Innova&ngtheFutureTenMajorOpportunityAreasforInnova5on16November2016 Theworld’sleadingopenforesightprogram

FutureAgendaTheFutureAgendaistheworld’slargestopenforesightprogram.

Runasaglobaldialogueacrossallcon5nents,itaccessesmul5pleviewsofthenextdecadesowecanallbebeIerinformedandsofocusonands5mulateinnova5on.

TenInnova&onOpportuni&esOverthepastyearwehavesharedinsightsacrossmanycountriesandsectorsandhave

iden5fiedanddiscussedthebiggestinnova5onopportuni5esforthenextdecade.Herearethetop10basedonneedandpoten5alimpact.

Selec&onCriteriaWehavechosenthoseareasthatmeetthreecriteria:

beingglobal/mul5regionalinimpact,s5llrequiringsignificantprogressandhavingthepoten5altocreatenewvalue.

GlobalorMul&Regional

Impact

Poten&altoCreateNew

Value

S&llRequireSignificantProgress

ReducingAirPollu&onRisingairpollu5oninmanyci5esisalreadykillingpeople.Itwillbecome

avisiblecatalystforchangingmind-setsandpoliciesacrosshealth,energy,transporta5onandurbandesign.

ReducingAirPollu&onAirpollu5oncurrentlycauses5.5mprematuredeathseachyear.SuchisthescaleoftheproblemthattheOECDbelievesitwillbecomethebiggestcauseofpremature

death.Itisalreadyafocusfor5ghterregula5onandbehaviourchange.

AlreadyUnderway:•  Regula5ontoreduceemissions

especiallyfromdieselvehicles.•  Improvedmonitoringofairquality

andsharingofdataonkeymetrics.•  Moreci5esmoreenforcinglow/

zeroemissionzones.•  Policychangesonindustrialpollu5on

andenergyuseinChinaandIndia.•  Educa5onprogrammesonair

pollu5onandrisktohealth.•  Awarenessoflinkagetosmokingand

domes5ccookingfuelslikekerosene.

FutureInnova&onOpportuni&es:•  Organisa5onsgloballywillcome

underincreasingpressuretoplaytheirpartinreducingairpollu5on.

•  Integra5onofscrubbingtechnologieswithinven5la5onsystemsinbuildings/externalenvironments.

SomeEarlyExamples:NaturalAirPurifica5onExternalCleaningTowerMoreInforma&on:AirQuality(FutureAgenda)

ProvidingBasicSanita&onPoorsanita5oncon5nuestoimpactpublichealthandrestrictsocialprogress,

par5cularlyforwomen.Governmentsanddonororganisa5onspriori5semeasurement,educa5onandinnova5oninabidtodrivechange.

ProvidingBasicSanita&onFortypercentoftheworld’spopula5on,2.5bnpeople,s5llprac5ceopendefeca5onorlackadequatesanita5onfacili5es,andtheconsequences

canbedevasta5ngforhumanhealthaswellastheenvironment.

AlreadyUnderway:•  Investmentininfrastructuretaking

placeacrossSEAsiaandAfrica•  Shi]ingculturala^tudesinkey

regionstowardssanita5on•  UN/WorldBanksupportforIndia’s

UniversalSanita5onIni5a5ves•  Increasedglobalawarenessof

challengeas6thUNSDG•  Overcomingtoiletaccessdeficiency

forgirlsinschools•  Changingpoli5calcacheofsanita5on

policyinmul5plecountries

FutureInnova&onOpportuni&es:•  Developingnon-seweredsanita5on

approachesandnewdeliverymodels•  Developingtechnologiesthatleadto

radicalimprovementsinsanita5oninthedevelopingworld.

SomeEarlyExamples:SEISustainableSanita5onIni5a5veGatesFounda5on’sSanita5onprogramFecalsludgeby-productsatscaleMoreInforma&on:BasicSanita5on(FutureAgenda)

MinimisingFoodWaste30-50%ofourfoodiswastedeitherinthesupplychainorinconsump5onandcouldfeedanother3billion.Op5misingdistribu5onandstorageindevelopingcountriesandenablingbeIerconsumerinforma5oninotherscouldsolvethis.

