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COMPANY RESEARCH HEDGE EQUITIES CRUDE OIL REPORT

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HEDGE COMMODITIES

RESEARCH REPORT

CRUDE OIL

2011


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Contents Crude oil ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 2

Important Facts & Figures: ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 3

Top oil producing countries ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 4

Top oil consuming countries ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 4

Crude Database ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5

World’s biggest oil reserves ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 6

Fundamental Factors affecting crude oil prices ....................................................................................................................................................... 7

United States ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 8

China ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 9

India ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 10

Strategic petroleum reserves ................................................................................................................................................................................... 11

Refining sector in India ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 12

Japan ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 13

Important Checkpoints of Sea route for oil trade ................................................................................................................................................ 14

Crude Outlook..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 15

Analyst notes & updates ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 15


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Crude oil

Oil plays an important role in the economic activity of any country. Crude oil is a liquid found in natural underground reservoirs and

is burned to create energy. Crude oil and it’s by products are used as raw materials or input in various manufacturing industries and

the products obtained are petrol, Liquid petroleum gas, naptha, kerosene, gas oil and fuel oil. Crude oil are classified according to

API gravity which is American Petroleum Institute and it has mentioned the gravity level a measure of heavy or light a petroleum

liquid when compared to water. If the oil has higher API gravity it is considered as light and if less gravity level it is considered as

sour or heavy. The three primary benchmarks of oil in world trade are West Texas Intermediate (WTI), Brent Blend and Dubai &

Oman.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI): West Texas Intermediate

commonly called as WTI is used primarily in U.S. It is light (API

gravity) and sweet (low sulphur) making it ideal for producing

products like low sulphur gasoline and low sulphur diesel. Brent is

not light or sweet as WTI but still high grade crude and WTI

typically trades at higher premium than Brent.

Brent crude: Brent Crude is the largest of the many major

classifications of crude oil and is used to price two thirds of the

world’s internationally traded crude oil supplies. Brent crude is

sourced from North Sea (of Atlantic Ocean located between Great

Britain and Scandinavia). Petroleum production from Europe,

Africa and the Middle East flowing towards west tends to priced

relative to this Brent which acts as a benchmark.

Dubai Crude: Dubai Crude is a light sour crude oil extracted from Dubai. Dubai crude is used as a price benchmark because it is one

of few Persian Gulf crude oil. Dubai crude is generally used for pricing Persian Gulf crude oil exports to Asia. The Dubai benchmark is

also known as Fateh is used in the United Arab Emirates. For many years, most of the oil producers in the Middle East have taken

the monthly spot price average of Dubai & Oman as the bench mark for sales to the Far East.

Prices of Brent & WTI oil in US dollars quoted for a barrel


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Important Facts & Figures:

The world crude oil & liquid fuels consumption grew to 86.7 mbpd in

2010 surpassing the previous record of 86.3 mbpd set in 2007.

Energy Information administration (EIA) expects that the world liquid

fuels consumption to grow by 1.4mbpd in 2011 and in 2012 by 1.6

mbpd, resulting in total world consumption of 89.7 mbpd in 2012.

Countries outside the Organization for Economic cooperation and

development (OECD) such as China, Brazil and Middle East will drive

the growth in consumption of oil, along with OECD members US &

Canada in next two years, offsetting declines in Europe and Japan.

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Hedge Research

Non OPEC countries produced 33.67 mbpd as of 2009 and according

to EIA, Non OPEC crude oil and liquid fuels production will increase by

690,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2011 and 420,000 bpd in 2012,

mainly contributed by Brazil, Canada & China. Other Non OPEC areas

are expected to decline, including a decrease in European and North

Sea production of 130,000 bpd in 2011 and further decrease of

200,000 bpd in 2012.

EIA expects that OECD onshore inventories will decline in 2011

following the steep drop in floating storage that has already occurred.

