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Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: Regional Perspective

May 24, 2006

Regional Anatomy I Ken JIMBO

Regionalism in Asia-Pacific / East AsiaPolitical & Security Dimension

1) April 13 Overview and Introduction: What is Regionalism?

2) April 20 Regionalism & Regional Integration

3) April 27 Regionalism in Asia

4) May 11 East Asian Community and East Asian Summit

5) May 18 New Dynamics of Security in East Asia

6) May 24 Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: Regional Perspective

Review 1) New Dynamics of Security in East Asia (2001-Present)

Strategic Circumstances

US Strategy and Engagement in East Asia

Japan-US Alliance / Korea-US Alliance Renovated

Cooperative Security: Multi-Layered Cooperation

Ad-hoc Functional Mechanisms

　　 Members

Functions

Inclusive / Regional（ Geographical

Cooperation）

Exclusive / Functional（ Regional Security

Complex）

ForcefulCompetitive

(Deterrence/Response)

(Collective Security)

Japan-US Alliance　　　　

Korea-US Alliance

UnforcefulCooperative

（ CBM / PD ）

Shanghai Cooperation Organization

ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF)

Shangri-la Dialogue

Proliferation Security Initiative

Anti-Terrorism Cooperation

Non-Traditional Security

Review 2) New Dynamics of Security in East Asia

Terrorism as a National Security Threat

September 11, 2001 World Trade Center Bldg. （ NYC ） Department of Defense (Washington DC)

More than 3000 had died Definition of “War”

“More than 1000 dead in a conbat” Rhetric of “War against Terror”

The New Age of Terrorism

New Trends of Terrorism Terrorism has become bloodier. Terrorist have developed new financial resources, so

that they are less dependent on state sponsors. Terrorists have evolved new model of organization. Terrorists can now wage global campaigns. Terrorists have effectively exploited new

communications technologies. Some terrorists have moved beyond tactics to

strategy, although none of them have achieved their stated long range goals.

― Brian Jenkins, “The New Age of Terrorism” (RAND, 2006)

Terrorism has become bloodier

Death 　　　 Event 　　　　　　　　　　　 Suspect3000+ NYC/Washington DC (2001) Al-Qaeda477 Iran Avadan Arson (1979) Anti-Govt Group412 Massacre in Algeria (1997) GIA270 Pan-Am 103 Bombing (1988) Libya241 Beirut US Marine Corp (1983) Islamic Front223 Kenya / Tanzania (1998) Al-Qaeda168 Oklahoma Bldg (1995) Mcbay&Nichols115 Korean Air Bombing (1987) North Korea

Casualty5500 Aum Salin Gas Attack (1995) Aum-Shinrikyo4000 Kenya / Tanzania (1998) Al-Qaeda

Spatial Analysis of 9-11 AttackSpatial Analysis of 9-11 Attack

SudanSudan （（ terterrorist rorist

cells/trainingcells/training））

SudanSudan （（ terterrorist rorist


Afghanistan Afghanistan (HQ/training/financing)(HQ/training/financing)

Afghanistan Afghanistan (HQ/training/financing)(HQ/training/financing)

Saudi Saudi ArabiaArabia （（ finanfinan

cingcing））

Saudi Saudi ArabiaArabia （（ finanfinan

cingcing））

Indonesia/Indonesia/PhilippinesPhilippines （（ terrorist terrorist


Indonesia/Indonesia/PhilippinesPhilippines （（ terrorist terrorist


Russia Russia

(weapons)(weapons)

Russia Russia

(weapons)(weapons)

PakistanPakistan

(terrorist (terrorist cells)cells)

PakistanPakistan

(terrorist (terrorist cells)cells)

EuropeEurope

(recruitin(recruiting)g)

EuropeEurope

(recruitin(recruiting)g) USUS（（ terroristerroris

t t cells/trainingcells/training

））

USUS（（ terroristerrorist t


Terrorist Organizations (Al-Terrorist Organizations (Al-Qaeda)Qaeda)

Sub-Sub-HQHQ

(Mutant)(Mutant)

Sub-Sub-HQHQ

Sub-Sub-HQHQ

Main HQMain HQ

= = Terrorist CellTerrorist Cell Hub CellHub Cell

SupporterSupporter

Sleeper CellSleeper Cell

Patterns of TerrorismUS Perspective

Conventional Conventional WeaponsWeapons

Non-TraditionalNon-TraditionalWeaponsWeapons

Domestic Domestic TerrorismTerrorism

　 OverseasOverseasTerrorismTerrorism

World Trade Center Bombing (1993)World Trade Center Bombing (1993)

9.11 terrorism9.11 terrorism ／／ Anthrax (2001)Anthrax (2001)

Kenya/Tanzania US Embassy Bombing (1998)

Aum Shinrikyo Salin Gas Attack (1996)

Typology of International Terrorism

Territory-oriented Terrorism Europe / Middle East

Palestine (PLA) / Northern Ireland / Bask / Kosovo Asia

Sri Lanka / Kashmir / Ache / MILF

Ideal-oriented Terrorism Political Terrorism

Far Left / Far Right / Anarchist Religious Terrorism

Islamic Fundamentalist / Christian Fundamentalist Religious Cults

Social Issue-oriented Terrorism Anti-abortion / Animal Protection / Environmental

