Wicked Problems(Understanding

complexity)

Agree concepts

Define boundaries

Land spanning more than 0.5 hectares with trees higher than 5 meters and a canopy cover of more than 10 percent, or trees able to reach these thresholds in situ. It does not include land that is predominantly under agricultural or urban land use.

What is a forest?

Definitions matter

Source: Rekacewicz et al. 2009 http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/forest

13 m ha.yr-1

Determining trends

Reforestation7,8 m ha.yr-1

Forest Expansion

Afforestation

Understanding the trendDeveloping a dynamic systems understanding

Time

EXPLAINING THE TRENDS: Identifying Drivers

Underlying causes

Proximate causes

Influencing factors

Demography

Births, deaths

MigrationPopulation

density

Culture

Public attitudes, beliefs, values

Individual behaviour

Institutions

Formal policiesPolicy

environmentProperty

rights

Technology

Intensification

Infrastructure

Processing efficiency

Economy

Market growthMarket

demandPrice

fluctuation

Infrastructure

Transport & energy

IndustrialisationUrban

expansion

Agriculture

Cultivation typeLand clearance

Land speculation

Timber extraction

Commercial logging

Illegal loggingLogging intensity

Environment

Disturbance regime

Social & political stability

It’s complex!

Wellbeing• Quality of Life• Think…

• What is important in your life?

What is important for your quality of life?

LivelihoodsHow do you secure what is important to you?

Capital Assets Framework

Natural Capital• Land and products• Water & aquatic

resources• Trees and forest

products• Wildlife• Wild foods & fibres

Physical Capital• Infrastructure

• transport - roads, vehicles, etc.• secure shelter & buildings• water supply & sanitation• energy• communications

• Technology• tools and equipment• seed, fertiliser, pesticides• traditional technology

Financial Capital

• Savings• Credit/debt• Remittances• Pensions• Wages

Human Capital

• Health• Nutrition• Education• Knowledge and

skills• Capacity to work• Capacity to adapt

Social Capital

• Networks and connections

• Trust• Formal and informal

groups• Participation in

decision-making• Leadership

Sustainable Livelihood Framework

Human

Natural

PhysicalFinancial

Social

0

5

StudentTeacher

Livelihoods

“The assets (natural, physical, human, financial and social), and access to these determine the living gained by the individual or the household”

Source: Ellis, 2000. Rural Livelihoods and Diversity in Developing Countries.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER

The Social-Ecological System

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Trade Offs

1. Ecosystem Services

2. Strategies

3. Stakeholders

4. Technical fixesPeople have many different options, and they are good at finding new ones!

Wicked Problems

• Multiple actors• Differing

perspectives• Conflicting interests• Significant

intangibles• Pervasive

uncertainties

• Each solution is unique

• Each solution is costly

• …and has consequences

Former US Secretary of State George Shultz drew a distinction between “problems you can solve”, and “problems you can only work at.”

Think of a problem.

Are you having trouble clearly defining it?

Does it involve changing what people think or do, or how they think of themselves?

Do you suspect that when you think you have solved it, there will still be some outstanding issue, or new problem to deal with?

Do you know that no matter what you do, someone will be unhappy?

Does the problem keep changing?

Are you failing to make progress by being rational?

An environmental problem.

Wicked Problems

• Solutions are not right or wrong …

… but more or less acceptable

• No stopping rule• The answer is a

process

• Authoritative

• Competitive

• Collaborative

Taming Wicked Problems