Download pdf - Zions Bank Economic Overview · Dow Breaks 21,000 – The Trump Bump 17,000 18,000 19,000 20,000 21,000 22,000 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Source: Federal

ZionsBankEconomicOverview

AssociationofFinancialPlannersofUtah• July20,2017

National Economic Conditions

DowBreaks21,000– TheTrumpBump

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

22,000

Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17

Source:FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis

DowReachesNewHeightsFollowingU.S.PresidentialElection

DOW: +18%NASDAQ:+21.5%S&P: +14.9%

CurrentLevelofConsumerConfidenceIndicatesEconomicProsperity

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

Jun-13

Sep-13

Dec-13

Mar-14

Jun-14

Sep-14

Dec-14

Mar-15

Jun-15

Sep-15

Dec-15

Mar-16

Jun-16

Sep-16

Dec-16

Mar-17

Jun-17

Above110indicateseconomicprosperity

Source:TheConferenceBoard

BusinessOptimismBoomsPostElection

Source:TradingEconomics,NFIBSmallBusinessOptimismIndex

Why?

Thou

sand

sCumulativeJobLossbyMonthsofRecession

Source:EulerHermesanalysisofBureauofLaborStatisticsData

Thou

sand

s

Source:EulerHermesanalysisofBureauofLaborStatisticsData

CumulativeJobLossbyMonthsofRecession

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Index

PeriodsfromValueScaledto100

2007Recession 2001Recession 1990Recession1981Recession 1980Recession 1973Recession

SlowerRecoverythanPastRecessions


SlowerRecoverythanPastRecessions

Trumponomics•RepealandreplacetheAffordableCareAct•Cutcorporateandincometaxes• Increasespendingoninfrastructureandmilitary•Reducegovernmentregulations•Renegotiatetradedeals

•Butcantheygetitdone…?

JuneJobIndicators

Indicator Expectation ActualTotalNonfarmPayrolls 170,000 222,000UnemploymentRate 4.3% 4.4%PrivatePayrolls 164,000 187,000MonthlyAverageHourlyWageGrowth 0.3% 0.2%

YearlyAverageHourlyWageGrowth 2.5% 2.6%

LaborForceParticipation 62.8%

Sources:WallstreetJournalandBureauofLaborStatistics

222,000JobsAddedinJune

-900

-700

-500

-300

-100

100

300

500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

PayrollChangeinth

ousand

s 8.7MillionJobsLost

16 MillionJobsRecovered

Source:BureauofLaborStatistics

JobGrowthBoom222,000JobsaddedinJune

126

237225

153

43

297 291

176

249

124

164 155

216232

50

207

152

222

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Apr-1

6

May-16

Jun-16

Jul-1

6

Aug-16

Sep-16

Oct-16

Nov-16

Dec-16

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-1

7

May-17

Jun-17

Thou

sand

sofEmployees


NationalEmploymentChangePercentChangeinNationalEmploymentbyIndustry:June2016toJune2017

0.6% 1.3%

2.0% 2.2%

3.1% 2.0%

-2.1% 0.7%

0.4% 3.1%

7.0%

-4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

GovernmentOtherServices

Leisure&HospitalityEd.&HealthServ.Prof.&Bus.Serv.FinancialActivity

InformationTrade,Trans.,Utilities

ManufacturingConstruction

Ntl.Res.&Mining

Total:1.6%


NationalEmploymentChangeTotalChangeinNumberofJobsbyIndustryinThousands:June2016toJune2017

13878

314494

624169

-61 180

49206

47

-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700





Ntl.Res.&Mining


UnemploymentRemainsLow

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

5.0%=FullEmployment


UnemploymentandUnderemploymentContinuetoDrop

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

U-6(Underemployed) U-3(Unemployment)


4.2%

7.1%

Long-TermUnemploymentDecreasing

0

2

4

6

8

1980 1983 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

Milli

ons

of P

erso

ns

Sources:FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis,Numbersarerounded