Projected onshore OECD stocks fall by about 20 million barrels in 2011,

followed by an additional 54 million barrel decline in 2012. Days of

supply (total inventories divided by average daily consumption) drops

from a relatively high 58.1 days during the fourth quarter of 2010 to

57.0 days in the fourth quarter 2011, and 55.7 days of supply in the

fourth quarter 2012. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Hedge Research


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Top oil producing countries

Russia is the leading producer of oil pumping close to 10 million

barrels per day, with reserves close of 77.4 billion barrels.

The country with high amount of reserves is Saudi Arabia which

has 264.5 billion barrels and high reserve life.

It is forecasted that United States will consume all its reserves in

other 10 years.

In future United States may increase their dependence on Middle

East which has close to 56% of the world reserves unless US finds

other source of energy to meets its demand.


Top oil consuming countries

United States is the leading consumer of oil with 19.14

million barrels per day in 2010.

China is far behind US in consumption. But China has

doubled its consumption in the last decade and is expected to

increase its consumption aggressively in next two decades.

Japan has been the third largest importer of oil, as the

country lacks energy reserves & with many number

manufacturing company and oil refineries. Japan will continue

to import in order to meet its demand.

India is quite significantly increasing its oil imports as the

economy is growing at faster pace than the world economy. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Hedge Research


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Crude Database



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World’s biggest oil reserves

In Billion Barrels 2010 Daily Oil statistics in Barrels 2010

Country

Proven

Oil

reserves

Proportionate to

World Total

Total Oil

production in

Million Consumption

Exports

to U.S

1 Saudi Arabia 264.5 19.10% 10.00 2.81Mn 1.09m Dec (2010)

2 Venezuela 211.2 15.3% 2.47 765,000

3 Canada 175.2 12.94% 3.33 2.27mn 2.53m Dec (2010)

4 Iran 137.6 9.9% 4.24 1.79mn NIL Dec (2010)

5 Iraq 115 8.30% 2.46 636,000 336000 Dec (2010)

6 Kuwait 101.5 7.30% 2.50 413,000 125,000 Dec (2010)

7 UAE 97.8 7.10% 2.81 682,000 10,000 Dec (2010)

8 Russia 77.4 5.60% 10.27 3.19mn 756,000 Dec (2010)

9 Libya 46.4 3.4% 1.65 264,000 66000 Dec (2010)

10 Kazakhastan 39.8 2.9% 1.75 262,000 21000 Dec (2010)

11 Nigeria 37.2 2.70% 2.40 272,000 1.07 m Dec (2010)

12 U.S.A 30.9 2.2% 7.51 19.14mn - -

13 Qatar 25.9 1.9% 1.56 220,000 16000 Dec (2010)

14 China 14.8 1.10% 4.07 9.05mn 8000 Dec(2010)

15 Brazil 14.2 1.0% 2.13 2.60mn 295,000 Dec (2010)

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy & CNBC.com, Hedge Research


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Fundamental Factors affecting crude oil prices

Demand & Supply

OPEC is the major player which is controlling the prices of crude oil as crude oil production is done according to the demand

from the developing countries. The difference between the upstream and downstream largely determines the crude oil prices

& upstream countries are the major sellers of crude and their productions are valued by downstream demand. Downstream

countries are the major buyers of crude oil, and the cost of the oil is determined by the upstream supply.

Economic Factors

The economic growth of the global economy will increase the demand of crude oil and have influence on the oil prices. The

strong growth in China, India & demand from US are supporting crude oil prices. China’s growth remains the key to the

further trend of oil. If the growth continues in China, we can see the price of crude oil increasing. The macro economic data

related to global growth will have an impact on crude prices.

Geo Political Factors

Though the demand supply factor plays an important role, the geo political factors especially has high impact as the surplus

capacity is limited and the sudden increase in production can’t be done in case of emergency.

Inflation factors

Inflation rate is the other factor which can drive or suppress the demand of crude oil. If the inflation rate is very high, it can

dent the demand of the crude oil and slow down the economic growth of a country.

