Cooperative Work for Spatial Decision Making: An Emergencies
Management Case
Cooperative Work for Spatial Decision Making: An Emergencies
Management CaseJonathan Frez, Nelson Baloian, Jose A. Pino, Gustavo
Zurita
ContextFind a suitable area to do somethingill-structured
problems :goals are not clear the various decision makers ->
different goals according to their own knowledgeLimited data ->
incomplete.Emergency Management response processes
ProblemEvacuation from coastal areas decisions after a strong
earthquake.Iquique
Source: Earth science: Warning signs of the Iquique
earthquake
Data is missingExactly how many people are now in in each
portion of the territory?Do they have now operating means of
transportation?
Previous work : a graphical display of possible values at each
location. -> one expert.
Scenario BuildingDempster-Shafer theory proposes to use sets of
hypotheses associated to a mass. The mass can be interpreted as
support.Belief is the probability that an hypotheses is supported
by the existing evidence.Plausibility is the probability an
hypotheses is compatible with the evidence.We use the probability
word just to simplify the explanationScenario Building
Previously Work Software:
Spatial FussinessRepetitionsGeneration LanguageGeneration
Engine
Evacuation areas
Evacuation alternatives
how many people are now in in each portion of the
territory?during daytime:UniversitiesRestaurantsshopping
centerspopular beachduring nighttimeHomePubsDisco!
Not a number of people!, a Belief of where people can
be.Combination Methods
Combination Methods: OperatorsSum useful when three independent
but related scenarios must be merged.Subtract be useful to evaluate
the differences between one scenario and other ones.Average This
operator can be used in order to find places where to deploy scarce
resources.
Combination Methods: OperatorsOWA (Ordered Weighted
Average)ordered ascendingly or descendinglyOWA-DESC emphasize the
largest belief values of each scenario, avoiding that a certain
important fact known by one of the experts could be ignored because
of simple averaging.OWA-ASC combination emphasizes the belief when
the values are constantly high in all scenarios.
Some simulations:
People at Beach
Commercial Areas
Near to high buildings
People in unsafe areas.DiscussionThe approach may be used to
collaboratively analyze spatial information using decision making
tools. Could be used in several disaster scenarios.Main drawbacks :
Strongly related to Dempster-Shafer Theory.Representation of belief
values, not magnitude values. After applying an operator between
two or more suitability maps, the relation between the belief
values and the original hypotheses set is not clearUseful as a
visualization and decision making tool
