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Brazilian MallsBenign Growth Outlook Combined with Defensive Features
June 18, 2013
Research Analysts
Guilherme Rocha55 11 [email protected]
Nicole Hirakawa55 11 [email protected]
Vanessa Quiroga52 55 [email protected]
DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. U.S. Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to dobusiness with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of thisreport. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATIONClient-Driven Solutio ns, Insights, and Access
In this report we analyze (i) impact of the shift in interest rates and inflation expectations in the malls shares,(ii) malls sales prospects in a scenario of potentially less buoyant overall retail sales, (iii) supply outlook ofnew malls (iv) malls operators development track-record and performance of the most recent inauguratedbatch of assets.
Malls shares have been under pressure since early 2013 when interest rates expectations startededging up, but investors should focus on real rates. Future changes in nominal rates could impactshares in the ST, but real rates are way more comparable to FFO yields. In other words, if nominal ratesmove up on the back of higher inflation expectations, the impact should be neutral for the shares. Moreover,if inflation expectations deteriorate we could see investors willing to jump back into the sector given mallsinflation hedging characteristics and more compelling FFO yields relative to the benchmark.
Malls shares offer a combination of defensiveness and inflation protection, which can provehandy if macro uncertainty remains. We like malls earnings foreseeability and inflation-adjusted rentalagreements (combined with underlying real assets), especially in light of recent BRL depreciation.
Unlike bond yields, malls FFOs tend to increase over time and growth potential continues to beinspiring, in our view. Despite the high correlation between malls shares and LT inflation bonds thiscomparison has its caveats: Bond yields remain flat until maturity, whereas malls FFO yield tend to grow.Malls FFO CAGR was 14-49% from 07-12 and we expect it to be 12-20% during the next five years.
Fundamentals remain supportive of future growth. Supply of new malls until 2014 should not harmsectors expansion plans and malls sales should continue to outperform overall retail sales, ultimatelyincreasing malls sales representativeness in total retail sales. Lastly, retail sales could pick-up during 2H13.
Future growth should be geared towards new malls development. We expect listed-players to outruncompetition. Our track-record analysis underscores our positive stance on Multiplan. We see the company
as the best positioned player to deliver on organic growth.Stock Selection: (i) Upgrading BR Malls to Outperform, (ii) resuming coverage of Multiplan with anOutperform rating and (iii) Downgrading Sonae Sierra and Aliansce to Neutral.
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Table of Contents
Coverage Summary 3
Brazilian Shopping Malls Overview 4Recap of Malls Shares Performance YTD 5Impact of Interest Rates Expectations in Malls Shares 6
Inflation-hedging Characteristics 7
Retail Sales Outlook 8Why we prefer to focus on IRRs? 11Why Malls Operators are More Defensive ? 4Stock Selection 4
Multiplan 13
BR Malls 14
Aliansce 15
Sonae Sierra 16
Future Growth Should Be Geared Towards Developments 17Solid Outlook Attracted New Entrants, But Listed Players Should OutrunCompetition 18Snapshot of New Developments Coming to the Market 19GLA penetration outlook post 2014 21
Development Track Record and Performance of Recently Opened Malls 22
Multiplan 23
BR Malls 24
Aliansce 25
Sonae Sierra 27
How Much GLA Growth We Have In Our Numbers? 29
CSe versus Consensus 3012M Fwd P/FFO 3124M Fwd P/FFO 32
Appendix: Household Consumption to Support Retail Sales 33Corporate Templates 34Disclosures 34
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Coverage Summary
Company Name
Ticker
Market Cap (R$ mn)
ADTV 20d (R$ mn)
Target Price (R$/share)
Current Price (R$/share)
Upside (%)
Rating
P/FFO 2014
P/FFO 2015
EV/Ebitda 2014
EV/Ebitda 2015
IRR (real and leveraged)
Multiplan Aliansce Sonae SierraBR Malls
MULT3 ALSC3 SSBR3BRML3
9,393 9,720 3,186 1,978
130.4 29.1 10.7 1.8
26.50 67.00 24.50 31.50
20.63 51.16 20.05 25.88
28.5% 30.0% 22.0% 22.0%
16.9x 17.1x 19.1x 13.8x
14.1x 15.3x 14.5x 11.8x
12.2x 13.4x 12.7x 10.5x
10.9x 12.2x 11.0 x 9.0x
8.0% 7.9% 7.6% 8.8%
OUTPERFORM OUTPERFORM NEUTRAL NEUTRAL
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FOTO
Brazilian Shopping Malls Overview
We remain optimistic about shopping malls longer-term story. Fundamentalsremain solid regardless of a potentially less vibrant outlook for overall retail in the short-term. Malls sales penetration in total retail sales climbed to 25% from 13% in the lastten years and we expect this trend to continue playing out. Shopping experience inmalls tend to be superior to street stores, especially in light of Brazils weather andsecurity conditions.
Growth should be m ainly geared towards new developments in the follo wingyears. We expect companies (especially the listed ones) to continue to be aggressiveon organic growth. Our coverage sample targets 16% IRR (real and unleveraged) forGreenfields and 14% IRR for expansions to existing assets (Brownfields), attractivereturn rates, in our view and higher that what we assume in our models.
M&A should continue to come, but will l ikely not abound as in the past, sincethe more obvious targets seem to have been already taken and competition for assetsgot stiffer. Nonetheless, the industry is still highly fragmented and we still see room forconsolidation; ten largest players account for c.30% of the total market and the top-fiveones for 25%.
Focusing on the short-term
Large portion of the recent move in real interest expectations seems already priced in.Since the beginning of 2013, the real rates implied in NTN-B 24 yields (after taxes)increased ~150bps. Meanwhile, mall stocks contracted significantly, bringing spreadsto previous levels, which are fairly above historical average in a scenario of still decentgrowth outlook for mall operators.
Retail sales should pick up when and if inflation starts easing (2H13 in our view). The
sharp increase in consumer inflation from 4Q12 to 1Q13 likely helped explain the lowergrowth in the retail in 1Q13. However, inflation is expected to drift lower over thecoming months, especially food inflation, potentially bringing some relief to retail salesalready in 3Q13.
Malls sales continue to be significantly more resilient than overall retail sales. Mallsaverage SSS figure was decent in 1Q13 at 7.5%, relatively flat qoq, despite themoderation seen in retail sales.
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Shares Poor Performance YTD Was Mainly Owing to Changes in Real Rates ExpectationsShares have been under pressure since early 2013, when interest rates expectations started shifting more meaningfully. Recent concerns over the economicoutlook did not help at all, but real rates explained most of the ~20% sell off seen in Malls shares. Real rates implied in the NTN-B 24 treasury bond (after taxes) climbed
~150bps since January to 4.1% (after taxes) and the decision of the Brazilian Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) to increase the Selic reference rate by 50bp in its last
meeting at the end of May caused malls shares suffer more.Correlation of mall operators shares with longer-term inflation-linked bonds is definitely high. Correlation of malls shares performance with real interest ratesimplied in NTN-B 24 is significantly higher than with nominal rates (DI). We estimate R to be 0.75 in the former versus 0.18 in the latter. This is mainly because malls lease
agreements are adjusted by inflation and properties tend to appreciate at least in tandem with inflation over time, making real rates way more comparable. Back in 2012, a
contraction in real rates was one of the main reasons behind the strong performance of shares, which ended the year up 30% and outperformed the Ibov by 44%.
Market consensus point to an additional 100bps increase in the basic interest rate until 2014YE. In our view, current expectations are already reflected in stockprices, although we continue to expect a volatile environment in the ST. Nonetheless, future changes in market participants perception about long-term inflation prospects
and tightening cycle (length and intensity) could continue to impact shares in both directions.
R = 0.75
-23.6%-19.8% -19.1% -18.5% -18.0%
-15.0% -14.8%
BRML3 SSBR3 .BVSP Malls ALSC3 MULT3 IGTA3
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse Research. Prices as of June 14th.*Performance YTD
Nominal Rates Edged Up 110 bps Since Early May Moving Real Rates Expectations higher In The Same Proportion
And Causing Malls Shares To Underperform the Broader Index*8.0%
9.1%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
8.5%
9.0%
9.5%
10.0%
10.5%
Jan-12 Apr-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Mar-13 Jun-13
2.3%
2.8%
3.3%
3.8%
4.3%
4.8%
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,00010,000
Jan-12 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 May-13
Malls Perf. Index(LHS)
NTN-B 24 YTM(RHS)
Swap PRE-DI 360d
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Upward Movement In Real rates Seems Already Reflected Into the Shares
2Y FFO yieldSpread toNTNB 24
2.4%
Average
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
Jan-10 Sep-10 May-11 Jan-12 Sep-12 May-13
ALSC
82BRML
76
IGTA
89
MULT
86SSBR
83
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
2.6%NTNB-24 After
Taxes
4.1%
5.0%Malls 2Y Fwd
FFO Yield
6.6%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse Research. Prices as of June 14th.
Real Rates Expectations Have Been Oscillating Significantly.
Malls Price Action Has Been Weak Across The Board YTD
2Y FWD FFO Yields Expansion Offset Increase In Real Rates
We believe the change in real interest ra tes expectation s is priced in. Sincethe beginning of 2013 real rates implied in NTN-B 24 yields (after taxes) have
increased to 4.1% from 2.6% previously (~150bp difference). Meanwhile, malls
shares have fallen ~20% since January 2013, bringing 2Y FWD FFO yields to6.6% from 5.0% previously (160bp difference). As a result, we see the sector
yielding 240bp in excess of the real rates implied in NTN-B 24, in line with January
2013 level (when real rates reached their lowest mark) and only slightly below the
270bp seen in April 2013. It is worth flagging that the current spread of 240bps in
our sample is fairly above the historical average, in a scenario of a still-optimistic
growth outlook for malls operators. In addition, 2Y FWD FFO yields do not capture
growth expectations beyond 2014, which should be compelling.
