Knowledge network for System Innovations
and transitions (www.ksinetwork.nl)
Transformative Change towards Sustainable Mobility
Jan RotmansJan Rotmans
Oslo, 31-01-2011Oslo, 31-01-2011
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Persistent Problems
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Persistent problems
• our society faces a number of persistent problemsour society faces a number of persistent problems
• many examples: climate change, energy supply, many examples: climate change, energy supply,
water problem, mobility problem, agriculture, health carewater problem, mobility problem, agriculture, health care
• persistence is due to system failures that are deeply rootedpersistence is due to system failures that are deeply rooted
in our societal structuresin our societal structures
• regular policy aimed at incremental improvementregular policy aimed at incremental improvement
is not enough to resolve persistent problemsis not enough to resolve persistent problems
transformative change is neededtransformative change is needed
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Persistency of mobility system
• congestioncongestion10% of Europese car network confronted with traffic jams10% of Europese car network confronted with traffic jams
• victimsvictims 41.000 victims per year in Europe41.000 victims per year in Europe
• space usespace use75% increase over the last 30 years75% increase over the last 30 years
• pollutionpollution 30% of CO2-emissions in Europe due to transport30% of CO2-emissions in Europe due to transport
• noisenoise 33% of Europeans exposed to damaging noise pollution33% of Europeans exposed to damaging noise pollution
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Damage of unsustainable symptoms
• total expenses for transport sector in Europe aretotal expenses for transport sector in Europe are
about 1500 billion Euro, is 10% of European GDP about 1500 billion Euro, is 10% of European GDP
• estimated damage as a result of congestion is aboutestimated damage as a result of congestion is about
1 % of European GDP and increases till about1 % of European GDP and increases till about
2 % by 20202 % by 2020
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Conclusion
the current mobility system is far from the current mobility system is far from sustainablesustainable
both on the European and on the Dutch scaleboth on the European and on the Dutch scale
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Sustainability Transitions
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fundamental change of structure, culture and practices in fundamental change of structure, culture and practices in
societal (sub)systemsocietal (sub)system
• structure:structure: physical infrastructure, economic physical infrastructure, economic infrastructure infrastructure (market, consumption, production), (market, consumption, production), institutionsinstitutions
(rules, regulations, collective (rules, regulations, collective actors)actors)
• culture:culture: collective set of values, norms, perspectivecollective set of values, norms, perspective
(shared orientation), paradigm (defining(shared orientation), paradigm (defining
problems and solutions)problems and solutions)
• practices:practices: routines, behaviour, ways of handling,routines, behaviour, ways of handling,
implementation at the individual levelimplementation at the individual level
incumbent structure, culture and practices need to be brokenincumbent structure, culture and practices need to be broken
down and new (sustainable) ones need to be built up down and new (sustainable) ones need to be built up
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Examples of transitions
• from coal energy supply to gas energy supplyfrom coal energy supply to gas energy supply
• from extensive to intensive agriculturefrom extensive to intensive agriculture
• from an industrial - to service - to knowledge economyfrom an industrial - to service - to knowledge economy
• from fossil fuel based energy supply to renewablefrom fossil fuel based energy supply to renewableenergy supply energy supply
not spontaneous processesnot spontaneous processes
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Mobility System
• structure:structure: traditionally organized, many actors traditionally organized, many actors involvedinvolved
limited collective sterring capacitylimited collective sterring capacity
• culture:culture: dominant paradigm focused on dominant paradigm focused on automobilityautomobility distinction between mobility modalitiesdistinction between mobility modalities
• practices:practices: all routines, behaviour, ways of all routines, behaviour, ways of handling,handling,
are oriented towards carsare oriented towards cars
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Mobility is complex, adaptive system
verkeers- en vervoerssysteem is een complex, adaptief systeem: verkeers- en vervoerssysteem is een complex, adaptief systeem:
• is voortdurend in beweging en bestaat uit samenhangende is voortdurend in beweging en bestaat uit samenhangende componenten die elkaar wezenlijk beïnvloeden (co-evolutie)componenten die elkaar wezenlijk beïnvloeden (co-evolutie)
• heeft een zekere onvoorspelbaarheid (chaotisch gedrag)heeft een zekere onvoorspelbaarheid (chaotisch gedrag)
• heeft zelforganiserend vermogen (op elke interventie wordt heeft zelforganiserend vermogen (op elke interventie wordt door actoren weer ‘onverwacht’ gereageerd via een door actoren weer ‘onverwacht’ gereageerd via een gedragsaanpassing = reflexief vermogen)gedragsaanpassing = reflexief vermogen)
• zolang men geen rekening houdt met deze complexiteit is elke zolang men geen rekening houdt met deze complexiteit is elke tijdelijke oplossing gedoemd te mislukken. tijdelijke oplossing gedoemd te mislukken.
