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Global Automotive Trends 2013

The “Digital Car”

Connectivity Hype and E-Car Recession

New York, March 2013

March 2013 2005 – March 2013 Period

Methodology Combining international expert views with global media trends

Research Institute PRIME Research in cooperation with the World Car Awards

Global Automotive Trends 2013

World Car Awards

Automotive Expert Panel

PRIME Research

Automotive Media Panel

66 Top Automotive Journalists

All World Car of the Year Jurors and

Members of the Steering Committee

Top 1.000 Opinion Leading Media

TV, Print, Online Media

EU (G5), USA, BRIC, Japan Countries

Full Benchmark [> 100 brands] Brands

All automotive coverage Scope

Trend 1: Connectivity | The “Digital Car“

Infotainment Systems are essential to appeal to new and young customers.

Advanced Driver Assistance Systems with focus on Safety are key.

Scepticism towards autonomous driving.

Trend 2: Efficiency

Fuel efficiency technologies are top trending topics in 2013.

Affordable light weight technologies are seen as an important addition.

Trend 3: Plug-in Hybrids

Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles are the most promising technology of today.

Pure Battery Electric Vehicles are facing increasing scepticism: ongoing “e-car recession”.

But: Four new e-cars highly anticipated in 2013:

Top Automotive Trends 2013 | Overview

Tesla Model S

BMW i3

Nissan Leaf

Renault Zoe

Global Automotive Trends 2013 4

Infotainment Systems

Advanced Driver

Assistance Systems

Content

Top Automotive Trends New Energy Cars



Connectivity

Efficiency

Plug-in Hybrids

0% 10% 20% 30%

Design

Light Weight

E-Cars

Budget Cars

Marketing, Image

Safety

Cost Savings

Automotive Trends 2013 Connectivity, Efficiency and Plug-in Hybrids are the Top Trends in 2013.

2013

“What will be the most important trends in the automotive industry in 2013?”

Top

Trends

Top 3


Efficiency

Connectivity

Connectivity

Efficiency

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

E-Cars

Plug-in Hybrids

Cost Savings

Design

Budget Cars

Safety

Marketing, Image

Light Weight

Automotive Trends | Comparison 2012 to 2013 E-Cars are losing credit in 2013. Light Weight made it into the top 5 trends for the first time.

2012

“What will be the most important trends in the automotive industry in 2012 / 2013?”

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Plug-in Hybrids

Design

Light Weight

E-Cars

Budget Cars

Marketing, Image

Safety

Cost Savings

2013

► Decreasing

importance

Top 2

Top 5



Advanced Driver

Assistance Systems

Content




Ongoing “E-Car Recession” Battery electric vehicles are facing increasing scepticism: they arrived in “reality”.

2,0%

2,9%

4,8% 5,1%

4,6% 4,3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

100% = Total automotive media coverage in respective year

Media Panel | Share of coverage Expert Panel | Key quotes

Emerging Trend Hype Slowdown

“Renault Zoe - If it wins the resistance against

EV in the European market, the doors for this

kind of car will be open worldwide.”

“The death of electric engines.”

“Backpedaling on electrics without losing face and

while getting most out of the huge investments made.”

“Their market-share is irrelevant and none

offer technological breakthroughs.”

“Just delivering high-volume, small-car

performance and comfort at premium mid-

segment prices won't work for any of them.”

“Will electrification be identified as a failure?”

“The continual, gradual electrification of the motor car.”

-

-

-

-

-

+

+


Plug-in hybrids

Electric vehicles with

range extender

Fuel cell vehicles

Battery electric vehicles

1,88

2,42

0,67

0,44

2,16

1,54

-0,02

-0,42

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

Most promising technology: plug-in hybrids Plug-in hybrids are the most promising technology of today. Full electric vehicles are facing increasing

scepticism.

“From your point of view, what are the most promising powertrain options regarding e-mobility?”

very poor very good mixed

2012 Expert Panel

2013 Expert Panel

“Plug-in hybrids will be the most popular

theme in 2013.”

+

“Plug-in hybrids are currently on a

winning path.”

+


Tesla Model S

BMW i3

Nissan Leaf

Renault Zoe

Chevrolet Volt

smart ed

VW e-Golf

VW XL1

MB SLS electric drive

Volvo V60 PHEV

Mahindra Reva E20

Renault Twizy

Mitsubishi i-MiEV

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Top 4 EV

models in 2013

Seen as a possible breakthrough-model

Price leadership

Groundbreaking new concept

Range, performance

2013 Expert Panel

“From your point if view, what are the most important EV models this year?”

