Upload
others
View
4
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
0
18 July 2014
Yara International ASA
Second quarter results 2014
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
1
Strong result
Lower nitrate deliveries amid early end to season in Europe
Continued strong NPK deliveries and value-added premiums
Improved European commodity margins due to lower gas price
Continued Industrial segment growth
Summary second quarter
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
2
10.02
7.73
12.42 11.84
10.54 9.82
9.25
7.67
8.04 6.69
5.66
0.23
6.40
8.26
Earnings per share*
• Average number of shares for 2Q 2014: 276.5 million (2Q 2013: 279.3 million).
NOK 41.99 37.31 20.67 14.66
Annual 2011 2012 2013
EPS excluding currency and
special items
2014
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
3
Continued robust fertilizer demand
Stable urea prices, production curtailed in China and Ukraine
Western Europe nitrogen fertilizer industry deliveries 8% lower, season to
date 2% higher
Tight phosphate markets, following a short-lived correction in April and May
Strong demand for value-added fertilizer products
Fertilizer market development
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
4
Farm economics strong overall, despite grain
price decline
Source: FAO
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
5
Lower US nitrogen deliveries, stable in Europe
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14
Domestic Imports
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14
Production Net imports
West Europe USA
+2%
Million tons N Million tons N
-8%
Source: Yara estimate for fertilizer deliveries to selected West European countries.
Total nitrogen deliveries based on TFI, US Trade Commission, Blue-Johnson and Yara estimates
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
6
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
13/14
Source: BOABC, CFMW
12/13
Chinese urea: strong export volume increase,
limited production increase
11/12
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Black Sea
USD/t
Chinese exports
(kilotons)
Chinese production
(kilotons)
Season-to-date 65.7 mt
(64.6 mt season-to-date last year)
Year-to-date 29.7 mt
(29.6 mt year-to-date last year)
Season-to-date 10.8 mt
(7.9 mt season-to-date last year)
Year-to-date 3.8 mt
(1.3 mt year-to-date last year)
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
7
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14
CAGR
7%
Strong NPK quarter and season, with continued
growth outside Europe
Kilotons
Yara-produced compound NPK deliveries
(by season)
Europe Overseas
Kilotons
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
2Q10 2Q11 2Q12 2Q13 2Q14
Yara-produced compound NPK deliveries
(by quarter)
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
8
Brazil: Yara benefiting both from Bunge
acquisition and increase in industry deliveries
Brazil 1H fertilizer industry deliveries
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2011 2012 2013 2014
+7%
Kilotons
Yara Brazil 1H fertilizer deliveries1
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2011 2012 2013 2014
Kilotons
Source: ANDA, Yara 1) Excluding trade
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
9
Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and
amortization (EBITDA)
4,281
3,455
5,444
4,982
4,310
4,966
4,103
3,591
4,184 4,039
3,318
1,858
3,591
4,227
2011 2013 2012 2014
NOK
millions 18,163 16,970 13,399 7,818
Annual
EBITDA excluding special
items
NOK millions
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
10
EBITDA development
512
287
660
105
459
107
EBITDA
2Q13
Volume & mix Price/margin Gas & oil
costs in
Europe
4,039
4,227
Special
items
Currency Other EBITDA
2Q14
NOK millions
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
11
Improved Downstream and Industrial earnings
1,196
1,525
306 365
2,493 2,498
Downstream Industrial Upstream
EBITDA excluding special items
2Q13 2Q14
EBITDA
(NOK millions)
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
12
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14
Europe North America ROW % of total Industrial deliveries
Strong growth in Air1 deliveries
Kilotons
> 1 million tons of
product sold L12M
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
13
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2Q10 4Q10 2Q11 4Q11 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14
USD/t
Nitrogen upgrading margins1 (monthly publication prices)
Urea CFR CAN (46% N) NH3 CFR (46% N)
Value above gas
Value above
ammonia
Nitrate premium
above urea
Yara EU gas cost *20
Strong nitrate premium at season close
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
2Q10 4Q10 2Q11 4Q11 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14
European nitrate premium2 (quarterly Yara realized)
2) Yara European realized nitrate prices compared with urea
publication prices with one month time lag. All numbers in USD
per ton of CAN equivalents. 1) All prices in urea equivalents
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
14
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2Q10 4Q10 2Q11 4Q11 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14
USD/t
Phosphate upgrading margins
DAP, fob USG
Rock, fob NA *1.4
Value above
raw material
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14
USD/t
NPK premium over blend1
NH3, fob Black Sea *0.22
DAP, fob Morocco
MOP, cfr NWE
Urea, fob Black sea
Improved NPK premiums
Weighted average global
premium above blend cost
1) Export NPK plants, average grade 19-10-13, net of
transport and handling cost.
