Telecommunications
Telecommunications Forecasts
Telecommunications Forecasts for the New Year
Capital Expenditures
Capital Expenditures
Capital Expenditures
We forecast a 10% increase (2006 over 2005) in telecommunications capital expenditures
1. In 2006, we predict h-s access will achieve 48% - 50% penetration by year’s end.
Household Penetration of H-S Accesses
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
20002001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Household Penetration of H-S Accesses
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
20002001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
1. In 2006, we predict h-s access will achieve 48% - 50% penetration by year’s end.
2 . For 2006, we predict that the telcos will achieve parity with the cable companies by the end of the year.
Forecast for xDSLs and Cable Modems
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
xDSL
Cable Modems
Forecast for 2006 xDSL Overtqaking CMs
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Parity!!
We predict Network Traffic will increase as much as 150% for 2006.
Network Backbone Traffic
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Voice Traffic
Dail-Up Data Traffic
H-S Access Traffic
Total Backbone Traffic
We predict that one or more of the large, traditional telecom equipment vendors will be involved in a major merger, or will leave the
US market.
Yahoo
Microsoft
Vonage
Skype
E-Bay
NEW COMPETITORS
Yahoo
Microsoft
Vonage
Skype
E-Bay
We predict that these New Competitors will have much more active participation in the telecom market place, and by the end of the year one or more will begin to
be viewed as more competitor than customer.
NEW COMPETITORS
We predict that the network access sharing rules will continue favoring the incumbent carriers; that the Internet will continue untaxed; and that any prospective telecom
vendor merger will be allowed.
Network Modernization
We predict a definitive movement towards a NGN in 2006.
Network Modernization
Network Modernization - ROADMs
R-OADM
EXPRESS WLs
Drop WLs Add WLs
DWDM DWDM
R-OADMs – The Lightwave Under Control!
Network Modernization - ROADMs
We predict that there will be substantial deployment of ROADMs in 2006.
R-OADM
EXPRESS WLs
Drop WLs Add WLs
DWDM DWDM
R-OADMs – The Lightwave Under Control!
Fiber To The Premises
FTTP
We predict that SBC will enter the FTTP arena early in 2006 and that BellSouth will begin a similar program by the end of the year.
FTTP
So, there are our predictions for 2006. We hope they will be useful to you, or at least have offered you a laugh or two.
Happy New Year to all!
We forecast a 10% increase (2006 over 2005) in telecommunications capital expenditures
In 2006, we predict h-s access will achieve 48% - 50% penetration by year’s end.
For 2006, we predict that the telcos will achieve parity with the cable companies by the end of the
year.
We predict Network Traffic will increase as much as 150% for 2006
1
2
3
4
We predict that one or more of the large, traditional telecom equipment vendors will be involved in a major merger, or will
leave the US market.
We predict a definitive movement towards a NGN in 2006.
We predict that these new competitors will have much more active participation in the telecom market place, and by the end of the year
one or more will begin to be viewed as more competitor than customer.
We predict that the network access sharing rules will continue favoring the incumbent carriers; that the Internet will continue
untaxed; and that any prospective telecom vendor merger will be allowed.
We predict that there will be substantial deployment of ROADMs in 2006.
We predict that SBC will enter the FTTP arena early in 2006 and that BellSouth will begin a similar program by the end of the year.
5
6
7
8
9
10
Holliday's Holiday Horoscope
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IGI Consulting, Inc.
&
B & C Consulting Services
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617-782-5033
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