Wicked Problems: National Security Implications of the ... · problem • Every solution to a wicked problem is a one-shot operation • Every wicked problem is essentially unique

WickedProblems:NationalSecurityImplicationsoftheFourth

IndustrialRevolutionLintonWellsII

C4I&CyberCenterSeminarApril10,2017©2017

Overview

• DefinitionofWickedProblems• FourIndustrialRevolutions• IntersectionswithCurrentMilitaryDevelopments• InternationalChallenges• ImplicationsofConvergingTrends• ChallengesforNationalSecurityDecision-Makers&Research

4/10/17 [email protected],[email protected],202.436.6354,Skype:linwells

SecurityDefinition

Freedomfromwantandfreedomfromfear


BroadClassesofProblems

• Simple(orTameorWell-Structured)Problems– Problemiswell-definedandhowtosolveitisgenerallyknown,eventhoughexecutingmaybehard

– Seeslide6• Complicated(orMedium-Structured)Problems– Generalagreementonproblemdefinition,butnotonthesolution

• Wicked(orComplexorIll-Structured)Problems– Noagreementonproblemdefinition,muchlessonsolution.Seeslides7-8


TameProblems• Havearelativelywell-definedandstableproblemstatement.

• Haveadefinitestoppingpoint,i.e.weknowwhenthesolutionorasolutionisreached.

• Haveasolutionwhichcanbeobjectivelyevaluatedasbeingrightorwrong.

• Belongtoaclassofsimilarproblemswhichcanbesolvedinasimilarmanner.

• Havesolutionswhichcanbetriedandabandoned.4/10/17 [email protected],[email protected],

202.436.6354,Skype:linwells

CriteriaforWickedProblems(1)Rittel andWebber,1973,asamplifiedbyUnitedStatesArmy.“Commander’sAppreciationandCampaignDesign”Version1.0,28January2008.Pages4-12.

Wicked(orComplex,orIll-Structured)Problems• Thereisnodefinitivewaytoformulateawickedproblem• Wickedproblemshaveno“stoppingrule”• Solutionstowickedproblemsarebetterorworse,notrightorwrong• Thereisnoimmediate,norultimate,testofasolutiontoawicked

problem• Everysolutiontoawickedproblemisaone-shotoperation• Everywickedproblemisessentiallyuniqueandnovel• Wickedproblemsareinteractivelycomplex• Everywickedproblemisasymptomofanotherproblem• Wecannotunderstandawickedproblemwithoutproposingasolution• Wickedproblemshavenofixedsetofpotentialsolutions• Theproblem-solverhasnorighttobewrong


CriteriaforWickedProblems(2)WickedProblems: Aclassofproblems“thatdefysolution,evenwithourmostsophisticatedanalyticaltools”Characterizedby:• Nodefinitiveproblemstatement:infact,thereisbroaddisagreementonwhat‘theproblem’is

• Anopen-endedsearchforsolutions• Stakeholderschampionalternativesolutionsandcompetewithoneanotherinwaysthatdirectlyconnectstheirpreferredsolutionandtheirpreferredproblemdefinition

• Problemsolvingprocessiscomplexsinceconstraintsareconstantlychanging

• Constraintsalsochangebecausenumerousinterestedpartieschangetheproblem-solvingrules4/10/17 7

(Roberts, 2001, p. 1)

[email protected],[email protected],202.436.6354,Skype:linwells

Examples

• Terrorism

• NuclearProliferation

• CyberSecurity

• ClimateChange

• BorderSecurity


FourIndustrialRevolutions

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• 1st ~1780s:

• 2nd ~1870:

• 3rd~1969:

• 4th justbeginning:fusetechnologies“blurlinesbetweenphysical,digitalandbiologicalspheres”

Source:KlausSchwab,“TheFourthIndustrialRevolution:whatitmeans,howtorespond,”14January2016http://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/, accessedFebruary16,2016


4th IndustrialRevolution(4th IR)• Keydistinctionsbetween3rd &4threvolutions:– Velocityofchange,scope,andsystems-wideimpact• Massivelydisruptive,andaccelerating• Transformingmanagement,aswellasproductionanddistribution• Canprovideveryimportantcollectivebenefitstosociety,butalsonegativelyaffectmanyindividuals– Lossofjobsandpaceofsocialchange–Machinelearningandartificialintelligence

