WVU Summit Address_Breton_final

Maximizing the Impact of PEMS in

Future Compliance Programs

Real World Emissions Technology Summit

West Virginia University

Leo Breton

Sept. 28, 2016

Outline

• Meaningful Routine Real-World

Compliance Testing’s Time Has Come

• ROVER PEMS Equipment Quality and

Accuracy is What Enabled Today’s Real

World Focus – Let’s Not Regress Now

• Qualified as the Pioneer of Real-World

Compliance Testing

Chassis Dynamometer Testing

Inventor Motivation for ROVER/PEMS

Engine Dynamometer Testing


Lab testing was very abstract and expensive:

• Unrealistic speeds, unchanging pattern, trained

drivers and no traffic, 68-86F temp range,

exhaust aftertreatment cooling unrealistic,

simulated electronic signals, etc.

• Emissions systems tuned to the test

Yet provided the data for many EPA purposes:

• Emissions compliance, CAFÉ, emissions factors,

modeling, emissions system durability, reg.

writing what ifs?

But did lab testing reflect reality?


Two EPA OTAQ camps of thought when asked:

1. Lab measurements were generally representative

of real world emissions

2. Even if there is a difference, the lab results

should be proportionate, i.e. as standards get

reduced over time, the percent reductions would

also occur in the real world

Real-world testing was not technically possible,

was not contemplated by regulations, and was

not thought to be necessary or useful by industry

or EPA

EPA Thinking Before ROVER/PEMS

Real-world testing not technically possible

• Can’t measure exhaust flow accurately

• Flow and concentration phasing changes with engine

speed and load makes it impossible

• Vehicle vibrations will wreak havoc with analyzers and

transducers

• Non-EPA organizations would be able to test vehicles

and declare non-compliance whether true or not

• Lab testing is effective

• We can simulate everything/anything in the lab

Real-world testing was not technically possible,

was not contemplated by regulations, and was

not thought to be necessary or useful by industry

or EPA

Industry Position on ROVER/PEMS Concept

Measure mass emissions and distance traveled of

any arbitrary engine/vehicle “blind,” i.e. based

on primary measurements without needing:

• Any vehicle information, e.g. make and model

• Any vehicle speed or other sensor signal

• ECM data stream or OBD port data

Optional Supplemental Diagnostic Data

• ECM data stream or OBD port data if desired

and available

• Enable diagnosing causes of emissions and fuel

economy issues seen with primary measurements

Inventor Goal: “Blind Testing” With Diagnostics

Regulatory compliance is serious business:

• Recalls cost OEM’s millions–don’t accuse

without certainty

• Findings could lead to lawsuits

• Testing must be technically correct and rigorous

Two parts to regs. for vehicle useful life:

1. Emit below numerical, mass-based standard

• Expensive laboratory equipment used

• Standard lab test cycle

2. Defeat devices are prohibited

• Supplemental information needed

Inventor Regulatory Compliance Mindset

Blind Testing Enabled by Inventing Flow Meter

Elimination of dilution tunnel by measuring, not

inferring exhaust flow rate

• Without depending on vehicle data stream

• “Blind Testing” knowing nothing proprietary

about vehicle

• Measure exhaust flow rate of moving vehicle

• Synchronizing exhaust flow rate and

concentration with changing speeds/loads

Instrumentation Size

• Portable gas analyzer with real-time comm.

Power requirement

• 12 volt equipment

Major Technical Problems Had to Be Overcome

No perceived need

• EPA ran FTPs

• Reducing standards without real-world feedback

was thought to be effective

• Industry opposition

No budget for “science projects” attitude

• Borrowed 5 gas analyzer from Snap-on

• Repurposed all other equipment except annubar

flow element

• Did most work in spare time

Major Structural Problems Had to Be Overcome

ROVER PEMS Demos and presentations • EPA Nat. Veh. Fuels and Emiss. Lab (NVFEL)

• Mobile Source Federal Advisory Committee (FACA) –

Mike Walsh, Chair

• Engine Manufacturers Association (EMA)

Loaned ROVERs for use: • NESCAUM, CARB, Moscow, Vermont

Loaned ROVERs for Correlation studies: • West Virginia University (WVU)

• Southwest Research Institute (SwRI)

• Aberdeen Proving Grounds (APG)