Top New Energy Cars Tesla Model S, BMW i3, Nissan Leaf and Renault Zoe are highly regarded e-cars in 2013.


Japan

Germany

USA

France

China

UK

Italy

Spain

2,11

1,34

1,24

1,09

0,91

0,69

-0,45

-0,93

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

Japan is the key driving market for e-mobility Japan is seen as the key driving market behind e-mobility, followed by Germany and the USA. China

follows in a distant fifth.

“Which markets will be key drivers for e-mobility?”

2012 Expert Panel

very poor very good mixed



Advanced Driver

Assistance Systems

Content




Internet-based

Infotainment

Systems

Driver Assistance

Navigation

Communication

Connectivity Trends 2013 Internet-based infotainment systems will be the most important connectivity topic in 2013 – in

addition to advanced driver assistance systems.

“What will be the most important connectivity trends in the automotive industry in 2013?”

0% 20% 40% 60%

2013


“Yes, as it becomes a priority for

young buyers.” “It is becoming a key factor,

because younger people do not care

on powertrains, maximum speed and

emotional driving anymore.”

“Not yet but is going to grow once

they sort out the basics.”

“No. Ease of use is, but connectivity

is not critical. It's also very difficult to

communicate, given that average

readers just want to know if they can

plug the phone in or not.”

Already

[29%]

Increasingly

[42%]

Not yet

[17%] No

[12%]

Connectivity is a key factor in evaluating a car For 71% of automotive journalists, connectivity already is or is quickly becoming a key factor in

evaluating a car.

“Is connectivity a key factor in evaluating a car?”



Advanced Driver

Assistance Systems

Content




Brake Assist Systems

Pre-Crash Systems

Intelligent Lights

Pedestrian Detection

Blind Spot Detection

Adaptive Cruise Control

Automated Crash Reporting

Traffic Sign Recognition

Attention Assist

Nightvision Systems

Lane Keeping Systems

Park Assist

Autonomous Driving

1,98

1,84

1,73

1,59

1,57

1,55

1,35

1,31

1,06

1,04

0,92

0,73

-0,16

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

Advanced Driver Assistance ‘Brake assistance’, ‘pre-crash systems’ and ‘intelligent lights’ are the top safety trends 2013.

‘Autonomous Driving’ is evaluated most sceptically.

“How important and desirable are the following ‘Advanced Driver Assistance’ features from your point of view?”

Top Safety

Features

not important at all very important mixed

2013 Expert Panel


“Yes - manufacturer's are moving

more and more in that direction”

“In certain environments that can be

supported by infrastructure, yes.”

“Yes, but fortunately well after I am

retired.”

“No. Not completely because of unique

challenges of certain driving situations

that only humans can handle.”

Definitely

[47%]

Yes, under certain

conditions

[23%]

Yes, but I

dread that day!

[19%]

No

[11%]

Autonomous Driving 89% of the journalists believe in the self-driving car in the future, yet 19% ‘dread that day’ and 11%

are completely sceptical.

“Do you believe that vehicles will drive by themselves some day?”



Advanced Driver

Assistance Systems

Content




USB-Audio Interface

Web-Based Traffic Information

Bluetooth Audio Streaming

Web Access (3G/4G connectivity)

Web-Based Infotainment

Webradio

Satellite Radio

Access to Search Engines

Apps

Operator Services

(e.g. reservations, bookings)

2,27

2,22

2,08

2,00

1,24

1,20

1,06

1,00

0,76

0,55

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

Infotainment Features Audio streaming from personal devices like smartphones or iPods/MP3 players is clearly preferred over

radio options like ‘Webradio’ or ‘Sattelite Radio’.

“How important and desirable are the following in-car infotainment features from your point of view?”


2013 Expert Panel


“No, I should think myself what I want to do.”

“Absolutely yes.”

“A qualified yes. The vehicle knows (for

the airbags) if the passenger seat is

occupied--why can't the passenger be

allowed to enter data while in motion?”

“Some. The complicated ones.”

“Some of them, yes (e.g.

access to internet, facebook).”

“Yes, some of them should be

disabled and specially ones

that need you to take your

eyes off the road to look at

things that one can't decipher

with feel specially touch screen

systems. For these systems the

control by voice functionality

needs to be well developed

which it is not yet.”

