Transcript
Page 1: Drina Nexus Assessment CH5: Co-optimizing Flow …...1.Limitedcooperationintheoperationof hydropower dams. 2.Uncertainty on the impacts of hydropower expansion on the flowregimeanddownstreamuses

Prof. Mark HowellsYoussef Almulla, Francesco Gardumi and Eunice Ramos

Division of Energy Systems Analysis - KTH

Drina Nexus AssessmentCH5: Co-optimizing Flow regulation

Page 2: Drina Nexus Assessment CH5: Co-optimizing Flow …...1.Limitedcooperationintheoperationof hydropower dams. 2.Uncertainty on the impacts of hydropower expansion on the flowregimeanddownstreamuses

1.Limited cooperation in the operation of hydropower dams.

2.Uncertainty on the impacts of hydropower expansion on theflow regime and downstream uses.

3.Environmental flow regulation and impacts on electricityproduction.

4.Energy poverty in the DRB.

5.Lack of investments in non-hydro renewable energy sources.

6.Slow implementation of energy efficiency policies.

7. Un-utilized Electricity Export potential.

KEY CHALLENGES

Page 3: Drina Nexus Assessment CH5: Co-optimizing Flow …...1.Limitedcooperationintheoperationof hydropower dams. 2.Uncertainty on the impacts of hydropower expansion on the flowregimeanddownstreamuses

Suggested Policy Direction

Improving cooperation between the DRB countries on flow regulation

SUGGESTED SOLUTIONS

Page 4: Drina Nexus Assessment CH5: Co-optimizing Flow …...1.Limitedcooperationintheoperationof hydropower dams. 2.Uncertainty on the impacts of hydropower expansion on the flowregimeanddownstreamuses

SUGGESTED SOLUTIONS

Suggested Policy Packages:

1.Coordination in the operation of the hydropower plants in the DRB.

2.Cooperation to Mitigate the risk againstFloods.

3.Environmental flow considerations.

4.Assessment of new hydro power plantsprojects.

5.Motivating the implementation of EnergyEfficiency measures.

Page 5: Drina Nexus Assessment CH5: Co-optimizing Flow …...1.Limitedcooperationintheoperationof hydropower dams. 2.Uncertainty on the impacts of hydropower expansion on the flowregimeanddownstreamuses

Suggested solutions/actions:

1. Better scheduling of hydro power plants operation.

2. Formal agreement on flow regulation.

3. Improve data sharing and intersectoral communication.

4. Unified and modern hydro-meteorological forecasting system.

5. Development and continuously updating forecasting models.

1. COORDINATION IN THE OPERATION OF HYDRO POWER PLANTS

Page 6: Drina Nexus Assessment CH5: Co-optimizing Flow …...1.Limitedcooperationintheoperationof hydropower dams. 2.Uncertainty on the impacts of hydropower expansion on the flowregimeanddownstreamuses

Developing multi-country model of the three riparian countries(BA, ME and RS) with the focus on Drina river basin, using theOpen Source energy MOdeling SYStem (OSeMOSYS).

Quantification of the benefits of

(Co-)optimizing flow regulation

Energy System

Hydrological

System

HPP

Approach

Focus:

Cost optimal electricity generation to meet the demand.

Soft linking of water flow in electricity generation system.

Drina Water – Energy Model (DWEM):

Page 7: Drina Nexus Assessment CH5: Co-optimizing Flow …...1.Limitedcooperationintheoperationof hydropower dams. 2.Uncertainty on the impacts of hydropower expansion on the flowregimeanddownstreamuses

SCENARIO DESCRIPTION

Base scenario (BASE): representing the noncooperative operation of HPPs in DRB. UpstreamHPPs are operated on a single unit base and thosedownstream are responding to their best.

Cooperative scenario (COP): representing acooperative planning and operation of all thehydro power plants in the basin. Increased Trade (COP_TRD): explores theopportunities of improving interconnections andtrade of electricity.

