeline by Class – Economy also leads the way in rooms January 2015 Pipeline Report, Pipeline Under Contract


Europe Forecast “Southern Europe continues to lead the way”


Market Forecast - Europe RevPAR growth 2015, November 2014 edition


Market Forecast - Europe Occupancy & ADR % Change 2015, November 2014 edition

AMS

ATH

BAR

BER

BRU BUD

COL

DBL

DUS

FRA

HAM

MAD

MIL

MOS

MUC PAR

PRA

ROM STU

VIE

WAR

ZUR LON

-8 %

-6 %

-4 %

-2 %

0 %

2 %

4 %

6 %

8 %

-4,0% -3,0% -2,0% -1,0% 0,0% 1,0% 2,0% 3,0% 4,0% 5,0% 6,0%

ADR

% C

hang

e

Occupancy % Change


Market Forecast - UK RevPAR growth 2015, November 2014 edition


Market Forecast - UK Occupancy & ADR % Change 2015, November 2014 edition

BIR EDI

GAT

GLA

HEA LEE

MAN

LON

LON LC

LON UUC

LON UC LON UMC

LON MEC

RUK RUK UUC

RUK UMC RUK MEC

-8 %

-6 %

-4 %

-2 %

0 %

2 %

4 %

6 %

8 %

-2,5% -2,0% -1,5% -1,0% -0,5% 0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0%

ADR

% C

hang

e

Occupancy % Change


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STR Global, Ltd is the exclusive owner of all rights in this presentation and its content. Reproduction of all or a portion of this presentation for any purpose without prior approval of STR Global is strictly prohibited. This presentation is based on information compiled by STR Global Ltd. No strategic or marketing recommendations or advice are intended or implied.

Thank you and any questions?

Oliver Terry

+44 (0)207 922 1930

Economy & Finance

Oliver Terry - HSMAI Europe