• Responses mustengagepublic-private,whole-of-society,andtrans-nationalstakeholders– Incomprehensive,integratedways


VelocityofTechChangeØ Ifafactor,e.g.computingpower/unitcost,doublesevery18mo,5yr

increaseis900%,10yr 10,000%,15yr ~100,000%

– Biotechevenfaster,roboticsubiquitous,nano poisedbreakout,energyimpactsareglobal

• - ThinkBRINE(bio-robo-info-nano-energy)+AdditiveManufacturingInteractionscomplicatethingsLinearprojectionsCAN’Twork

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Growth in Computing Power per Unit Cost

Capability doubles every 18 months Capability doubles every 24 months


U.S.ThirdOffsetStrategy(3rd OS)• Leveragesmanysimilartechnologiesas4IR• 5mainbuildingblocks:

– Learningmachines:

– Human-machinecollaboration:

– Advancedhuman-machinecombatteaming:

– Assistedhumanoperations:

– Autonomousweapons:

Focusedonpotentialadversarycapabilities,notjustintentions4/10/17 [email protected],[email protected],


ThirdOffsetStrategy(2)

• Goalof3rd OSisto“makehumansmoreeffectiveincombat”Muchincommonwith4thIR

– Inbothareaspeoplemustbeempoweredtoaddressmostseriouschallenges

– Techisimportant,butbothinvolveadaptionand,ideallyanticipation,across Organizations,People,andProcesses,aswellasTechnology

• NOTJUSTTECH


ConvergenceofCommercialTrendswillAffectC4ISR*

• VelocityofTechChange

• ExplosionofSensors—many-non-government

• CyberandEW—KineticandNon-KineticFires

• InfoSharing&Security

• DataVisualization/VirtualReality

• OODALoop&DecisionCycles

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*Command,Control,Communications,Computing,Intelligence,Surveillance,[email protected],[email protected],


ExplosionofSensors• OpenSourceISR-GIS

• UASs

• IV4(InfoVolume,Velocity,Veracity,Value)

• Mobile,Wearable

• InternetofThings(IoT)


CyberandEWConvergenceKinetic&Non-KineticFires

• ManeuverinElectromagneticSpectrum(EMS)Space– NavyElectromagneticManeuverWarfare(EMW)– ArmyCyberElectromagneticActivities(CEMA)• EWPlanning&ManagementTool(EWPMT)

–MarineCorpsCyberEWCoordinationCell(CEWCC)

– USAF• C4ISRImplications


InfoSharingandSecurity• InfoSharingRules• Alternativeapproachestocybersecurity– Bigdata– NRTanomalydetection– Supplychain,blockchain

• Majorpolicy,legal,moral,ethical,privacyissues

CommandandControl/Sensemaking/DecisionSupport

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Howtoachieve“UnityofAction”whenthere’sno“UnityofControl?”


DataVisualization/VirtualReality

18

GraphicsbySynglyphX


OODALoop&DecisionCycles• “Observe”and“Orient”phasesincreasinglyelectromagnetic

• “Decide”and“Act”supportedbyinformationprocessing

• CybercandominateOODAloopinanydomain

• Techchanges– Processingpower– Machinelearning– Sensorproliferation– Army2050battlefield—canyoumove?

• Speedofdecisions– “Man-on-the-loop,”vice“Man-in-the-loop”

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Imagecourtesysuccessing.com


CheapTechChallengesU.S.TacticalDominance

• EvolvingTech– AdditiveManufacturing—drones,EFPs– Nanotech—nanoexplosives andnanomaterials– Space-likecapabilities—GIS,ORS,AerialLayer– AI—convergenceoftechtomakecheap,widelyavailable,autonomousweapons

• ImplicationsforModernBattlefield– IrregularWarfare,ConventionalWarfare(Ground,Sea,Air,Space,Cyber)

• StrategicImplications—costofinterventionrises– “Small,smartandmany”*represent

excellentinvestmentsforadversaries– USmaybeunderinvestinginevolving4IRtechthat’schangingnatureofwarfare

4/10/17 20*TXHammes,JFQ81 [email protected],[email protected],202.436.6354,Skype:linwells

4th IRJob-RelatedSecurityIssues(1)• 4th IRcanraiseglobalincomesandimprovequalityoflives– Moreunequalanddisruptedlabormarkets– Lossofjobs,“low-skill/low-pay”and“high-skill/highpay”groups

