MTBiz March 2016

MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEWVOLUME: 07 ISSUE: 02MARCH 2016

Global Economic ProspectsSpillovers amid Weak Growth

Contents

Disclaimer:

MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEWVOLUME: 07 ISSUE: 02MARCH 2016

Article of the month 02National News

The Central Bank 05 Banking Industry 08 MTB News & Events 11 Business & Economy 16 Industry Appointments 18International News

Business & Economy 19 Economic Forecast 23 Wells Fargo Monthly Outlook 24

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02 MTBiz

ARTICLE OF THE MONTH

Global growth again fell short of expecta ons in 2015.

Growth is projected to edge up in 2016-18 but the

forecast is subject to substan al downside risks. Key

points are spillovers from a slowdown in major

emerging markets; the poten al macroeconomic

implica ons of the Trans-Pacific Partnership; and the

links between exchange rate regimes and capital

controls in emerging and developing countries.

Global growth again fell short of expecta ons in 2015,

decelera ng to 2.4 percent from 2.6 percent in 2014.

The disappoin ng performance mainly reflected a

con nued growth decelera on in emerging and

developing economies amid post-crisis lows in

commodity prices, weaker capital flows and subdued

global trade. Global growth is projected to edge up in

the coming years, but at a slower pace than envisioned

in June 2015, reaching 2.9 percent in 2016 and 3.1

percent in 2017-18. This pickup is predicated on

con nued gains in major high-income countries, a

gradual ghtening of financing condi ons, a

stabiliza on of commodity prices, and a gradual

rebalancing in China. The forecast is subject to

substan al downside risks, including a disorderly

slowdown in major emerging market economies,

financial market turmoil arising from sudden shi s in

borrowing costs amid deteriora ng fundamentals,

lingering vulnerabili es in some countries, and

heightened geopoli cal tensions. Weakening growth

and sharply lower commodity prices have narrowed the

room for policy makers to respond, especially in

commodity-expor ng countries, should risks

materialize.

Specifically, a 1 percentage point decline in growth in

BRICS (Brazil, Russian, India, China, and South Africa) is

associated with a reduc on in growth over the

following two years by 0.8 percentage points in other

emerging markets, 1.5 percentage points in fron er

markets, and 0.4 percentage points in the global

economy. Spillovers could be considerably larger if the

growth slowdown in BRICS were combined with

financial market turbulence.

On October 4, 12 Pacific Rim countries concluded

nego a ons on the Trans-Pacific Partnership. The

agreement could raise GDP in member countries by an

average of 1.1 percent by 2030. It could also increase

member countries’ trade by 11 percent by 2030.

Among emerging and developing countries, some

countries might rely on exchange rate flexibility as a

bu er, some might aim to minimize currency

fluctua ons, and some might consider measures to

limit capital flows as they seek to keep some degree of

Metals: The slump in metal prices, which reached their

lowest levels in more than 6 years in November, reflects

well-supplied markets as well as weaker growth in

major emerging markets. New mining capacity came

into opera on in several countries, especially Australia,

adding to already abundant supplies.

Agricultural commodi es: Grain and oilseed prices

dipped in 2015, mostly in response to well-supplied

markets, with the agricultural price index standing 33

percent below its early -2011 high as of November. The

stocks-to-use ra o (a measure of how well supplied

markets are) for key grains remains well above its 5-

and 10-year average levels.

Source: World Bank

Major economies

The recovery in major high-income countries gained

trac on last year. This has been increasingly driven by

stronger domes c demand, par cularly in the United

States, where employment condi ons are robust. In the

Euro Area, credit growth is picking up and

unemployment is declining. The recovery remains

fragile in Japan despite substan al policy s mulus. With

external demand nega vely a ected by a slowdown in

large emerging market economies, growth forecasts

across major high-income economies in 2016 have

been shaded down, but growth should s ll show some

improvement from 2015. The ghtening cycle of the

U.S. Federal Reserve is projected to be very gradual,

2013 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018fDeveloping Countries 5.3 4.9 4.3 4.8 5.3 5.3

East Asia and Pacific 7.1 6.8 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.2China 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.5Indonesia 5.6 5.0 4.7 5.3 5.5 5.5Thailand 2.8 0.9 2.5 2.0 2.4 2.7