MinimisingFoodWasteBy2050theworldwillneed60%morecalorieseverydaytofeed9bnpeople.

Withconstraintsonlandsupply,moreefficientproduc5oncanonlypartlymeetthisdemandandhencethegrowingfocusonmimimisingfoodwaste.

AlreadyUnderway:•  Increasedrefrigera5onofsupply

chainsindevelopingcountries•  FAOinvestmentinnewfoodstorage

infrastructuresystems•  Improvedawarenessofsellby/use

beforedatesonsupermarketfoods•  Smart,ac5veandintelligent

packagingandlabeling•  Foodsharingandreuseprogrammes

ac5ngwithfoodsafetyguidelines•  Anaerobicdiges5onrepurposing

foodasenergyandagriculturalproducts

FutureInnova&onOpportuni&es:•  Cellularagriculturetoreproduce

healthyfoodinthelab•  Safecircularfoodsupply/resupply

systemsandnetworksincludingshopsandrestaurants

SomeEarlyExamples:CellularAgricultureCopiaFoodRecoveryHierarchyMoreInforma&on:FoodWaste(FutureAgenda)

DeliveringAffordableHealthcareTheescala5ngcostofhealthcareisfurtherstressedbytheneedtosupporttheoldandthechronicallyill.Spending20%ofGDPonhealthcareisseenasunsustainablesoharddecisionsaretakenaroundbudgetsandpriori5es.

DeliveringAffordableHealthcareIntheWest80%ofhealthcarespendisassociatedwiththelast2yearsoflifebut70%oftheglobalpopula5oniswithoutaccesstodecenthealthcare.

Redesigninghealthcaresystemsforlowercostisthereforeacommonneed.

AlreadyUnderway:•  Investmentinmorepreventa5ve

healthcarebusinessmodels•  Bespokedrugsandpersonalised

medicinesbasedongenomics•  Introduc5onofmicro-health

insuranceinkeyregions•  Adop5onanddevelopmentof

pa5entco-paysystems•  Genetherapyandgeneedi5ngto

avoidfuturediseasedevelopment•  Developmentofrobo5ccarersand

beIerendoflifeprovision

FutureInnova&onOpportuni&es:•  Newprotocolstokeeppa5entsout

ofhospitalsun5laslateaspossible.•  Pa5ent-centricbusinessmodelsthat

deliverqualitycareatlowercostsSomeEarlyExamples:CarermarketplacesNarayanaHealthcareGrandAidesMoreInforma&on:CareintheCommunity(FutureAgenda)AffordableHealthcare(FutureAgenda)

Educa&onRevolu&onBroaderaccesstoimprovededuca5onactsasamajorcatalystfor

empowerment,sustainedeconomicgrowth,overcominginequalityandreducingconflict.Weneedaneduca5onsystemfitforthedigitalrevolu5on.

Educa&onRevolu&on Althoughtechnologycanhelpimproveeduca5onitisnotasilverbulletalone.Therealityforthenextdecadewillprobablybeahybridofface-to-faceandonline

learningwheredigitalconnec5vityenableadifferentapproachtoteaching.

AlreadyUnderway:•  Wideradop5onofMOOCS(Massive

onlineopencourses)globally•  Developingofcon5nuouslearning

plaiormsbeyondschoolyears.•  Commonstandardsbeingagreed

acrossdifferentschools/systems.•  Renewedindustryleadershipinco-

designingeduca5onformats•  Significantprivatesectorinvestment

inneweduca5onalplaiorms•  Inclusiveandqualityeduca5onforall

andlifelonglearningaUNSDG

FutureInnova&onOpportuni&es:•  Decouplingdependencyonfully

trainedteachersandsoenablinghigherstudentra5os.

•  Developingcrediblesystemsthatparentswillbewillingtoallowchildrentofollow.

SomeEarlyExamples:Teachersascoaches/mentorsKahnAcademyMoreInforma&on:Educa5onRevolu5on(FutureAgenda)

TrueValueofCleanWaterAswaterstressimpacts40%oftheworld,wewillhavetopaythetruevalueforthiskeyresource.Inamorewater-consciousworld,thecostofwaterisrecognised,fullwaterfootprintsaremeasuredandcompaniessignificantlyreduceconsump5on.

