Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
What We Know (or think we know) About The Economic Impact of COVID-19
Mike AlexanderDirector, Center for Livable Communities, Atlanta Regional [email protected]
Mike CarnathanSenior Manager Research & Analytics, Atlanta Regional [email protected]
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
Before We Talk Economy, Let’s Take Quick Look at the Public Health Side of Things!
C
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+ www.33n.atlantaregional.com
A
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
Key Indicators (Thru July 11)
https://33n.atlantaregional.com/
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
Cases are Trending Up
https://atlantaregional.shinyapps.io/COVID19/
Daily New Confirmed Cases, 7-Day Moving Average by MSA
Atlanta
Non-Metro
FLT
GWN
DK
COBB
CLY
A
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
Hospitalizations Are Now Trending Up Too…
https://amberschmidtkephd.substack.com/p/the-sunday-week- in-review-
19jul2020?r=789uq&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=copy
C
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
How Are We Behaving?
C
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
Georgia Restaurant Bookings Down since June 22C
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
Reopening…
Source: Safegraph (Weekly Pattern))
https://public.tableau.com/profile/arcresearchanalytics#!/vizhome/WeeklyPattern/WeeklyPattern
A
C
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
Commercial Mortgages: Delinquencies Up
Commerical Loan Deliquency Rates by Property Type
Property Type Jan-20 Jun-20
Accomodation 1.50% 24.30%
Retail 3.80% 18.10%
Multifamily 2.00% 3.30%
Office 1.90% 2.70%
Industrial 1.60% 1.60%
Overall 2.10% 10.30%
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mortgage-delinquencies/
A
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
What’s Happening in Atlanta?
A
C
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
Just Google It
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
San
Fra
ncis
co
Sa
n J
ose
Oa
kla
nd
Au
stin
Was
hin
gto
n
Mia
mi
Seat
tle
Los
Ang
eles
Sa
n A
nto
nio
Bo
sto
n
Hou
sto
n
Ne
w Y
ork
Cit
y
Phoe
nix
Atl
anta
Sa
n D
iego
Ral
eigh
El P
aso
Ho
no
lulu
Ne
w O
rle
ans
Tam
pa
Las
Veg
as
Tucs
on
Dal
las
Min
nea
polis
Fort
Wor
th
Ch
arl
ott
e
Sacr
am
ento
Jack
son
vill
e
Alb
uq
ue
rqu
e
Port
lan
d
Nas
hvill
e
Ph
ila
de
lph
ia
Den
ver
Chic
ago
Co
lum
bu
s
Vir
gini
a B
each
Ba
ltim
ore
Mem
phis
Sa
lt L
ak
e C
ity
Fre
sno
Ba
kers
fie
ld
Om
aha
Clev
elan
d
Lou
isvi
lle
Okl
aho
ma
City
Milw
auke
e
Tuls
a
Boi
se
Colo
rado
Spr
ings
Wic
hit
a
De
tro
it
Kan
sas
Cit
y
Ind
ian
ap
olis
% Change in Time Away From Home (Compared to January)
Source: Opportunity Insights (Google COVID Mobility Reports)
A
C
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
What We Are Thinking
Source: Ipsos
A
C
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
So, About the Economy…
A
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
Friday, May 8. Worst Economic Day In History…A
C
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
The COVID-19 recession is over. Well after the pandemic, academic economists on the business cycle dating committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research will peg February 2020 as the peak of the last expansion and May 2020 as the nadir of this recession. The three-month downturn—March, April and May—will be the shortest in recession-dating history since prior to the Civil War. But it will be among the most severe. Real GDP is expected to decline by at least 12% peak to trough between the fourth quarter of 2019 and the second quarter of 2020. This is approximately three times the peak-to-trough decline in GDP during the financial crisis.
https://www.economy.com/economicview/analysis/379973
Indeed, it would be disconcerting if the takeaway for lawmakers from the upturn in the economy is that the recovery is off and running and does not need any additional fiscal support. That would be a potentially grievous error, as demonstrated by a simulation of Moody’s Analytics’ model of the macroeconomy under the assumption that lawmakers call it a day and fail to provide additional help: After a bounce in GDP and jobs in the third quarter driven by the business reopenings, the economy suffers a double-dip recession in the second half of the year.
U.S. Macro Outlook: The Recession Is Over
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/06/upshot/coronavirus-economic-
crisis.html?searchResultPosition=3
But there are clear signs that the collapse of economic activity has set in motion problems that will play out over many months, or maybe many years. If not contained, they could cause human misery on a mass scale and create lasting scars for families.