Yes, disable functionalities

while driving…

[35%] Some…

[15%]

No!

[50%]

Infotainment while driving | Call for restrictions? Half of the expert panel thinks there should be no restrictions regarding the functionalities while driving,

while the other half welcomes restrictions for at least difficult or complex features.

“Should functionalities be disabled when the vehicle is moving?”


“Not myself, but the younger

generation will do!”

“[…] while in a jam, I could use it.

And I understand very well other

people, who would.”

“Only when the vehicle is stopped.”

“Not at all. This is a point of

great concern.”

“Definitely NOT.”

Yes, important for some

people… but should not be

distracting…

[31%]

No!

[69%]

Social Media access while driving Most experts do not wish to be socially connected while driving themselves – but they see it as a

feature of crucial importance for the younger generation.

“Do you wish to have access to social media while driving?”


Smart-Phone Connectivity

(Integration of mobile devices)

Phone Functionality

E-Mail Functionality

Communication Apps

(e.g. Whats App,

Facebook Messenger)

2,55

2,45

0,94

0,35

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

Communication Features Somewhat critical attitude towards functionalities beyond smartphone integration and phone

functionality, with mixed acceptance of e-mails and chat functionalities.

“How important and desirable are the following communication features from your point of view?”


2013 Expert Panel


Navigation

(with online traffic informations)

Sat Nav-Safety interaction

(predictive route data)

Position-related

Information Systems

Navigation use for Range and

Efficiency Optimisation

2,59

2,00

1,75

1,65

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

Navigation / Telematics Features Wide-spread and very positive reception towards technologies that improve or enhance navigation and

telematics systems.

“How important and desirable are the following navigation / telematics features from your point of view?”


2013 Expert Panel


Displays / Instruments

Head-Up Display

Touchpad / Touchwheel

Voice Control

Gesture Recognition

2,37

1,80

1,51

0,96

0,17

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

Human / Machine Interface While reserved attitudes towards ‘Gesture Recognition’ may have been predicted, it is probably

surprising that some automotive journalists still have doubts surrounding ‘Voice Control’.

“How important and desirable are the following human / machine interface features from your point of view?”


2013 Expert Panel


“Hand input. Stick to haptic joysticks and

carefully thought-out button hierarchies.”

“Hand. I have not found a voice

system that works properly.”

“Voice. Always better in theory but no

automaker has perfected it yet.” “Voice input, when efficiently executed.”

By Hand

[46%]

By Hand, because by voice

is not reliable enough

[34%]

By Voice,

if it worked

[9%]

By Voice

[11%]

Voice or hand input Strong concerns regarding voice input from the leading automotive journalists, with only 11% currently

preferring input by voice. A further 9% stated that they would prefer voice input if it worked correctly.

“Do you prefer voice input or input by hand?”


“Touch screen is faster and easier to use”

“Push-and-turn is better in a moving car.

Touch-screen works best on a display at a

consumer clinic or at an auto show display, not

in a moving vehicle.”

“Best is a mixture of both.”

“Touch-screens are dangerous because the only

way to confirm interaction is by sight.”

“Touch-screens are temperamental and take too

much attention away from the road.”

“The touch-screen is great when it works but

annoying when you have to press a number of

times before it activates.”

“Touch-screens are great if done right (Tesla),

horrible if done wrong (early Ford).”

“Touch-screens are too distant, and getting

smudged with fingerprints.”

Push & Turn button

[45%]

A combination of both

[15%]

Touch-screen display

[40%]

Touch-screen display vs. push-and-turn button Despite a near draw, push and turn buttons are generally preferred, either due to safety reasons or

due to the lack of refinement provided by most touch-screen displays.

“Do you prefer a touch-screen display or a push-and-turn button?”

Contact

Dr. Rainer Mathes

PRIME Research

President

[email protected]

Bernd Hitzemann

PRIME Research

Project Manager

[email protected]

Jens Meiners

World Car Awards

Director Steering Committee World Car Awards

[email protected]

PRIME Ann Arbor (USA)

PRIME New York (USA)

PRIME Montevideo (Uruguay)

PRIME São Paulo (Brazil)

PRIME Shanghai (China)

PRIME Delhi-Gurgaon (India)

PRIME Oxford (UK)

PRIME Mainz (Germany)

PRIME Zurich (Switzerland)