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2.15
1.90
2.00
2.10
2.20
Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
FX BRL x USD
Higher Rates Could Be a Headwind In ST, But Inflation-Hedging Could Prove Valuable
NTNB-24 (RHS)
4.1%Average
3.5%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
Jan-12 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 May-13
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse Research. Prices as of June 14th.
Real Rates Expectations Have Been Oscillating Significantly .
.And So Has The Breakeven Inflation, Which ranged from 6.0% to 4.5%
Malls Inflation Hedging Could Be Increasingly Attractive In a Scenario ofBRL Depreciation
We reckon that higher nom inal rates could negatively impact malls sharesin the short term. Expectations about the basic interest rates have been volatileand we do not rule out additional increases, at least until inflation starts to curb.
Our economists expect annual inflation to start declining by July 2013 and staybelow 6% as of September 2013, but this should widely depend on the magnitude
of BRL depreciation relative to USD.
However, we believe investors should focus mainly on real rates. In otherwords, if nominal rates move up due to higher inflation expectations, the impact
should be neutral for the shares in the ST. In addition, if inflation expectations
deteriorate we could see investors willing to jump back into the sector given both
its inflation-hedging characteristic and more compelling FFO yields relative to the
benchmark.
Projections for both nominal rates and inflation have been bouncing forthe past few months. The uptick in real rates expectations since April causedmalls shares to look somewhat less compelling, but we believe this could change
quickly. Since 2012 real rates expectations have been oscillating between 4.6%
and 2.6%, a wide range in our view.
Malls shares could become more appealing if inflation pressures prove tobe stickier. If short-term inflation takes longer to abate, causing perception overlong-term inflation to move higher than the 5.2% implied in current breakeven
inflation, we believe malls shares should be perceived as a safer harbor for offering
a combination of real underlying assets and inflation-adjusted revenues.
We like malls inflation-hedging characteristics, especially in light of therecent BRL depreciation. We believe malls protection against inflation couldprove handy if a lower BRL brings additional inflation pressure. The Brazilian
currency has weakened over the past few weeks, depreciating ~5%relative to theUSD since May 26th. Meanwhile, governments willingness to intervene in FX
remains unclear.
5.2%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13
Breakeveninflation
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Retail Sales
3.5%
Textiles,Apparel &Footwear
4.0%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13
Will Retail Sales Cope?
Hering
Marisa
Renner
Restoque
Arezzo
Guararapes
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13
Source: IBGE, Company Data.
1Q13 Was Not an Entirely Bad Quarter For Listed Retailers, 3 outof 6 Posted Expansion Versus 4Q12
Jan/Feb Presented a More Market Deceleration, Whereas MarchIndicated Some Recovery, Especially in Apparel and Footwear
Retail sales are expected to pick up when and if inflation starts easing. According to CS economists, the sharp increase in consumer inflation from 4Q12 to 1Q13helped explain the lower growth in the retail in 1Q13. However, inflation is expected to drift lower over the coming months, mainly the food inflation, potentially bringing
some relief to retail sales already in 3Q13, especially for stores targeting B and C income consumers, who were likely the most impacted by the inflationary pressures.
Outlook will likely be less buoyant than in recent years, but growth should remain relatively in line with 2012 figures. According to CS economics team, thestimulus for the labor and credit markets points to continued growth in household consumption in the coming years. Thus, rising income and credit expansion should
continue to drive retail sales.
Recovery in retail sales throughout 3Q13 should ease concerns about a potential slowdown in malls sales. In our view, more negative retail sales figures, alongwith higher interest rates, have weighed on malls shares, especially in light of the ongoing growth initiatives undertaken by players, which should result in several new malls
openings in the next few years. We believe concerns could have been exaggerated, considering recent data points and inflation outlook could start to improve in the coming
months.
Some listed retaile rs mana ged to post healthy figures in 1Q13. SSS of certain listed companies improved substantially in 1Q13 (3 of 6), as shown below.
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We Expect Malls Sales to Exceed Overall Retail In Following YearsMalls sales remained resilient in 1Q13 despite the moderation in retail sales in the quarter. Average SSS figures for malls were relatively flat at 7.5% qoq, whilegrowth in retail sales decelerated to 3.5% in qoq 1Q13 from 8.4% qoq in 4Q12. Even though the deceleration in retail sales was partially attributable to a lower number of
business days in 1Q13 (60) versus 1Q12 (63), the downward movement was somewhat substantial, indicating that other factors could have contributed.
We expect this trend (outperformance of m alls sales) to continue to play out. Malls have consistently outperformed overall retail sales and we expect this tocontinue going forward, as fundamentals remain strong, i.e. GLA penetration in Brazil is still relatively low in several regions and shopping experience is substantially better
at malls than street stores given Brazils weather and security conditions. Correlation between malls sales and retail sales in not negligible: We estimate R to be 0.6.
However, malls sales have been growing at a CAGR of 17.5% since 2006 compared with 10.7 % for retail sales.
Malls SSS vs Retail Sales Resilience Amidst the Cool Off In 1Q13
SSS Malls
7.5%
Retail
3.5%
Apparel
4.0%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2Q08 4Q08 2Q09 4Q09 2Q10 4Q10 2Q11 4Q11 2Q12 4Q12
10.0%
16.0%
11.4%14.6%
23.0%
18.7%
10.6%
6.8%
13.6%9.9%
6.8%
12.2%
6.6%
8.4%
18% 18% 18%19%
21%
23%
25%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Malls Sales Growth (% yoy)
Retail Sales Growth (% yoy)Malls penetration in Retail
Malls Sales vs Retail Sales, Malls Have ConsistentlyOutperformed Retail Driving Penetration Higher
Source: IBGE, Abrasce.
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Defensiveness Coupled With Still Benign Growth Outlook Could Command a Premium
Source: Company Data, Credit Suisse Research.
Overage7.7%
Temporaryrent and
Merchandising14.0%
Otherrevenues**
78.3%
BR Malls Aliansce
Multiplan* Sonae Sierra
Overage8.4% Temporary
rent andMerchandising
5.5%
Otherrevenues**
86%
Overage3.4%
Temporaryrent and
Merchandising5.6%
Otherrevenues**
91.1%
*Excluding revenues from real restate sales. **Other revenues = Minimum rent, Parking, key money
Overage4.1%
Temporaryrent and
Merchandising5.8%
Otherrevenues**
90.1%
EBITDA Grew at a 20%-47% CAGR in Last 5 Years and We Expect It ToGrow at 13%-19% CAGR From 12-17
While FFO Grew at a 14-49%CAGR in 2007-2012 and Should Grow by12% to 20% in the Next 5 years
20%
47% 45%
25%19%
13% 15% 13%
EBITDA CAGR 07-12
EBITDA CAGR 12-17
14%
42%
49%
23%19% 19% 20%
12%
FFO CAGR 07-12
FFO CAGR 12-17
Malls operators have high earnings predictability. The long-term feature of lease agreements, averaging five years for satellite and ten years for anchor stores,coupled with substantial penalties for early contract termination, tend to provide stability to malls revenue stream.
Rental revenues have a fixed nature and little connection with current sales volume. As such, temporary slowdowns in sales growth have a limited impact on mallsoperators top line. In our sample, only 6% of total revenues, on average, come from overage (sales-linked rent) and another 8% from temporary rents and merchandising.The largest portion of revenues comes from minimum rent, parking and key money.
Unlike bond yields, malls FFO tends to increase over time. We remind investors that despite the high correlation between malls shares and longer-term inflation-linked bonds, this comparison has its caveats: Bond yields remain flat until maturity, whereas malls FFO tends to grow over time owing to real rent increases, organic and
inorganic growth initiatives, and potential efficiency gains. As a reference, CAGR of malls FFO was 14%49% from 2007-2012.
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We expect our sample to grow at an EBITDA and FFO CAGR of 15% and 18%, on average, in 2013-2018. Most names do not look a bargain if we consider 2YFWD FFO yields of 6.6%, however this above historical averages. In our view, current valuations continue to be supported by companies interesting growth prospects.
Yet, in our view, only a couple of companies present a more balanced risk-reward profile in our view, namely BR Malls and Multiplan.
Capital structure diff erences are equaliz ed and growth perspectives are better reflected in IRRs. Current FFO yields can be distorted by different gearing levelsand do not incorporate growth beyond 2014, which we expect to be material. Our estimate of implied IRRs point to, on average, 390 bps spread to NTN-B compared with
240 bps for 2Y FWD FFO yield.
2Y FFO yield look s reasonable, whereas IRRs are significantly m ore compel ling. In some cases, such as BR Malls, the large gap between FFO yields and IRRs ismostly explained by higher leverage pressuring short-term FFO rather than by strong growth prospects, but for most of our sample the gap is explained by the still-positive
growth outlook, reinforced by companies recent equity issuances (FOs), which should be streamed to growth initiatives.