Natural calamities

Natural calamities have a heavy impact on crude oil prices. The oil refineries, transportation, exploration & production, all the

process are affected, which makes it harder to produce the oil in these kinds of circumstances.

Crude inventories

Crude oil are priced in terms of US dollars & crude inventory data is a metric closely watched & often has a bearing on crude

oil prices and other commodities.


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United States

U.S is the largest consumer of crude oil consuming 22% of world’s share and imports

11.68 mbpd in order to meet its demand. Though there are predictions that US will

exhaust its oil reserves in other 10 years, the demand is on increase.US have created (

SPR)- strategic Petroleum reserve an emergency fuel store maintained by the United

states Department of Energy. As per SPR website the inventory as on November 30,

2010 is 292.5 sweet million barrels & 434 million barrels of sour and total of 726.5

million barrels. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Hedge Research

Importance of Cushing trading hub:

Cushing is a major trading hub for WTI crude supply connecting the Gulf coast suppliers with northern consumers and a famous price

settlement point for WTI on the NYMEX.Cushing storage has a huge influence over the relative value of West Texas Intermediate

crude oil futures due to pipeline bottlenecks that can allow more oil to accumulate at the hub than can be easily shipped out to

refiners on the Gulf Coast

Companies with tank facilities at Cushing have been able to turn big profits

in recent years by storing crude and committing it for sale later, taking

advantage of the contango, when crude for near term delivery sells at a

discount to crude for later delivery. The spread between WTI and Brent oil

can occur because of Cushing factor and there are certain occasions where

the trend has appeared.

The anomaly occurred perhaps because of a temporary shortage of refining

capacity in 2007 and in Feb 2011, where most of analyst suggests the

reason for this anomaly is that Cushing has reached capacity, depressing the

oil market in North America which is centered on the WTI price. However,

Brent is moving up in reaction to civil unrest in Egypt and across the Middle

East. (Stockpiles at Cushing cannot be easily transported to the Gulf Coast

for export.) Total capacity was at 51.9 million barrels as of June 2010 at

Cushing. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Hedge Research

US Imports

Oil Production 7.51 mbpd

Oil Consumption 19.14mbpd

Oil Imports 11.68mbpd

Oil Exports 2.15mbpd


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China

China is the second largest oil consumer behind the United States. China emerged

from being a net oil exporter in the early 1990s and became the world’s third-

largest net importer of oil in 2006. China’s oil consumption growth accounted for

about a third of the world’s oil consumption growth.

China consumed an estimated 9.05 mbpd or nearly 10% of total world share in

2009. China’s net oil imports reached about 5.96 mbpd in 2010, making it the

second-largest net oil importer in the world behind the United States.EIA forecasts

that China’s oil consumption will continue to grow during 2011 with oil demand

reaching almost 9.6 mbpd in 2011.

China’s Strategic petroleum reserve & Expansion plan: China’s total SPR

capacity reached 178 million barrels by the end of the 2010 and the capacity will

increase to 500 million barrels once the third phase is completed. According to

China economic weekly, reported China’s total SPR capacity will increase to 621

million barrels by 2020.China plans to spend $36.71 billion - 44.05 billion under its

new five year plan to boost offshore oil production and aims to increase China’s

offshore oil production capacity by 50 million metric tons by 2015.

Oil imports: The Middle East remains the largest source of China’s crude oil

imports, although African countries also contribute a significant amount to China’s

crude oil imports. China imported 5.96 mbpd of crude oil in 2010, of which

approximately 50% came from the Middle East, 30 % from Africa, 5% from the

Asia-Pacific region, and 17% came from other countries.

In the first half of 2010, crude oil imports jumped to over 4.7 million barrels per

day or a 30 % year on year increase, resulting from China’s increasing demand.

