Resilience and Change in Arctic Terrestrial Ecosystems:

A Key Role in the Arctic System

Terry Chapin

University of Alaska Fairbanks

Chapin and Whiteman 1998

Rapid Climatic Change

Mark Serreze, John Walsh

Andrea Lloyd

1949

Chandler River, 50 miles S. of Umiat: Sturm, Racine and Tape: Fifty Years of Change in Arctic Alaskan Shrub Abundance

Shrub density has increased

1949

2000

Matthew Sturm

Indigenous observations suggests that shrub expansion

is widespread in the North American Arctic

Gunderson and Holling 2002

No resilience

Complete resilience

Complete instability

The real world

Is the Arctic a fragile system?

Somewhat!

What are the triggers for major changes?

What are the limits to resilience?

Chapin and Whiteman 1998

Thawing of Permafrost

Hinzman

Hydrology is changing

Discharge is increasing inmajor Euroasian rivers

these 6 rivers accountfor half of river flux to the Arctic Ocean

Peterson et al.

1949

Chandler River, 50 miles S. of Umiat: Sturm, Racine and Tape: Fifty Years of Change in Arctic Alaskan Shrub Abundance

Vegetation is changing

1949

2000

Matthew Sturm

Vegetation change warms the local climate

Model simulations suggest warmer summersFollowing vegetation change

Chapin , Lynch et al.

Arctic Summer Warming Trends

Area burned in W. North America has doubled in last

20 years

Kasischki

Species effects on climate in boreal forest

Baldocchi et al. 2000

The Earth System is Changing

What can we do?

What can we do?

Identify problems and opportunities

Mitigate

Adapt

Global problems

Regional problems and opportunities (examples)

• Problems– Permafrost thaw– Increased fire– Changing economy– Changing institutions– Globally diverse problems

• Opportunities– Identify critical areas– Mitigate regional warming?– New options available– Fresh look for solutions– More options for solutions

University of Alaska’s

Integrative Graduate Education and Research Traineeship Program (IGERT)

Terry Chapin and Gary Kofinas

Regional Resilience and Adaptation

Focal issue of program

• How can we build a sustainable future, if the global environment is directionally changing ecologically, economically, politically, and culturally?

Our underlying philosophy

• Solutions to regional problems must be– Ecologically, economically, socially, and

culturally sustainable– Must treat region as a system with an

integrated set of variables

2002’s entering group

•15 Graduate Students•8 Biology•4 Anthropology•1 Resource Mngt.•2 Interdisciplinary

•50% AK residents•30% minority students