2.2b What will climates be like in the future?

To understand that people everywhere will face climate change in the future

To understand some predicted global impactsTo gain an insight into possible risks for the UK and

Bangladesh

Climate futures?Specification Statement-

Future climates are likely to present major challenges to the UK and

especially to people in the developing world

Lessons 5 and 6

Possible Global Impacts• http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/629/629/6528979.stm Climate concerns • While the outcomes may vary from country-to-country, the

report said some "broad consequences" could be predicted: • agriculture and rural development will bear the brunt of climate

risk • extreme poverty and malnutrition will increase as water

insecurity increases • more extreme weather patterns will increase the risk of floods

and droughts • shrinking glaciers and rising sea levels will reduce access to

fresh water• Because industrialised nations have focused their climate change

initiatives on reducing the amount of greenhouse gases being pumped into the atmosphere, support for adaptation in developing countries has been "piecemeal and fragmented", the report says.

Task-Watch the video and make notes on 3) possible impacts of climate change on a global

scale4) Ways to prevent worst scenarios happening

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBAcolFLOs8 video of possible impacts and solutions

Africa• Large increases in numbers facing water scarcity. It is likely to affect livelihoods, the report by the International Panel on Climate Change says.

• Projected reductions in the areas for growing crops, and in length of the growing season, mean increased risk of hunger. In some areas, yields could be reduced by up to 50% by 2020.

• Rising sea levels threaten large cities. Degradation of coral reefs and mangroves is likely, with impacts on local fisheries and tourism.

• Rising temperatures, coupled with over-fishing, will decrease the supply of fish from large lakes, with important impacts on food supplies.

• Arid or semi-arid areas in northern, western, eastern and parts of southern Africa are becoming drier, while equatorial Africa and other parts of southern Africa are getting wetter, the report says.

• The continent is, on average, 0.5C warmer than it was 100 years ago, but temperatures have risen much higher in some areas - such as a part of Kenya which has become 3.5C hotter in the past 20 years, the agencies report.

Asia• Glacier melting in the Himalayas is virtually certain

to disrupt water supplies within the next 20 to 30 years. Floods and rock avalanches are virtually certain to increase. Heavily-populated coastal regions, including the deltas of rivers such as the Ganges and Mekong, are likely to be at risk of increased flooding.

• Economic development is likely to be impacted by the combination of climatic change, urbanisation, and rapid economic and population growth.

• Forecast changes in temperature and rainfall are likely to reduce crop yields overall, increasing the risk of hunger.

• The presence of lethal diarrhoeal diseases associated with floods and droughts is expected to rise in East, South and Southeast Asia and rises in coastal water temperature could exacerbate cholera in South Asia.

Australasia• Ongoing water shortages, notably in

southern and eastern Australia, are likely to get worse by 2030.

• Ecologically important regions such as the Great Barrier Reef and Kakadu National Park are likely to lose a significant part of their wildlife before then, by 2020.

• Some coastal communities are very likely to see an increased risk of coastal storms and flooding.

• Temperature rises of 1C-2C are likely to bring benefits to cooler areas, such as New Zealand, in the form of longer growing seasons and reduced energy demand. Greater warming is likely to bring a net negative impact - such as increased risk of drought and fire.

Europe• Nearly all European regions are expected to

be negatively affected by some future impacts of climate change.

• Central and Eastern European countries could face less summer rainfall, causing higher water stress. Health risks due to heat waves are expected to increase. Forest productivity is expected to fall and the frequency of peatland fires to increase.

• Southern European countries are very likely to see reduced water supplies, lower crop production, more wildfires and health impacts from increased heatwaves.

• Northern countries are likely to benefit from increased crop yields, forest productivity, and food supplies from the North Atlantic. By 2020, most areas of Europe are likely to see an increased flood risk.

South and Central America

• Increasing temperatures and decreases in soil water in the eastern Amazon region would lead to replacement of tropical forest by savannah. Species extinctions are likely.