Leverage Weights on Short-Term FFO Yields, We Prefer to Focus on IRR
2Y FWD FFO yield Spread to NTN-B 24 IRR Spread to NTN-B IRR vs FFO yieldsNet Debt / EBITDA
LTM
BR Malls 6.4% 220bps 8.0% 389 bps 159 bps 3.6x
Multiplan 6.2% 195bps 7.9% 371 bps 189 bps 1.8x
Aliansce 6.0% 185bps 7.6% 345 bps 150 bps 4.7x
Sonae Sierra 7.8% 350bps 8.8% 467 bps 102 bps 1.8x
Average 6.6% 243bps 8.0% 393 bps 150 bps 3.0x
2Y FWD FFO Yields are Above Historical Average at 6%(c.16.5x P/FFO)
Malls Operators IRR - CSe
2Y FFO Yields Average 6.6%, Whereas IRRs are Hovering Around 8.0%
8.8%
8.0% 7.9%7.6%
24M Fwd FFO
Yield
6.6%Average
+STD
-STD
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse Research. Prices as of June 14th.
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Malls Shares Spread to NTN-B 24
1.9%
Average
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13
1.9%Average
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13
2.2%
Average
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13
3.5%
Average
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse Research. Prices as of June 14th.
Aliansce - 2Y Fwd FFO yield Spread to NTN-B 24Multiplan - 2Y Fwd FFO yield Spread to NTN-B 24
Sonae Sierra - 2Y Fwd FFO yield Spread to NTN-B 24BR Malls - 2Y Fwd FFO yield Spread to NTN-B 24
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Multiplan
BR MallsAliansce
Sonae10.0x
10.5x
11.0x
11.5x
12.0x
12.5x
13.0x
13.5x
14.0x
7% 9% 11% 13% 15%
EV/EBITD
A
14E
EBITDA CAGR 14-18
What Are Our Preferred Ideas in the Space?
But Growth Perspectives Are High, Multiplan Should Postthe Highest Growth in Our Sample
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse Research. Prices as of June 14th.
Multiplans FFO Yield Spread to NTN-B Is Close to Average
1.9%
Average
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13
All else equal, we favor the resilience of Multiplans premium assets in a volati le environment. Multiplan should trade at a premium to peers owing to its strongasset base. In our view, the company has the most homogeneous portfolio (with one of the best tenant mixes), comprised primarily by large assets (10 of 17 with more than
30K sqm and 8 with more than 45K sqm of GLA), and mixed-use projects (5 in total), which tend to boost malls traffic and thus, sales.
New greenfields announcement and EBITDA margin gains should be a catalyst for the shares. We believe the company has the ability to generate superior valueto its shareholders through organic growth. The R$ 600 million proceeds raised in the Follow-on offering should start being deployed in expansions and new malldevelopments in the short term, in our view. In addition, Multiplan will likely reap some gains from the recent asset base growth, helping dilute fixed costs and likely driving
margins higher. The successful ramp-up of recently inaugurated malls, which increased owned GLA by 25% in 4Q12 alone, should add to shares visibility and be an
additional driver of SSS starting in 4Q13.
Multiplan is the most defensive play and also the better positioned to deliver on organic growth considering its track-record. We are resuming coverageof Multiplan with an Outperform rating. The company offers the combination of a defensive portfolio with the highest EBITDA CAGR prospects in our sample, of 14% in
2014-2018, propelled primarily by a 56% owned GLA addition by 2018, resulting in GLA CAGR of 8% in 2013-2018 and some margin expansion, owing to its broader
asset base. We ascribe relatively more optimistic assumptions to Multiplan based on:1. Companys track-record of developing top-notch assets.
2. Proven execution capacity (15 malls delivered to date please refer to page 23 for more details on companys execution track record) and land bank of 619,000
sqm for potential real estate for sale, expansions and commercial towers.
3. Strong relationship with tenants, enhanced by its strong asset base.
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What Are Our Preferred Ideas in the Space? (continued)
Spread NTNB24 2.2%
Average
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13
BR MallsSonae Sierra
Aliansce
Multiplan
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
7.4% 7.6% 7.8% 8.0% 8.2% 8.4% 8.6% 8.8% 9.0%OwnedGLACAGR12-18
Implied IRR
IRR Onwed GLA growth 12 to 18 Owned GLA CAGR 12-18
BR Malls 8.0% 23% 3%
Sonae Sierra 8.8% 31% 5%
Aliansce 7.6% 36% 5%
Multiplan 7.9% 56% 8%
IRR versus Owned GLA CAGR: BR Malls Stands Out as the Highest IRR with the Most Conservative Growth Premises
Source: Company Data, Credit Suisse Research. Prices as of June 14th.
BR Malls 2Y FFO Yield Spread to NTN-B 24 High Relative to Historical Figures
Upgrading BR Malls to Outperform, the 24% sell-off YTD was overdone, creating an interesting entry-point. We see BR Malls trading at a 2Y FWD FFO yield of 6.4%,representing a 220 bps spread to NTN-B 24, but we remind investors that companys current gearing pressures short-term FFO, causing FFO yields to look lower relative to peers.
I. IRR looks particularly compelling a t 8% in real terms, representing c. 390 bps spread to long-term infla tion adjusted bonds.II . BR Malls relies less on future growth to deliver our IRR estimate. The company presents the highest implied IRR in our sample. Nonetheless, it depends significantly less ongrowth than peers to achieve those figures, given BR Malls superior profitability and current depressed level of shares.III. Modest growth em bedded into our num bers. We are incorporating limited GLA growth for BR Malls on top of the projects already announced. In aggregate, we expect BR
Malls to grow its owned GLA at a 3% CAGR in 2012-2018. Thus, acquisitions and new Greenfields announcements would be an upside to our numbers.
IV. Lower growth relative to peers could open room for hi gher dividends. BR Malls increased its payout ratio for the first time to c. 60% in 2012, we could see this numbergoing up if growth options prove to be scarcer.
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What Are Our Preferred Ideas in the Space? (continued)
IRR Versus Owned GLA CAGR
Source: Company Data, Credit Suisse Research. Prices as of June 14th.
Downgrading Aliansce to Neutral, on relative valuation grounds. Aliansce 2Y FWD FFO is yielding 190 bps in excess of NTN-B 24, compared with 280 bps for oursample (ex-Aliansce). Even though current gearing is weighting on Aliansce short-term FFO, we argue that implied IRR does not look as compelling relative to peers either,
despite of the strong growth assumptions embedded in our numbers (5.3% owned GLA CAGR until 2018). In addition, the performance of recent inaugurated malls, with
additional phases of the two more challenging ones yet to be opened in 2013 and 2014, adds risk to this investment case.Aliansce should continue to deliver strong SSS figures, but this is already incorporated into our numbers. Aliansce has one of the youngest portfolios in ourcoverage universe and this should continue to provide for double-digit SSS in the following quarters. New assets tend to post annual SSS between 10-18% during the first
five years of operations, driving consolidated figures up. We are reflecting the maturation process of those assets along with strong GLA growth into our numbers .
1.9%Average
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13
8.8%
8.0%7.9%
7.6%
IRR Does Not Look As Compelling Relative to Peers
Aliansce - 2Y Fwd FFO yield Spread to NTN-B 24
IRR Onwed GLA growth 12 to 18 Owned GLA CAGR 12-18
BR Malls 8.0% 23% 3%
Sonae Sierra 8.8% 31% 5%
Aliansce 7.6% 36% 5%
Multiplan 7.9% 56% 8%
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June 18, 2013
What Are Our Preferred Ideas in the Space? (continued)
Source: Company Data, Credit Suisse Research. Prices as of June 14th.
Sonae Sierra: 2Y FFO Yield Spread to NTN-B 24 Peaked Owing to Lower SSS and Concerns Over Most Recent Malls Delivered
Downgrade Sonae Sierra, discount to peers does not look wide enough to support and Outperform rating. In our view, Sonae Sierra should trade at a discount to peersgiven companys less resilient portfolio comprised by a majority of assets located in less central regions with more exposure to C and D classes. SSS have been lagging for the last
two quarters, despite companys relatively younger portfolio.
Performance of recent inaugurated malls does not add to the case. Uberlandia Shopping and Boulevard Londrina, which opening took place in 1Q12 and 2Q13 respectively,are facing significant competition from BR Malls assets, negatively impacting sales ramp up and occupancy rates. Please refer to page 27 for more details on those mallsperformance.
Future growth i s largely concentrated in one large project. Out of 31% growth in owned GLA incorporated into our numbers, roughly 80% will come from Passeio das Aguasmall with 78 thousand sqm GLA. While the mall is relatively well leased, 72% pre-letting rate in 1Q13, we see with some caution the fact that growth is largely concentrated in one
single project. The mall is going to account for c.20% of companys owned GLA after its conclusion, scheduled for 4Q13.
7.5%
6.1%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13
Average Sonae Sierra
SSS Have Been Lagging Peers During the Last Two Quarterr
3.5%
Average
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13
33143323
78
Current Own GLA Announced GLAIncrease
Not AnnouncedGLA Increase
Own GLA 2018E
31%
80% of growthcoming from
Passeio das Aguas
Sonae Sierra: GLA Growth Breakdown
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June 18, 2013
FOTO
Future Growth Should Be Geared Towards Developments
Acquisitions continue to be an option, but cap rates will likely be lesscompelling than in the past. Especially as the private players tend to take longer toadjust to real rates compression/expansion. In our view, M&A should continue to come,but will likely not abound as in the past, since the more obvious targets seem to havebeen already taken and competition for assets gets stiffer. Nonetheless, the industry isstill highly fragmented with the ten largest players accounting for c.30%.