TrueValueofCleanWaterWhilethetotalvolumeofwaterontheplanetremainsconstant,increasing

demanddrivesthevalueofcleanwaterup.Alreadypricedat$15perlitreinsomeareas,moreinvestmentinpreserving/cleaningpotablewaterisapriorityformany.

AlreadyUnderway:•  BeIermanagingwatersupply/

demandinareasofwaterstress•  Usinglesswaterpercapitaand

reducingproducts’waterfootprints•  Lowercostdesalina5oninvestment

inkeyloca5onslikeSingapore•  Applica5onofdataanaly5csto

measure/createsmartwatergrids•  Interna5onalcollabora5ononshared

watercatchmentprogrammes•  Growingawarenessofwatersecurity

forci5esalongsidefoodandenergy

FutureInnova&onOpportuni&es:•  Takingchemicalpollutants-

especiallyhydrocarbons-outofwaterusedbyindustry

•  Lowenergydesalina5ontechnologiestoimproveaccessbeyondtherichestna5ons

SomeEarlyExamples:HyfluxTakaduMoreInforma&on:FullCost(FutureAgenda)

Suppor&ngWorkingLongerPeoplearehavingtoworkforlongertosupportlongerre5rements.

Flexibleworkingprac5cesandpoliciesareemerging,butsomeemployerscon5nuetoremainambivalentaboutolderworkers.

Suppor&ngWorkingLongerAsre5rementfor30yearsbasedonworkingfor40becomesimpossible,

moreorgnsai5onsandnetworksseektoretainexperiencedemployeeswithinthemixthroughmoreflexibleapproachestoworkandvaluecrea5on

AlreadyUnderway:•  Shi]sinofficialre5rementagesfor

statepensionsinseveralcountries•  Growthofgig-economyproviding

newplaiormsforolderworkers•  Supportforthirdcareertrainingand

con5nuouslearningprogrammes•  Wideruseofco-workingspacesand

hubsinmanyci5es•  Businesscrea5onbyolderadults

increased60%from1996to2012•  Subsidiesofupto75%foremploying

olderworkersinSweden

FutureInnova&onOpportuni&es:•  Marketplacesforskilledknowledge

workersextendintowidereconomy•  VCandbroadersocialinvestment

vehiclesforolderentrepreneursSomeEarlyExamples:BMWYourEncore.comAgewellGlobalMoreInforma&on:WorkingLonger(FutureAgenda)Organisa5on3.0(FutureAgenda)Agelessness(FutureAgenda)

BuildingDataMarketplacesDataisacurrency,ithasavalueandaprice,andthereforerequiresamarketplace.Anecosystemfortradingdataisemergingandanything

thatisinforma5onisrepresentedinanewdatamarketplace.

BuildingDataMarketplacesAsmanyseektocaptureasmuchdataaspossible,mostorganisa5onslack

ac5onablemethodstotapinto,mone5ze,andstrategicallyexploitthisnewvalue.Notonlyiscoredatavalueunclearbutaccessvs.ownershipisconfusingformany.

AlreadyUnderway:•  Bilateraltradingofdatabetween

brandsandtechnologyplaiorms•  Establishednormsforselling

aggregatedcustomerdata•  Localiseddatamarketplaceswithin

specificindustriesandregions•  Growthinreal-5meanaly5csandthe

enablingofwiderdynamicpricing•  Plaiormstoexertcontrolonand

createvaluefromindividualiden5ty•  Strengtheninginterna5onal

frameworksonpersonalprivacy

FutureInnova&onOpportuni&es:•  Crea5ngtheprotocolsthatcan

underpincredibleglobalplaiorms•  Trea5ngpersonaldataasaproduct

withinaprivacymarketplaceSomeEarlyExamples:DatacoupDigiMeMoreInforma&on:IncreasingValueofDataDataOwnership(FutureAgenda)Crea5nganIoTMarketplace(McKinsey)

Inves&nginNature’sCapitalIntheAnthropocene,humankindispresidingoverthe

Earth'ssixthmajorex5nc5on.Butasbiodiversitydeclines,naturebecomesincreasinglyvaluedandvaluable.

