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Mega-Urban Development Projects in
Sub-saharan Africa: What Do Cities Gain or Lose?
Symposium on research findings – Cape Town
Breakwater Lodge
20-21 July
Associate Prof Francois Viruly
Rob Mc Gaffin
University of Cape Town
Research Objectives
The Research Question
What do cities potentially gain or lose from mega
Urban Projects.
The Methodology
• Case studies (Eko Atlantic, Tatu Village , Cite du
Fleuve , Century City )
• Some Thirty projects analysed in a broader DFID
Project.
• Understanding the relationship between the
literature and case studies.
The African Cities Context..
City % Growth
2005-2010
ABUDJA 51.%
LUANDA 43.7%
NAIROBI 25.2%
DAR ES SALAM 24.9%
MAPUTO 23.5%
“ These are projects which transform landscapes rapidly ,
intentionally , and profoundly in very visible ways and require co-ordinated applications of capital
and state power”
(Gebert and Lynch, 2003 )
Understanding Urban-Mega Projects
• They require large infrastructural commitments,
• They will take many years to complete,
• Often undertaken by more than one developer,
• Will tend to incorporate public – private sector interventions,
• They influence the future shape of the metropolitan area,
• They will often have primary and secondary objectives ( including
Economic growth ),
• Often based on the view to develop “global cities “ / “ World class
cities”.
• It also implies that they will meet the needs of diverse stake-holders .
• That they will respond to other objectives such as TODs,
decentralisation of economic activity,
• Improving the quality of the built environment,
• Often rely on public sector supoort .
Risks and Opportunities of Mega Projects
Risks Opportunities
• Size and Urban Impact
• Funding Requirements
• Market Risks (Take- up)
• Property Cycle Risks
• Marketing Risks
• Infrastructural Risks
• Expected Positive
Externalities
• Risks of non-completion
• Economies of scale
• Market Differentiation
• Mixed use nature
• Combining Home, Work
and Play
• Market Competition
• Large Funding Opportunity
• Public Sector
Commitment
The Role Of The Different Players
Objectives
Local and National Government • Economic Growth
• Political Objectives
• Rates and Taxes
• Infrastructure Provision
Private Developers • Investment Returns
• The dev within a portfolio
• Dev at scale
The User • Demand for space
• Decentralisation
• Public as well as private sector
Community Stakeholders • Existing Users
• Land Owners
Foreign Professionals and Financiers • Appointments
• Prestige Projects
ANALYTIC FRAMEWORK FOCUS ON
Event Sequencing/ Business Models
( Healey, 1991, Gore & Nicholson ,
1991 ) , ULI
• Steps of the development process
• Organizing the Development
process
• Event sequencing
• Pipeline Analysis
Finance / Economic Based Models (
Barras,1999 ) , ( Rabianski et al ,
2009), ( Di Pasquale & Wheaton)
• Economic Production
• Macro-economic in nature
• Focus on Financial relationships
• Growth Oriented policies
The Institutional Models / Behavioural
Models ( Healey 1991 ) , ( Ball , 1998 ) ,
(Shatkin, 2008 ), Guy & Hennberry (
2002)
• Behavioural Models
• Actor- Centred Approach Driving
Urban Change - PPPs
• National Prestige
• Historical context
Globalization Models and International
Urban models , (De Magalhaes
,2002)(Olds, 1995 )
• Designed Internationally
• International consultants
• New Urban forms – Edge City
• Global Financial system and
Markets,
• “Westernization” & “World Class”
Century City Cape Town “Your space. Your place.”
A general overview of Century City and its surrounding areas
• 1997 - Monex Initiates the Project
• 2004 - Acquired by Rabie
Properties.
• Of 1,4Bn bulk , 0.923bn developed.
Tatu City and the Renaissance Group “Work. Live. Play.”
• Renaissance Group : Tatu City (2’500 ha), King City (1’000 ha),
Appolonia 2’500 Ha
• Land bought from coffee growers - Stephen Jennings (
Russian Finance / Globalisation of finance )
• Global financial crisis and Renaissance group closes - Oct /
NOV 2012.