The EIA expects China to import about 72 % of its crude oil by 2035, a significant

rise from the current 50 % according to IEA. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Hedge Research


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India

India is the world’s fifth largest energy consumer and continues to grow rapidly.

India generally imports Oman-Dubai sour grade crude, Brent dated sweet crude

and Bonny light crude. Oil accounts for about 31 % of India’s total energy

consumption and has approximately 5.8 billion barrels of proven oil reserves as of

January 2010, the second largest amount in Asia pacific region after China, which

represents just 0.5% of the world’s total, with Mumbai High being the biggest

producing field.

India’s crude oil reserves trend to be light and sweet and produce roughly 826

thousand bpd from over 3600 operating oil wells. India consumes 3.31 mbpd

(including the Indian refining company’s imports) and the combination of rising oil

consumption and relatively flat production has left India increasingly dependent on

imports to meet its petroleum demand. India is the fourth largest net importer of

oil in the world, importing nearly 3.59 million bpd and about 70 % of its oil needs

are imported from the Middle East, primarily from Saudi Arabia, followed by Iran.

The active Indian company abroad is ONGC videsh Ltd (OVC) conducts oil and

natural gas operations in 13 countries,

including Vietnam, Myanmar, Russia (Sakhalin Island), Iran, Iraq, Sudan, Brazil,

and Columbia. OVL has acquired 25% stake in Greater Nile petroleum operating

company (GNPOC) and the company in Sudan holds proved crude oil reserves of

more than one billion barrels with current production levels at roughly 300,000

barrels per day from 10 fields.

In addition to the upstream activities, the GNPOC companies operate a 935-mile

crude oil pipeline that pumps oil to Port Sudan. OVL also holds a 20 % stake in the

ExxonMobil-led consortium that operates the Sakhalin-I project in Russia which

holds recoverable crude oil reserves of 2.3 billion barrels. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Hedge research

Oil Production 826000

Oil Consumption 3.31mbpd

Oil Imports 3.59mbpd

Oil Exports 1.19mbpd

Oil reserves 9.0 Billion barrels


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Strategic petroleum reserves

To support India’s energy security, India is constructing a strategic petroleum reserve (SPR). The first storage facility

at Visakhapatnam will hold approximately 9.8 million bbls of crude (1.33 million tons) and is scheduled for completion by the end of

2011. The second facility at Mangalore will have a capacity of nearly 11 million bbls (1.5 million tons) and is scheduled for

completion by the end of 2012. The third facility of Padur, also scheduled to be completed by the end of 2012, will have a capacity

of nearly 18.3 million bbls (2.5 million ton).

Snapshot of previous rounds of New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP)

NELP -I NELP -II NELP - III NELP- IV NELP- V NELP-VI NELP-VII NELP VIII

No of blocks offered 48 25 27 24 20 55 57 70

No of blocks bid for 28 23 24 21 20 52 45 36

No of bids received 45 44 52 44 69 185 181 76

No of blocks awarded 25 23 23 21 20 52 44 31

Source: KPMG Oil & Gas overview 2010

The indian government inroduced the NELP in 1997-98, with an aim of encouraging private sector investment in theoil and gas sector

and providing a mutual benefits for both private and public players, thorugh competetive bidding and allocating blocks.Companies

are expected to bid on the following parametres:

1.The work programme to be undertaken

2.Percentage of value of annual production sought to be allocated towards cost recovery.

3. Profit petroleum share offered to the governemnt at various levels of investment multiples..


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The government of India has taken many steps to attract foreign companies to bid for the NELP blocks, but the foreign participation

was very limited. As on June 2010, the total investment made by India and foreign companies is around $13.8 billion. The eight

round of NELP was launched in April 2009 offering 70 blocks, the highest number of blocks ever. A total of 62 companies comprising

10 foreign companies and 52 Indian companies have made bids and 31 public sector companies were signed

Refining sector in India

India, with its current capacity of around 180 million tons per annum (mtpa)

is poised to emerge as a major refining hub, with considerable capacity

additions being planned over the next few years. Of a total of 20 refineries in

India, public sector unit have a capacity of 107.5 MMTPA while the private

sector players comprising of RIL and Essar have a capacity of close to 72

MMTPA.

