Where are we? Where have we been? Where do we go from here?

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Where are we?

Where have we been?

Where do we go from here?

1Adaptive Integrated Framework (AIF): a new methodology for managing impacts of multiple stressors in coastal ecosystems(aka the Saginaw Bay Multiple Stressors Project)

5 year, $3.76 million grantNOAA Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research

NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research LaboratoryMichigan State UniversityUniversity of MichiganUniversity of AkronLimno-Tech, Inc.Western Michigan UniversityMichigan Department of Natural ResourcesMichigan Department of Environmental Quality

Also featuringWayne StatePurdueCase WesternDukeEastern MIMichigan Department of Natural Resources and the Environment

2And now, a word from your sponsorBeth Turner your friendly neighborhood program managerTaking over from Larry Pugh, enjoying a well-earned retirementAlso managing Ecological Forecasting program in Lake Erie

34CSCOR Reporting RequirementsGreater emphasis on reporting both research outputs and management outcomesCSCOR compiles annual report that draws on all projects and their outputs and outcomesForms at http://www.cop.noaa.gov/opportunities/grants/reporting_requirements.html Explanation at http://www.cop.noaa.gov/opportunities/grants/outcomes.html5Research OutputsOutputs are typical results of researchNew fundamental or applied knowledge Scientific publications Patents New methods and technology New or advanced tools such as models, biomarkers, etc. Workshops Presentations Outreach products (e.g. website or newsletter articles) 6Research OutcomesOutcomes are utilization or adoption of outputsManagement application or adoption of: New fundamental or applied knowledge New or improved skills Information from publications, workshops, seminars, outreach products New or improved methods or technology New or advanced tools Societal condition improved due to management action resulting from output: Improved water quality Lower frequency of harmful algal blooms Reduced hypoxic zone area Improved sustainability of fisheries

7Help Me Help You(please!)Talk to me Im very nosy!Upcoming meetings, workshops, presentationsPublications (pub numbers?)Interactions with managers or stakeholdersVisit DCNOAA seminar seriesElizabeth.turner@noaa.gov603-862-4680THANK YOU!8

5 Year ProjectFirst funding ~ July 2007First PI meeting December 2007Organization, Modeling, Light field year 2008First real field year 2009Second field year 2010Last funding ~ spring 2011$$$This is where we are, approximately9Fishery Notes from First PI Meeting

we also recognized that while our project involves a number of researchers and spans five years, there is still some limit to aspects which we can explore. Thus, our work will continue to focus on (but not be limited to) the two species constituting the historically most important fisheries in Saginaw Bay, walleye and yellow perch.

it is not only important for management agencies to establish predictive links between particular actions and fish production. Rather, it is also beneficial for management agencies to be equipped with a qualitative understanding of processes affecting fish productions. As such, we plan to structure our field and modeling efforts to facilitate both prediction and understanding.

10Water Quality Notes from First PI Meeting

We want to look at stressors for which we have predictive capabilities and management options, P load is the most obvious stressor to fit this description.

The hypothesis is that total chlorophyll a is the same for Sag Bay, but there has been a shift from pelagic to benthic due to dreissenids (making more P available, diverting it to nearshore).

we are concerned about HABs both because they produce toxins (human health issue) and are unpalatable to grazers.

phytoplankton composition is also important because certain phytoplankton groups will be better food for zooplankton and thus have an impact on fish production.

We may be able to predict muck on shoreline well if we have data on light , temperature , wind and currents , and water level

We are still struggling with how to quantify benthic algae as well as muck no one in our group has done it. Divers, towed benthic camera, a flying fish , flyovers if water clarity is sufficient.11Where Have We Been?Dreissenid dominated systemP shunted, routed to benthic algae Cladophora? Spirogyra?Phytoplankton shift to cyanobacteriaAlewife Walleye, Yellow Perch, GrowthGLWQA P targets met? Relevant?We started this project with the premise that Saginaw Bay was dreissenid dominated system. Evidence collected so far suggests that dreissenid densities are way down. We were also unsure of whether the dominant benthic algae constituting the muck was Cladophora or Spirogyra. Accounts from the early 90s suggested Spirogyra was important.12

13

A review of notes from the 1970s early 1990s from the Bay City Recreation Area indicates that beach muck was a nearly continual problem during that time. This differs from our premise when we began this project that nuisance beach deposits disappeared following the implementation of P controls in the late 70s and reappeared following the mussel invasion of the early 90s. We probably got this ideas because it seems to be the prevailing wisdom around the Great Lakes, and may be true in other areas.14

Data courtesy of Tom NalepaMussels Measured mussel densities are much lower than in the 90s.15

Saginaw River Annual TP LoadsPartial-pooling across years using a Bayesian hierarchical modelPrepared by Yoonkyung Cha Duke UniversityEstimates of Saginaw River TP loads indicate a low probability that the Saginaw River alone is meeting the 440 tonne/year target.1617P ( annual load > 440 metric tons / yr )

17Our probabilistic approach for load estimation allows the assessment of uncertainty for this imprecise measure.

Inner Saginaw Bay Annual TP Budget (tonnes/yr) pre-control (1968-1978, orange), post- control (1979-1990, blue), post-invasion (1991-2008, green)

Estimates of net TP sedimentation in Saginaw Bay indicate an increase with the mussel invasion and a consequent decrease in TP exported to Lake Huron. The ratio of net sedimentation to input is positively related to measured mussel densities.18

Dead Zone?Saginaw Bay 'dead zone' may explain muck problemsThursday, July 23, 2009, 8:20 AM Bay City TimesBut there's a spot that's just a few feet deeper, which fishermen know well.They call it the Black Hole.Is it the dead zone, or is the oxygen-deprived water somewhere else, caused by an eddy in the bay's currents?Mlive.com

Site of interest: Saginaw BayEutrophicShallow: mean depth 5mHorizontally well-mixed by strong winds (Skubinna et al., 1995)Vertically Isothermal (Vanderploeg et al., 2008)

OuterInner

Nathan Hawley 200920Data from this project indicate periodic stratification in the inner bay, which differs from our previous belief that the water was always vertically well-mixed.

Saginaw Bay Recon BuoyBottom Conditions 11.6 m depthA recon buoy deployed in the deep area of the inner bay (2010) revealed periodic, short-duration dips in the DO at the bottom, but no hypoxia. In mid August a pulse of cold oxygenated water, presumably from the outer bay, for several weeks. This observation is consistent with Nathans data from 2009 and suggests that this phenomenon may occur regularly during the summer. It is interesting to speculate whether or not very low oxygen conditions might occur in the absence of this pulse of cold, outer-bay water.21Goals (where do we go from here?)Comprehensive update from project participantsData inventory and comprehensive data basePriorities for work next yearStakeholder workshopEngage with managers and develop list of modeling scenarios that will support management decisions.Discuss the AIF that was a goal of this project in terms of successes, failures, lessons learnedCommunication into the future

AIF Good CommunicationEffective communication with the group is an ongoing challenge. We are big and diffuse, stretched fairly thin, and everyone is suffering from information overload.23Leftover logisticsDinnerHeidi visit Other things to cover?