– Societalinequalitiesandsocialtensions• Servicejobsparticularlyvulnerable toautomation– Servicesaresome80%ofdevelopedworldemployment,growingroleindevelopingeconomies

– McKinseyGlobalInstitute(MGI)2017study:• lessthan5percentofalloccupationscanbeautomatedentirely• “about60%ofalloccupationshaveatleast30%ofconstituentactivitiesthatcouldbeautomated.”[withpresenttech]


Job-RelatedSecurityImplications(2)• Impactslikelytobemoresevereinyouthbulgeareas– PartsofIslamicworld,SouthAsiaandsub-SaharanAfrica,plusmegacitiesandunder-servedpartsofdevelopedworld

– Pressuresformigration&radicalizationifNOentryleveljobs• Hencenostakeininternationalsystem

• Manytypesofsecurityproblems:– Impactofamillionrefugees onEuropein2015– Manytimesmorelikelyinfuture– Highpotentialfordomesticunrest,scapegoat-finding,radicalnationalismandprotectionism• Unlessgovernmentsandtheprivatesector“arereallyskillfulinmanagingthesechanges”-- trackrecordnotencouraging

4/10/17 22

TheEconomist hasbeenespeciallygoodinreportingonthesetopics


Job-RelatedSecurityImplications(3)• 4th IRchallengesarebeyond3rd OS’sintendedfocus– Unrestindeveloping(anddeveloped)world– Potentialthreatstoexistingsecuritystructures

• Political,socialandeconomicissuesthreatentruecenterofgravityoffutureconflicts:resilienceofpopulationsofengagednations

• Canchallengesocialcompacts

• Alsothreatenpossiblede-globalization*• Localproductionofmanufacturingandservices• Installednewenergyproductionisnowdominatedbylocal sources-- solar,wind,hydro,andfrackednaturalgas.

• Explosionofproductivityinurbanandindooragriculture• Voterangerovertradepacts• BalkanizationofInternet

*TXHammes,“3-DPrintingWillDisrupttheWorldinWaysWeCanBarelyImagine,”http://warontherocks.com/2015/12/3-d-printing-will-disrupt-the-world-in-ways-we-can-barely-imagine/


Reducing Pressures for Migration, Radicalization and Marginalization

Through “Collaborative Economy” Initiatives

The BROCADE Concept

Building Resilient Opportunities inCulturally Aligned, Diverse Environments

4/10/17 24


BROCADE Shift Focus from THREAT to

OpportunityProvidesaframeworkto:

- Buildresilienceinunder-servedcommunities

- Byreducingriskand

- Providingcollaborativeeconomicopportunities(“Peers,Inc.”model)

• Airbnbreached650,000bedsin4years

Applymulti-sectorapproaches thatintegratechangesinPeople,Organizations,Processes&Technology

“Makehopepossible,ratherthanfearconvincing”-- RaymondWilson

4/10/17 [email protected],[email protected],


Potential“Platforms”forBROCADE(the“Inc.”from“Peers,Inc.”)

HighEfficiencyUrbanAgriculture/Farming/FoodSecurityLocalProductionandLogistics:3-Dprinting,etc.EnergyandEnergyStorageCleanWaterInformationandCommunicationsTechnology(ICT):UbiquitousConnectivityviaSkyFi;InnovativeLearning;ConversationalUserInterfaces(CUI);IncludeAppropriateCybersecurityfromtheStart

Health:Telemedicine;Cheap,WidelyDeployableSanitation,EnvironmentalMedicine

LowCost,CulturallyAlignedSheltersHeatingandCoolingGovernance,Security,CommunityDesign&Management:Sensors;GeospatialInformationSystem(GIS)data;BlockchainsforSecureLandTitlesandTransparentTransactionsPublic-PrivatePartnerships/CooperationInnovativeFinancialArrangements:e.g.,M-Pesa,Micro-Loans


Region MENA,Sub-SaharanAfrica,UnderservedPeopleintheDevelopedWorld,etc.

