Transcript
Page 1: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

Laura C. Leviton

Special Advisor for Evaluation

The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation

Winter Alumni College

Reed College, January 20, 2010

How Technology Affects Health

Robert Wood Johnson Foundation is the largest philanthropy devoted to improving the health and health care of all Americans. Visit us at www.rwjf.org These are my views and do not represent the positions of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation

World Health Organization definition of health: Health is a state of complete physical, mental and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity. The correct bibliographic citation for the definition is: Preamble to the Constitution of the World Health Organization as adopted by the International Health Conference, New York, 19-22 June, 1946; signed on 22 July 1946 by the representatives of 61 States (Official Records of the World Health Organization, no. 2, p. 100) and entered into force on 7 April 1948. The Definition has not been amended since 1948. http://www.who.int/about/definition/en/print.html

Page 2: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

This Presentation Will Cover

A. Increased lifespan: relative contributions of

• public health technology

• medical care technology

B. Imbalance between medicine & public health

C. Better medicine is an interaction among

• technology

• science

• human relationships

D. Better public health is also an interaction

among these things

Page 3: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

Public Health vs. Medical Care

Public Health

Technologies:

Population Focused

Most are Preventive

Medical Care

Technolgies:

Individual Focused

Most are Curative

•First we need to define the difference. •Difference in focus •PH does prevention although some health departments have to do medical care for indigent. •Medical care is mostly curative although doctors regularly advise prevention

Page 4: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

Public Health

Technologies:

Populations

Most are Preventive

Many Are Highly

Beneficial

Medical Care

Technologies:

Individual

Most are Curative

Beneficial? Some Are,

Some Ain’t

Public Health vs. Medical Care

•Doctors WANT to do the right thing. •They care deeply about public health as seen in policy related discussions •But their focus is individual and increasingly their hands are tied.

Page 5: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

Medical Technology Is Not Always Beneficial

Fetal Montoring

No benefit in normal

delivery

Increases C Sections

•Example: Fetal monitoring •It CAN be necessary with high risk pregnancy •But not normal pragenancies. •Leads to more C sections

•Many C Sections not necessary – about half are not needed •C Sections costly and recovery slower • it makes future C Sections more likely •Possible problems with placenta

•This is one heck of a costly machine •We find uses for technology – but they aren’t always right.

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Increased Life Span Is Mostly Due to

Better Nutrition and Sanitation

These are technological changes that prevent disease and affect

populations: i.e. public health.

In 1900 the average life span was just over 47 years. In 1950 it was a little over 68 years and in 2008 it was almost 78 years. Remember our definitions—public health focuses on populations and prevention. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_health

Page 7: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

Food Became Cheaper and

Healthier

Without It…

Anemia

Beri-Beri

Cardiovascular

Disease

Diabetes

Goiter

Kwashiorikor

Low Birthweight

Marasmus

Mental Impairment

Osteoporosis

Pellagra

Rickets

Scurvy

Spina Bifida

Starvation

•But you gotta know what to eat.

•There was better nutrition because agriculture became more efficient and cheap. • On the right a long list of nutrition related diseases •But you also have to know what to eat. •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups. •This advice is a public health function: population health and prevention •You might say: that’s agriculture, not public health •The systems overlap •Some are clearly public health technology:

•Iodine deficiency causes goiter and mental impairments: Iodine in salt •You read about fortifying grains with folic acid to prevent spina bifida •Calcium & Vitamin D to prevent osteoporosis •Less fat in diet: cardiovascular disease and diabetes •Obesity and calories/portion size •Corn sweeteners and calories/ obesity in children

•Notice how agricultural policy is at odds with public health in the obesity area •Obesity replacing smoking as #1 preventable health problem in US

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Without It… Cholera

Diarrhea STILL the major child killer

in the developing world

E Coli

Giardiasis

Hepatitis A

Schistosomiasis

Typhoid

Etc., etc.