Thus, new developments should be the main source of future growth. Weexpect companies (especially the listed ones) to continue to be aggressive on organicgrowth, which should provide higher returns relative to acquisitions coupled with fairlymore risk. Our coverage sample targets 16% IRR (real and unleveraged) forGreenfields and 14% IRR for expansions of existing assets (Brownfields).
New malls supply should not harm sectors future grow. Our analysis indicateGLA penetration should remains relatively low even after 2014. In addition, futuresupply targets cities with lower GLA occurrence, 60% of the pipeline located in citieswith less than 100 sqm per 000 inhabitants. Only a few cities could potentially have ahigh GLA incidence versus disposable income per GLA and could present a moredifficult competitive environment.
Investors should be more willing to pay for future growth in companies withmore proved track-record. Over the next pages, we aim to assess our companiessample track-record and the extent to which recently opened malls have metexpectations.
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June 18, 2013
Solid Outlook Attracted New Entrants, But Listed Players Should Outrun Competition
Competi tion increased as several new players entered the mark et and existing ones stepped up investmen ts betting on sectors positive fundamentals.However, we expect listed players to outperform, as relationship with tenants and know-how are key success factors. Ultimately, this round of investments coming from
new entrants could result in potential for consolidation in the future, in our view.
Listed players are well positioned to continue to capture future growth opportunities:
1. Companies are well capitalized following the last round of Follow-ons and should continue to have better access to other sources of capital relative to private players
and especially new entrants.
2. We expect listed players to leverage from their relationship with tenants and strong current asset base to achieve a better tenant-mix in new Greenfields
3. Professionalized structure should assure more disciplined decisions regarding expansions/new projects relative to private competitors. Thus, we see little likelihood
of companies putting money to work in value destroying new developments. History shows that even new assets with bottom of range performance could be able to
deliver IRRs above 10% (according to companies estimates).
*Savoy we used total GLA instead of owned
Source: Company Data, Credit Suisse Research.
Brazilian Malls Market Share in Owned GLA (2012)
8%6%
5%2%3%3%2%1%1%
1%0.3%68%
BR Malls
Savoy*
Multiplan
Iguatemi
Aliansce
Sonae Sierra
General Shopping
Brookfield Shoppings
HSI - Saphyr
CCP
Tenco
Others
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June 18, 2013
Snapshot of Malls New Developments Coming to the MarketBrazil had 461 malls in May 13 (equivalent to 11.4 million sqm of GLA) and growth should be substantial until 2014. There are currently 76 malls underdevelopment, amounting to 2.2 million sqm of GLA. Following the conclusion of those projects, the number of malls and total GLA in Brazil would increase by 16% and
20% until 2014YE.
We do not rule out the delay/po stponemen t of som e projects, as has it has been the case in previous years. As we have seen in the past couple of years, mallsprojects conclusions have been much lower than initial expectations. In 2012, actual GLA supply was 43% lower than what the market was expecting.
25% of new supply of GLA will be in cities with currently no mal l and 60% in cities where GLA per capita is below 100 sqm. New projects are concentrated incities with low GLA per 000 inhabitants ratios, indicating malls are being built in regions other than the traditional ones.
Source: Abrasce, Credit Suisse Research. Prices as of June 14th.
795
472
Expected NewSuppy GLA
Actual NewSupply GLA
1,441
820
Expected NewSuppy GLA
Actual NewSupply GLA
Actual new GLA supply was in reality much lower than the initiallyexpected
581
259
469539
306
61
0 0 - 50 50 - 100 100 - 150 150 - 200 250+
GLA per 000' inhabitants
North, 0.2
Northeast, 0.4
Mid West, 0.2Southeast,
1.2
South, 0.2
60% of new supply targets cities with less than 100 sqm 000
inhabitants ratio
Breakdown by Region (in thousand sqm)
2011 2012
-43.1%-40.6%
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June 18, 2013
Only a Few Cities will potentially have high GLA per capita vs. disposable income per GLA
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse Research. Prices as of June 14th.
140
190
240
290
340
390
440
GLA/'000inhabitants
5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000Disposable Income per sqm of GLA
Londrina
So Jose - SCBarueri
Maringa
Itu
Jandira Resende
Ribeirao Preto
Vila Velha
Betim
Lages
Campinas
So Jos do Rio Preto
Porto AlegreSo Jos dos Campos
Palmas
Dourados
Limeira
Petrolina
Cabo Frio
Florianopolis
Belo Horizonte
CuritibaRio deJaneiro
Taubate
Vitria
Praia Grande
Goinia
Caruaru
20,00015,000
Barretos
Osasco
Uberlndia
Trs Lagoas
Balneario Camboriu
Santo AndrBlumenau
CaraguatatubaJundiai
So Paulo
Ponta Grossa
Valparaisode Goias
Campo Grande Cuiaba
PousoAlegre
Indaiatuba
Piracicaba
Fortaleza
Nova
Friburgo
NatalJoo Pessoa
Salvador
Cascavl Recife
NovoHamburgo
UberabaAracaju
Aracatuba
PresidentePrudente
So Caetano Do Sul
Votorantim + Sorocaba
Paragominas
2014 Figures Cities with GLA incidence above 50 sqm per 000
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June 18, 2013
GLA Penetration Remains Reasonable After 2014Brazil has currently 40 cities with more than 150 sqm of GLA per 000 inhabitants and only 20 with above 200 sqm of GLA. In most cases, the higher GLA density isaccompanied by a concentration of disposable income, indicating that cities with a high occurrence of GLA are among the wealthiest ones in terms of disposable income per GLA.
After 2014, 61 cities will have more than 150 sqm per GLA and 28 more than 200 sqm. Within this universe of cities with GLA occurrence above 150 sqm in 2014, onlyabout nine cities screen as potentially having high GLA occurrence vs. disposable income per GLA. (i.e. Londrina, Barueri, Ribeiro Preto, Vila Velha, Lages, Maringa, Betim andSao Jose SC)
GLA per thousand inhabitant ratio should continue below o ther countries figures after the 2014. Penetration in Brazil is currently of 59 sqm per 000people and should goup to 69 sqm, assuming the entire pipeline of projects is delivered. GLA occurrence, excluding the cities with total population lower than 50k inhabitants is currently 88 and would
increase to 101 sqm in 2014.
Source: ICSC, Credit Suisse Research, IBGE and Abrasce
360
220
180
110
8859
South Africa* France* Germany* Mexico* Brazil - cities> 50k inhab
Brazil - Total
360
220
180
110101
69
South Africa* France* Germany* Mexico* Brazil - cities> 50k inhab
Brazil - Total
GLA Penetration sqm per 000 inhabitants May 2013
* 2011 figures
GLA Penetration sqm per 000 inhabitants 2014YE
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June 18, 2013
Development Track Record and Performance of Recently Opened MallsWe believe investors should be more willing to pay for future growth in companies with more proved track-record. In this report, we assess listed companies track-
record and mainly the extent to which recently opened malls are meeting expectations.
Our conclusion is supportive of our positive stance on Multiplans growth story. Multiplan and Aliansce stand out as having the most solid track recordwhen it comes to new developments, but Multiplan outranked Aliansce when looking at the performance of recently opened malls, maintaining its tradition ofdeveloping superior assets.
* If we were to consider Via Brasil and Londrina (acquired turn key during construction) the total would 8. ** Includes Boulevard Londrina inaugurated in 2Q13.
Source: Company Data, Credit Suisse Research.
Development History Table
Track record (CS view)
N of Developed Greenfields 6* 15
N of Developed Greenfields since IPO 6* 6
Number Developed Expansions 10 42
GLA Developed 266,196 641,700
Owned GLA Developed 168,477 491,400
% of Total Assets 12% 88%
% of Owned GLA 18% 94%
So Bernardo do Campo
Independencia Shopping
Sete Lagoas
Granja Vianna
Mooca Plaza
Estao BH
6**
2**
5
310,000
225,000
67%
83%
Londrina
Parque Dom Pedro
Boa Vista
Campo Limpo
Manauara
Uberlandia
Shopping Anlia Franco
DiamondMallNew York City Center
BHShopping
RibeiroShopping
BarraShopping
MorumbiShopping
ParkShopping
ParkShoppingCampoGrande VillageMall
ParkShoppingBarigi
BarraShoppingSul
Shopping Vila Olmpia
ParkShoppingSoCaetano
JudiaShopping
10
5
16
366,740
256,696
61%
64%
Bangu Shopping
Santana Parque Shopping
Caxias Shopping
Boulevard Braslia
Boulevard Belm
Boulevard Belo Horizonte
Boulevard Campos
Parque Shopping Belm
Boulevard Vila Velha
Boulevard Naes BauruList of Malls
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June 18, 2013
Multiplan Recent Projects Are on Their Way to Beat 1st Year NOI Expectations
OccupancyRate at Opening
Opening Date GLA IRR estimate
Projected Actual Projected Actual At Launch Current
Parque Sao Caetano 96% 4Q11 4Q11 38,900 39,274 24% n.a.Jundiai Shopping 95% 4Q12* 4Q12 34,575 34,501 18% 16.4%
Park Campo Grande 96% 4Q12 4Q12 40,743 42,355 21% 21.8%
Village Mall 89% 2Q12 4Q12 25,653 25,235 16% 13.0%
* project was announced in 2008 and then delayed and re-announced in 2010**revenues from 1Q12 right after the mall opening
Very good occupancy rates coupled with timely delivery of the projects. Multiplan malls inaugurated on average with a 94% occupancy rate and opening datespresent roughly no deviation from forecasted. Company estimated IRR for recent projects changed more meaningfully only for Village Mall.