Preservation Personal Delusion Terrorism

Unabomber

Indigenous Indigenous MeasuresMeasures

Cooperation Cooperation with Allies with Allies and Friendsand Friends

Regional Regional CooperationCooperation

Global Global CooperationCooperation

Terrorist Terrorist OrganizatioOrganizationn

SurroundinSurrounding g EnvironmenEnvironmentt

Ｉ　Ｉ　PreventionPrevention

Information Information AnalysisAnalysis

InvestigationInvestigation

Border Border ControlControl

Intelligence Intelligence SharingSharing

Capacity Capacity BuildingBuilding

RecommendationRecommendationEvaluationEvaluationAssesmentAssesment

IntelligenceIntelligence

ＩＩ　ＩＩ　ConsequencConsequence e ManagemenManagementt

Anti-Anti-terrorism terrorism ExerciseExercise

urban-urban-suburban suburban coordinationcoordination

Cooperation Cooperation in case of in case of emergencyemergency

Joint SeminarJoint Seminar

ＩＩＩ　ＩＩＩ　Anti-Anti-Terrorism Terrorism and Policingand Policing

InvestigationInvestigationTrialTrialSubduementSubduement

Cooperation Cooperation on on Investigation, Investigation, Justice, Justice, MilitaryMilitary

Information Information SharingSharing

Joint ActionJoint Action

Information Information SharingSharing Fact FindingFact Finding

IV.IV.　　New New MeasuresMeasures

Lessons Lessons LearnedLearned New PactNew Pact New ConceptNew Concept

New TreatyNew Treaty

Norm Norm CreationCreation

Categorization of Counter-Terrorism

Source: Naofumi Miyasaka (2004)Source: Naofumi Miyasaka (2004)

US Strategy on Anti-/Counter- Terrorism(1) “Patterns of Global Terrorism” (-2003)

Patterns of Global Terrorism Officially recognizing more than 30 terrorist

organizations

Four Policy Principles on Counter Terrorism make no concessions to terrorists and strike no deals bring terrorists to justice to their crimes isolate and apply pressure on states that sponsor

terrorism to force them to change their behavior Bolster the counterterrorist capabilities of those

countries that work with the US and require assistance

―US State Department ”Patterns of Global Terrorism” (2003)

US Strategy on Anti-/Counter- Terrorism (2) “US Strategy for Combating Terrorism” (2003)

Terrorist Organizations in Asia (1)cf “Patterns of Global Terrorism” (2003)

Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF)-Mindanao Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF)-Mindanao Kumplan Mujahideen Malaysia (KMM)-Malaysia Pattani United Liberation Organization (PULO) Yousif Longpi-Indonesia Jemaah Islamiah (JI) - Riduan Isamuddin:

Ties to Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, Zacarias Moussaoui, Khalid al-Mihdar, Nawaf al-Hazmi-2000 Al Qaeda Summit in Kuala Lumpur

Abu-Sayyaf Group (ASG) - Philippines Tamil Tigers - Phuket, Thailand Sri Lankan Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)

These organizations are all related through their shared ideology of radical Islamic nationalism revolving around the preservation of Islamic culture in response to real and perceived aggression.

Islamic Jihad Group -Throughout Central Asia & South Asia Japanese Red Army - Japan East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) - Western Xinjiang pro

vince/China Cambodian Freedom Fighters - Cambodia & U.S. Alex Boncayao Brigade (ABB) - Philippines Communist Party of Philippines / New People’s Army AUM Shinrikyo (AUM) - Japan & Russia Abu Nidal Organization (ANO)-Asia, Middle East and Europe

Terrorist Organizations in Asia (2)

Southeast Asia as Terrorist Bed

Areas with Major Islamic Population Middle East 19.5% (238,000,000) Indonesia 17% (200,000,000) South Asia 25% (300,000,000) Africa 20% (240,000,000) Turkey 10% (125,000,000)

Characteristic of Southeast Asia’s Extremists Muslim Youth Movement Diffused Centralized Command & Control External Support and Recruitment Early Stages of Organizational Development Gaining Momentum in Technics and Efficiency (eg Bali B

ombing)

Regional Cooperation in Asia on Combating Terrorism

APEC APEC Action Plan for Combating the Financing of Terrorism (2002) APEC Counter Terrorism Action Plans (2003) Counter-Terrorism Task Force (2003) Fund for Regional Trade and Security Initiative (2004)

ARF Statement on Measures Against Terrorist Financing (2002) Statement on Cooperative counter-terrorist action on border

security (2003) Statement Strengthening Transport Security Against International

Terrorism (2004) Statement on Sharing and Intelligence Exchange and Document

Integrity and Security in Enhancing Cooperation to Combat Terrorism and Other Transnational Crimes(2005)

ASEAN+3 Joint Statement (2001-2005)

Bilateral and Ad-hoc Cooperationon Combating Terrorism

Regional Groupings Bali Process

Bali Regional Ministerial Meeting on Counter-Terrorism (2004) Legal Issue Working Group

Southeast Asia Center for Counter-Terrorism Malaysia

Bilateral Cooperation Japan-(ROK, Australia, Russia, EU) Among ASEAN Member States Australia (Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand)

Ad-hoc (functional) Cooperation Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI): Japan, Australia,

Singapore Container Security Initiative (CSI) : Japan, China, Singapore,

Malaysia Taiwan

Globalism / Regionalism / Bilateralism

Economic Sphere Security SphereEconomic Sphere Security Sphere

Global FrameworkGlobal Framework 　　 GATT / IMF UN / MultinationalGATT / IMF UN / Multinational

Mega-RegionalismMega-Regionalism APEC ARF / OSCE APEC ARF / OSCE

Regionalism Regionalism EU / ASEAN +3 EU / ASEAN EU / ASEAN +3 EU / ASEAN

Coalition Coalition Multilateral FTAs Anti-Terrorism Multilateral FTAs Anti-Terrorism

Bilateralism Bilateralism Bilateral FTAs Bilateral Alliance Bilateral FTAs Bilateral Alliance