Better Sanitation

•Also, sanitation improved throughout the 19th and 20th centuries. •Without it diseases ranging from cholera to typhoid •And outrageously, diarrhea – still the major child killer in developing countries •And why? Governments won’t fund decent water systems •Sorry to say, your toilet is backed up (click to next slide)… ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- •Cholera outbreak in Peru 1991

•You can get cholera treatment through medical care, ok •but costly– nice if you can afford it •what about the poor?

Page 9: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

Water Treatment Plant, Portland

•Your toilet is backed up by a lot of technology! •This is a picture of the Portland water treatment plant on the Columbia •I visited, thanks to Katie Bretsch, class of 1974 •Katie worked for, in her words, The department of where it goes when you flush ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ This being Reed, a dose of Hum 110 •Romans had this technology:

•Water pipes and aqueducts •Sewers – the Cloaca Maxima flowed into Tiber •Kept their waste out of their water supply pretty well •Still lots of infectious disease in crowed unsanitary conditions •I’d hate to live downstream from Rome!

Page 10: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

Public Health, Not Medical Care

•Now take a look at the causes of health and illness today. •This slide summarizes the major determinants of health, estimated in 1993 and 2002 •Down at the bottom, healthcare directly responsible for about 10% of our health •We know more about the human genome and disease, so increase from 20 to 30%

•This will affect medical care in future – we just don’t know quite how yet •Then environment – things like pollution, injuries, access to healthy food

•Turns out most of this is social •Where you live, income, & social status affect your health (readings) •Public health tech affects this: injury control, pollution control, e.g. for asthma

•Finally, behavioral: down to 40% from 50% but still a huge factor •Can public health affect this? Look at smoking rates •1964 Surgeon General’s report caused whopping decline

•42.4% in 1965 to 25.5% in 1990 •Surgeon General heads the Public Health Service •This was a population-wide communication •Doctors did not consistently offer this advice, although it’s powerful when they do

•Now, tax on cigarettes, clean indoor air promote even more decline •20.6% in 2008 •The remaining smokers are mostly addicted, need nicotine replacement (medical care!)

•proud to say that Robert Wood Johnson Foundation stimulated lots of this

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8411605 http://content.healthaffairs.org/cgi/content/abstract/21/2/78

Page 11: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

Public Health

Technologies:

Populations

Most are Preventive

Many Are Highly Beneficial

Long Term

Often Invisible

Medical Care

Technologies:

Individual

Most are Curative

Some Are, Some Ain’t

Often Immediate

Highly Visible

Imbalance Between Public Health & Medical Care

•So if public health is so important, why do we think about medical care when we think about health? •Medical care is

•Highly visible •Often dramatic •Often has immediate effects •Although care of chronic disease often does not – increasing issue around the globe

•Public health is often invisible

•How do you show what you prevented? •Many effects are long term •Changes in RATES of problems, not individual success

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Good Technologies Become Invisible

We focus on the visible & new.

We neglect the old technologies.

For example:

Primary medical care versus specialty care

Antibiotic resistance

They come back to bite us.

•We can see this with two examples •Primary care is your family doctor –

•internist, general practitioner, family medicine •Their work is not glamorous •But they put all the pieces together– specialists literally CAN’T

•Most of the glamorous advances have been in specialty care •Think open heart surgery or oncology

•But specialists get a lot more money and status •Too many specialists, not enough primary care doctors in US

•Can’t find a primary care doc in Boston these days •Not enough focus on the whole person and their connected issues

•Cost of specialty care •Antibiotic resistance

•We take antibiotics for granted •Feed them to cattle •Take them for the wrong thing

•Resistant strains – superbugs and resistant infections in hospitals, TB, AIDS, etc.

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How Do We Think about Health Technology?

“Gee Whiz” gadgets

Scary things

But what about

Effectiveness?

Cost-effectiveness?

Population Benefit?

Social Justice?

All this affects how we think of health tech. •We have to look at the effectiveness, and the cost-effectiveness,

•Society can’t afford useless treatments •Also, what about population benefit?

•It’s a rate, or prevalence, not an individual case. •It’s the public good. •As we’ll see, there’s a real issue here.

•Social justice •Expenditure on fetal montor vs

•Solving low birthweight problem •Poor minority women

Page 14: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

“If I can think

of it,

it must be important.”