1Q13
Monthly Salesper sqm
Rent & ParkingRevenues 1Q13
Rent & ParkingRev. per m/month
1 year NOI(R$ mn) Cse
1 year NOI(Expected vs Cse)
Net Capex(R$mn)
1 yearCap rate (Cse)
Parque Sao Caetano 877 9.9** 84 36.4 4% 223 16.3%
Jundiai Shopping 686 7.5 73 27.9 37% 293 9.5%
Park Campo Grande 630 8.5 74 31.4 61% 258 13.5%
Village Mall 1141 7.3 97 27.1 -27% 456 5.9%
Source: Company Data, Credit Suisse Research
As per our estimate, Multiplan seems on track to beat first-year NOI expectations for the malls opened in 2012. We calculated the first-year NOI of Multiplanmalls by annualizing their reported 1Q13 rent and parking revenues. Of note, NOIs for Multiplan assets do not include key money revenues, as is the case for Aliansce and
BR Malls. The malls Jundiai and Campo Grande seem to be on their way to significantly beat companys initial expectations, whereas Village Mall seems to be falling short
of projections, but the company is guiding for an increase in occupancy already in 2Q13. Additionally, even though we do not have NOI broken down by mall, Parque So
Caetano (inaugurated at the end of 2011) seems to have surpassed initial expectations. Sales per sqm for the assets also appear to be solid, averaging R$835 per sqm per
month in 1Q13, not too far from the R$1,300 average of the entire portfolio in the quarter, especially considering that malls sales tend to grow significantly during the five-
year maturation process.
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June 18, 2013
BR Malls' Assets, Granja Viana, Mooca Plaza, and Estao BH Seem to Be Doing WellWe have more limited information available to evaluate BR Malls Greenfield performance as the company discloses detailed information for its main assets and only a few
greenfields made the cut and not necessarily in every quarter.
BR Malls growth strategy has been widely focused on inorganic growth. Since 2007 the company acquired 40 assets and increased its stake in 35 already ownedmalls, adding the equivalent to 653 thousand sqm in owned GLA in the process. To date, BR Malls developed 18% of its current asset portfolio, based on owned GLA.
First-year cap rates (for the malls we were able to analyze) look strong. Based on reported NOI for Granja Vianna and Mooca Plaza, 1 year cap rates were 20%and 17% respectively. In addition, annualizing the NOI from the first 6-months of operations (4Q12 and 1Q13) for Estao BH by attributing a 51% weight for these
quarters in full-year numbers, we arrived at a 21% first-year cap rate. However, we were unable to find data on Sete Lagoas, So Bernardo, and Londrina (the last two
were inaugurated quite recently).
Occupancy Rateat Opening
Opening Date GLA
Projected Actual Projected Actual
Sete Lagoas 100% 1H11 4Q10 16,162 16,431
Granja Vianna 97% 1H11 4Q10 29,700 29,892
Mooca Plaza 100% 1H12 4Q11 38,307 41,964
Estao BH 97% 2H12 2Q12 35,146 33,982
So Bernardo 99% 4Q12 4Q12 41,795 42,880
Londrina Norte 92% 4Q12 4Q12 32,601 32,992
Opening Date 1 year NOI (R$ mn) Reported Gross Capex 1 year Cap rate
Granja Vianna 4Q10 26,522 132,300 20%
Mooca Plaza 4Q11 30,005 174,500 17%
Estao BH* 2Q12 30,307 143,700 21%
Source: Company Data, Credit Suisse Research.
Timely Delivery Coupled with Good Occupancy Rates at Opening, Average of 98%
First-year Cap Rates (including key money) Seem solid
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June 18, 2013
Aliansce Recently Inaugurated Malls Had Some ShortcomingsEven though we recognize managements deep sector knowledge, the 2012 projects batch was not great and ramp-up could take longer than expected.The set of projects delivered in 2012 had lower-than-expected demand for leasing space, leading to suboptimal occupancy at start. Two of the three malls inaugurated in
2012 faced tougher competition, causing Aliansce to parcel the opening in phases to increase occupancy.
Total GLA of Boulevard Bauru and Boulevard Vila Velha was reduced by 20% and 29%, respectively. The second phases are expected to be inaugurated in 4Q13and the opening date of the third phase of Vila Velha is not defined yet. We expect the market to closely monitor their performance.
On the other hand, Parque Shopping Belems opened with a high occupancy rate and companys IRR forecast for the project is unchanged thus far.
Source: Company Data, Credit Suisse Research.
Stake Owned GLAOpening
Occupancy at opening Occupancy in 1Q13Projected Actual
Boulevard Bauru 75% 19,907 4Q12 4Q12 92% 94%
Boulevard Vila Velha 50% 15,412 4Q12 4Q12 88% 91%
Parque Shopping Belm 50% 15,660 2Q12 2Q12 97% 97%
1Q13
Total Revenues Rent revenues perm/month
Total revenues perm/month
1 year NOI (R$mn) Cse
1 year NOI(Expected vs Cse)
Net Capex 1 year Cap rate
Boulevard Bauru* 2,879 32 48 14.2 -5% 112 7.6%
Boulevard Vila Velha* 1,155 23 25 8.5 -31% 89 3.4%
Parque Shopping Belm 2,610 42 56 19.3 43% 92.7 10.4%
Tougher Competition Caused Aliansce to Parcel Two Assets in Phases To Boost Initial Occupancy Rate
As per our estimate, only Parque Belm is on track to deliver a solid first-year cap rate. We calculated the first-year NOI of Aliansces malls by annualizing the reported
1Q13 revenues per mall, attributing a 23% weight in full-year revenues and setting NOI margin at 85% in the first year. As a result, Bauru and, especially, Vila Velha
numbers look fairly low. The rule of thumb is that first-year cap rate should be 10% 12%. Nonetheless, it is worth noting that this could be partially attributed to allowances
given to tenants in order to boost pre-letting rate and this number could go higher after they expire.
Our Estimate Point to Fairly Low First-year Cap Rates for Bauru and Vila Velha
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June 18, 2013
But the Batch Prior to 2012 Exceed ExpectationsAliansces expectations for the IRR of 2012 projects are still optimistic. Even after the shortcomings encountered by Vila Velha and Bauru, the company is guiding IRRs of
14% and 15% (real and unlevered) for the projects, which should also depend on the performance of the phases that are still to be inaugurated. Of note, the opening of
the third phase of Boulevard Vila Velha depends on an improvement in market dynamics in the region.
In addition, it is fair to mention that the majority of projects delivered in 2007-2010 have exceed companys expectations (for the ones we have data). The seven projects
analyzed were delivered on time, and four out of five with more than 3 years from the opening have beat companys initial estimates for third-year cap rate. The same appliesfor the expected IRRs, which were revised upward in most of the cases.
IRR Announced IRR Revised
Boulvard Bauru 16% 15% 70 bps
Boulevard Vila Velha 16% 14% 250 bps
Parque Shopping Belm 17% 17% 0 bps
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Total
Boulevard Bauru 26,543 7,375 33,918
Boulevard Vila Velha 30,824 2,767 9,233 42,824
Opening dates 4Q12 4Q13 To be defined
Boulevard Bauru and Vila Velha Phases Opening ScheduleIRR Expectations at the Announcement Versus Current
Key Metrics of the Seven Projects Delivered Between 2007 and 2010
Initial StakeOccupancy
Rate atOpening
Opening Date GLA IRR estimate Cap Rate 3rd year
Projected Actual Projected Actual At Launch Current At Launch Current
Bangu Shopping 70% 99% 4Q07 4Q07 45,262 43,975 16.4% 20.1% 14.1% 15.9%
Santana Parque Shopping 50% 97% 4Q07 3Q07 25,424 26,526 15.2% 17.8% 13.6% 15.4%
Caxias Shopping 40% 96% 4Q08 4Q08 25,677 25,601 n.a. 18.9% 10.5% 13.3%
Boulevard Brasilia 50% 71% 3Q09 3Q09 16,925 16,925 16.8% 14.6% 10.2% 9.3%
Boulevard Belm 75% 90% 4Q09 4Q09 26,803 34,117 14.2% 23.9% 12.5% 21.1%
Boulevard Belo Horizonte 70.0% 90.0% 4Q10 4Q10 n.a. 43,064 15.0% n.a. 9.1% n.a.
Boulevard Campos 50.0% 96.0% 2Q11 2Q11 19,000 19,000 16.0% n.a. 12.9% n.a.
Source: Company Data, Credit Suisse Research.
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June 18, 2013
Sonae Sierra: Challenging Outlook for Recently Opened Malls Sonae Sierra does not provide revenues/NOI per mall nor expected returns for
its greenfields. Thus, we focus on analyzing more qualitative aspects of the two
malls opened during 2012-13, namely Uberlandia and Londrina.
Uberlandia Shopping faced significant competition coming from CenterShopping Uberlandia from BR Malls, which is located in an arguably morecentral region. Competitive environment has being causing sales volume to
growth below initial expectations, Uberlandias second year of sales is
significantly below Sonae Sierras Portfolio. Of note, the company expects the
opening of a Zara store in 2Q13 to spur traffic, positively impacting sales
onwards.