Energy efficiency (COP_EE): investigates the impactof implementing energy efficiency measures onthe electricity generation mix.

Page 8: Drina Nexus Assessment CH5: Co-optimizing Flow …...1.Limitedcooperationintheoperationof hydropower dams. 2.Uncertainty on the impacts of hydropower expansion on the flowregimeanddownstreamuses

GAINS IN ELECTRICITY GENERATION (COP – BASE)

• Compare the Cooperative operation with non-cooperative scenario.

• Better cooperation allow for better water availability in the river.

• Reduce thermal generation and reduce the overall system cost.

Page 9: Drina Nexus Assessment CH5: Co-optimizing Flow …...1.Limitedcooperationintheoperationof hydropower dams. 2.Uncertainty on the impacts of hydropower expansion on the flowregimeanddownstreamuses

Suggested solutions/actions:

1. Improve cooperation through better emergency preparedness and response planning.

2. Properly operating hydro-meteorological monitoring and the early warning systems.

3. Comprehensive approach that covers: infrastructure, software, modeling tools and building human capacity.

2. COOPERATION TO MITIGATE THE RISK AGAINST FLOODS

Page 10: Drina Nexus Assessment CH5: Co-optimizing Flow …...1.Limitedcooperationintheoperationof hydropower dams. 2.Uncertainty on the impacts of hydropower expansion on the flowregimeanddownstreamuses

Suggested solutions/actions:

1. Harmonise and enforce environmental flow legislation.

2. Effective monitoring of environmental flow consideration at different phases of projects.

3. Apply ICPDR guiding principles in the development of future hydropower projects and upgrading of existing ones.

3. ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW CONSIDERATIONS

Page 11: Drina Nexus Assessment CH5: Co-optimizing Flow …...1.Limitedcooperationintheoperationof hydropower dams. 2.Uncertainty on the impacts of hydropower expansion on the flowregimeanddownstreamuses

Suggested solutions/actions:

1. Update estimates of hydropower potential in the DRB.

2. Revisit feasibility studies of new power plants with the current economic outlook.

3. Take advantage of the existing platforms to plan and coordinate future developments.

4. ASSESSMENT OF NEW HYDRO POWER PLANTS PROJECTS

Page 12: Drina Nexus Assessment CH5: Co-optimizing Flow …...1.Limitedcooperationintheoperationof hydropower dams. 2.Uncertainty on the impacts of hydropower expansion on the flowregimeanddownstreamuses

Suggested solutions/actions:

1. Speed up transposition of relevantEnergy Community-energy efficiencylegislation.

2. Take advantage of the EnergyCommunity - Energy Efficiency TaskForce as a platform to discuss• Implementation of the Energy Efficiency Action

Plans.

• Prospects for increased financing for the energyefficiency measures implementation

5. MOTIVATING THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY MEASURES

Page 13: Drina Nexus Assessment CH5: Co-optimizing Flow …...1.Limitedcooperationintheoperationof hydropower dams. 2.Uncertainty on the impacts of hydropower expansion on the flowregimeanddownstreamuses

SCENARIO DESCRIPTION

Base scenario (BASE): representing the noncooperative operation of HPPs in DRB. UpstreamHPPs are operated on a single unit base and thosedownstream are responding to their best.

Cooperative scenario (COP): representing acooperative planning and operation of all thehydro power plants in the basin. Increased Trade (COP_TRD): explores theopportunities of improving interconnections andtrade of electricity.

Energy efficiency (COP_EE): investigates the impactof implementing energy efficiency measures onthe electricity generation mix.

Page 14: Drina Nexus Assessment CH5: Co-optimizing Flow …...1.Limitedcooperationintheoperationof hydropower dams. 2.Uncertainty on the impacts of hydropower expansion on the flowregimeanddownstreamuses

ENERGY EFFICIENCY

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Key Model limitations and future work

• This indicative analysis can be further improved with:

• Site specific data related to (electricity generation, electricity trade and transmission losses and targets, water flow ..etc)

• Clear vision about future projects (hydro, non hydro RE and thermal)

• The model is electricity driven which means it operates the system to meet the specified demand tacking into account water availability. For more hydrological focused insights, detailed hydrological modelling required.