Probability and Prevalence

Humans just don’t get it

Bias in decision making

Availability heuristic

Recent / vivid

Dreaded /catastrophic

Perceived control

Man-made problem

Page 15: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

Lifetime Odds of Death

From:

Motor vehicle

crash 1 in 85

Assault with gun 1 in 300

Pedestrian accident 1 in 623

Medical complications 1 in 1,523

Bicycle accident 1 in 4,147

Plane crash 1 in 5,862

Lightning 1 in 81,701

War 1 in 137,141

Snakebite 1 in 479,992

Terrorism 0

?

Humans just don’t get it.

Source: National Safety Council, 2009

•Here’s an illustration of the problem •On the right you see the lifetime chances of dying from a list of problems •I’ve highlighted two causes of death:

•Motor vehicle crash vs plane crash •You’ve heard more recently about fear of flying after 911

•Yet people get blithely behind the wheel and don’t use seat belt. •Now, people really hate these lists.

•They even get mad. •They just can’t relate to probability like this •It seems irrelevant.

•Classic case: being struck by lightning, listed here. •Seems patronizing and minimizing important problems.

•But choices in public interest mean we have to pay attention

Page 16: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

Lifetime Odds of Death

From:

Motor vehicle crash 1 in 85

Assault with gun 1 in 300

Pedestrian accident 1 in 623

Medical complications 1 in 1,523

Bicycle accident 1 in 4,147

Plane crash 1 in 5,862

Lightning 1 in 81,701

War 1 in 137,141

Snakebite 1 in 479,992

Terrorism 0

Policymakers

are human

(mostly)

Source: National Safety Council, 2009

•This slide is here because •policy makers have to take these issues into account •But just like the rest of us they often ignore prevalence and probability

•For example in the US: •Chances of death from assault with a gun are 1 in 300 •Chances of death from terrorism are as close to zero as you can get!

•We’d like to keep it that way, of course… •This is not an argument about Homeland Security

•But we’re neglecting slaughter of young black and Latino men •We know why that is. •That’s why policy makers are human, MOSTLY.

•They allocate resources •Part of that is based on health considerations •Not everything -- We don’t ask how many babies will die to fund the arts for example •Health is ONE consideration

•BUT you’d like it to be consistent on the basis of health concerns! (Although these data are domestic US, the relative rates are not going to be that different – less gun violence where guns are not plentiful, but even in Australia, snakebite is still relatively rare compared to pedestrian accident.)

Page 17: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

Lifetime Odds of Death

From:

Motor vehicle crash 1 in 85

Assault with gun 1 in 300

Pedestrian accident 1 in 623

Medical

complications 1 in 1,523

Bicycle accident 1 in 4,147

Plane crash 1 in 5,862

Lightning 1 in 81,701

War 1 in 137,141

Snakebite 1 in 479,992

Terrorism 0

Doctors are human too

Source: National Safety Council, 2009

•Doctors want to do the right thing •This is not about doctors making mistakes. •It’s about where physicians decide to focus and why quality improvement is hard •They’re appropriately focused on individuals •It takes a concerted effort to focus on issues of prevalence and patterns

•Anesthesia – brought the rates of complications down to near zero •Infant mortality – each case reviewed to examine cause

•As a result, obstetricians and neonatologists made great strides in care •I’ll give example of how this can work, later. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- What are odds? (from Odds are just an alternative way of expressing the likelihood of an event such as catching the flu. Probability is the expected number of flu patients divided by the total number of patients. Odds would be the expected number of flu patients divided by the expected number of non-flu patients. During the flu season, you might see ten patients in a day. One would have the flu and the other nine would have something else. So the probability of the flu in your patient pool would be one out of ten. The odds would be one to nine.

Page 18: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

Public Health

Technologies:

Populations

Most are Preventive

Many Are Highly Beneficial

Long Term

Often Invisible

Underappreciated

Underfinanced

Medical Care

Technologies:

Individual

Most are Curative

Some Are, Some Ain’t

Often Immediate

Highly Visible

Over-Valued

Too Costly

Imbalance Between Public Health & Medical Care

These issues lead to a situation where there’s an imbalance.