June2017:1.7 m

Unemployed for more than 27 weeks

56%

58%

60%

62%

64%

66%

68%

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics

LaborForceParticipationAmongLowestLevelinAlmost40Years

June201762.8%

Mar200067.3%

Apr197863.0%

Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics

62%

63%

64%

65%

66%

67%

68%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

LaborForceParticipationSeeingLittleChange

June:62.8%

BabyBoomersHeadforRetirement

20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 36% 38%

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2016

2017

U.S.ParticipationRate Age55+ShareofWorkingAgePop

U.SLFPR

Percent

Shareof55+

Source:ZionsBankAnalysisofFederalReserveBankofSt.Louis

CivilianLaborForceParticipationRate

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

1948

1951

1954

1957

1960

1963

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

2017

Men Women


JobOpeningsOutnumberHires

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

LevelinThou

sand

s

Hires Openings

FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis

WageGrowthStagnant

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2007– 2017Average2.4%

June20172.5%


WagesStagnantEvenAsUnemploymentFalls

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9%

10%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

AnnualWageGrowth UnemploymentRate

FullEmployment=5%


ProducerPriceIndexontheRise

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Year-to-YearChange


May2.4%

GrowthinConsumerSpendingUnderPar

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

PersonalConsumptionExpenditureYearlyPercentChange

Source:BureauofEconomicAnalysis

May1.4%

ConsumerSpendingDrivesEconomicGrowth

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

PersonalConsumption FixedInvestment NetExportsInventories Government RealGDPGrowth

Q12017GDP1.4%


TheU.S.DollarisStrong

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

TradeWeightedU.S.DollarIndex:Broad1973=100

EurocomparedtoU.S.Dollar

$0.80

$0.90

$1.00

$1.10

$1.20

$1.30

$1.40

$1.50

$1.60


PARITY

1.06

1.39

$6.00

$6.50

$7.00

$7.50

$8.00

$8.50

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2010Chinaallowstheyuantorise

Aug2015China

devaluestheyuanbylargestamountin20years

2001ChinajoinsWTO 2005

Chinaallowstheyuantorise

2008China

stopstheyuan’srise

U.S.DollarComparedtoChineseYuan


BritishPoundDroppedtoNewLowFollowingBrexit Vote

$1.00

$1.10

$1.20

$1.30

$1.40

$1.50

$1.60

$1.70

$1.80

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


BrexitVote

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90$100$110$120

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

OilPrices ActiveOilRigs

Source:BakerHughesandU.S.EnergyInformationAdministrationNote:Totalcountincludesoilandgasrigs

U.S.TotalRigCountRecoveringfromLowasOilPricesRise

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Source:U.S.FederalReserve

FederalFundsTargetRateSees4thIncreaseinOveraDecade

FederalFundsTargetRate=1.25

March2017FedRateIncreaseProjections

Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserve

1.4%

2.1%

3.0% 3.0%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

2017 2018 2019 LongRun

$0.00T

$0.50T

$1.00T

$1.50T

$2.00T

$2.50T

$3.00T

$3.50T

$4.00T

$4.50T

$5.00T

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Mortgage-Backed Securities U.S. Treasury Securities Federal Agency Debt Other

QE1 QE2 QE3Recession

ExplosionintheFederalReserve’sBalanceSheet

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

-1.0%

-0.50%

0.0%

0.50%

1.0%

1.50%

2.0%

2.50%

3.0%20

00

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017


YieldCurveShowingSignsofDistress10-yearminus2-yearspread

Utah Economic Conditions

PercentChange:2015to2016U.S.Rate=0.7%

Loss

0.2%to0.6%

1.5%+

0.0%to0.1%

NM0.0%

UT2.0%

AZ1.7%

CA0.7%

NV2.0%

OR1.7%

TX1.6%

OK0.4%

CO1.7%

WA1.8%

ID1.8%

MT1.0%

WY-0.2%

ND0.1%

SD0.9%

MN0.7%

NE0.7%

KS0.3%

IA0.4%

MO0.3%

AR0.3%

LA0.3%

WI0.2%

IL-0.3%

IN0.3%

OH0.1%

FL1.8%

TN 0.9%

KY 0.3%

MS0.0%

AL0.2%

GA1.1%

SC1.4%

NC 1.1%

VA0.5%

WV-0.5%

PA-0.1%

NY0.0%

ME0.2%

AK0.6%

HI0.2%

MA0.4%

VT-0.2%

NH0.4%

RI0.1%

CT-0.2%

NJ0.1%

DE0.8%

MD0.4%

MI0.1%

DC1.6%

KS0.0%

UtahPopulationFastest GrowinginU.S.