Europe and Central Asia 3.9 2.8 2.1 3.0 3.5 3.5Kazakhstan 6.0 4.4 0.9 1.1 3.3 3.4Turkey 4.2 2.9 4.2 3.5 3.5 3.4Romania 3.5 2.8 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.0

Latin America and the Caribbean 3.0 1.5 -0.7 0.1 2.3 2.5Brazil 3.0 0.1 -3.7 -2.5 1.4 1.5Mexico 1.4 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.2Colombia 4.9 4.6 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.5

Middle East and North Africa 0.6 2.5 2.5 5.1 5.8 5.1Egypt, Arab Rep 2.1 2.2 4.2 3.8 4.4 4.8Iran, Islamic Rep. -1.9 4.3 1.9 5.8 6.7 6.0Algeria 2.8 3.8 2.8 3.9 4.0 3.8

South Asia 6.2 6.8 7.0 7.3 7.5 7.5India 6.9 7.3 7.3 7.8 7.9 7.9Pakistan 4.4 4.7 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4Bangladesh 6.1 6.5 6.5 6.7 6.8 6.8

Sub-Saharan Africa 4.9 4.6 3.4 4.2 4.7 4.7South Africa 2.2 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6Nigeria 5.4 6.3 3.3 4.6 5.3 5.3Angola 6.8 3.9 3.0 3.3 3.8 3.8


03 MTBiz


United States

Robust consumer spending and investment in the

demand are weighing on exports and manufacturing

Euro Area

growth remain subdued among economies with high

Japan

China

expansion of consumer spending and services has

Renewed decline in commodity prices

Oil:

investment and drilling but was resilient for most of

04 MTBiz


Metals:

Grain and oilseed prices

Japan

Spillovers from G7 excluding Japan

South Asia

headwinds from an increase in interest rates in the

percentage point decline in BRICS growth is associated

spillovers present challenges that need to be addressed

B. Export growth

Percent, quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adj.50

30

10

-10

-30

-50

-70Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15

India Pakistan Sri Lanka Bangladesh

A. Commodity Prices

Normal Index, 2010Q1=100

120

100

80

60

40

EnergyAgricultural raw materialsMetals

20

11

Q1

20

11

Q3

20

12

Q1

20

12

Q3

20

13

Q1

20

13

Q3

20

14

Q1

20

14

Q3

20

15

Q1

20

15

Q3

05 MTBiz

THE CENTRAL BANK

BB issues risk management guidelines for NBFIs

Management Guidelines for

strengthen their overall

booths

their automated teller

clients of three leading

BB has awarded PSO license to SSL Wireless

NATIONAL NEWS

1st Secured Online Payment Hub in Bangladesh

R

06 MTBiz

THE CENTRAL BANK

Debnath on behalf of Bangladesh government and the

now able to operate business

BB seeks info on treasury bonds from banks

as the government has

banking

BB to train up 10,200 youths for SME sector

makers

07 MTBiz

08 MTBiz

BANKING INDUSTRY

Default loans decline slightly

default loans

percent to

crore in the

last quarter

restructuring

On December

Bank interest spread rises

rate on deposit was decreased more than that of

the weighted average rates on deposits came down to

Home loan interest rates down to a record low

Interest rates on home loans have plunged to the

Banks slash rates on deposits, lower lending rates for

the interest rates on

points this month

while lowered lending

BRAC Bank, Le Méridien Dhaka sign agreement

signed a

Memorandum of

special discount

NATIONAL NEWS

Weighted Average Interest Rates(Banking Sector: 2015)

11.51%

11.57%

July Aug

Banking Export

Sep Oct Nov Dec

Source: BB

6.7

8%

6.7

4%

6.6

6%

6.5

8%

6.4

6%

6.3

4%

11.44% 11.27%

11.35% 11.18%

BANKS’ DEFAULT LOANSIn crores of takaSource: BB

State Specialised Private Foreign

SEP’15

DEC’15

5,2

872

3,7

44

22

,72

7

24

,57

8

20

,76

0

4,9

68

2,1

15

1,8

97

09 MTBiz

BANKING INDUSTRY

BRAC Bank launches Women’s Forum “Tara”

Limited, formally launched the BRAC Bank Women’s

health, household, lifestyle and other realms of

City Bank signs agreement with DPDC

City Bank

P o w e r

has recently

A R P C

10 MTBiz

BANKING INDUSTRY

Limited with

t e c h n i c a l

Limited (SSL

S t a n d a r d

C h a r t e r e d

BRAC recently

launched two

11 MTBiz

12 MTBiz

MTB NEWS & EVENTS

th

A R P

13 MTBiz

MTB NEWS & EVENTS

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NON-FOOD

INFLATIONIn %

FOOD

6.8 6.35 6.73 6.67 6.56 7.058.74

4.335.485.725.895.926.066.07

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

EXPORT TREND

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

SOURCE: EPB

In billions of $

2.63 2.76

2.62

2.37 2.