Page 19: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

Public Health is Underfunded:

2% of Federal and State Expenditures on Health

Sources:

Government Spending in the United States of America

www.usgovernmentspending.com

Trust for America’s Health: Shortchanging America’s Health, 2009

http://healthyamericans.org/report/61/shortchanging09

Medical Care (98%)

• Federal per capita

$2,103.9

• State per capita

$1,205.0

Fiscal 2008

Public Health (2%)

• Federal per capita

$17.60

• State per capita

$33.71

Fiscal 2008

In 2008, only 2% of federal and state funds for health went to public health. http://healthyamericans.org/report/61/shortchanging09 www.usgovernmentspending.com

Page 20: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

Medical Care

Individual

Most are Curative

Some Are, Some Ain’t

Often Immediate

Highly Visible

Over-valued

Expenditures Drive

Out Everything

Else

A Dangerous Imbalance

Public Health

Populations

Most are Preventive

Many are Highly Beneficial

Long Term

Often Invisible

Underappreciated

Underfinanced

•This is a DANGEROUS imbalance. •And unfortunately, expenditures on medical care drive out EVERY other consideration

•They make us less competitive in the world •We can’t get coverage of 47 million people because we fear the cost •Policy makers are so obsessed with this that they can’t focus on anything else •I can tell you this – our foundation sponsors a Health Forum in DC

•If it’s about cost, standing room only for Congressional staffers •Anything else – even bioterrorism – can’t get traction

Page 21: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

Personal Health Care Expenditures

by Type of Expenditure, 1965–2018

As you can see personal health care expenditures continue to rise exponentially At the same time, a recent RAND study in your readings indicated that people get only 50% of the right care. Just what are we buying, anyway? http://www.randcompare.org/us-health-care-today/spending#distribution-of-health-care-spending

Page 22: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

How Do We Get Value from Health Care?

Is a technology worth the cost?

Effectiveness= adoption by

medicine

Getting the right care is an

interaction of

Technology

Science

Human Relationships

•If that’s the central problem, then we need to ask: [read slide] •In a study recently conducted by RAND, in all forms of medical care people only got 50% of the right care.

•This is NOT doctors’ fault •Too much to do •Too complex •Too much to learn and remember

Page 23: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

Choosing Effective Medical Technology

Randomized Clinical Trials (RCT)

Technology often has smaller effects than we think.

Compared to less-controlled studies:

RCT conclusions less optimistic

Treatment

Group

Control

Group

Patients

•The first challenge is to make sure that we choose effective medical technology •That is why we do randomized clinical trials, or RCTs •People often don’t understand what exactly this is •Patients are randomly assigned

•Either to receive a treatment •Or to a control group, most often usual care •Sometimes study has more than two arms

•That’s after a whole lot of •Developmental tests •Patient safety considerations •Ethical debates

•Random assignment is not well-understood •It’s not careless or helter skelter •It’s VERY careful •It’s a lottery •It’s our best defense against biased results

•In medicine, it regularly happens that the RCTs show less optimistic effects http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/pdf_extract/198/4318/684

Page 24: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

Importance of Cochrane Library

These Work: These Do NOT Work

Depression: SSRI = St John’s Wort SSRI = Cognitive

Therapy

Smoking cessationNicotine replacementNurse-led counseling

Glucosamine for arthritis

Vitamin C for colds

Bed rest for lower back pain

Abstinence-only sex education

Nutrition supplements for people with HIV

Hypnotism for smoking cessation

•This is why Cochrane Library is so important • It collects ALL the RCTs •Looks at their quality

Page 25: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

Steroids for Preterm Labor

Matures organs of the fetus

Prevents:

Respiratory distress syndrome –“blue baby”

Bleeding inside brain

Death

Obstetricians did not use

We got them to do it

(Leviton et al., JAMA 1999)

•I want to return to the case of steroids for preterm labor •Preterm babies can suffer

•Respiratory distress syndrome – little lungs aren’t developed •blue baby

•Bleeding inside the brain •Causes brain damage and cerebral palsy

•A $3 shot of a steroid matures the organs of the fetus •Less death and disability, less time on respirator