“There’s a lot of denial here, as there was in the 1930s,”The result is that what started as a disruption to the supply side of the economy has metastasized into a collapse of the demand side,
It is against this backdrop that some of the most influential — and fiscally conservative — voices in economic policy are saying that further aggressive spending is needed to prevent this shock from causing long-lasting damage to the economy.
A
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
A
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
A
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
April Was a Rough Month…A
C
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
Five years of Jobs Gains Wiped Out…
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
Janu
ary-
10
Apr
il-10
July
-10
Oct
ob
er-
10
Janu
ary-
11
Apr
il-11
July
-11
Oct
ober
-11
Janu
ary-
12
Apr
il-12
July
-12
Oct
ober
-12
Janu
ary-
13
Apr
il-13
July
-13
Oct
ober
-13
Janu
ary-
14
Apr
il-14
July
-14
Oct
ober
-14
Janu
ary-
15
Apr
il-15
July
-15
Oct
ober
-15
Janu
ary-
16
Apr
il-16
July
-16
Oct
ober
-16
Janu
ary-
17
Apr
il-17
July
-17
Oct
ob
er-
17
Janu
ary-
18
Apr
il-18
July
-18
Oct
ob
er-
18
Janu
ary-
19
Apr
il-19
July
-19
Oct
ob
er-
19
Janu
ary-
20
Apr
il-20
Metro Atlanta: Total Employment - 2010 - Current
A
C
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
Layoffs are WERE Declining…
Source: GA DOL
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
03/07/202003/14/202003/21/202003/28/202004/04/202004/11/202004/18/202004/25/202005/02/202005/09/202005/16/2020 5/23/2020 5/30/2020 06/06/202006/13/2020 6/20/2020 6/27/2020 7/4/2020 7/11/2020
UI Claims
A
C
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
Newly Unemployed Concentrated Where You Think They Are…
Source: GA DOL
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims by Industry
Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation and Warehousing Information
Real Estate Prof, Sci and Tech Administrative/Wast Mgmt Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Ent, Rec Accomm/Food Services Other Services (Not Pub Admin)
Top 5 Most Impacted Industries:
• Arts/Entertainment
• Food/Accommodation
• Other Services
• Health Care
• Retail
C
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
Local Government Revenues Taking A Hit
Source: Georgia Department of Revenue, “Sales Tax Commodity Report,” Accessed July 7, 2020, via georgiadata.org
-30.0%
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
Cherokee Clayton Cobb DeKalb Douglas Fayette Fulton Gwinnett Henry Rockdale
Year over Year Percent Change in Sales Tax Distributions
May-May June-June
A
C
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
Small Businesses Are Beginning To Close Again…
Source: Opportunity Insights (Womply) https://tracktherecovery.org/
A
C
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
% Change in Small Biz Open Compared to January
How Metro Atlanta Compares: Small Business Health
Source: Opportunity Insights (Womply)
A
C
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
Consumer Spending Down
Source: Opportunity Insights (Affinity Solutions)
A
C
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
How Metro Atlanta Compares: Consumer Spending
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
Consumer Spending By Major Metro% Change Comapred to January (7-day Moving Average)
Source: Opportunity Insights (Affinity Solutions)
A
C
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
Low-Income Workers Taking a Beating…
Source: Opportunity Insights (Earnin & Homebase)
A
C
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
How Metro Atlanta Compares: Low-Income Employment
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
Bo
sto
n
New
Orl
eans
San
Fra
nci
sco
New
Yor
k Ci
ty
Det
roit
Las
Veg
as
Was
hing
ton
Ho
no
lulu
San
Die
go
Atl
anta
Phila
delp
hia
Los
An
gele
s
Alb
uque
rqu
e
Seat
tle
Mia
mi
Nas
hvill
e
Ral
eig
h
Chic
ago
San
Jose
Sacr
amen
to
Lou
isv
ille
Char
lott
e
Fre
sno
Vir
gini
a Be
ach
Port
lan
d
Den
ver
Bak
ersf
ield
Oa
kla
nd
Ta
mp
a
Jack
sonv
ille
Min
nea
pol
is
Co
lum
bu
s
El P
aso
Clev
elan
d
Wic
hit
a
Aus
tin
Ind
iana
pol
is
San
An
ton
io
Milw
auke
e
Dal
las
Mem
ph
is
Phoe
nix
Colo
rado
Spr
ings
Bo
ise
Tucs
on
Fo
rt W
ort
h
Ka
nsa
s C
ity
Ho
ust
on
Tu
lsa
Bal
tim
ore
Sal
t La
ke C
ity
Om
aha
Okl
aho
ma
City
% Change in Employment among Low-Income Workers
Source: Opportunity Insights (Earnin & Homebase)
A
C
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
Low-Income Employment Declining Everywhere
Source: Opportunity
Insights (Affinity
Solutions)
A
C
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
Percent of Threatened Workers Percent of People of ColorPercent of Low-BirthWeight BirthsPercent Lacking Health InsurancePercent in Poverty
Threatened Workers Spatial DisparitiesA