• Drier areas are likely to see salinisation and desertification of agricultural land, with falling crop yields and livestock productivity reducing food security. However, soybean yields are likely to increase in temperate zones.

• Sea level rise is very likely to bring flooding to low-lying regions such as the coast of El Salvador, Guyana and the Rio de la Plata estuary. Increasing sea temperatures are likely to impact coral reefs and south-east Pacific fish stocks.

• Changes in rainfall patterns and the disappearance of glaciers are projected to significantly affect water availability for human consumption, agriculture and energy generation.

North America

• Warming in western mountains is very likely to reduce snowpack, bringing more floods in winter and reduced water supplies in summer.

• Increases in problems with pests, diseases and forest fires are likely.

• Cities with a history of heat waves are likely to experience many more, with potential health impacts, especially for the elderly.

• Rising sea levels, severe weather and storm surges, combined with population growth in coastal areas, are very likely to increase economic losses.

Arctic and Polar Regions• Reductions are likely in the thickness

and extent of glaciers and ice sheets, and the extent of sea ice and permafrost.

• The depth of summer permafrost melting is likely to increase.

• Changes to natural ecosystems are likely to impact migrating birds, mammals and higher predators adversely. Specific ecosystems and habitats are expected to be vulnerable, as climatic barriers to species invasions are lowered.

• There are virtually certain to be both negative and positive effects on Arctic peoples. Detrimental impacts would include those on infrastructure and traditional indigenous ways of life while beneficial effects would include reduced heating costs and more navigable northern sea routes.

Small low rise Islands

• Sea level rise is likely to worsen floods, storm surges and coastal erosion, with impacts on the socio-economic wellbeing of island communities.

• Beach erosion and coral bleaching are likely to reduce tourism.

• There is strong evidence that water resources in small islands are likely to be seriously compromised.

• Increased invasion by non-native species is likely.

6 degrees could change our world!!!• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_ZQRIsn2pA&feature=PlayList&p=119AB9F85D2F3E17&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=5

what if temp raises by 1 degree?• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-0_gDXqYeQ&feature=PlayList&p=119AB9F85D2F3E17&index=6

by 2 degrees?• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6rdLu7wiZOE&feature=PlayList&p=119AB9F85D2F3E17&index=7

by 3 degrees• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=skFrR3g4BRQ&feature=PlayList&p=119AB9F85D2F3E17&index=8

by 4 degrees• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nRf2RTqANg&feature=PlayList&p=119AB9F85D2F3E17&index=9

by 5 degrees• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O8qmaAMK4cM&feature=PlayList&p=119AB9F85D2F3E17&index=10

by 6 degrees

Task

Produce a piece of work called ‘6 degrees could change our world’ It could be a written piece describing possible impacts or a visual illustration of the predicted possible impacts based on the globe warming by 6 degrees

Task-• Using the handouts you have been given and the video notes you

took on possible global impacts of Climate Change- produce an annotated world map of the possible impacts across the globe

Possible Impacts on the UK• By 2080, London will be between 2C and 6C

hotter than it is now, Every part of the UK is likely to be wetter in winter and drier in summer, according to the projections.

• Summer rainfall could decrease by about 20% in the south of England and in Yorkshire and Humberside by the middle of the century.

• An effective global deal at December's UN climate talks in Copenhagen could keep the summer temperature rise in southern England to about 2C, the projections suggest.

• But if greenhouse gas emissions rise quickly, that figure could be as high as 12C,

• "This research confirms that not only is climate change already having a serious impact in Britain, but that we are also locked into further impacts, and that these impacts will get much worse unless we act now to tackle the problem."