•Obstetricians were not using it •Why:

•Fear of steroid – disguises infection in the mother •Wait and watch – then she gives birth - Opportunity was lost

•Message was clear: “Just Do It.” And they did •Leviton, L.C., Goldenberg, R.L., Baker, C.S., Freda, M., et al. Randomized Controlled Trial of Methods to Encourage the Use of Antenatal Corticosteroid Therapy for Fetal Maturation. J American Medical Assn, 1999, 281 (1): 46-52

Page 26: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

Steroids for Preterm Labor: Maternal Infections

I wanted to show you an example of how Cochrane Library displays the evidence. Here you see all 12 RCTs of the effects of the steroids on maternal infections The bottom line is there’s nothing there, but we needed to reassure obstetricians.

Page 27: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

Steroids for Preterm Labor: Maternal Infections

•Here’s the different studies •they make sure to get ALL of them •This is to avoid bias •Unpublished studies less likely to be statistically significant

•There would be a lot more studies if we were looking at infant outcomes, but this is easier to read.

Page 28: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

Steroids for Preterm Labor: Maternal Infections

•Here you see comparison of treatment and control group for each study. •It shows

•the number of infections in each group •divided by the number of patients in each group •So in the first study by Amorim, 1999

•2 women out of 110 in the treatment group were infected •1 woman out of 108 in the control group was infected

•Infection is still pretty rare, so this can vary within a study •But across studies it stabilizes

Page 29: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

Steroids for Preterm Labor: Maternal Infections

•Then they turn that into a number • indicating the risk of infection in the treatment group •relative to the control group •If it’s 1, there’s no difference •If it’s less than one, there’s fewer infections in treatment group •If it’s greater than one, there’s more infections in treatment group

In statistics and mathematical epidemiology, relative risk (RR) is the risk of an event (or of developing a disease) relative to exposure. Relative risk is a ratio of the probability of the event occurring in the exposed group versus a non-exposed group. Another term for the relative risk is the risk ratio because it is the ratio of the risk in the exposed divided by the risk in the unexposed. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Relative_risk

Page 30: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

Steroids for Preterm Labor: Maternal Infections

•This is how Cochrane Library displays the results. •The dots are the number I just spoke about, the relative risk. •Some dots are bigger than others because the studies are better, e.g. bigger sample •The vertical line indicates a relative risk of 1, in other words, no difference. •The horizontal lines indicate the range within which the estimate might lie

•The 95% confidence interval •If these lines cross the vertical line, that means the result is not statistically significant – due to chance only

Page 31: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

Steroids for Preterm Labor: Maternal Infections

Down at the bottom you see the summary This is as close to nothing as you can possibly get. Maternal infections are just not a problem Obstetricians should stop worrying about it.

Page 32: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

Doctors Want To Do the Right Thing

Obstacles

How do we get quality improvement?

Authoritative statements: “benefit outweighs risk”

Payment (maybe…)

Doctors are hungry to talk with each other.

Social and professional networks

Project Echo, Sermo (in readings)

•So how can doctors bring their practice in line with what we know is effective? •One way is authoritative statements

•This is what we did with steroid case •You could pay doctors for the more effective care

•There’s real questions about whether this works, though •Doctors want to practice the right care •Other things are getting in their way

•What doctors often are hungry for, and respond to are working with their peers •That’s why the health group’s readings include Project Echo and Sermo •Both of them are technological ways to activate those professional networks

Page 33: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

Project ECHO is a telemedicine program that allows doctors to share cases with experts in order to improve care. Located in New Mexico – rural state Need a way to get best medical advice quickly Slide shows location of Project ECHO’s telemedicine partners

Page 34: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

Project ECHO Telemedicine

Here’s a picture of the consultations in progress. They won the Ashoka prize for disruptive medical innovations. http://www.changemakers.com/node/1036

Now they want to expand this idea to rural India.

