Transcript
Page 1: Objective Techniques In Analog Seasonal Forecasts Objective Techniques In Analog Seasonal Forecasts Analog Forecasting Objectively Picking Analogs Tools

Objective Techniques In

Analog Seasonal Forecasts

•Analog Forecasting•Objectively Picking Analogs•Tools for Interpretation•The Forecast•Future Developments

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Analog Seasonal Forecasting

• Look at this year so far…

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Analog Seasonal Forecasting

• Look at this year so far…• Look for past years that are similar to

this year …

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Analog Seasonal Forecasting

• Look at this year so far…• Look for past years that are similar to

this year …• Use what subsequently happened in

those past years as a forecast for what will happen this year.

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Analog Seasonal Forecasting

• Look at this year so far…• Look for past years that are similar to

this year …• Use what subsequently happened in

those past years as a forecast for what will happen this year.

Page 6: Objective Techniques In Analog Seasonal Forecasts Objective Techniques In Analog Seasonal Forecasts Analog Forecasting Objectively Picking Analogs Tools
Page 7: Objective Techniques In Analog Seasonal Forecasts Objective Techniques In Analog Seasonal Forecasts Analog Forecasting Objectively Picking Analogs Tools

Southern Oscillation Index

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Pacific Decadal OscillationMultivariate ENSO IndexMultivariate ENSO Index

PNANino 3.4

Sahel Rainfall

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Climate IndicesPNA (Pacific North American Index)

NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation)

Jones NAO

EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation)

TNH

ONI

NTA (North Tropical Atlantic Index)

CAR (Caribbean Index)

MEI

BEST

Nino 3

Nino 1+2

Nino 3+4

Nino 4

Pacific Warm Pool

Tropical Pacific SST EOF

TNA

TSA

WHWP WP (West Pacific Index)

QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation)

PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation)

PMM (Pacific Meridional Mode)

NP (North Pacific Index)

NOI (Northern Oscillation Index) AO (Arctic Oscillation) AAO TNI Atlantic Tripole SST EOF AMO AMM (Atlantic Meridional Mode) ACE (Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone

Intensities) Solar Cycle (Flux) Monthly Hurricane Total MDR Hurricanes SST Anomaly MDR - Tropics SST Anomaly Central India Monsoon Precipitation Sahel Rainfall Brazil Rainfall SW USA Monsoon Global Mean Temperature ESPI Globally integrated angular

momentum

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Not just the index…But sensible weather…IE Warm/Cool… Wet/Dry

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Automate the Process

• Compare each previous year to this year…

• Compute a “Goodness of Fit” number…

• Sort “Goodness of Fit”…• Print/Save results…• Do this for multiple indices…• Find “Consensus” analog years

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Objective Forecast

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The Indices:MEI CPC SOI BOM SOIONININO3 TEMPS

NINO4 TEMPSPNAPDOWP

Objective Forecast

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Analog Composites

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November Temperature Precipitation

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December Temperature Precipitation

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January Temperature Precipitation

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February Temperature Precipitation

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March Temperature Precipitation

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April Temperature Precipitation

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Highs

Lows

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Period of Record Average

Analog Average

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32F = 273.15K

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Wind storm 9th, 10th or 11th? … Mild Thanksgiving

30dm 500H anomaly over Pacific Northwest

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Flirt w/cold air ~12th-14th Cold 20th-29th…Possible Arctic Event(s)?

Positive 500H anomaly ~ 800 west of Oregon

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Warm 2nd -8th (Early “January Thaw”?) Arctic event toward end of month? 500H/850T significant negative anomaly

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Cool MonthValentine’s Day Snow?

30dm 500H negative anomaly

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Wind Event 17th, 18th or 19th?

500H anomaly positive/850T anomaly negative

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Active month.Wide swings in temperatures but averages out cool.

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Government Camp Snow

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•2008: 4th and 5th 16 inches total…gone by 11th.

•2000: Snow on 6th, snow again on 8th and continuous snow cover through the end of the month.

•1999: 21st and 22nd eight inches total…all melted by 27th.

•1989: Six inches on 13th… 24th-27th twenty-eight inches.

•1974: 18th through 27th seventeen inches total.

•1971: Twenty-one inches on ground to start month… snowed fourty-seven inches during month.

Government Camp SnowNovember

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Good

Great!

•2008: 4th and 5th 16 inches total…gone by 11th.

•2000: Snow on 6th, snow again on 8th and continuous snow cover through the end of the month.

•1999: 21st and 22nd eight inches total…all melted by 27th.

•1989: Six inches on 13th… 24th-27th twenty-eight inches.

•1974: 18th through 27th seventeen inches total.

•1971: Twenty-one inches on ground to start month… snowed fourty-seven inches during month.

Bad

Marginal

Good

Good

Government Camp SnowNovember

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23d 24th 25th 26th 27th 28th 29th 30th 31st

2008 63 61 72 72 71 69 59 61 55

2000 44 44 48 48 44 42 40 40 36

1999 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

1989 1 1 T 0 0 1 T T 0

1974 27 27 27 27 28 30 30 35 34

1971 69 73 68 68 66 64 68 74 72

Government Camp SnowDecember

Snow Depth in Inches

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23d 24th 25th 26th 27th 28th 29th 30th 31st

2008 63 61 72 72 71 69 59 61 55

2000 44 44 48 48 44 42 40 40 36

1999 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

1989 1 1 T 0 0 1 T T 0

1974 27 27 27 27 28 30 30 35 34

1971 69 73 68 68 66 64 68 74 72

Government Camp SnowDecember

Snow Depth in Inches

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23d 24th 25th 26th 27th 28th 29th 30th 31st

2008 63 61 72 72 71 69 59 61 55

2000 44 44 48 48 44 42 40 40 36

1999 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

1989 1 1 T 0 0 1 T T 0

1974 27 27 27 27 28 30 30 35 34

1971 69 73 68 68 66 64 68 74 72

Government Camp SnowDecember

Snow Depth in Inches

OK

OK

Bumm

er

Dude

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Further Development

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Further Development

More indices

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Further Development

More indices

Write routine(s) to produce and verify historical forecasts

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Further Development

More indices

Write routine(s) to produce and verify historical forecasts

Index/time period weighting

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Forecast Summary/Questions

Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

Temp:

Precip:

Above Near Near Below Near Below Near Near Above Near Below Near

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