• Rendeavour re-initiates the projects ( 2015 )
King City Tatu City
EKO ATLANTIC CITY NIGERIA “...the new financial epicentre of
West Africa by 2020”
Eko Atlantic City Prototype
Current Progress Of The Project
Arial view of land reclaimed from the sea for Eko Atlantic City
Construction of the “Great Wall of Lagos and 500 ha of land”
La Cite Du Fleuve Democratic Republic of Congo
• Project Initiated in 2008
• Protocol signed with the Government of the DRC signed in 2009
• The project receives the necessary infrastructural backing
Understanding the Basis of Mega- Projects
“ WHERE IS THE COMMERCIAL CENTRE , THE AFFORDABLE HOUSES “ ( Facebook Page: )
KILAMBA Angola’s Chinese built “ghost city” • Part of the presidents promise to build 1
million houses in 4 years.
• It was an ‘oil for housing project’. The government used oil as collateral to gain funds China International Trust and Investment Corporation ( CITIC).
• Consists of 700 buildings over54sqkm (2008)
• Units sold at between $125’000 - $200’000 in 2013 president decreases range to $ 70’000 - $180’000 .
• Sonip , state owned oil company offers 90% mortgages at interest of 2,2%.
• However, even though prices in Kilamba are relatively lower than Luanda, only 20% of people in Luanda can afford to live there. Rendering it accessible to a small, if growing, middle class.
Kilamba, 2014
POTENTIAL BENEFITS POTENTIAL LOSSES
PUBLIC FINANCE • Rates and Taxes
• The potential of value
capture.
• Capturing Private Finance
• Public Private partnerships
• Economic Growth
• Unproductive
Infrastructural
Expenditure.
• Misallocation of
infrastructure.
PLANNING AND
URBAN FORM
• Public- Private Partnerships
• The provision of catalytic
projects .
• Promoting the “ Modern
City “
• Private sector
dominance of planning .
• Public sector plans are
compromised
• Decentalisation ad
rdefining /public private
space.
• Traffic Congestion
• Uncompleted
Developments
LOCAL ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT
• Provides the infrastructure
/ platform for economic
activity.
• Economic development
occurs in private space
• Channels resources to
specific sectors
• Little focus on the
informal sector
What Determines The Impact For Cities
The Socio –economic and Legal
context
• Government capabilities
• The Players and Motives
The Nature of Development • Single or mixed Use
• Multi use ( complexities of mixed
use developments )
• Size of the Development
• Difficulty of the site
The type of developer • “ Umbrella Development “
• “ Subsidiary Development “
The Infrastructural Requirements • Bulk Infrastructure
• Connector Infrastructure
• Internal Infrastructure
Land Requirements • Private Land
• Public land
• Land lease arrangements
CHOOSING THE RIGHT ANALYTICAL APPROACH
FRAMEWOCRK FOCUS ON
Event Sequencing/ Business Models
( Healey, 1991, Gore & Nicholson ,
1991 ) , ULI
• Century City
• Eko Atlantic
• Cite Du Fleuve
Finance / Market Based Models (
Barras ) , ( Rabianski et al , 2009). ( Di
Pasquale & Wheaton)
• Century City
• Tatu City
• Cite du Fleuve and Eko Atlantic
Financials unknown
The Institutional Models / Behavioural
Models ( Healey 1991 ) , ( Ball , 1998 ) ,
(Shatkin, 2008 ), Guy & Hennberry (
2002)
• Eko Atlantic
• Cite Du Fleuve
Globalization Models and the
International Urban models
(Olds, 1995 )
• All Projects
• Level of application varies
• Tatu City (Int Finance )
• Chinese interests in Eko Atlantic,
Kilamba , other projects
• These type of developments should be seen as having
the potential to alter urban dynamics.
• They redefine the relationship between private and public space - including the desire by local authorities the leverage economic activity on the back of infrastructure.
• They can result in the privatisation of urban and regional planning.
• An understanding should be based on an“ Actor centered historical framework “ with an emphasis on local context .
• The ability to link infrastructure with private sector property development.
• The Strength of the players
• The risk associated with these projects is that they do not take place - or in a very different format .
Concluding Remarks