Page 35: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

Sermo

•Sermo is the largest online network of •Front-line doctors •100,000 members •About 1/3 of all practicing US doctors

•Big draw because they can privately share their cases •No advertising, no insurance pressure, no authoritative statements… just them and their colleagues You can explore at http://www.sermo.com/about/introduction

Page 36: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

Getting Public Health Right

Like medicine, also an interaction of

Technology

Science

Human Relationships

Gee Whiz photos

courtesy of the CDC

“Hot Lab”

•Like medicine, we need to get public health right, too •It’s not all effective and terrific •Public health is languishing.

•There is a “gee whiz” element, though •The guy in the red space suit is not washing his smelly socks •He’s in the CDC “hot lab” working with ebola, plague, and other goodies

•The building is the CDC hot lab itself •The building has laminar air flow, meaning that air is always flowing TOWARD the germs. •The work areas are separated from the rest of the building •If there’s an earthquake, the building will divide in two, isolating the germs.

Page 37: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

Scary and Visible at Last…

•And public health gets to be scary and visible at last, •Courtesy of the anthrax attacks of 2001 •And concerns about weaponized germs and bioterrorism

•To the left you see CDC’s web page on preparedness •With anthrax featured

•On the right you see a journal of CDC, Emerging Infectious Diseases •Special issue on bioterrorism

•The feds gave CDC and state health departments a lot more money after 9/11 •However, it’s distorted all of public health •Vital things like maternal and child health are still underfunded and ignored.

Page 38: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

Less Visible, but Vital

Surveillance: the ongoing systematic collection, collation,

analysis and interpretation of data and informing those

who need to know to take action (WHO)

Technology

Computer analysis

Labs

Phones

Production of medicines

Science

Epidemiology

Statistics

Human Interaction

•I wanted to give you an example of a vital public health activity that gets no visibility at all. •Surveillance – poor choice of words. •Defined by World Health Organization as [read slide] http://www.who.int/csr/labepidemiology/surveillancesystems/en/ •Epidemiology according to CDC : "the study of the distribution and determinants of health-related states in specified populations, and the application of this study to control health problems." we can talk more about what that means if you like. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Study—Epidemiology is the basic science of public health. It's a highly quantitative discipline based on principles of statistics and research methodologies. Distribution—Epidemiologists study the distribution of frequencies and patterns of health events within groups in a population. To do this, they use descriptive epidemiology, which characterizes health events in terms of time, place, and person. Determinants—Epidemiologists also attempt to search for causes or factors that are associated with increased risk or probability of disease. This type of epidemiology, where we move from questions of "who," "what," "where," and "when" and start trying to answer "how" and "why," is referred to as analytical epidemiology. Health-related states—Although infectious diseases were clearly the focus of much of the early

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epidemiological work, this is no longer true. Epidemiology as it is practiced today is applied to the whole spectrum of health-related events, which includes chronic disease, environmental problems, behavioral problems, and injuries in addition to infectious disease. Populations—One of the most important distinguishing characteristics of epidemiology is that it deals with groups of people rather than with individual patients. Control—Finally, although epidemiology can be used simply as an analytical tool for studying diseases and their determinants, it serves a more active role. Epidemiological data steers public health decision making and aids in developing and evaluating interventions to control and prevent health problems. This is the primary function of applied, or field, epidemiology. Source: Centers for Disease Control http://www.cdc.gov/excite/classroom/intro_epi.htm

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In this example World Health Organization Eradication of polio http://www.who.int/csr/labepidemiology/surveillancesystems/en/ Can we do it? We eradicated smallpox, a great story. http://www.cdc.gov/Features/SmallpoxEradication/

Page 41: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

In this example http://www.who.int/csr/labepidemiology/surveillancesystems/en/ Interaction of human relationships / technology Red bars – cases Blue – completion of treatment Green – cures You can see over time the bars converge – more cures Public health nurses even have to stand over people to see that they take their meds. But we can do this because it is a reportable disease and health departments have police powers for clear and present dangers.

Page 42: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

The Power of Surveillance: London Cholera Outbreak 1854

John Snow

1813-1858

•First really powerful example of surveillance affecting action •John Snow, physician

•Studying the theory that bacteria caused disease •Snow believed cholera in water supply •His samples didn’t actually show it under microscope •BUT– what he did was to plot where the cases were.