The country has further large expansions planned and is aiming to emerge

as refining hub even as global refining market have tightened with the closure

of small refineries in North America and Europe mainly due to challenges in

investing in cleaner fuels and high compliance costs. In addition, permits for

Greenfield refineries are hard to obtain in these countries due to the

environmental concerns. Therefore, capacity addition is primarily coming from

emerging economies like India, China and some Middle Eastern countries.

Capacity additions as well as Greenfield refineries announced by public and

private sector players indicate that almost 40-50 MMTPA of additional refining

capacity will be added by 2013-14 bringing the total available capacity to

nearly 240 MMTPA. Source : KPMG Oil & Gas overview 2010

Total refining capacity as of 2013


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Japan

Japan is the third-largest net importer of oil in the world after the United

States and China in 2010, having imported 4.56 million bpd. The country is

primarily dependent on the Middle East for its oil imports, as roughly 80 % of

Japanese crude oil imports originate in this region, up from 70 % in the mid-

1980s. Japan is currently looking towards Russia, South East Asia, and Africa to

geographically diversify its oil imports.

In 2010, Japan’s oil production was roughly 132,631 bpd, of which 4940 is crude

oil. Japan has 145 producing oil wells in 13 fields. The pace of the domestic

exploration program slowed in 2009-2010, due to the low rate of production

compared with exploration costs.

Japan consumes 4.39 mbpd or 5% of the world’s total consumption and Japanese

oil companies have sought participation in exploration and production projects

overseas with government backing. The government's 2006 energy strategy plan

encourages Japanese companies to increase energy exploration and development

projects around the world to secure a stable supply of oil and natural gas.

The Japan Bank for International Cooperation supports upstream companies by

offering loans at favorable rates. The government's goal is to import 40 percent of

the country's total crude oil imports from Japanese-owned concessions by 2030,

up from the current estimated 19 %.Japan has 4.7 million barrels per day of oil

refining capacity at 30 facilities as of January 2011, and has the second-largest

refining capacity in the Asia-Pacific region after China. As of 2010 Japan has SPR

of 5.83 million barrels and the Japanese SPR is run by the Japan oil, Gas and

Metals and National Corporation.

Currently private refiners in Japan are required to maintain petroleum product

stocks equivalent to at least 70 days of consumption, which imposes large

additional costs to these companies. The March 11 earthquake in Northeastern

Japan caused a shutdown of at least or 26 percent of the current capacity which is

approximately 1.2 million barrels per day. Japan will likely import refined

products, particularly low sulfur fuel oil, in order to compensate shortfalls in fuel

supply for power generation. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Hedge Research


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Important Checkpoints of Sea route for oil trade

Strait of Hormuz & Strait of Malacca are two of the world’s most strategic checkpoints.

Strait of Hormuz: Located between Oman and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the

Arabian Sea. Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint due to its daily oil flow of 15.5 million barrels in 2009, down from

a peak of 17 million barrels per day in 2008. Flows through the Strait in 2009 are roughly 33 percent of all seaborne traded oil (40

percent in 2008). More than 75 percent of these crude oil exports went to Asian markets, with Japan, India, South Korea,

and China representing the largest destinations.

Malacca: The Strait of Malacca, located between Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, links the Indian Ocean to the South China

Sea and Pacific Ocean. Malacca is the shortest sea route between Persian Gulf suppliers and the Asian markets –

notably China, Japan, South Korea, and the Pacific Rim. Oil shipments through the Strait of Malacca supply China and Indonesia, two

of the world’s fastest growing economies. It is the key chokepoint in Asia with an estimated 13.6 million barrels per day flow in 2009,

down slightly from its peak of 14 million barrels per day in 2007.

