Institutions and Convergence Initial thoughts on river basins and regional integration

in Africa

STEPS Symposium

September 2010

Alan Nicol

Introduction • When elephants fight…the grass suffers• Thinking in the watery domain, does the same apply to

large institutions involved in RBM and regional integration?

• Is there a ‘regionalist’ juggernaut?• Examine processes of river basin and regional economic community

convergence• Consider the development consequences beyond the oft-repeated

policy mantras of trade liberalism and market forces• Unpack some of the social and economic issues and address the

complexities and implications for local livelihoods• Map out a research framework that can produce new insights and

help in challenging the current policy landscape

Regional integration

• Key features– Long history of attempts– Complex political-economic origins

• Self-reliance / bloc-building / post-Colonial / Apartheid response / institution-building

• Enshrined in key declarations• But little internal trade generated

– Challenges and obstacles• Beyond a few economies, major reliance on commodity

exports• Population – employment – environment relationships are

critical; large-scale dependence on natural capital

River basin organisations• Lifelines for development – increasingly so

– All countries have shared rivers• 64 international basins cover 2/3 of Africa• 17 major basins shared by 31 countries (3 share 9+ countries)• Recent institutional development (partic. East Africa)• 14 major RBCs / 14 RECs

– Account for 90% of the available freshwater• Significance of the RBM ‘narrative’

– ‘big water’ with a focus on infrastructure? – Pushing the post WCD institutional consensus– Benefit sharing…but what is this in reality?– What happens to small water users / other livelihoods

• Stakeholder narratives – are they incorporated?• Problemsheds are not watersheds? Where does IWRM fit

• Relationships to RECs are increasingly important – RECs are becoming economic drivers, but this is generating a Bolognaise of interrelationships…

• Network analysis– How do these

interrelationships operate and at which levels

• Answers will help in determing problem-solving approaches at different levels

– Understanding ‘institutional capital’

• Social/institutional network analysis can be used to asses impact of network/node types on development options and outcomes

– Significance of more loosely, but widely networked versus tighter, but more closed

Key issues

• Institutional overlap and complexity (a known)

• New policy narratives– IWRM and development policy – a new

political economy of benefit sharing– New power dynamics between state and

supra-national development vehicles– A contesting of new policy space within

regional arrangements

East Africa / Lake Victoria

• Heavily invested in as a regional ‘benefit sharing’ opportunity and lauded as an example of convergence

• EAC established at same time as NBI– Lake Victoria designated

‘economic growth zone’ under EAC

• Coordinated development key goal– LVBC now a specialised institution

within the EAC– But relationship to NBI uneasy

Climate moderator in

region

Rich in biodiversity

Largest inland water fishery

Major inland transport linkage

But huge development

pressures

Source of water

ECOWAS/NBA

• Older lineage– NBA established 1963 – nine states– ECOWAS in 1975

• High population pressure in basin and rates of urbanisation

• Also complex downstream economic hegemon, upstream poverty relationship (above 50% income poverty in four countries upstream)– Challenges include: energy demand (upstream dams

reducing flows), irrigation pressures on inland delta

Increasing confidence

• New Water Charter• Sustainable development action plan

– Defines and orients integrated and shared development of the river

• Investment program– Developent of socio-economic infrastructure– Protection of ecosystems– Capacity building and stakeholder involvement– Comprising four 5-year plans up to 2027– First phase is an ‘intense phase’ of physical

investments – ‘especially’ the construction of three transboundary dams

Implications 1

• Migration across and within basins• Changes in patterns of water use (quality and demand)• Commercialisation processes linked to emphasis on value

chains and export• More rapid urbanisation in and around key water sources• Wider development of ‘complexsheds’ (linking local water

management decisions and impacts to global market forces)

• Application of IWRM concepts, stakeholder engagement and resource valuation (pricing, rights regimes, value)

Implications 2

• How to measure the strength of supranatoinal institutions?– Example of the recent Nile ‘division’ into

upstream/downstream processes– Are new faultlines emerging?

• Need to link the political economy of regional development to the logic of resource protection and access to the poor

• So far in regional analyses little on natural resources and regional economic integration– poorly understood processes

Conclusions• Yes, the processes are meaningful and

potentially important in terms of impacts on poverty– But little detail on the complex and fragile resource-

livelihoods relationships (more understanding required)

• Processes of stakeholder engagement are in their infancy, but genuine attempts are being made (some reluctance on both sides to overcome)– Are the goals and purpose sufficiently clear?

• Provide further assistance to ensure regional integration processes and local development goals in line

Starting point: Towardsa Virtual Basin Model ofnodes and networks…

…that encompasses hydrological, institutional and political economic patterns and trends involved in shaping ownership, access, availability and quality of water resources

Thank you