WORLD DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2019

THE CHANGING NATURE OF WORK

An Open Source and Transparent Process

▪Weekly updated drafts:http://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/wdr2019

▪ 130,000 downloads of the draft as of July 6th, 2018

▪ The Report will be published in October 2018.

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Focus on Developing Countries

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Countries/regions with most relevant cases to the Changing Nature of Work

Note: Top 10 most mentioned countries/regions in the 2019 WDR

India-55

China-46

Kenya-31

Mexico-23 Vietnam-21

Sub-Saharan Africa-20

Brazil-20

South Africa-20

United States-20

Bangladesh-18

Advanced and Socioemotional Skills Are Becoming More Important

Source: Authors’ analyses based on Wenhui News and career website.

Technology Is Disrupting the Nature of Firms

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Source: Author’s calculation, based on data from NASDAQ, AirBnb, Marriot International Inc., Financial Times.

New Superstar Firms: digital platforms operating globally, existing in the cloud

Industrial Jobs Are Falling in the West, Rising in the East

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Source: Authors’ calculations based on World Development Indicators.Note: “Rising East Asia” include Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Mongolia, Myanmar, Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam

The Forces of Automation and Innovation Will Shape Future Employment

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• Automation causes the employment in old sectors to decline.

• Innovation causes new sectors or tasks to emerge.

Source: Authors’ analyses.

Irrespective of Technological Progress, Markets in Emerging Economies Remain Largely Informal

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Source: Authors’ calculations using household and labor force survey data from the International Income Distribution Database

Investing in Human Capital Is the Priority

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Source: Authors’ calculations

Argentina

Benin

China

Colombia

Côte d'Ivoire

India

Indonesia

Kenya

Malawi

Mexico

Morocco

Philippines

Russian Federation

Singapore

South Africa

ThailandTurkey

Vietnam

.2.4

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6 8 10 12Log Real GDP Per Capita at PPP

Note: Data are preliminary and subject to revision.

Human Capital Index

WBG Human Capital Index measures the human capital that a child born today can expect to attain by the end of secondary school.

Human Capital Foundations, Created in Early Childhood, Are More Important Than Ever

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Children from disadvantaged background are least likely to attend early childhood

education programs

Source: Authors’ calculations based on data obtained from UNICEF Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey.

Stronger Social Protection: Protect People, Not Jobs

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Source: Adapted from World Bank 2018c.

Social Inclusion Is Costly

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Source: Authors’ calculations based on World Bank World Development Indicators, World Bank PovcalNet, and United Nations World Population Prospects.

Simulated cost of UBI for closing the poverty gap by country income group (% of GDP)

Tax Revenues Have to Rise, Especially in Developing Economies

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Source: Authors’ calculations based on International Centre for Tax and Development (ICTD) and UNU-WIDER Government Revenue Dataset2017.

Countries Have Several Options for Generating Additional Fiscal Resources

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▪ Value-added tax

▪ Excise tax (tobacco, alcohol, sugar, soda tax)

▪ Carbon tax

▪ Corporate tax

▪ Taxing immovable property

▪ Eliminate fuel subsidies

▪ Reduce tax avoidance by multinationals and tax the digital economy

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http://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/wdr2019