Inves&nginNature’sCapitalLeveragingprivatecapitalforconserva5ongrowsalongsidegovernment

investmentstohavegreaterimpact.Businessesstarttopaythetruecostoftheresourcestheyuseandsocompensatefortheirnega5veimpactonsociety.

AlreadyUnderway:•  Corporateenvironmental,socialand

governancebecomingmorefocused•  Triple-boIomlineaccoun5ng

frameworkalignedtocreatevalue•  3P(people,planet,profit)strong

footholdinTheNetherlands•  IntegratedRepor5ng(IIRC)approach

beingadoptedbyleadingcompanies•  NatureConservancygrowingin

influenceinUSandinterna5onally•  Impactsofclimatechangeaccepted

andimplica5onsbeingwidelyshared

FutureInnova&onOpportuni&es:•  Fundsfocusedonimpactinvestment

innature•  Crea5onofplaiormsthataid

transparencyoncorporateac5vi5es.SomeEarlyExamples:NaturevestNetPosi5veProjectTrucostMoreInforma&on:Nature’sCapital(FutureAgenda)FullCost(FutureAgenda)ESG(Wikipedia)

GovernanceofMachinesAutoma5onspreadsbeyondtradingandmanagingsystemicrisk.Asweapproachtechnologysingularity,autonomousrobotsand

smarteralgorithmsmakeethicaljudgmentsthatimpactlifeordeath.

GovernanceofMachinesAsAIanddeeplearningbecomemoreembeddedintheworld,concernisgrowingaboutwhoisaccountableforthedecisionsmade.Astechnologyracesaheadwhosetstherulesisbecomingapriorityconcernformany.

AlreadyUnderway:•  Widespreadembracingofthebig

datatrendacrossmanysectors•  Notablear5ficialintelligencemoves

towardssingularity•  Technologyfirmsinvestmentsin

machinelearning/deeplearning•  AItakingoverkeymiddleclassjobs

suchaslawyersandaccountants•  EricSchmidtbelievestheTuringtest

willbepassedin2018•  AIexpertscalledforautonomous

dronedevelopmenttostop

FutureInnova&onOpportuni&es:•  Societyneedstodevelopwaysof

dealingwiththeethicsofrobo5cs•  Collabora5onbetweenengineers,

ethicists,lawyersandpolicymakersSomeEarlyExamples:Self-determiningmachinesNaoRobotMITMoralMachineMoreInforma&on:EthicalMachines(FutureAgenda)Threelawsofrobo5cs(Asimov)

SustainableDevelopmentGoalsSevenofthesealignstronglywiththeUNSustainableDevelopmentGoalsandhighlightareasthathavebeenrecognisedassignificantforsome5mebutwhicharealsogoingtobeevermoreimportanttoaddressinthefuture

JoinUsinMovingThingsForwardWearenowhelpingtochoreographseveralpartnershipstotakeaselec5onofthese

top10opportunityareasforward.Todothisweneedyourinputandsupport.Letusknowwhicharemostimportantandwhyandhowyoumaywanttohelp.

MoreInforma&onandInsights

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FutureAgendainNumbersThefirstFutureAgendaprogrammeengagedawiderangeofviewsin25countries.FutureAgenda2.0doubledtheface-to-faceinterac5on

andsignificantlyraisedonlinesharing,debateanddiscussion.

FutureAgenda1.01HOST16TOPICS25COUNTRIES50WORKSHOPS1500ORGANISATIONS

FutureAgenda2.050HOSTS24TOPICS35COUNTRIES120WORKSHOPS5000ORGANISATIONS

FutureAgenda2.0TopicsTherecentFutureAgendaprogramtookplaceduring2015

andaddressed24keytopicsvia120eventsin45ci5esin35countriesacross5con5nents–allconductedinpartnershipwith50corehosts.

Ci5es

Educa5on

Learning

Transport

Collabora5on

Energy

Loyalty

Travel

Company

Faith

Payments

Water

Connec5vity

Food

Privacy

Wealth

Currency

Government

Resources

Work

Ageing

Data

Health

Trade

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