Source:U.S.CensusBureau

0.7%to1.4%

-20000-10000 0100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000

0300,000600,000900,000

1,200,0001,500,0001,800,0002,100,0002,400,0002,700,0003,000,0003,300,0003,600,000

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

NetMigration NaturalIncrease TotalPopulation

34,997

3,051,217

25,412

2017

f20

18f

Sources:U.S.CensusBureau;Datafrom2014onfromStateofUtahRevenueAssumptionsWorkingGroup

TotalPop

ulation

ComponentsofPopulationChange

e=estimate,f=forecast

UtahPopulationandComponentsofChange

UtahPopulationGrowthRatesByCounty

2015to2016StateAverage=2.0%

Box Elder2.2%

Cache2.2%

Rich1.0%

Weber 1.7%

Tooele3.1%

Salt Lake1.5%

Morgan3.1%

Summit2.1%

Daggett -1.4%

Utah3.0%

Wasatch4.7% Duchesne

-2.1% Uintah-3.7%

Juab4.2%

Sanpete2.1%

Carbon-0.2%

Emery-1.3% Grand

0.9%

Millard0.4%

Piute-2.5%

Garfield-0.1%

Sevier1.6%

Wayne0.0%

San Juan7.6%

Iron3.4%

Beaver1.9%

Washington3.1%

Kane3.0%

Davis 1.9%


1.0%to1.7%

0.0%to0.9%

1.8%to2.9%

Loss

3.0%+

UtahEmploymentGrowthHighest intheNation

NM0.9%

UT3.3%

AZ1.8%

CA1.5%

NV2.7%

OR2.4%

TX2.2%

OK0.1%

CO2.4%

WA2.4%

ID2.4%

MT1.6%

WY-1.4%

ND1.1%

SD1.3%

MN1.7%

NE1.2%

KS-0.3%

IA1.0%

MO1.7%

AR1.8%

WI1.4%

IL0.6%

IN1.4%

OH0.8%

FL2.7%

TN 1.9%

KY1.4%

MS0.2%

AL1.8%

GA2.4%

SC1.6%

NC 1.6%

VA1.1%

WV-1.0%

PA0.9%

NY1.6%

ME0.6%

AK-0.9%

HI1.3%

MA1.6%

VT0.5%

NH1.4%

RI1.5%

CT0.7%

NJ1.1%

DE0.9%

MD1.6%

MI1.7%

DC1.4%

1.6%to1.9%

2.0%+

1.0%to1.5%

0.0%to0.9%

PercentChangeinEmploymentforStates:May2016toMay2017U.S.Rate=1.6%

Loss

Note:SeasonallyAdjustedSource:BureauofLaborStatistics

LA0.5%

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,5001995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Thou

sand

sofEmployees

TotalNonfarmEmployment

Lossof92,000jobsfrom2007-2009

Gainof295,400jobsfromlowin

2009

Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics,TotalnonfarmseasonallyadjustedNote:Numbersroundedtonearestthousand