StakeOccupancy Rate at
Opening
Opening Date GLA
Projected Actual Projected Actual
Boulevard Londrina 84.5% 88% 2H12 2Q13 47,800 47,800
Uberlandia Shopping 100% 93% 2H11 1Q12 43,600 45,300
Gross Capex (R$ mn) in Capex Sales 1Q13 (R$mn) Sales per sqm per month
Projected Actual
Boulevard Londrina 250 320 28% - -
Uberlandia Shopping 190 201 6% 54.5 396.5
Sona Sierra Assets Monthly Sales per sqm 1Q13
Boavista Shopping 1,243
Shopping Plaza Sul 1,210
Manauara Shopping 1,156
Shopping Campo Limpo 998
Shopping Metrpole 859
Parque D. Pedro Shopping 804
Franca Shopping 779
Uberlndia Shopping 397
Average per sqm 865
Source: Company Data, Credit Suisse Research.
Boulevard Londrina is also competing head-to-head with anot her asset from BR Malls. Boulevard Londrina pre-letting process was impacted by Londrina Norte,inauguration two quarters earlier. Sonae Sierra has granted higher discounts (20-30%) for the first year of leasing in order to attract more tenants. We usually prefer not to
focus too much on projected vs. actual Capex figures, once it is difficult to determine the reasons behind the construction cost increase (i.e. upgrades to the original projects
or actual overruns). However, in the case of Boulevard Londrina, the c.30% higher cost relative to initial budget refers to an actual construction cost overrun, which shouldhave negatively impacted returns for this asset.
J 18 2013
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June 18, 2013
How Much GLA Growth We Have In Our Numbers?We expect our covered companies to grow Owned GLA on average by 36% until 2018, resulting in an average annual CAGR of 5%. Out of the 36% growth, we expect
65% to come from already announced projects and 35% from Greenfields and Brownfields to be announced in the coming years.
Source: Company Data, Credit Suisse Research.
9351,147
162 50
Current Own GLA Announced GLAIncrease
Not Announced GLAIncrease
Own GLA 2018E
401547
105
41
Current Own GLA Announced GLAIncrease
Not AnnouncedGLA Increase
Own GLA 2018E
529825
110 186
Current Own GLA Announced GLAIncrease
Not AnnouncedGLA Increase
Own GLA 2018E
331433
101
Current Own GLA Announced GLAIncrease
Not AnnouncedGLA Increase
Own GLA 2018E
23%
36%
31%56%
17%5%
26%16%
21%35%
31%
Owned GLA Growth CAGR of 5% until 2018
Owned GLA Growth CAGR of 8% until 2018 Owned GLA Growth CAGR of 5% until 18
Owned GLA Growth CAGR of 3% until 2018
J 18 2013
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June 18, 2013
CSe versus Consensus
Ebitda 2013e(R$ million)
Ebitda 2013e(R$ million)
Ebitda 2013e(R$ million)
Ebitda 2013e(R$ million)
Source: Company Data, Credit Suisse Research.
Ebitda 2014e Ebitda 2014e Ebitda 2014eEbitda 2014e
CSe Consensus
CSe Consensus
839 868
685720
CSe Consensus
1,0251,117
CSe Consensus
1,1861,313
CSe Consensus
CSe Consensus
420 432
331355
CSe Consensus
CSe Consensus
220252
290
348
June 18 2013
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30
June 18, 2013
12M Fwd P/FFO
Source: Company Data, Credit Suisse Research.
22.4x
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13
Average
18.8x
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan-08 Nov-08 Oct-09 Sep-10 Aug-11 Jul-12 May-13
Average
19.3x
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan-08 Nov-08 Oct-09 Sep-10 Aug-11 Jul-12 May-13
Average
16.2x
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
Feb-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Dec-12 May-13
Average
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June 18, 2013
24M Fwd P/FFO
Source: Company Data, Credit Suisse Research.
16.5x
8
10
12
14
16
18
2022
24
Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13
Average
15.5x
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan-08 Nov-08 Oct-09 Sep-10 Aug-11 Jul-12 May-13
Average
16.2x
5
10
15
20
25
Jan-08 Nov-08 Oct-09 Sep-10 Aug-11 Jul-12 May-13
Average
12.8x12
14
16
18
20
22
Feb-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Dec-12 May-13
Average
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June 18, 2013
11
14
23
24
29
29
38
43
Mexico
Russia
South Korea
Portugal
Greece
Spain
United Kingdom
United States
Assuming real growth inconsumption per capita
of 3.9% p.a. from 2004 to2011 and no change in
parity between FX rates.
3 Using the 2011 level as reference.
Appendix: Household Consumption to Support Retail SalesContinued expansion in household consumption should support retail sales. Despite its increase in recent years, household consumption is still lowcompared with other developed or even emerging economies. Assuming Brazils average growth in per capita household consumption in the next few years
remains close to recent average of 3.9%, to reach Mexicos level Brazil would take more than 11 years.
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse Research. Prices as of June 14th.
Number of years need for Brazil to reach the current level ofconsumption per capita of other countries
Household consumption per capita in Brazil1
(% of household consumption of other countries)
10
20
25
30
35
40
45
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
15 Peripheral Europe Japan, Australia, and New ZealandSouth Korea2
Developed countries USA and CanadaCentral Europe
2 Emerging countries with highest levels of household consumption per capita.
1 Measured in US dollars, converted by purchasing power parity, at 2005 prices.
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J ,
BR Malls Corporate Profile
Source: Credit Suisse Research
FINANCIAL METRICS (R$ mn)
Net revenues
Gross Profit
Gross margin
EBIT
EBIT margin
EBITDA
EBITDA margin
Adj. EBITDA
Net financial expenses
Taxes
Reported Net income
Net margin
# shares ('000)EPS (R$)
NOPAT (before &A)
Depreciation
Amortization
FCFE
Dividends
Total assets
Cash
Debt
PP&E
Net debt
Book value
Invested capital
Market cap.
EV
2011A
841
777
92.5%
663
79%
673
80%
673
(306)
(79)
471
56%
4391.1
594
0
10
134
49
13,937
452
3,672
12,594
3,220
6,624
10,499
9,393
12,613
2012A
1,091
1,027
94.1%
862
79%
875
80%
875
(434)
(1,050)
1,742
160%
4533.8
(175)
0
13
332
216
17,527
784
5,009
15,409
4,224
8,189
13,244
9,393
13,617
2013E
1,279
1,204
94.2%
1,015
79%
1,026
80%
1,026
(411)
(120)
431
34%
4550.9
906
0
10
(148)
212
17,726
637
4,858
15,714
4,221
8,433
13,547
9,393
13,614
2014E
1,460
1,375
94.2%
1,183
81%
1,186
81%
1,186
(424)
(144)
565
39%
4551.2
1,042
0
3
239
256
18,427
876
5,108
16,098
4,232
8,742
13,920
9,393
13,625
2015E
1,638
1,542
94.1%
1,346
82%
1,346
82%
1,346
(432)
(174)
681
42%
4551.5
1,172
0
0
264
306
19,269
1,140
5,420
16,581
4,280
9,117
14,401
9,393
13,673
2016E
1,805
1,699
94.1%
1,483
82%
1,483
82%
1,483
(428)
(201)
786
44%
4551.7
1,283
0
0
379
393
19,994
1,519
5,596
16,836
4,077
9,510
14,660
9,393
13,470
OPERATING METRICS
GLA(YE)
GLA (AVERAGE)
FFO
FFO margin
NOI (comparable calc.)
NOI per sq. meter
EBITDA per sq. meter
LEVERAGE
Net debt / Equity
Net debt / Ebitda
Net debt / Total assets
Capex / Operat.Cash Flow
Total Assets / Equity
RETURN / YIELD
ROIC
WACC
Cost of Equity (ke)
ROE
FFO Yield
Dividend Yield
VALUATION
EV / Adj. EBITDA
P/FFO
P/E
P/BV
2011A
798
715
312
37%
766
1,072
941
2011A
49%
4.8x
0.2x
n.a.
2.1x
2011A
6.4%
-
9.3%
4.7%
3.3%
1%
2011A
18.8x
30.1x
19.2x
2.1x
2012A
935
860
366
34%
1,029
1,196
1,017
2012A
52%
4.8x
0.2x
0.0x
2.1x
2012A
6.6%
-
9.3%
4.5%
3.9%
2%
2012A
15.6x
25.7x
5.4x
1.3x
2013E
945
941
470
37%
1,209
1,284
1,090
2013E
50%
4.1x
0.2x
0.0x
2.1x
2013E
7.6%
-
9.3%
5.6%
5.0%
2%
2013E
13.3x
20.7x
22.6x
1.1x
2014E
1,048
1,025
568
39%
1,380
1,347
1,157
2014E
48%
3.6x
0.2x
0.0x
2.1x
2014E
8.5%
-
9.3%
6.5%
6.1%
3%
2014E
11.5x
16.9x
17.0x
1.1x
2015E
1,115
1,073
681
42%
1,548
1,443
1,255
2015E
47%
3.2x
0.2x
0.0x
2.1x
2015E
9.3%
-
9.3%
7.5%
7.2%
3%
2015E
10.2x
14.1x
14.1x
1.0x
2016E
1,140
1,122
786
44%
1,705
1,519
1,321
2016E
43%
2.7x
0.2x
0.0x
2.1x
2016E
10.1%
-
9.3%
8.3%
8.4%
4%
2016E
9.1x
11.7x
11.7x
1.0x
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,
Multiplan Corporate ProfileFINANCIAL METRICS (R$ mn)
Net revenues
Gross Profit
Gross margin
EBIT
EBIT margin
EBITDA
EBITDA margin
Adj. EBITDA
Net financial expenses
Taxes
Reported Net income
Net margin
# shares ('000)
EPS (R$)
NOPAT (before &A)
Depreciation
Amortization
FCFE
Dividends
Total assets
Cash
Debt
PP&E
Net debt
Book value
Invested capital
Market cap.