75

3.2

3.19

BUSINESS & ECONOMY

16 MTBiz

BUSINESS & ECONOMY

Sayedur Rahman

Commerce and

w o m e n

not only created

Since 1904

METROPOLITAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE

& INDUSTRY, DHAKA

17 MTBiz

BUSINESS & ECONOMY

18 MTBiz

INDUSTRY APPOINTMENTS

Abu Asad joins Sonali Bank as DMD

Syed Abu Asad has recently joined

Sonali Bank Limited as its Deputy

Managing Director. Prior to his

new assignment, he was the

general manager of the

state-owned Rupali Bank Limited.

During his 32-year banking career,

Shahjahan new DMD of Sonali Bank

AAM Shahjahan joined state

owned Sonali Bank Limited as

Deputy Managing Director in the

city recently. Prior to this, he was

General Manager of Agrani Bank

Limited. He started his banking

career at Agrani Bank Limited as

in home and abroad.

Pijush new DMD of Janata Bank

Pijush Chandra Bhowal has joined

Janata Bank Limited as Deputy

Managing Director recently. He

started his career in Bangladesh

Manager in Khulna, Mymensingh

trainings, seminars and symposiums held at home and

abroad.

Palli Shanchay Bank gets new DMD

Feroj Khan has joined state owned

Palli Shanchay Bank as Deputy

recently. Prior to the joining, he

was GM of Bangladesh Krishi Bank.

He started his career in the same

symposiums held at home and abroad.

NRB Commercial reappoints MD

Dewan Mujibur Rahman, a senior

banker, has been re-appointed

Commercial Bank Limited. Mr.

Rahman has been performing as

opening of the bank. Mr. Rahman

started career with Agrani Bank as a

trainings and workshops. He is a life member of

Mamun made Standard Bank AMD

Standard Bank. Mr. Mamun started

his banking career by joining

Bank as Deputy Managing Director

Arif Khan elected ICMAB president

Mr. Arif Khan FCMA was elected

and Management Accountants of

elected Mr. Jamal Ahmed

Choudhury FCMA and Prof.

Vice-Presidents, Mr. Md. Abdur Rahman Khan FCMA as

Secretary and Prof. Dr. Swapan Kumar Bala FCMA as

Khan FCMA was elected Vice President of ICMAB for

NATIONAL NEWS

19 MTBiz

BUSINESS & ECONOMY

German growth keeps eurozone economy steady

Solid growth in

p o w e r h o u s e

Germany kept

the eurozone

e c o n o m y

steady in late

from global

market turmoil and a sharp slowdown in China.

quarter and in line with analyst forecasts. German gross

weaker performances from southern countries by

Bailed out Greece fell back into recession as its

US retail sales edge higher in January

rose modestly

for the third

straight month

in January

despite falling

gasoline prices,

according to

the Commerce

economy, and for Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon

sales rise

company started breaking out from the third quarter,

from its snacks business, which includes Frito-lay and

Doritos chips, also increased 2 percent in the region.

in the quarter.

Airbus says

earnings grew

demand for the

aerospace and

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

20 MTBiz

BUSINESS & ECONOMY

Nasdaq to acquire news distributor Marketwired

would acquire

newswire operator

and press release

d i s t r i b u t e r

Marketwired LP for

an undisclosed

sum, adding to the

e x c h a n g e

through a mix of debt and cash and is expected to close

capital return strategy, the company said. Marketwired,

Indonesia plans "big bang" opening of economy to

foreign investment

Indonesian President

in an economy long

dominated by powerful

which will ease rules in the e-commerce, retail,

establishment resistant to change. It would be the most

Yuan Strengthens Sharply on Central Bank Cue

C h i n a ’ s

currency hit its

the central

bank guided it

sharply up

of stumbling

central bank sets a daily reference rate and the yuan is

August, in recent months the central bank has sought to

to losses in markets around the world last week as the

holiday.