Nitrate premium
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
15
Lower natural gas cost in Europe
Source: Yara, World Bank, Platts
*Dotted lines denote forward prices as of 10 July 2014
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14
USD/ MMBtu
Zeebrugge (1-month lag) Yara Europe
Yara European gas & oil cost
1
(51) (36)
(660)
(950)
(700)
(1,000)
(800)
(600)
(400)
(200)
0
200
3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14
NOK millions
Actual for quarter
July 2014 estimate**
** Based on forward prices as of 10 July 2014
Change in European energy cost
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
16
1,551
1,119 1,211
1,114
607
1,360
1,672
1,331
469 407
518
865
2Q13 2Q14 2Q13 2Q14 2Q13 2Q14 2Q13 2Q14 2Q13 2Q14 2Q13 2Q14
Yara-produced deliveries Joint venture & third party sourced Total
Fertilizer deliveries by product and source
Nitrate NPK compounds NPK blends Urea UAN
Kilotons
Other
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
17
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Kilotons Finished fertilizer
Urea Nitrates Compound NPK Other
Yara stocks: normal level, adjusted for Bunge
Bunge Fertilizer
included from 3Q 2013
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
18
Net interest-bearing debt development
3,347
860
2,606
2,591
Net debt
Jun 14*
Other FX gain/(loss)
124
Yara Dividend Investments net
1,580
Net operating
capital change
1,382
Dividends
received
from equity-
accounted
investees
26
Cash
earnings**
2,758
Net debt
Mar 14*
* Included in net interest-bearing debt are external bank time deposits (4-12 months), this is part of other current assets in balance sheet
** Operating income plus depreciation and amortization, minus tax paid, net gain/loss on disposals, net interest expense and bank charges
NOK millions
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
19
Prospects
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
20
Farm economics strong overall, despite grain price decline
Break-even urea export price from China; domestic coal price and export
tax regime are key for global commodity nitrogen pricing going forward
Capacity outside China: limited greenfield additions next 2 years, and
curtailments currently in Ukraine
Yara European 3Q deliveries in line so far, and improved commodity-N
margins with lower gas cost
Prospects
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
21
250 kt NPK expansion in Uusikaupunki, Finland
250
1,250
1,000
Current Expansion End 2015
Strong NPK demand growth
outside Europe presents solid
business case
Project to install new
granulator adds ~250 kt
annual capacity
Competitive capex at ~200
EUR/t capacity addition
Completion end 2015
Annual NPK production capacity (kt)
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
22
Additional information
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
23
NOK millions
Total Yara contribution
Value-added upgrading and distribution make
up larger part of Yara’s contribution
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Commodity overseas
Commodity Europe
Fertilizer upgrade & distribution
Trade
4Q13 2Q14 2Q13 4Q12 2Q12 2Q10 4Q11 2Q11 4Q10
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
24
0.75
0.49
0.20
0.07
-0.04
0.05
0.63
0.38
0.22
0.08
0.01
0.06
0.57
0.32
0.12 0.06 0.06
0.56
0.27
0.12
0.02
0.06
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Debt/equity ratio
Net interest-bearing debt / equity ratio (end of period)
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
25
4.0 4.4 4.2 4.4
4.1
3.3
2.5 2.3 2.9
3.4 3.5 4.0
3.6 3.9
5.2 4.6
4.1 4.2
4.8
5.7
7.6
8.3 8.3 8.6
7.9 7.7
8.1 8.3 8.3
8.5
7.5
7.8 8.1
6.9
5.9 6.4
4.7
6.6
9.0
9.5 9.2 9.0 9.3 9.1
9.1
10.3 11.1
10.3 10.1 10.7 9.7
7.8
6.2
8.6
6.6
7.6
10.1
11.1 10.9 10.8 11.0 11.0 10.8
11.4 11.5 11.9
10.8 11.2 11.3
9.2
7.3
8.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2009 2010 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14
US gas price (Henry Hub) Yara Global Zeebrugge day ahead Yara Europe
Gas & oil cost
USD per MMBtu
Source: Yara, World Bank, Platts
Yearly averages 2009 – 2010, quarterly averages for 2011-14 with forward prices* for 3Q14 and 4Q14
*Dotted lines denote forward prices as of 10 July 2014
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
26
Currency exposure affecting P&L
At the beginning of the third quarter 2014
1. The US dollar debt generating p&l exposure was USD 950 million
• Kept as hedge of future earnings and to finance inventories in emerging markets
• Around 80% towards EUR and BRL, the rest towards NOK and emerging market
currencies
• The debt level in emerging markets will fluctuate with fertilizer seasons
2. Additional p&l exposure from internal currency positions vs. NOK
• Payables mainly CAD (200 million)
• Receivables mainly EUR (165 million), GBP (25 million) and AUD (45 million)
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
27
5,256 5,179
4,763
6,104 6,284
6,017
4,742
3,496
4,882
5,210 5,216
4,791
5,129
4,759
5,474
4,914
5,296
4,970 4,834
4,239
5,437 5,253
5,013 5,044
5,297
6,342
5,884
6,146
6,405 6,491
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Europe Outside Europe Total