Suez Canal: Total petroleum transit volume was close to 2 million barrels per day or just below five percent of seaborne oil trade in

2010. Almost 16,500 ships transited the Suez Canal from January through November of 2010, of which about 20 % were petroleum

tankers and 5 % were LNG tankers. Closure of the Suez Canal and the SUMED Pipeline would divert oil tankers around the southern

tip of Africa the Cape of Good Hope, adding approximately 6,000 miles to transit, increasing both costs and shipping time. According

to a report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA), shipping around Africa would add 15 days of transit to Europe and 8-

10 days to the United States.

Sumed Pipeline :The 200-mile long SUMED Pipeline, or Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline provides an alternative to the Suez Canal for

those cargos too large to transit the Canal (laden VLCC’s and larger)

Bab el-Mandab: The Strait of Bab el-Mandab is a chokepoint between the horn of Africa and the Middle East, and a strategic link

between the Mediterranean Sea and Indian Ocean. It is located between Yemen, Djibouti, and Eritrea, and connects the Red Sea

with the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea. Most exports from the Persian Gulf that transit the Suez Canal and SUMED pipeline also

pass through the Bab el-Mandab. Closure of the Bab el-Mandab could keep tankers from the Persian Gulf from reaching the Suez

Canal/Sumed pipeline complex, diverting them around the southern tip of Africa.

http://www.eia.gov/emeu/cabs/oman.html

http://www.eia.gov/emeu/cabs/iran.html

http://www.eia.gov/emeu/cabs/Indonesia/Background.html

http://www.eia.gov/emeu/cabs/Malaysia/Background.html

http://www.eia.gov/emeu/cabs/South_China_Sea/Background.html



http://www.eia.gov/emeu/cabs/China/Background.html

http://www.eia.gov/emeu/cabs/Japan/Background.html

http://www.eia.gov/emeu/cabs/South_Korea/Background.html


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Crude Outlook

Crude oil had a good rally in the year 2011, before it lost $16 in the first week of May, 2011. The major reasons for the decline in

prices was the hike in margins by Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and fears of sluggish demand from the major consumers such

as United States and China. US light sweet crude oil prices last week traded in the range of $93 -$101 a barrel and the prices are

expected to get support from supply concerns in Middle east and north African regions(MENA). MENA regions which are the major oil

producing countries in the world are facing political issues and geo political tensions which are causing a big threat to oil supply. The

Canadian oil production is cut close to 50000 barrels per day of production because of wild fires in the region. Though the prices have

declined reasonably, it is still considered to be high and it could affect the economic growth. The traders are advised to trade

cautiously in crude oil and price movements continue to happen in a range bound with sudden spurts of volatility.

Analyst notes & updates

07/07/2011

WTI crude fell to $90 a barrel after International Energy Agency (IEA) announcement of releasing the coil from the member countries in order to meet

the increasing demand. According to reports, OPEC has asked its member countries to decrease the oil production in order to increase the oil prices and

as a result the prices are currently trading at $97 a barrel (as on 07/07/2011). Barclay’s capital has upgraded its oil price forecast for 2012 for WTI the

price is expected to be at $110 a barrel and Brent oil at $115.

09/06/2011

OPEC plans to increase the crude oil production has been disagreed by the OPEC members, which is a bad sign for the global

economic growth and would increase the inflationary pressures in many countries. However our outlook remains the same on Crude

oil.

Last Updated on 07/07/2011

Note: Crude outlook will be updated on timely manner.


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Researched and prepared by:

Vignesh S.B.K

Junior Analyst

Email: [email protected]

Under the Guidance of

Krishnan Thampi K

Head of Research and Strategies

[email protected]

HEDGE RESEARCH & STRATEGIES GROUP

Head of Research: Krishnan Thampi K

Sr. Fundamental Analyst: Amar Chandramohan

Jr. Fundamental Analyst: Muhammed Aslam E

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Jr. Analyst – Vignesh S.B.K

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