17
www.bloq.com A Bitcoin Status Report On-Chain Scaling Conference August 2016

Bitcoin Status Report - On-Chain Scaling Aug 2016

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Bitcoin Status Report - On-Chain Scaling Aug 2016

www.bloq.com

A Bitcoin Status Report On-Chain Scaling Conference

August 2016

Page 2: Bitcoin Status Report - On-Chain Scaling Aug 2016

© Bloq, Inc. Strictly Private and Confidential. All Rights Reserved.

Sponsored by…• Stable, modern Bitcoin platform, with router and

associated middleware and analytics.

• Security fixes delivered rapidly and safely

• Professionally maintained and delivered

• 24/7 support with Service Level Agreement

• Key scaffolding — from protocol to application

• Enterprise grade, productized and tested

• Pricing: Monthly subscription

• Strategic architecting and advisory consulting

• Innovation workshops, research and education

• Full stack: Design to PoC to production

Enterprise

Page 3: Bitcoin Status Report - On-Chain Scaling Aug 2016

© Bloq, Inc. Strictly Private and Confidential. All Rights Reserved.

TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION

PC Era Internet Era Mobile Era Decentralized Era

SemiconductorTechnology

TCP/IP Protocol

SupercomputerIn Your Pocket

BitcoinProtocol

Page 4: Bitcoin Status Report - On-Chain Scaling Aug 2016

© Bloq, Inc. Strictly Private and Confidential. All Rights Reserved.

9 FACTORS OF BLOCKCHAIN

Trust Shifting Decentralization Automation

Cryptography Permission-less Validity

Immutability Uniqueness Authentication

MACHINE TO MACHINE

PKI LIKE THE INTERNET CONTINUAL SYSTEM SELF & CROSS CHECKING

NO REWRITES NO DOUBLE SPENDINGS EVERY ACTION IS AUTHENTICATED

Page 5: Bitcoin Status Report - On-Chain Scaling Aug 2016

Approach and Point-of-View

•User centric: What do wallet users experience?

•Kepner-Tregoe method: List data points, advantages & disadvantages

POV• Field Experience - Data from actual users in the field is given more weight.

Page 6: Bitcoin Status Report - On-Chain Scaling Aug 2016

Background - Block Space Economics

• Fixed supply resource

•Changing Capacity = Changing Supply of a Resource

• Large change, when blocks full:Supply shock.

•Has control of supply of an economic resource ever led to problems, in history?

• Users bid for space inside a block

• Users speculatively bid, attaching Tx fees to Tx prior to sending.

• Fee signaling inherently complex for miners and users; compounded by stupid software.

Page 7: Bitcoin Status Report - On-Chain Scaling Aug 2016

Background - Economic Actor Tension

• Not centralized vs. decentralized

• Not small blocks vs. large blocks

• Hypothesis:

• Tension: Asset class vs. Payments

• Bitcoin-as-Asset-Class

• Not fee sensitive

• Bitcoins as payments

• Fee sensitive

• Current practice (0conf) vs.Long term (Lightning)

• Emerging blockchain applications

• Fee sensitive

Page 8: Bitcoin Status Report - On-Chain Scaling Aug 2016

Recent Metrics

•Price $575 (+149%)

•Average Tx Fee: $0.14 (+206%)

• Tx/Day: 225,000 (+63%)

•Difficulty +314%

• Nodes: 4810 (-24%)

• Median block is 98% full

• Econ. transition from “usually not full” to “usually full”

• Number of miners to achieve 95%: 8

365 DAYS

Page 9: Bitcoin Status Report - On-Chain Scaling Aug 2016

Recent Bitcoin network improvements

•Dynamic Fee Adaptation viaMemory Pool limiting

• signature validation w/ libsecp256k1

•Compact Block Relay

•Child Pays For Parent

•CLTV, CSV: Check-LockTime-Verify

Page 10: Bitcoin Status Report - On-Chain Scaling Aug 2016

Considering Network Upgrades (forks)

•Consensus rules: Rules everyone on network must follow.

•Process of meta-consensus

•How to change consensus rules?

•Akin to U.S Constitution

• Hard and Soft forks can both:

• Remove existing rules, that users may be following today.

• Add new rules, that users must follow into the future.

Page 11: Bitcoin Status Report - On-Chain Scaling Aug 2016

Hard Forks

•High user consent

•Clear upgrade path, rules.

•Reduced software complexity

• Fewer software changes req’d;Fewer potential bugs.

•Clear user choice + market path.

• Requires long lead time (est. 3-6mo)

• Disruptive: Not backward compatible;upgrade [probably] required.

• On-going network partition

• Users confused

• Ethereum/ETC example - rushed fork

BENEFITS AND RISKS

Page 12: Bitcoin Status Report - On-Chain Scaling Aug 2016

Soft Forks

•Miners agree to filter network in new way.

•Backwards compatible upgrade

•Changes require minimal approval

•More features, faster

•Asymmetric: Difficult to reverse

• Rule by tiny, few technocratic elite

• Repeated SF = Repeated collusion

• Increased software complexity

• Not opt-in — Entire network locked-in

• Asymmetric: Difficult to challenge

• User node security reduced

• Trust, reliance on miners increased

• Ethereum example

BENEFITS AND RISKS

Page 13: Bitcoin Status Report - On-Chain Scaling Aug 2016

Segregated Witness

•Messaging: “A capacity increase”

•Major

• In general: Foundational

•Solves transaction malleability

•Addresses UTXO cost

•Powerful upgradeable script vector

• Lightning enabler

• First economic soft fork; New precedents

• Voluntary upgrade — Long transition

• Capacity unlikely before January 2017

• Little user-visible benefit vs. complexity

• Transitional complexity: Wallet/exchange/up-layer software must know two txid’s, two addressing paths, and more.

• Economic complexity: “Two buckets”, new pricing, new fee bidding.

BENEFITS AND RISKS

Page 14: Bitcoin Status Report - On-Chain Scaling Aug 2016

Segregated Witness: economic changes

•Base block space size augmented by

• Extended block space size

•UTXO discount (75%)

•Analogy: Two buckets of different size, each filled with water at different rates, prices.

Page 15: Bitcoin Status Report - On-Chain Scaling Aug 2016

Segregated Witness and predictability

Attribute Predictable?

Block period Yes

Block reward, BTC Yes

Block space (1M) Yes

BIP109 Block space Yes

SegWit capacity, bytes No

SegWit capacity, calendar date No

Page 16: Bitcoin Status Report - On-Chain Scaling Aug 2016

Conclusions•Block space: Replace humans w/ algos ASAP (both BIP109 and SegWit fail, here)

•A tiny few choosing bitcoin economics is anti bitcoin’s ethos.

•Soft forks are neither opt-in nor risk-free.

•Soft forks introduce layers of long term complexity, as multiple systems (old & new) must co-exist in router (bitcoind) and upper layer (wallet/exchange/db) for years.

•Comm.: Give both sides of an analysis to users.

• Time has real costs: Consider the impact of failing to increase capacity on existing users, businesses.

•SegWit is a useful + complex foundational change - Should be hard fork.

Page 17: Bitcoin Status Report - On-Chain Scaling Aug 2016

Thank You!

Jeff Garzik Co-Founder | [email protected]/WeChat: @JGarzik

Matthew Roszak Co-Founder | [email protected]

Twitter/WeChat: @MatthewRoszak

Blockchain Solutions for Enterprise