By 2020• http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/climateexperiment/whattheymean/theuk.shtml

weather forecast• Excess summer heat- watch the clip and answer these questions-• Why will the problem be worse in cities? • What is the Urban Heat Island phenomenon? • What are they doing on London Underground to try and combat

rising temperatures?• What happens to train tracks and tar on roads in hot weather?• http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/climateexperiment/whattheymean/theuk.shtml

What will happen to Summers in the SE?• What downsides are there to the proposed new reservoir at

Abingdon?• http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/climateexperiment/whattheymean/theuk.shtml

Why are cars a problem?

The Urban Heat Island Effect

• The idea that urban (city) areas will always be marginally warmer than rural areas due to the higher numbers of people, greenhouse gas emissions, traffic, etc. Also man made materials like buildings absorb more heat than green areas do

• More people = more heat

By 2050?

• http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/climateexperiment/whattheymean/theuk.shtml weather forecast-

• What changes will there be in Summer?• Winter? White Christmas?• http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/climateexperiment/whattheymean/theuk.shtml

• What may happen to some of the wildlife in the Scottish

Highlands? Ptarmigan? Salmon? Sled dogs?• http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/climateexperiment/whattheymean/theuk.shtml

• What will happen to farmers and animals in Devon? Olives?

Almonds?

By 2080?

• http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/climateexperiment/whattheymean/theuk.shtml • What will happen to winters? Summers? Which areas will be at risk from

sea level rises?• http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/climateexperiment/whattheymean/theuk.shtml • How will buildings change? • What is BedZED? What is it like? Why doesn’t it need heating? Why is this

good? Where does hot water come from? How does it save water?• http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/climateexperiment/whattheymean/theuk.shtml • How many cm do people predict sea levels in SE UK will have risen by? What

will the impacts of this be?• What will the impact be of the Thames barrier being breached? • Why is it bad to be building on the Thames Gateway- a flood plain of the

river Thames?• http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/climateexperiment/whattheymean/theuk.shtml • What are the worst case scenarios post 2080? • If Greenland Ice sheet is lost how much would sea level rise by?• What impacts would this have on the UK?• What would the consequences be if the frozen peat bogs storing methane

thawed out?• What could happen to the Amazon rainforest?• Why will we suffer if climate change impacts on other countries?

Task

• Complete the sheets potential impacts of climate change on the UK

Homework• Produce a storyboard outlining the possible risks to

the UK of Climate Change

How are we responsible for Iman- a shrimp farmer in Bangladesh?

3 months ago a tidal river burst its banks

and left him in water up to his chest

Since abandoning rice farming he has been a

shrimp farmer, he makes more cash but has more to spend it

on as he no longer feeds on his own

crops

Iman has had to abandon rice farming as his paddy fields

became increasingly contaminated with sea water from the rising

sea

Iman used to be a rice farmer in a paddy fields he

would feed himself and his family and then sell excess crop for money

If sea level rises by another metre Iman and up to 40 million others will have to leave their homes as they will be

permanently submerged below water

1/3 of Bangladesh lies in a delta where 3

main rivers meet the sea at the Bay of Bengal. Land lies

below sea level there

Bangladesh has a population of 145 million and is only

marginally larger than the UK which has only

65 million people

He and other locals have repaired the

breach in the protective

embankment themselves with silt from the river bed

Iman’s sons have left him in order to find

work in the big cities in India he now sees them

only twice a year

His drinking water is tasting more of salt

every day

Over the past 3 decades the sea level around his house has

risen 3 metres

He lives in a mud house in the coastal

region of Munshiganj,

Iman Ali Gain is a 65 year old shrimp farmer

in SW Bangladesh

Bangladesh- a victim of it’s geography?

• Bangladesh has three great rivers the Brahmaputra, the Padma and the Meghna around 230 smaller rivers flow into these.

• As there are so many people living in the country, they have to use every bit of land available for farming, even the riverbanks. These riverbanks are prone to erosion and people frequently plunge into extreme poverty when they lose their land and homes due to erosion.

• floods are an annual event, and seem to be becoming more frequent. In 2004, a deluge destroyed 80% of the country's crops, killed 747 people and left 30 million homeless or stranded.