EV
2011A
632
513
81.2%
391
62%
451
71%
451
32
(118)
298
47%
179
1.7
334
60
0
(236)
149
4,752
558
1,002
3,008
444
3,089
3,745
9,720
10,164
2012A
759
609
80.3%
454
60%
528
70%
528
(42)
(110)
305
40%
179
1.7
418
75
0
(167)
185
5,664
391
1,885
3,953
1,494
3,206
4,806
9,720
11,214
2013E
945
733
77.6%
572
61%
681
72%
681
(111)
(103)
360
38%
187
1.9
578
109
0
325
232
6,654
717
2,081
4,503
1,364
3,960
5,431
9,720
11,085
2014E
1,146
893
77.9%
709
835
835
(118)
(118)
473
190
2.5
717
126
0
107
251
7,299
824
2,400
5,015
1,577
4,191
5,875
9,720
11,297
2015E
1,284
995
77.5%
792
62%
944
73%
944
(155)
(128)
510
40%
190
2.7
816
152
0
80
255
8,076
904
2,839
5,741
1,935
4,455
6,497
9,720
11,655
2016E
1,505
1,179
78.3%
959
64%
1,135
75%
1,135
(172)
(170)
616
41%
190
3.2
965
176
0
326
316
8,617
1,230
3,030
5,946
1,800
4,764
6,671
9,720
11,520
OPERATING METRICS
GLA(YE)
GLA (AVERAGE)
FFO
FFO margin
NOI (comparable calc.)
NOI per sq. meter
EBITDA per sq. meter
LEVERAGE
Net debt / Equity
Net debt / Ebitda
Net debt / Total assets
Capex / Operat.Cash Flow
Total Assets / Equity
RETURN / YIELD
ROIC
WACC
Cost of Equity (ke)
ROE
FFO Yield
Dividend Yield
VALUATION
EV / Adj. EBITDA
P/FFO
P/E
P/BV
2011A
411
382
350
55%
550
1,441
1,183
2011A
14%
1.0x
0.1x
n.a.
1.5x
2011A
12.0%
-
9.0%
11.3%
3.4%
1%
2011A
22.5x
27.8x
32.6x
3.1x
2012A
521
445
372
49%
645
1,447
1,186
2012A
47%
2.8x
0.3x
0.0x
1.8x
2012A
11.0%
-
9.0%
11.6%
3.6%
2%
2012A
21.2x
26.1x
31.9x
3.0x
2013E
560
538
443
47%
798
1,482
1,266
2013E
34%
2.0x
0.2x
0.0x
1.7x
2013E
12.5%
-
9.0%
11.2%
4.3%
2%
2013E
16.3x
21.9x
27.0x
2.5x
2014E
644
639
565
49%
975
1,525
1,306
2014E
38%
1.9x
0.2x
0.0x
1.7x
2014E
14.2%
-
9.0%
13.5%
5.4%
2%
2014E
13.5x
17.2x
20.5x
2.3x
2015E
673
666
623
49%
1,099
1,650
1,417
2015E
43%
2.0x
0.2x
0.0x
1.8x
2015E
14.5%
-
9.0%
14.0%
6.0%
2%
2015E
12.3x
15.6x
19.1x
2.2x
2016E
789
757
747
50%
1,299
1,717
1,500
2016E
38%
1.6x
0.2x
0.0x
1.8x
2016E
17.0%
-
9.0%
15.7%
7.2%
3%
2016E
10.2x
13.0x
15.8x
2.0x
Source: Credit Suisse Research
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Aliansce Corporate ProfileFINANCIAL METRICS (R$ mn)
Net revenues
Gross Profit
Gross margin
EBIT
EBIT margin
EBITDA
EBITDA margin
Adj. EBITDA
Net financial expenses
Taxes
Reported Net income
Net margin
# shares ('000)
EPS (R$)
NOPAT (before &A)
Depreciation
Amortization
FCFE
Dividends
Total assets
Cash
Debt
PP&E
Net debt
Book value
Invested capital
Market cap.
EV
2011A
258
209
81.0%
162
63%
189
73%
189
(37)
(30)
92
36%
139
0.7
159
26
1
(44)
23
2,062
273
744
1,435
471
1,077
1,646
3,186
3,658
2012A
339
272
80.1%
239
70%
281
83%
281
(98)
(40)
129
38%
144
0.9
241
40
2
348
26
3,616
520
1,723
2,570
1,202
1,553
2,891
3,186
4,389
2013E
449
348
77.5%
268
60%
331
74%
331
(183)
(28)
57
13%
159
0.4
303
61
2
(304)
19
4,227
317
2,206
3,318
1,889
1,650
3,660
3,186
5,076
2014E
552
431
78.0%
345
62%
420
76%
420
(220)
(30)
92
17%
159
0.6
390
73
2
50
23
4,461
367
2,360
3,501
1,993
1,719
3,836
3,186
5,179
2015E
620
487
78.5%
396
64%
476
77%
476
(204)
(46)
140
23%
159
0.9
430
78
2
177
23
4,654
544
2,418
3,519
1,874
1,835
3,839
3,186
5,060
2016E
691
549
79.4%
448
65%
530
77%
530
(184)
(64)
194
28%
159
1.2
466
80
2
188
70
4,846
732
2,460
3,509
1,7273
1,960
3,823
3,186
4,914
OPERATING METRICS
GLA(YE)
GLA (AVERAGE)
FFO
FFO margin
NOI (comparable calc.)
NOI per sq. meter
EBITDA per sq. meter
LEVERAGE
Net debt / Equity
Net debt / Ebitda
Net debt / Total assets
Capex / Operat.Cash Flow
Total Assets / Equity
RETURN / YIELD
ROIC
WACC
Cost of Equity (ke)
ROE
FFO Yield
Dividend Yield
VALUATION
EV / Adj. EBITDA
P/FFO
P/E
P/BV
2011A
286
281
119
46%
229
813
671
2011A
44%
2.5x
0.2x
n.a.
1.9x
2011A
11.5%
-
9.6%
11.1%
3.7%
1%
2011A
19.4x
26.3x
34.6x
3.0x
2012A
410
354
138
41%
307
868
794
2012A
77%
4.3x
0.3x
0.0x
2.3x
2012A
9.7%
-
9.9%
8.9%
4.3%
1%
2012A
15.6x
23.1x
24.7x
2.1x
2013E
472
426
120
27%
406
952
777
2013E
115%
5.7x
0.4x
0.0x
2.6x
2013E
9.0%
-
9.9%
7.3%
3.8%
1%
2013E
15.3x
26.6x
55.8x
1.9x
2014E
505
485
167
30%
501
1,032
865
2014E
116%
4.7x
0.4x
0.0x
2.6x
2014E
10.9%
-
9.9%
9.7%
5.2%
1%
2014E
12.3x
19.1x
34.8x
1.9x
2015E
522
513
220
35%
561
1,093
926
2015E
102%
3.9x
0.4x
0.0x
2.5x
2015E
12.4%
-
9.9%
12.0%
6.9%
1%
2015E
10.6x
14.5x
22.8x
1.7x
2016E
540
540
276
40%
627
1,161
982
2016E
88%
3.3x
0.4x
0.0x
2.5x
2016E
13.9%
-
9.9%
14.1%
8.7%
2%
2016E
9.3x
11.5x
16.4x
1.6x
Source: Credit Suisse Research
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Sonae Sierra - Corporate ProfileFINANCIAL METRICS (R$ mn)
Net revenues
Gross Profit
Gross margin
EBIT
EBIT margin
EBITDA
EBITDA margin
Adj. EBITDA
Net financial expenses
Taxes
Reported Net income
Net margin
# shares ('000)
EPS (R$)
NOPAT (before &A)
Depreciation
Amortization
FCFE
Dividends
Total assets
Cash
Debt
PP&E
Net debt
Book value
Invested capital
Market cap.
EV
2012A
257
214
83.2%
197
77%
199
77%
199
(14)
(93)
186
72%
76
2.4
106
0
2
291
27
4,070
682
831
3,252
149
2,092
2,853
1,978
2,127
2011A
219
182
83.2%
174
79%
175
80%
175
23
(12)
231
105%
76
3.0
163
0
1
329
24
3,266
391
400
2,782
9
1,943
2,454
1,978
1,987
2013E
286
238
83.2%
217
76%
220
77%
220
(34)
(34)
102
36%
76
1.3
186
0
3
(136)
42
4,238
546
984
3,549
439
2,152
3,203
1,978
2,417
2014E
383
318
82.9%
289
75%
290
76%
290
(46)
(39)
143
37%
76
1.9
252
0
2
(26)
109
4,375
519
1,054
3,689
535
2,186
3,333
1,978
2,513
2015E
440
364
82.6%
332
75%
332
75%
332
(47)
(46)
168
38%
76
2.2
286
0
0
44
133
4,434
564
1,054
3,689
491
2,221
3,324
1,978
2,469
2016E
472
389
82.5%
355
75%
355
75%
355
(47)
(49)
182
39%
76
2.4
306
0
0
49
147
4,492
613
1,054
3,689
441
2,256
3,309
1,978
2,419
GLA(YE)
GLA (AVERAGE)
FFO
FFO margin
NOI (comparable calc.)