UtahTotalEmploymentatNewHighs

2.3% 2.0% 2.4% 2.1%

5.9% 1.6% 1.6%

3.5% 2.7%

5.6% -8.1%

-13% -8% -3% 2% 7%





Ntl.Res.&Mining

PercentChangeinUtahEmploymentbyIndustry:May2016toMay2017

Total:3.1%

UtahIndustriesSeeingGrowth

Source:UtahDepartmentofWorkforceServices

5,500800

3,3003,900

11,8001,300

6009,400

3,4005,200

-700

-3,000 -1,000 1,000 3,000 5,000 7,000 9,000 11,000 13,000





Ntl.Res.&Mining

Total:44,500

UtahIndustriesSeeingGrowthTotalChangeinUtahEmploymentbyIndustry:May2016toMay2017


UtahEmploymentChangeRatesByCountyMay2016toMay2017StateRate=3.2%

Source:UtahDepartmentofWorkforceServices;Notseasonallyadjusted

1.0%to3.2%

0.0%to0.9%

5.0%+

3.3%to4.9%

Loss

Box Elder 3.6% Cache2.0% Rich

-1.2%Weber 1.9%

Tooele5.6%

Salt Lake2.9%

Morgan3.3%

Daggett -7.8%

Utah4.6%


2.1% Uintah-6.0%

Juab2.6%

Sanpete3.3%

Carbon-5.4%

Emery-2.1% Grand

0.9%

Millard1.8%

Piute5.2%

Garfield5.3%

Sevier2.2%

Wayne-2.8%

San Juan0.5%

Iron5.2%

Beaver-2.5%

Washington5.1%

Kane1.8%

Da1is 3.0%

Summit3.3%

UtahUnemploymentRate10thth LowestintheNation

May2017U.S.Rate=4.3%

HI2.7%

NH2.9%

NM6.6%

UT3.2%

AZ5.1%

CA4.7%

NV4.7%

OR3.6%

TX4.8%

OK4.3%

CO2.3%

WA4.5%

ID3.2%

MT3.9%

WY4.1%

ND2.5%

SD2.9%

MN3.7%

NE2.9%

KS3.7%

IA3.1%

MO3.9%

AR3.2%

LA5.7%

WI3.1%

IL4.6%

IN3.2%

OH4.9%

FL4.3%

TN 4.0%

KY5.0%

MS4.9%

AL4.9%

GA4.9%

SC4.1%

NC 4.5%

VA3.8%

WV4.5%

PA5.0%

NY4.4%

ME3.2%

AK6.6%

MA4.2%

VT3.1%

RI4.1%

CT4.9%

NJ4.1%

DE4.7%

MD4.3%

MI4.2%

DC6.0%


6.0%+

5.5%to5.9%

4.8%to5.4%

4.0%to4.7%

3.9%orless

UtahUnemployment

RatesByCounty

May2017

StateRate=3.2%


4.0%to5.9%

6.0%to6.9%

3.1%orlower

3.2%to3.9%

7.0%+

Box Elder3.3%

Cache2.8%

Rich3.6%

Tooele3.8%

Morgan2.9%

Summit3.1%

Utah2.9%


5.9% Uintah6.6%

Juab3.1%

Sanpete3.8%

Carbon5.2%

Emery5.4% Grand

5.4%

Millard3.6%

Piute5.4%

Garfield7.8%

Sevier4.0%

Wayne7.9%

San Juan7.4%

Iron4.5%

Beaver4.5%

Washington3.4%

Kane3.3%

Daggett 4.4%Davis3.1%

Salt Lake3.2%

Weber 3.6%


PercentChangeinPersonalIncome:2015–2016U.S.=3.6%;UT=5.6% NH

4.7%

NM2.1%

UT5.6%

AZ4.3%

CA4.5%

NV5.9%

OR4.5%

TX2.9%

OK0.6%

CO3.9%

WA4.8%

ID3.6%

MT2.3%

WY-1.7%

ND-1.5%

SD1.2%

MN3.0%

NE2.8%

KS2.8%

IA2.3%

MO3.5%

AR3.2%

LA1.5%

WI3.1%

IL3.1%

IN3.9%

OH3.0%

FL4.9%

TN 3.9%

KY2.6%

MS3.2%

AL3.3%

GA4.8%

SC4.4%

NC 4.1%

VA3.6%

WV1.0%

PA2.9%

NY2.9%

ME3.7%

AK-1.0%

HI4.5%

MA4.3%

VT3.3%

RI3.1%

CT3.0%

NJ3.2%

DE2.9%

MD3.7%

MI3.6%

DC4.5%

3.6%to3.9%(atorabovetheU.S.rate)2.0%to3.5%

4.0%ormore

0.0%to1.9%Decrease

UTPersonalIncomeGrowth2nd HighestintheNation

Source:Kem C.GardnerInstituteAnalysisofBEAdata

TenMostDiversifiedEconomiesintheCountry:Hachman Index2015

95.5 96.0 96.5 97.0 97.5 98.0 98.5

OhioPennsylvaniaTennessee

ArizonaCaliforniaMissouriIllinois

NorthCarolinaGeorgia

Utah

Note:AHachman Indexvalueof100meansthatthedistributionofemploymentamongindustriesisexactlythesameasthenation.Thecloserthevalueto100,themorediversethestate’seconomy.