•Disease cases clustered in Soho •This is his original map. •Can’t see too well, but the little bars indicate number of cases by residence.

Page 43: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

The Power of Surveillance: London Cholera Outbreak 1854

•Here’s a magnified part of the map – you can see how cases cluster •Snow identified the Broad Street pump as possible source of cholera contamination.

•Took handle off pump, epidemic ended •On the left you see memorial to Snow– location of pump on Broad Street •Started the sanitarian movement in Britain

•Political uproar, lots of false starts •City put the handle back on the pump after the epidemic was over. •But we got there eventually

Page 44: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

Address: 39, Broadwick St, London, W1F

Tel: 08721 077 077

Tubes: Oxford Circus, Piccadilly Circus

Brewery: Samuel Smith’s

You can visit the John Snow pub at 39 Broadwick Street in London, right across from the memorial.

Page 45: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

Geographic Information Systems (GIS)Obesity, Poverty and Food Access

Source: Rutgers Institute for Health Policy, 2010

•We’re now using surveillance for many other purposes. •A new tool for this is computer technology called Geographic Information Systems, or GIS •A pressing issue is obesity, which is overtaking smoking as the leading preventable cause of death

•Poor people and minorities affected more than others •Both diet and physical activity are involved •We know that poor people have less access to healthy food •So we wanted to know whether we could plan for the introduction of new food outlets with healthier foods

•What you see was produced by Punam Ohri-Vachaspati, a visiting fellow at RWJF in Princeton. •Map of Newark, New Jersey

•Very poor city •On the left, you can see the percentage of households in poverty by location

•The darkest areas have more than 50% of households below poverty line •The green dots on the left are the location of food markets •On the right is a measure of the density of supermarkets in those neighborhoods •You can see that supermarket density is highest in the more affluent area to the east.

Page 46: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

GIS: Convenience Stores, Junk Food & Poverty

Source: Rutgers Institute for Health Policy, 2010

•Convenience stores are also implicated in this problem. •They often have mostly junk food •You can see on the right how the density of convenience stores crosses all boundaries •BUT – the areas that have less access to supermarkets have LOTS of access to junk food •And they are the poorest areas in a poor city.

Page 47: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

GIS and Advocacy:

Food Access and

Diet-Related Deaths in Chicago

•This kind of approach is now being used for advocacy. •Here you see a map of Chicago produced by the Food Trust •The areas in red are those that have

•Low sales from supermarkets •Low income AND •High rates of death from diet-related causes:

•Heart attack •Stroke •Diabetes

•The Food Trust works nationally to stimulate building of new supermarkets in low income areas •In Philadelphia, over 30 supermarkets now in operation •Only 1 closed so far

•Could happen to any business •This work was also produced with support from Robert Wood Johnson Foundation

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Banal Technologies & Health

•What we need to keep in mind through all this is that even banal technology affects our health •By relying so much on the car, we’ve engineered physical activity out of our lives •On the right you see evidence that active people live longer, from the Journal of the American Medical Association •On the left are estimates of health problems from our overuse of the car.

•Notice that heart attack and stroke are the tallest bar •That’s obesity related, as are the cancer deaths.

Page 49: Laura C. Leviton Special Advisor for Evaluation The Robert ... College Winter 20… · •Picture of USDA’s food pyramid, showing advice on portions of the different food groups

Public Participation in GIS:Portland’s

most walkable neighborhoods

Bus shelter, UK

•Technology is helping us come to grips with this problem •One problem is that a lot of neighborhoods are just not good for walking and biking •On the left you see a GIS map of the most walkable neighborhoods in Portland

•Green is walkable, like Southeast •Red is car-dependent, like the West Hills

•This is actually an interactive map on the web– you can click on your neighborhood to find out more

•The public participated in collecting the information •Then put together with GIS technology

•The idea is that people will choose where to live, advocate for change in their neighborhoods •On the right you see a sign from a bus shelter in Britain, which also has this problem

•It reads, What are you waiting for? •Try walking instead

Walkability/bikability references: http://www.walktoschool-usa.org/eventideas/checklists.cfm Portland map: http://www.walkscore.com/rankings/Portland