• Temperature increase caused by climate change will mean that more snow will melt in the Himalayas each summer. This water will run into the rivers increasing the chances of flooding and river erosion. If the snow melts fully, it will mean increased flooding.

• The country could receive 14% more rainfall by 2028, meaning more land will be flooded. Many of those living in coastal areas will have to move inland where the population is already high. So overcrowding will be worse

• Increased sea levels mean that salt is getting into the soil, making fields near the coast useless for farming. The salt is also killing off mangrove forests that are a vital protection against cyclones, storms and tsunamis.

• Climate change could also increase the number and intensity of tropical storms in the area.

• Predictions suggest that climate change could mean that by 2050, 15 million people may be made environmental refugees in Bangladesh. Comprehensive flood control and emergency measures must be taken immediately.

Bangladesh- a victim of it’s geography?

Question

• Why could it be said that Bangladesh is a victim of its Geography?

Task One

Watch the video and make notes on the following-2) Why is Bangladesh so vulnerable?3) What might the effects of climate change be on

Bangladesh?4) What are people doing to try and cope with

predicted effects?http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TpiR-lpYCV0&feature=related 24 minute docu ‘does anyone care if Bangladesh drowns?’

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lQxJijXnRg&feature=related 1st part of above docu

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NMB4xU2ppE&feature=related 2nd part of above docu

What has happened?

How will this affect Bangladeshi’s who live their?

How will it impact on other places in the world?

• Experts say one-third of Bangladesh’s coastline could be flooded if the sea rises 1 meter (3.3 feet) in the next 50 years, washing away the homes and farms of at least 20 million Bangladeshis. That number is about the same as Australia’s population.

• “We are taking steps to face the threats of climate change. Bangladesh needs $4 billion to build embankments, cyclone shelters, roads and other infrastructure in the next 15 years to mitigate the threats,” said Mohammad Aminul Islam Bhuiyan, the top bureaucrat in the government’s Economic Relations Division.

• And even those farther inland will not be safe from the effects. Saline water will creep deeper inland, fouling water supplies. Crops and livestock will also suffer, experts say.

• Scientists tell us that the most profoundly damaging impact of climate change in Bangladesh will take form in floods, salinity intrusion and droughts, all of which will drastically affect crop productivity and food security.

• We will also face riverbank erosion, sea water level rise and lack of fresh water in the coastal zones.

• The prognosis is more extreme floods in a country already devastated by floods; less food for a country in which half our children already don't have enough to eat; and less clean water for a country where waterborne diseases are already responsible for 24% of all deaths.

• The last two decades have witnessed ever more frequent and intense flooding. In 2004, 38% of our country was ravaged by floods, which destroyed more than three quarters of our crops, left 10 million people homeless, and in their wake diseases such as dysentery and diarrhoea. It is the equivalent of the Thames flooding Westminster, the South Bank and the City of London repeatedly, washing away businesses and homes, leaving families desperate and desolate and some people dead.

• Were the Earth to warm by just one degree Celsius, 11% of Bangladesh would be submerged, putting the lives of 55 million people in danger.

http://vimeo.com/groups/10716/videos/5027546 Geetu a fisherman- his story

How has Climate change affected Geetu?Who helped him?Where do you think he would be if he did not receive

the help?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3wAS5qgncA

• What impacts is climate change having in the area?• What impacts does salinisation have on the crops?#• Why is shrimp farming getting harder?• What are the several problems climate change is

imposing on Bangladesh?• Why will many people be displaced by end of century?• Why are Bangladeshi people not responsible for the

situation?

Who pays? Bangladesh?Answer these summary questions in as much detail as

possible?• Describe all possible impacts on Bangladesh from

Climate change- sea levels, impacts on people, the environment, the country itself

• Explain why Bangladesh is likely to be one of the countries that suffers most from the impacts of Climate change

• How can we in the west aid Bangladesh?

Homework

• Revise for end of unit test next lesson