Featured prominently in DOJ investigations of

90’s

Getting the Word Out to Others

ROVER Connected to Tailpipe Flow Meter

Measured in Series With Lab System: single test on many

vehicles and many tests on single vehicle

Rigorous Laboratory Prove-Out Program

Assorted Applications – Light Duty

Assorted Applications – Power Plant Coal Pile

1998 Non-Road Testing

Assorted Applications - Lawnmower

Enabled Real-World Testing Programs

Remote Monitoring from Chase Vehicle

X-Country Marathon Testing

3 US and Numerous International Patents Issued

Courtesy of http://jpx.responsejp.com/jpx/images/2014/05/21/223656_1.jpg?fit=normal

ROVER Patents Licensed to Horiba Instruments

An Older Sensors, Inc. System

…and to Sensors, Inc.

Enabled VW Defeat Device Discovery Courtesy West Virginia University

ROVER Available Worldwide for Past 10 Years

Courtesy West Virginia University

Original ROVER to Commercial PEMS

Outline







Compliance Testing

We Have Come a Long Way Since 1995

We now know that:

1. Lab testing is often not representative of real

world emissions/FE

2. Standards reductions may not translate to the

real world

3. Lax compliance checks creates an uneven

playing field and the need to cheat

But real-world testing is now technically possible

and is now performed routinely by many

We have come a long way since 1995

We have come a long way since 1995 1995 - Compliance Was Easy

• Road Testing Impossible

• No Equipment Available

• Off-Cycle Denial

• NAAQ Not Responding to OTAQ

Approach - Keep Reducing Numerical

Stds.

• Lab Based Compliance

1995-2008 – Compliance Became

Real

• Commercial ROVER PEMS Equipment

• Defeat Devices Don’t Pay

• Off-Cycle Emissions On Everyone’s

Radar

2008-2015? • Effect of Closed Compliance Lab

• Resigned from OTAQ

Calibration Space Dimensions

Throttle

Coolant Temp

Ambient Temp

Throttle Movement Baro Pressure

Load

Aux. Loads

Catalyst/Piston

Temps

Boost

Vehicle Speed

Engine Speed ?

John Hoard’s Views Following SAE



Petroleum Displacement (PD) Mission of VTO

• PD is a Real-world quantity with huge economic

and political significance

• Significant error in using lab results to quantify

• Drivetrain technology comparisons would likely

be very different if we had a real-world

comparison – unknown net effect

• PD accounting would be better with real-world

focus for all drivetrain technologies

Why Should Others Be Interested in PEMS?

• Simulations have no place in real-world testing

• Decide on goal first – robustness of emissions controls to:

– Aggressive driving?

– Ambient conditions?

– Age and use (durability)?

• Industry position in Europe suggests emissions from real driving more

aggressive than current lab cycle should be discounted

– Why is this different than lower temperature, pressure, altitude, wind

conditions, idle periods, etc? Because it is not intuitive to the public?

– What would we be left with? Lab data collected on the road??

• Real world testing for the sake of appearances is a loser – more

aggressive driving is a real world phenomenon like temperature and

pressure – most data should be included in final result without altering

• If adoption of an RDE does not cause an improvement in vehicle

technology and calibrations, the opportunity will have been

squandered.

A Bad RDE is Worse Than No RDE

Outline







Compliance Testing

“Blind Testing” Concept Still Key

• Mass emissions accurately determined by actual

measurements of concentrations and exhaust flow rate

• Data stream data reserved for diagnostics or screening

• No information is needed from manufacturer

• The methodology is exactly the same for gas/diesel, all

manufacturers, turbo/non-turbo, and any size engine from

HDD to lawnmower.

• Relying on OBD or proprietary data is a slippery slope which

should be avoided.

• I fought the accuracy and quality battle while at OTAQ – let’s

not do it again or forfeit those gains

Future Cost / Quality Considerations

• Of course lower cost is always good, all else being equal

• PEMS is a low cost way of doing lab quality data acquisition

but standards are needed that drive up cost

• Don’t expect more defeat devices – too risky

• Most future uses will be for discerning smaller differences in

fuel economy/emissions or cycle differences – high quality is

still needed for what WE do

• Consider the OEM legal ramifications – your data will be used

by others for purposes you cannot control

• We fought the battle in the ’90s prevailed – make sure we

don’t regress…

Happy Testing!

Thank You!!

Documents

WVU Summit Address_Breton_final