5.AdjustasNeededandIterate

1.IdentifyHigh-LevelRegionalNeedsforIncreasedResilience

4.IntegratePlatformsandDeliverCapabilities 3.ProposeLocal

Solutions

PossibleProjects Community(separatenameforeachproject)

2.LocalizetoCommunities,ValidateNeeds

Applyframework tolocal conditionsbyintegratingseveral"platforms“todelivercapabilitiestomeetlocal needsthroughprojects

TransitioningBROCADE’s Strategyto Framework toLocallyFocusedProjects


GMU’sLargeRoleinBROCADE• LeadprojectinAppalachiawithShepherdU• Otherprojectsdevelopingin:– Morocco– Ghana– Japan– Philippines

• STAR-TIDEStechdemoatGMUSept12-15– NearJohnsonCenter– STAR-TIDES(www.star-tides.net)accumulatestechforBROCADE

• Joinus!4/10/17 [email protected],[email protected],


Converging4th IRTrends(1)• Trendscan’tbecontrolledbygovernments,onlyinfluenced–Mayneedto“restructureournationalsecuritystrategy,culture,andorganizationsaccordingly”• Howtodobetterwithforesight&strategicfutures?

• 4th IRwillaffectbusiness,government,andpeople– Challengeveryfeasibilityofgoverningby“systemsofpublicpolicyanddecision-making[that]evolvedalongsidetheSecondIndustrialRevolution”• “Whendecision-makershadtimetostudyaspecificissueanddevelopthenecessaryresponseorappropriateregulatoryframework”


Converging4th IRTrends(2)– Trendssupport:• Hybridizationofwarfare,• Empowerment ofindividualsandnon-stateactors(especiallythroughcyber,autonomousandbiologicalweapons),and• Furtherblurringoflinesbetweencombatantsandnon-combatants

– Impactlikelytobemostprofoundonpeople• Willchange“notonlywhatwedo,butalsowhoweare”• Privacyissueswillbekey,butalsobiotechandAIrevolutions

“whicharere-definingwhatitmeanstobehumanbypushingbackthecurrentthresholdsoflifespan,health,cognition,andcapabilities,willcompelustoredefineourmoralandethicalboundaries”


Do4th IRIssuesMeetWickedProblemsCriteria?

• Nodefinitiveproblemstatement:broaddisagreementonwhat‘theproblem’is

• Anopen-endedsearchforsolutions—nostoppingrule• Stakeholderschampionalternativesolutionsandcompetewithoneanother

• Constraintsareconstantlychanging– Paceoftechnology– Economicimpactsandresourceavailability– Numerousinterestedpartieschangetheproblem-solvingrules

• Interactivelycomplex—neediterativeapproaches• Theproblem-solverhasnorighttobewrong


4th IRChallengesforDecision-Makers• Projectionsrangefrompessimistictooptimistic– Insufficientdatanow formajorpublicpolicydecisions

• Don’tacceptpassively:shape “afuturethatreflectscommonobjectivesandvalues”

• Worktodevelopcomprehensiveview ofhowtechisaffectingourlivesandallourenvironments

• Breakfreeoflinearthinking—”thereisnobox”– Thinkstrategicallytoturnthreatsintoopportunities– SuchasDiamandis &KotlerAbundance– Innovate!Improve!Repeat!4/10/17 [email protected],[email protected],202.436.6354,Skype:linwells

ImplicationsforResearch• Researchopportunitiesinmanyareas– C4I&Cyber,Engineering,Science,ConflictAnalysisandResolution,PublicPolicy,alsoBusiness&Education

– FocusatPolicy-Technology-Sociology-Economy interface• PromotechangeinhowOrganizations,People,ProcessesandTechnologycometogether– Linksecurityandsustainabilitygoals,public-private,trans-nationalmechanisms&regionalcooperation

• OrganizationsinEuropeandtheGulfarebuildingknowledgedevelopmentresourcecenterswith– Analytics&visualizationcomponent– Trainingmodulesandavibrantcommunityofinterest

• Allcouldbetiedtogether.Whowilllead?4/10/17 [email protected],[email protected],202.436.6354,Skype:linwells

QuestionsforStudents

• Networkedminds

• Whatelse?4/10/17 34

Whattechnologieswillyourchildrenusetobefuddleyouthewayyoubefuddleyouparents?Perhaps:

• Cyborgization ofthehumanbody

• Trans-generationalperceptiondifferences

• Genomemodification


QUESTIONS?

[email protected]@gmail.com

Skype:linwellsU.S.cell+1202.436.6354

4/10/17 35

Documents

Wicked Problems: National Security Implications of the ... · problem • Every solution to a wicked problem is a one-shot operation • Every wicked problem is essentially unique