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20 - 30 years
Acceleration phasePredevelopment phase
20 – 30 years
Breakthrough to sustainable society
”
Widespread application
of new paradigms
Distribution and diffusion of societal advantages
Tipp
ing
Poin
t
Battle between old and
new paradigm
Build up and decay
of institutions
energy
Time
We are here
Consolidatiion
transport
fisheries
health care
agriculture
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Multiple Levels
Macro-levelglobalization, demographic trendshypermobilityclimate change
Meso-levellimited collective steering capacityfailing mobility policy Increasing norms for CO2, fine particles
Micro-level mobility innovation programmesmobility experiments
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Conclusion
Dutch mobility system is in a lock-in stateDutch mobility system is in a lock-in state
‘ ‘ measures for achieving sustainable mobility either : measures for achieving sustainable mobility either :
are acceptable but have no serious impacts orare acceptable but have no serious impacts or
have impacts but no broad support in society ’have impacts but no broad support in society ’
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Why do transitions often fail?
game, rules and playersgame, rules and players
transition requires a new structure, culture and practicestransition requires a new structure, culture and practices
transition requires new rules, new players and new gametransition requires new rules, new players and new game
dominant players have too many interests to defend anddominant players have too many interests to defend anddondon’’t want to change the rules drasticallyt want to change the rules drastically
only new players can only new players can ‘‘break openbreak open’’ the game and change the game and changethe rulesthe rules
more, different, bettermore, different, better
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Sustainability as orientation
sustainability serves as guiding orientation for transitionsustainability serves as guiding orientation for transition
sustainable development is a socially and scientificallysustainable development is a socially and scientificallycontested notion: contested notion: no unique definition or approachno unique definition or approach
transitiontransition approachapproach
organize reflexive search and learning process with organize reflexive search and learning process with stakeholders [frontrunners] to assess what sustainabilitystakeholders [frontrunners] to assess what sustainabilityis in a particular contextis in a particular context
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Transition governance
rules of thumbrules of thumb
• long-term thinking as the basis for short term policylong-term thinking as the basis for short term policy
• think in terms of multiple domains (multi-domain), think in terms of multiple domains (multi-domain), different actors (multi-actor), different actors (multi-actor), different levels (multi-level)different levels (multi-level)
• learning as an important aim for policy (‘learning-by-learning as an important aim for policy (‘learning-by-doing’ and ‘doing-by-learning’)doing’ and ‘doing-by-learning’)
• using uncertainties as a starting point for governanceusing uncertainties as a starting point for governance
• keeping options open (wide playing field)keeping options open (wide playing field)
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Forced Steering is counterproductive
Suzuki Foundation report on climate change policySuzuki Foundation report on climate change policy
radical recommendationsradical recommendations• CCS mandatoryCCS mandatory• California-level fuel efficiency standards for vehiclescCalifornia-level fuel efficiency standards for vehiclesc• capturing methane emissions from all landfillscapturing methane emissions from all landfills• less growth in Alberta and Saskatchewanless growth in Alberta and Saskatchewan
Battle between ProvincesBattle between Provinces
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Transition approach
principlesprinciples
- put energy in frontrunners and not in the packput energy in frontrunners and not in the pack
- bring frontrunners together in protected spaces bring frontrunners together in protected spaces
- develop a long-term agenda, incl. vision + pathwaysdevelop a long-term agenda, incl. vision + pathways
- start with portfolio of transition experimentsstart with portfolio of transition experiments
- create new coalitions around pathways & experimentscreate new coalitions around pathways & experiments
searching, learning, experimentingsearching, learning, experimenting
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Transition approach cycle
vision, pathways,transition
agenda
transition arena
transition experiments
evaluation, monitoring
learning
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society
Transition arenasRegular policy arena
- Short term- Peloton - Incremental change- Problem- and goal oriented
- Long term- Innovators - System-innovation- Problem- and goal searching
The transition arena space for experimenting and envisioning
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Transition Experiments
ssocietal experiments with high risks (chance of failure) and ocietal experiments with high risks (chance of failure) and a high potential to contribute to a transition processa high potential to contribute to a transition process
how to manage portfolio of transition experiments?how to manage portfolio of transition experiments?
