Iraq: A country in Turmoil

The elimination of ISIS and implementation of a new government model

Outline

● History of Iraq

● Islam History

● Demographics of Iraq

● Iraq's Current Gov't

● SWOT Analysis

● Arab Spring

● ISIS Crisis

● BRICS solution

History of Iraq

● Territory considered birthplace of civilization

● 1918: Ottoman Empire falls

● 1920: British Protectorate forms Iraq

● 1921: Monarchy established

● 1922: Iraq gains Independence

● 1958: Monarchy overthrown, Republic of Iraq forms

● 1968: Ba'ath party comes to power (Hussein gains influence)

● 1979: Hussein becomes president officially

● 2003: Saddam Hussein thrown out of power

● 2007: US surge pushes out insurgents and militias from cities

● 2008: Government of Iraq assumed full sovereignty with some foreign troops staying with agreement of the government

Iraq's Three Kings

Faisal I, Ghazi I, Faisal II

Saddam Hussein and some of his crimes

Fall of Saddam Hussein

Presidencies following Hussein

Ghazi Masha Aji al-Yawer, Jalal Talabani, Fuad Masum

Current

Recent Prime Ministers of Iraq

● Nouri al-Maliki (2006-14), Haider al-Abadi (current)

History of Islam in Iraq Iraq is conquered and becomes part of the Islamic

caliphate between 632-661

ISIS wants a return to a “purist” Islamic Caliphate, even more powerful than the last.

Demographics of Iraq

● 99% Muslim. Shia majority of ~65% to ~37% Sunni (exempting recent ISIS interference)

● 80% Arab, 15% Kurd, 5% other (mostly Turkoman & Assyrian.

● Languages: Arabic, Kurdish, Turkmen, and Assyrian in majority populations.

● Borders: Iran,Turkey, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, and 36 miles of the Gulf

● Capital: Baghdad

● Population of approximately 32 million.

● 18 provinces, 3 under Kurdish Regional Government

Iraq's Government: A federal constitutional democracy

● Head of State: President (elected)

● Head of Government: Prime Minister drawn from the elected Council of Representatives (325)– 7 seats reserved for Iraqis living outside of the country

– 8 seats reserved for Iraqi minorities.

– 4 year terms

S W O T

● Strengths: Oil, Natural gas, and Sulfur resources. High literacy rate

● Weaknesses: Racial and religious conflicts. Weak government. Weaker economy

● Opportunities: (Domestic) Unify racial and religious sects with elimination of ISIS. Unite country under a balanced government with strong foreign policy and a military. (Internationally) Continue and increase trade with West and ME.

● Threats: ISIS is and will continue to take advantage of Iraq's Weaknesses. Is taking some Strengths (oil reserves).

Arab Spring's influence on Iraq

● Tunisia 2011 is known as the start of the Arab Spring

● Debate if Iraq was the real start of Arab Spring– Kanan Makiya of nytimes.com 4/6/13

● Overthrow of Saddam Hussein 03' was met with cheers

● Iraq was ready for a new government

● Protests erupted after 03' across the middle east

– March in Lebanon in '05.

● Another argument is Iraq felt the

echo effects of Arab Spring– 2013 protest in Fallujah

ISIS: Islamic State of Iraq and Syria

ISIS name is temporary. ISIS/ISIL group wants to expand and return to the Islamic Caliphate that covered all of the M.E.

– Capture of Iraqi cities puts border countries in greater threat and gives Iraq access to the Persian Gulf

200 Iraqi Sunni Tribesmen have been executed as of 11/3/14

– 600 ISIS prisoners have been executed 10/30/14

– Purist Islamic ideology is strict and has caused violence between Muslims to increase

Take over oil fields as source of income

– Saudi's threatened. Other states threatened.

– All of Iraq's supply is deeply threatened.

ISIS Origins

● Became an insurgency out of Saddam Hussein's fall out of power

● Stronghold of Al-Qaeda

● Gained momentum and support in Syria war.

● Currently has support, financially and voluntarily by individuals across the world.

● Is also gaining from oil sells

ISIS territory

● Sunni residents in the Anbar Providence became radicalized and ISIS invasions began

● ISIS has captured the Anbar Province and portions of North and Central Iraq

● Radicalized Sunnis are appearing in multiple regions in the Midde East, Europe, and even the US.

Oil Reserves in Iraq

Iraqi Army

● Shia soldiers present

ISIS Elimination

● Coalition ties should not be severed

● Keep and support coalition states in ME– Through trade

– Military training

● Take on a China/Brics Model to shift the country to a more controlled economy. – Increase manufacturing

– Maintain order

– Train students in manufacturing. Shift from religious focus in schools.

Introduction of BRICS model in Iraq

● Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa.– Bolded: have been considered a threat to the US

● Economically and Ideologically

● Russian Imperial Attitudes and Iraq

● China annexation of cities. Spread in Africa

● Anti-west sentiment is an unofficial part of BRICS model– New plan for Iraq that falls into Sharia model

– Common enemy in the West allows tolerance of other Muslims

● New trade methods may bring Iraq out of developing nation status– Fast Growing Economies: Brazil, India, South Africa

About BRICS model

● Allows more authoritarian, sovereign government rule

● State Capitalism: Nationalizes big business/largest export ex) Gazprom

● Limits importation from within BRICS nation.

● Detrimental to US trade relations. US imports, but cannot export to these countries– Iraq needs to lose its reliance on the US.

Why a BRICS model for Iraq?

● Iraq has tried many systems that have all failed.

● Ideology

– Anti-West sentiment is still largely present

– Authoritative law and models are preferred under sharia

● Sharia law is in demand because of Sunni majority

● Sunni should rule the majority. Shia rule causes tension and weakness.

– Iraq is lacking resources to stand alone and will need assistance in the future to continue oil trade

● Economy– Iraq has potential to become a great manufacturing power.

Iraq's State Capitalism

● Authoritative government under BRICS could keep Iraq a democracy if developed properly.

● New government should be set up with more Sunni seats to balance out a tense religious environment. Protection of minorities are a must.

● State funds should help support the economy and manufacturing plants in Iraq

Iraq Oil Trade

Works Cited

● http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/the-shia-are-in-power-in-iraq--but-not-in-control-8523280.html

● http://www.cbsnews.com/news/death-toll-from-isis-public-executions-of-iraqi-sunni-tribesmen-passes-200/

● http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-what-its-like-living-under-isis-rule-in-fallujah-iraq-2014-11

● http://energyinasiablog.com/2014/08/isis-impact-on-iraqs-oil-industry/

● http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/women-children-36-sunni-tribesman-killed-isis-iraqi-officials-article-1.1997340

● http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/07/opinion/sunday/the-arab-spring-started-in-iraq.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

● https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/iz.html

● http://www.bitsofnews.com/content/view/4037/42/

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