Fertilizer deliveries
Kilotons
2010 2007 2008 2009 2011 2012 2013 2014
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
28
Yara 2Q fertilizer sales by market and product
2,771
1,448
644
1,118
361
2,183 2,487
537
954
329
Europe Latin America Asia North America Africa
2Q13 2Q14
1,211
607
1,551 1,672
518 469 314
1,114 1,360
1,119 1,331
865
407 295
NPK compounds NPK blends Nitrate Urea Other products UAN CN
Kilotons
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
29
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
2Q10 2Q11 2Q12 2Q13 2Q14
NPK and nitrate deliveries
Kilotons
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
2Q10 2Q11 2Q12 2Q13 2Q14
Yara-produced nitrate deliveries
Kilotons
Yara-produced compound NPK deliveries
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
30
Industrial deliveries
867843
896
837860
816
455
382432
374368343 342
313337346342
304
4Q13 2Q14 1Q14 3Q13 2Q13 1Q13
Industrial N-chemicals Other Environmental products
Kilotons
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
31
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Kilotons
Urea Nitrates NPK CN UAN SSP - based fertilizer
2013 2010 2011 2012 2014
Yara production volume*
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Kilotons
2014
* Including share of equity-accounted investees
Finished fertilizer and industrial products Ammonia
2013 2010 2011 2012
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
32
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1/2004 1/2005 1/2006 1/2007 1/2008 1/2009 1/2010 1/2011 1/2012 1/2013 1/2014
Index
FAO price index
Cereals Price Index Cereals 5 year avg. Food Price Index Food 5 year avg.
Farm economics support fertilizer demand
Source: FAO
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
33
Source: USDA July 2014
For 2014/15, global grain production and
consumption close to balanced
1,950
2,000
2,050
2,100
2,150
2,200
2,250
2,300
2,350
2,400
2,450
2,500
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14E 15F
Million tons
Consumption Production
Grain consumption and production Days of consumption in stocks
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14E 15F
Days
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
34
64.6
7.9
56.8 54.9
10.8
65.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Pro
du
ctio
n
Expo
rt
Dom
estic
Dom
estic
Expo
rt
Pro
du
ctio
n
Million tons
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Million tons
13/14
Source: BOABC, CFMW
12/13
Production stable, reduced domestic supply
due to more exports
Chinese urea production Domestic urea balance
Jul-May 12/13 Jul-May 13/14
-3%
11/12
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
35
Source: CRU urea update July 2014 . Consumption data source is IFA.
Year Driving regions Urea capacity growth relative
to nitrogen capacity
Excluding China Excluding China
2013 Qatar 23%
Algeria 16% 1.6%
2014 Algeria 16%
UAE 15% 1.5%
2015 Saudi Arabia 22%
USA 20% 1.9%
2016 USA 48%
Malaysia 12% 2.0%
2017 Nigeria 34%
USA 26% 2.1%
Gross annual addition 2013-2017 ~1.8%
Assumed annual closures ~0.5%
Net annual addition 2011-2015 ~1.3%
Trend consumption growth from 2002 2.1%
Projected nitrogen capacity additions outside
China
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
36
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Index June 2007=1
13/14 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13
Source: Fertilizers Europe, Yara estimate for June
European producer nitrate stocks ending the
season close to average
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
37
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14
Thousand contracts
Source: US Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Non-commercials’ net long position in corn
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
38
Key value drivers – quarterly averages
342 308 314
338 299
379 336 354
414
358
2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14
Urea prilled fob Black Sea (USD/t)/Urea granular fob Egypt (USD/t)
322 294 291
345 354
2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14
CAN cif Germany (USD/t)
4.0 3.6 3.8
5.2
4.6
2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14
US gas price Henry Hub (USD/MMBtu)
10.3 10.1 10.7
9.7
7.6
2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14
Zeebrugge day ahead (USD/MMBtu)
5.8
6.0
6.1 6.1
6.0
2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14
NOK/USD exchange rate
500
430 417 438 485
2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14
Ammonia fob Black Sea (USD/t)
Source: Fertilizer Market Publications, CERA, World Bank, Norges Bank
IR-Date: 2014-07-18
39
10-year fertilizer prices – monthly averages
Source: Average of international publications
0
200
400
600
800
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
USD/t Urea prilled fob Black Sea/Urea granular fob Egypt
Average prices 2004 - 2013
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
USD/t DAP fob US Gulf/MOP granular fob Vancouver
0
100
200
300
400
500
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
USD/t CAN cif Germany
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
USD/t Ammonia fob Black Sea