Iran Launches First Oil Shipments to Europe in Three

Years

crude prices, which already were struggling. Iran is a

21 MTBiz

BUSINESS & ECONOMY

New Credit Extended by Chinese Banks Hits Monthly

High

high in January, as lenders front-loaded lending at the

beginning of the year while Chinese companiescut

foreign-currency debt and increased local borrowing as

billion yuan data from the People’s Bank of China

granted new loan quota, said HSBC economist Ma

Xiaoping. On the other hand, as the yuan weakens

taking out more yuan loans at home.

low-cost carriers, and the growth of markets such as

Indonesia, Myanmar and Vietnam, he added. Southeast

HSBC bank stays in London, snubbing Hong Kong

markets it would remain headquartered in Britain,

of where to put its headquarters in April last year, two

which has since been scaled down.

German economic growth could pick up again modestly

economy could expand at a slightly stronger rate than at

in its latest monthly report. According to the preliminary

household growing modestly, while lower exports had a

start of this year. With oil prices falling further at the

22 MTBiz

BUSINESS & ECONOMY

Lagarde named for 2nd term to lead IMF

director of the

Monetary Fund, was

recently to a new

term at the global emergency lender. But with the world

economy slowing, and a number of emerging

remain on the precipice, and new challenges are

cropping up as a consequence of China’s slowdown and

in resources to be used to support struggling countries

and, when needed, rescue them and shepherd them

fragile

spending to pump up an economy that has wilted amid

rate in three years. While state spending will likely

Myanmar.

23 MTBiz

ECONOMIC FORECAST

decline has been slower than expected owing to

growth, but this was tempered in the fourth quarter by

mild temperatures in the northern hemisphere reducing

stocks, falling imports to China and India, and policies to

capacity and slower seasonal demand. Precious metal

demand is expected to strengthen somewhat with a

modest pickup in global growth.

producers that prolongs the surplus in the global oil

from emerging market economies. On the other hand,

demand prospects in emerging market economies and

growth slowdown in China and larger than-expected

prospects in emerging market economies and capacity

expansion.

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

Source : World Bank

TABLE Nominal Price Indices (Actual and Forecasts) and Forecast Revisions

Energy 128 127 118 65 49 62 -24.7 25.8 -17.0 -8.3Non-Energy 110 102 97 82 79 81 -3.7 2.2 -4.6 -4.3Metals 96 91 85 67 60 63 -10.2 4.2 -9.2 -8.5Agriculture 114 106 103 89 88 89 -1.4 1.6 -2.5 -2.5Food 124 116 107 91 89 91 -1.7 1.9 -3.1 -2.8Grains 141 128 104 89 86 88 -3.4 2.6 -5.0 -4.5Oils and meals 126 116 109 85 83 86 -2.2 2.9 -4.2 -3.6Other food 107 104 108 100 100 101 0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.0Beverages 93 83 102 94 93 92 -0.9 -0.9 0.6 0.5Raw Materials 101 95 92 83 83 85 -0.5 2.2 -2.6 -2.5Fertilizers 138 114 100 95 92 92 -3.9 0.9 -3.3 -2.5Precious Metals 138 115 101 91 83 83 -8.0 -0.3 -7.5 -6.7

RevisionChange (%)Price Indices (2010=100)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2015-16 2016-17 2016F 2017F

24 MTBiz

WELLS FARGO MONTHLY OUTLOOK

U.S. Overview

central feature of annual economic outlook and has

Growing concerns about slowing global economic

percentage points from growth this year. While

direct control.

beginning of the year has been linked to concerns

about the global economic outlook. Wells Fargo

expects the global economy grew roughly 3 percent in

world, but it is not likely, by itself, to lead to recession in

place, although the pace of GDP growth in these major

slow growth in real GDP and lack of pricing power

means that nominal GDP growth on a global basis

soon.

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

Source: .S. Department of Commerce, IHS Global Insight and Wells Fargo Securi es, LLC

2 2 2 2 2 2

.S. Real GDPBars = CAGR Line = r r Percent Change

GDP - CAGR: Q2 @ 3.

GDP - r r Percent Change: Q2 @ 2.

Forecast

2 2 2 2 2 2

urozone Real GDPBars = Compound Annual Rate Line = r r Change

Compound Annual Growth: Q2 @ .

er- rcent Change: Q2 @ .

Forecast

WELLSSECURITIESFARGO

Economy & Finance

MTBiz March 2016