NOI per sq. meter
EBITDA per sq. meter
Net debt / Equity
Net debt / Ebitda
Net debt / Total assets
Capex / Operat.Cash Flow
Total Assets / Equity
ROIC
WACC
Cost of Equity (ke)
ROE
FFO Yield
Dividend Yield
EV / Adj. EBITDA
P/FFO
P/E
P/BV
OPERATING METRICS
LEVERAGE
RETURN / YIELD
VALUATION
270
265
129
59%
184
695
662
0%
0.1x
0.0x
n.a.
1.7x
7.1%
-
11.1%
6.6%
6.5%
1%
11.4x
15.4x
8.6x
1.5x
2011A
2011A
2011A
2011A
291
308
110
43%
220
714
646
7%
0.7x
0.0x
0.0x
1.9x
7.0%
-
11.1%
5.2%
5.6%
1%
13.5x
18.0x
10.7x
1.0x
2012A
2012A
2012A
2012A
331
321
105
37%
250
778
684
20%
2.0x
0.1x
0.0x
2.0x
6.9%
-
11.1%
4.9%
5.3%
2%
13.4x
19.1x
19.6x
0.9x
2013E
2013E
2013E
2013E
433
415
145
38%
334
804
699
24%
1.8x
0.1x
0.0x
2.0x
8.7%
-
11.1%
6.6%
7.3%
5%
10.5x
13.8x
13.9x
0.9x
2014E
2014E
2014E
2014E
433
433
168
38%
382
883
767
22%
1.5x
0.1x
0.0x
2.0x
10.0%
-
11.1%
7.6%
8.5%
7%
9.0x
11.8x
11.8x
0.9x
2015E
2015E
2015E
2015E
433
433
182
39%
409
945
821
20%
1.2x
0.1x
0.0x
2.0x
10.7%
-
11.1%
8.1%
9.2%
7%
8.3x
10.9x
10.9x
0.9x
2016E
2016E
2016E
2016E
Source: Credit Suisse Research
June 18, 20133-Year Price and Rating History for Sonae Sierra Brasil (SSBR3.SA)
DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND THE STATUS OF NON US ANALYSTS. US Disclosu re: Credit Suisse does a nd see ks to do busin ess wi th co mpa nies covered in iresearch reports. As a result, investors should be aware th at the Firm m ay have a confl ict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a singfactor in making their investmen t decision.
7/29/2019 Malls CS June2013
37/38
37
SSBR3.SA Closing Price Target Price
Date (R$) (R$) Rating
15-Mar-11 22.90 32.00 O *
05-Sep-11 24.90 31.50
06-Sep-11 25.99 *
01-Dec-11 23.50 31.00 O
22-Mar-12 29.18 34.00 N
13-Dec-12 29.10 39.00 O
* Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage.
OUTPERFORM
NEUTRAL
The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received Compensation that is based upon various factors including Credit Suisse's totalrevenues, a portion of which are generated by Credit Suisse's investment banking activities
As of December 10, 2012 Analysts stock rating are defined as follows:
Outperform (O) : The stocks total return is expected to outperform the relevant benchmark*over the next 12 months.
Neutral (N) : The stocks total return is expected to be in line with the relevant benchmark* over the next 12 months.
Underperform (U) : The stocks total return is expected to underperform the relevant benchmark* over the next 12 months.
*Relevant benchmark by region: As of 10th December 2012, Japanese ratings are based on a stocks total return relative to the analyst's coverage universe whichconsists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector, with Outperforms representing the most attractive, N eutrals the less attractive, andUnderperforms the least attractive investment opportunities. As of 2nd October 2012, U.S. and Canadian as well as European ratings are based on a stocks total returnrelative to the analyst's coverage universe which consists of a ll companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector, with Outperforms representing the mostattractive, Neutrals the less attractive, and Underperforms the least attractive investment opportunities. For Latin American and non-Japan Asia stocks, ratings arebased on a stocks total return relative to the average total return of the relevant country or regional benchmark; Australia, New Zealand are, and prior to 2nd October2012 U.S. and Canadian ratings were based on (1) a stocks absolute total return potential to its current share price and (2) the relative attractiveness of a stocks totalreturn potential within an analysts coverage universe. For Australian and New Zealand stocks, 12-month rolling yield is incorporated in the absolute total returncalculation and a 15% and a 7.5% threshold replace the 10-15% level in the Outperform and Underperform stock rating definitions, respectively. The 15% and 7.5%thresholds replace the +10-15% and -10-15% levels in the Neutral stock rating definition, respectively. Prior to 10th December 2012, Japanese ratings were based on astocks total return relative to the average total return of the relevant country or r egional benchmark.
Restricted (R) : In certain circumstances, Credit Suisse policy and/or applicable law and regulations preclude certain t ypes of communications,including an investment recommendation, during the course of Credit Suisse's engagement in an investment banking transaction and in certain othercircumstances.
Volatility Indicator [V] : A stock is defined as volatile if the stock price has moved up or down by 20% or more in a month in at least 8 of the past 24months or the analyst expects significant volatility going forward.
Analysts sector weightings are distinct from analysts stock ratings and are based on the analysts expectations for the fundamentals and/or valuation ohe sector* relative to the groups historic fundamentals and/or valuation:
Overweight : The analysts expectation for the sectors fundamentals and/or valuation is favorable over the next 12 months.
Market Weight : The analysts expectation for the sectors fundamentals and/or valuation is neutral over the next 12 months.
Underweight : The analysts expectation for the sectors fundamentals and/or valuation is cautious over the next 12 months.
*An analysts coverage sector consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector. An analyst may cover multiple sectors.
Credit Suisse's distribution of stock ratings (and banking clients) is:
Global Ratings Distribution
Rating Versus universe (%) Of which banking clients (%)
Outperform/Buy* 42% (54% banking clients)Neutral/Hold* 40% (48% banking clients)Underperform/Sell* 15% (39% banking clients)Restricted 3%
*For purposes of the NYSE and NASD ratings distribution disclosure requirements, our stock ratings of Outperform, Neutral, and Underperform most closely correspondto Buy, Hold, and Sell, respectively; however, the meanings are not the same, as our stock ratings are determined on a relative basis. (Please refer to definitions above.)An investo r's decis ion to bu y or sell a secur ity should be based on investm ent obje ctives, cu rrent h oldings, a nd othe r indivi dual fact ors.
Credit Suisses policy is to update research reports as it deems appropriate, based on developments with the subject company, the sector or t he markethat may have a material impact on the research views or opinions stated herein.
Credit Suisse's policy is only to publish investment research that is impartial, independent, clear, fair and not misleading. For more detail please refer toCredit Suisse's Policies for Managing Conflicts of Interest in connection with Investment Research: http://www.csfb.com/research andanalytics/disclaimer/managing_conflicts_disclaimer.html
Credit Suisse does not provide any tax advice. Any statement herein regarding any US federal tax is not intended or written to be used, and cannot beused, by any taxpayer for the purposes of avoiding any penalties.
Please refer to the firm's disclosure website at www.credit-suisse.com/researchdisclosures for the definitions of abbreviations typically used in the targetprice method and risk sections.
See the Companies Mentioned section for full company names
Companies Mentioned (Price as of 14-Jun-2013)
AREZZO INDUSTRIA (ARZZ3.SA, R$34.53)Aliansce Shopping Centers (ALSC3.SA, R$20.05)BR Malls Participacoes (BRML3.SA, R$20.63)CIA Hering S.A. (HGTX3.SA, R$33.09300117)Guararapes Confe (GUAR3.SA, R$88.51)Iguatemi (IGTA3.SA, R$23.2)Le Lis Blanc (LLIS3.SA, R$8.38)Lojas Renner(LREN3.SA, R$66.7)Marisa S.A. (AMAR3.SA, R$22.99)Multiplan Empreendimentos. Imobiliarios S/A (MULT3.SA, R$51.16)Sonae Sierra Brasil (SSBR3.SA, R$25.88)
Disclosure Appendix
Important Global Disclosures
Guilherme Rocha, Nicole Hirakawa and Vanessa Quiroga, CFA each certify, with respect to the companies or securities that the individual analyzes,that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about all of the subject companies and securities and (2) no partof his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
3-Year Price and Rating History for Aliansce Shopping Centers (ALSC3.SA)
ALSC3.SA Closing Price Target Price
Date (R$) (R$) Rating
26-Aug-10 11.43 14.50 O *
06-Dec-10 13.72 17.00 N
05-Sep-11 13.00 18.00 O
06-Sep-11 13.13 *
01-Dec-11 14.35 18.00 O
22-Mar-12 17.10 20.50
19-Aug-12 18.95 24.00
29-Oct-12 22.75 R
21-Jan-13 25.05 30.50 O
* Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage.
OUTPERFORM
NEUTRAL
RESTRICTED
3-Year Price and Rating History for BR Malls Participacoes (BRML3.SA)
BRML3.SA Closing Price Target Price
Date (R$) (R$) Rating
25-Aug-10 6.95 32.00 N
24-Sep-10 14.07 16.50
06-Dec-10 16.60 19.00
28-Feb-11 15.85 20.00
05-Sep-11 18.97 25.00 O
06-Sep-11 19.50 *
01-Dec-11 19.05 24.00 O
22-Mar-12 22.50 27.00
22-Aug-12 24.90 28.00
28-Jan-13 26.00 31.00 N
* Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage.
NEUTRAL
OUTPERFORM
3-Year Price and Rating History for Multiplan Empreendimentos. Imobiliarios S/A (MULT3.SA)
MULT3.SA Closing Price Target Pri
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