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« The Quaternary Marketing » The 4th and 5th Marketing Revolutions:

Data Scientist Age and Bayesian Paradox !

Bruno TEBOUL

Paris, 29th may 2012

The author: Bruno Teboul

Corporate Digital Marketing Director

(The european leader in ICT)

Master of Epistemology

(1993 - University of Paris 12)

Post Graduate Diploma in Cognitive Neurosciences

(1994 - Ecole Polytechnique)

Executive MBA

(2003 - HEC/UCLA)

PhD student in Marketing & Management Science

(2012 University Paris-Dauphine)

Bruno Teboul

The 4th marketing revolution:

Data Scientist Age…

Bruno Teboul



Bruno Teboul

« The BIG DATA »:

« The BIG DATA »:



Bruno Teboul

In a new paper titled, " Closing the Marketing

Capabilities Gap," Wharton School professor George

Day addresses the disconnect between the demands of

markets and the ability of firms to meet those demands.

Such a gap, he points out, is "costing firms profitability

now and competitiveness in the future."

Using Day's paper -- and also a new IBM study based

on conversations with 1,700 chief marketing officers

worldwide -- Day and colleague David Reibstein talked

with Knowledge@Wharton about the growing flood of

data, new knowledge sharing technology, the socially

networked and ever demanding consumer, and how

some companies are successfully building their

customer base, among other topics.

« BIG DATA »:



Bruno Teboul

Unfortunately, older data processing

technologies (such as Relational Database

Management Systems, or RDBMS) are

simply not capable of processing data in

volumes that the industry has collectively

coined “Big Data” volumes that are in

terabytes/petabytes.

As such, we position the consumer as the

only real appreciating asset and we tie

everything together through the use of

Big Data.



Bruno Teboul

« BIG DATA »


The Data Scientist Age…

Data enables us to understand customers and to manage contact

and content strategy. Data is a core component of integrated

marketing and, via an integrated approach, we can speak with a

single voice across channels and lines of businesses.

However, to succeed in a meaningful way at that level of

customer centricity, we have to manage all that data in a way that

holistically fuels customer engagement and experience. That

effort requires a whole ecosystem of people, processes, and

technology.

Even the most sophisticated and modern businesses today are

surprisingly ill equipped to manage even the most basic digital

marketing standards and activities, let alone jettison forward into

the new world of Big Data techniques. Bruno Teboul



A data scientist represents an

evolution from the business or data

analyst role.

Anjul Bhambhri, vice president of

big data products at IBM, says, “A

data scientist is somebody who is

inquisitive, who can stare at data

and spot trends. It's almost like a

Renaissance individual who really

wants to learn and bring change to

an organization.”

A Data Scientist need to have the

mathematics, statistics, and

computer science skills in order to

really work with data and be able to

analyze it…

Bruno Teboul


The Data Scientist Age…

Bruno Teboul


The Bayesian paradox…

Bruno Teboul


« The bayesian paradox »…

“The Bayesian Paradox”:

Human beings are not Bayesian, as it is necessary to

use the power of Bayesian computation (through the

language R ) such probabilistic modeling for predictive

analysis.

Bruno Teboul


« The bayesian paradox »…

Bruno Teboul



Daniel Kahneman

Intuitive statistical judgment and inference have

been most famously studied within the heuristics

and biases tradition of Amos Tversky and Daniel

Kahneman .

The idea is that people assess uncertainty by use

of simple heuristics that are often effective but can

lead to cognitive biases.

Amos Tversky

Bruno Teboul

Bruno Teboul



End of the Homo Economicus Myth !

Bruno Teboul

John Maynard Keynes Herbert Simon Pierre Boudieu Ludwig Von Mises



Bruno Teboul

Therefore, the judgment can not be perfectly

predicted by the standard Bayesian.

The hypothesis of a "man statistician" in nature no

longer holds and the effects of this scientific

statement are serious consequences for the basic

tenets of traditional marketing.

It is both notable and regrettable that the 13th

edition of Marketing Management by Philip Kotler

dedicates only a single page "with heuristics"

whereas 800 pages are dedicated to the

discoveries of the psychology of reasoning and

cognitive neuroscience, which refute the theory of

"homo economicus“, the conceptual basis of

traditional marketing, the legacy of the

microeconomics of the same period.


The bayesian paradox…

Bruno Teboul

The 5th marketing

revolution:


Bruno Teboul



Bruno Teboul