UtahHastheMostDiverseEconomyintheNation

2015U.S.Rate=13.5%,2015UtahRate=9.3%


NM19.7%

UT9.3%

AZ17.2%

CA13.9%

NV13.0%

OR11.9%

TX14.7%

OK14.2%

CO9.9%

WA11.4%

ID12.3%

MT11.9%

WY9.8%

ND10.7%

SD13.9%

MN7.8%

NE10.3%

KS14.2%

IA10.4%

MO9.8%

AR16.1%

LA18.6%

WI11.4%

IL10.9%

IN13.5%

OH13.6%

FL16.2%

TN 14.7%

KY19.5%

MS19.1%

AL16.3%

GA18.1%

SC14.3%

NC 15.3%

VA10.9%

WV14.5%

PA12.3%

NY14.2%

ME12.3%

AK9.2%

HI10.9%

MA11.5%

VT10.7%

NH7.3%

RI11.8%

CT9.1%

NJ11.2%

DE11.1%

MD9.6%

MI12.8%

DC16.6%

10.1% to 11.0%11.1% to 13.5% (at or below the U.S. rate)

10.0% or less

13.6% to 16.0%

16.1% or more

UtahPovertyRate5th LowestintheNation

ConsumerSentimentontheRise

5060708090100110120130

May-12

Aug-12

Nov-12

Feb-13

May-13

Aug-13

Nov-13

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

U.S.ConsumerConfidenceIndex:118.9ZionsBankUtahConsumerAttitudeIndex:115.2

Above110indicateseconomicprosperity

Sources:ConferenceBoardandCiceroGroup

Source:U.S.CPIfromNationalBureauofLaborStatisticsandWasatchFrontCPIfromCiceroGroup

-1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5%

Aug-11

Nov-11

Feb-12

May-12

Aug-12

Nov-12

Feb-13

May-13

Aug-13

Nov-13

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

UnitedStatesCPI:+1.9%

ZionsBankWasatchFrontCPI:+3.3%

ConsumerPriceIndexYearlyGrowthUnitedStatesvs.WasatchFront

UtahMedianHomeSalePriceSurpassesPre-RecessionHighs

$100,000$120,000$140,000$160,000$180,000$200,000$220,000$240,000$260,000$280,000$300,000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

U.S. Utah

Source:Graphiq.comreportingdatafromCoreLogic

Source:Graphiq.com

00.20.40.60.81

1.21.41.61.8

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Percentageoftotalhomesinforeclosureprocess

U.S. Utah

UtahMaintainsLowerPercentageofForeclosuresthanNation

UtahResidentialConstructionActivityContinuestoRise

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016e

Single-FamilyUnits Multifamily Total

2017f

Forecast

Source:StateofUtahRevenueAssumptionsGroup,Moody’sEconomy.com,andHISGlobalInsight

UtahValueofNewResidentialConstructionIncreasing

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016e

2018f

Residential Nonresidential Renovations Total

Forecast

MillionsofD

ollars

Sources:StateofUtahRevenueAssumptionsWorkingGroup,Moody’sEconomy.com,IHSGlobalInsights

e=estimatef=forecast

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

RetailSales

HomePrices

PersonalIncome

UnemploymentRate

NonfarmEmployment

Population

2015 2016e 2017f 2018f

UtahEconomicIndicators2015-2018f

• Nationalandinternationaluncertainty• Continuedlowenergyprices• Trumponomics success?• Depressedbusinessinvestment• Unstableinflationoutlook• Skillsmismatch• Lowproductivitygrowth• OverregulationfromWashington

EconomicNegativesEconomicPositives• Strongconsumerandbusinessconfidence

• Housinggrowth• Trumponomics progrowthagenda• StrongpopulationgrowthintheIntermountainWest

• Utahhasadiversifiedeconomy• Utahjobgrowthbestinthecountry• Utahinflationisstrong

RobertSpendloveEconomicandPublicPolicyOfficer

Email:[email protected]:801-560-5394

ZionsBank,ADivisionofZB,N.A.MemberFDIC.

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