Page 17: Drina Nexus Assessment CH5: Co-optimizing Flow …...1.Limitedcooperationintheoperationof hydropower dams. 2.Uncertainty on the impacts of hydropower expansion on the flowregimeanddownstreamuses

Prof. Mark HowellsYoussef Almulla, Francesco Gardumi and Eunice Ramos

Division of Energy Systems Analysis - KTH

Drina Nexus AssessmentCH5: Co-optimizing Flow regulation

Page 18: Drina Nexus Assessment CH5: Co-optimizing Flow …...1.Limitedcooperationintheoperationof hydropower dams. 2.Uncertainty on the impacts of hydropower expansion on the flowregimeanddownstreamuses

Suggested Solutions

(5Is)

Institutions

Informationand

research

InstrumentsInfrastructure

International coordination

and cooperation

Page 19: Drina Nexus Assessment CH5: Co-optimizing Flow …...1.Limitedcooperationintheoperationof hydropower dams. 2.Uncertainty on the impacts of hydropower expansion on the flowregimeanddownstreamuses

Suggested Policy Direction

Improving cooperation between the DRBcountries on flow regulation in the operationof hydro power plants, mitigation risks againstfloods, reducing the stress on hydro andthermal generation through theimplementation of energy efficiency measuresand non-hydro renewables.

SUGGESTED SOLUTIONS

Page 20: Drina Nexus Assessment CH5: Co-optimizing Flow …...1.Limitedcooperationintheoperationof hydropower dams. 2.Uncertainty on the impacts of hydropower expansion on the flowregimeanddownstreamuses

GAINS IN ELECTRICITY GENERATION (COP – BASE)

PIVA(880 MCM)

Uvac(213 MCM)

Bajina Basta(218 MCM)

Visegrad(161 MCM)

Kokin Brod(250 MCM)

Potpec(27.5 MCM)

PIVA

RIVERLIM RIVER

UVAC

RIVER

DRINA RIVER

Bistrica(7.6 MCM)

Zvornik (89 MCM)

Page 21: Drina Nexus Assessment CH5: Co-optimizing Flow …...1.Limitedcooperationintheoperationof hydropower dams. 2.Uncertainty on the impacts of hydropower expansion on the flowregimeanddownstreamuses

EXTENDED TRADE SCENARIO (COP_TRD)

Page 22: Drina Nexus Assessment CH5: Co-optimizing Flow …...1.Limitedcooperationintheoperationof hydropower dams. 2.Uncertainty on the impacts of hydropower expansion on the flowregimeanddownstreamuses

EXTENDED TRADE SCENARIO (COP_TRD)

Page 23: Drina Nexus Assessment CH5: Co-optimizing Flow …...1.Limitedcooperationintheoperationof hydropower dams. 2.Uncertainty on the impacts of hydropower expansion on the flowregimeanddownstreamuses

HOW WILL THE SYSTEM BENEFIT FROM ENERGY

EFFICIENCY MEASURES?

Page 24: Drina Nexus Assessment CH5: Co-optimizing Flow …...1.Limitedcooperationintheoperationof hydropower dams. 2.Uncertainty on the impacts of hydropower expansion on the flowregimeanddownstreamuses

Model limitations and future work

• This indicative analysis can be further improved with:

• Validation of generation technologies list (operating and planned infrastructure, investment costs, variable & fixed costs, efficiency of power plants);

• Cross-border transfer capacities (including trade agreements, operating and planned infrastructure);

• Consolidated data on electricity demand (yearly and daily);

• Fuel prices for electricity generation;

• Transmission and distribution losses and updated/validation of targets;

• Non-hydro renewable energy targets after 2020;

• Updating the energy efficiency target after 2020.