- deepeningdeepening [learn as much as possible from an experiment][learn as much as possible from an experiment]
- broadeningbroadening [repeating an experiment in a different context][repeating an experiment in a different context]
- scaling upscaling up [anchoring of an experiment in the regime[anchoring of an experiment in the regime]]
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Transition Experiments
• energy delivering greenhouseenergy delivering greenhouse
• rush hour avoidancerush hour avoidance
• electric vehicleselectric vehicles
• CCS close to residential areaCCS close to residential area
• sustainable roofssustainable roofs
• regulatory free zonesregulatory free zones
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Ongoing transition processes
• six Dutch ministries have official transition policysix Dutch ministries have official transition policy• Water transitionWater transition• Energy transitionEnergy transition• Construction sector transitionConstruction sector transition• Mobility transitionMobility transition• Biodiversity transitionBiodiversity transition• Health care transitionHealth care transition
• regional governments experiment with transition policyregional governments experiment with transition policy• Provinces Zeeland, Flevoland, North-HollandProvinces Zeeland, Flevoland, North-Holland• Regions such as Zuidvleugel, Texel, Haarlemmermeer, Regions such as Zuidvleugel, Texel, Haarlemmermeer,
TwenteTwente• Cities such as Almere, Rotterdam Cities such as Almere, Rotterdam
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Energy transition• in 2001 initiated by the ministry of Economic Affairs (EZ)in 2001 initiated by the ministry of Economic Affairs (EZ)
• started with a niche (small group of frontrunners within EZ)started with a niche (small group of frontrunners within EZ)evolved into a movement with companies, NGOs, knowledgeevolved into a movement with companies, NGOs, knowledgeinstitutions and individualsinstitutions and individuals
• vision has been developed vision has been developed [‘where do we want to go?’][‘where do we want to go?’]
• 7 main themes chosen7 main themes chosen [platforms or arenas][platforms or arenas]
• 23 transition paths formulated 23 transition paths formulated [‘how to go there from here?’][‘how to go there from here?’]
• 100 transition experiments set up100 transition experiments set up [‘how to implement paths?’][‘how to implement paths?’]
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6 ministriesInfluential personsfrom energy sector
(Ministerie van EZ)
SENTER NOVEM
TRANSITION-PROJECTS
Platform-secretaries
TaskforceEnergy transition
PLATFORMSUSUTAINABLEble
MOBILITY
UKR-support
Frontrunnersoffice
PLATFORMGREEN
RESOURCES
PLATFORMCHAIN-
EFFIICENCY
PLATFORM SUSTAINABLE
ELECTRIC.
PLATFORM BUILT
ENVIRONMENT
PLATFORMNEW GAS
23 23 TransitionTransition-pathways-pathways
11Long-term Long-term
visionvision
100-en100-enTransitionTransition
experimentsexperiments
PLATFORMGREENHOUSE
SOURCE
IPE Supporting
staff
“6 DG”team
InterdepartementaleProgramme boardEnergy transition
Energy transition begonnen met 1 arena…..
77TransitionTransition
themesthemes
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What has been achieved?
• sense of urgency, high ambition levelsense of urgency, high ambition level
• new discours, agenda of reform, breakthrough projectsnew discours, agenda of reform, breakthrough projects
• broad movement with 1000 people involvedbroad movement with 1000 people involved
• high amount of time, manpower, energy investedhigh amount of time, manpower, energy invested
butbut
still dominance of regime players and danger ofstill dominance of regime players and danger ofbecoming and execution process and becoming and execution process and institutionalizedinstitutionalized
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Role of government notnot in a directing role in a directing role
butbut
• a facilitating, enabling, stimulating role a facilitating, enabling, stimulating role
• still an active but different rolestill an active but different role
- formulating vision and high ambition levelformulating vision and high ambition level- creating space for frontrunnerscreating space for frontrunners- stimulating and enabling transition experiments stimulating and enabling transition experiments - removing barriers for sustainable innovationremoving barriers for sustainable innovation
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Role of intermediairy organizations
• brokery rolebrokery role
• co-designing roleco-designing role- co-develop transition instruments co-develop transition instruments - initiating transition experimentsinitiating transition experiments
• monitoring rolemonitoring role- monitoring progress of transition processmonitoring progress of transition process- evaluating transition experimentsevaluating transition experiments
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Successes and Failures
SuccessesSuccesses
energy transitionenergy transition
health care transitionhealth care transition
implemented in regular policyimplemented in regular policy
FailuresFailures
mobility transitionmobility transition
biodiversity transitionbiodiversity transition not created enough critical massnot created enough critical mass
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Lessons
• natural tendency to an execution processnatural tendency to an execution process
• natural tendency of the government to fall backnatural tendency of the government to fall backin the command-and-control modein the command-and-control mode
• the first period is relatively easy, thereafter arisethe first period is relatively easy, thereafter arisewinners and loserswinners and losers
• space for frontrunners is of crucial importancespace for frontrunners is of crucial importance[financial, organizational, juridical, mental space][financial, organizational, juridical, mental space]
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Transition Policy for
Sustainable Mobility
Recommended