C
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
It’s About People
A
C
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
Businesses Owned By Persons Of Color & Immigrants Disproportionately Suffering
A
C
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
Racial Disparities Laid Bare By COVID: Loss of Employment
49.0%
39.5%
65.5%
36.4%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
Hispanic or Latino (may be of any race) White alone, not Hispanic Black alone, not Hispanic Asian alone, not Hispanic
Percentage of At Least one Household Member Losing Employment since March 13 (Metro Atlanta)
Source: Census Household Pulse Survey, June 29
A
C
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
Racial Disparities Laid Bare By COVID: Housing Insecurity
Source: Census Household Pulse Survey, June 29
45.5%
30.2%
35.5%
30.5%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
Hispanic or Latino (may be of any race) White alone, not Hispanic Black alone, not Hispanic Asian alone, not Hispanic
Percent of Renters (paying rent) With No or Slight Confidence of Paying Next Month's Rent (Georgia)
A
C
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+Measure Definition: Percent of adults who missed last month’s rent or mortgage payment or who have slight or no confidence that their household can pay next month’s rent or mortgage on time.
https://www.census.gov/data-tools/demo/hhp/#/table?measures=HIRA
C
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+Measure Definition: Percent of adults who missed last month’s rent or mortgage payment or who have slight or no confidence that their household can pay next month’s rent or mortgage on time.
https://www.census.gov/data-tools/demo/hhp/#/table?measures=HIRA
C
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
7.3%
4.3%
13.1%
5.4%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Hispanic or Latino (may be of any race) White alone, not Hispanic Black alone, not Hispanic Asian alone, not Hispanic
Percentage Who Indicated That They "Sometimes" or "Often" Did Not Have Enough To Eat Last Week
Racial Disparities Laid Bare By COVID: Food Insecurity
Source: Census Household Pulse Survey, June 29
A
C
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
Racial Disparities Laid Bare By COVID: Distance Learning
Source: Census Household Pulse Survey, June 29
90.7%
95.8%
82.9%
98.8%
94.3%91.5% 92.6%
69.5%
98.8%
94.3%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Hispanic or Latino (may be of any race) White alone, not Hispanic Black alone, not Hispanic Asian alone, not Hispanic Two or more races + Other races, notHispanic
Availability of Computer or Internet for Educational Purposes (Metro Atlanta)
Device Avaiable Internet Available
A
C
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
McKinsey: Impacts on EducationA
C
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-sector/our-insights/covid-19-and-
student-learning-in-the-united-states-the-hurt-could-last-a-lifetime
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
McKinsey: Impacts on EducationA
C
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-sector/our-insights/covid-19-and-student-learning-in-the-united-states-the-hurt-could-last-a-lifetime
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
People of Color More Likely to Contract COVID… Regardless of Age
A
C
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
Racial/Ethnic Composition of Neighborhoods With Highest Concentration of Threatened Workers* (100 highest)
Source: American Community Survey; LEHD
* For this, we took the 100 census tracts with the highest concentrations of workers employed in the Food/Accommodation and Arts/Entertainment industries and analyzed those tracts racial/ethnic composition
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
# Civilian non-inst pop, no health insurance,2017
Black Populations White Populations Hispanic Populations
100 Most Economically-Vulnerable Areas All Other Areas
A
C
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
So Where are we Now?
A
C
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
Consensus?
A
C
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
Mild case
Scenario
500.4
jobs lost
-12.5% quarterly
-$26.5 income lost
Severe case
Scenario
526.8
jobs lost
-11.8% quarterly
-$27.7 income lost
Critical case
Scenario
538.4
jobs lost
-13.9% quarterly
-$28.3 income lost
Employment (in Thousands, 2020 Q1-Q4)
Gross Domestic Product (Percent change, Peak 2020 Q2)
Disposable Personal Income (in Bil of Current $s, 2020 Q1-Q4)
Economic Outlook(s)
A
CARC COVID Forecast Scenarios (April)
Moody’s Atlanta MSA (May)
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
The Monthly Jobs Calculator A MONTH LATERhttps://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/calculator
Georgia average approximately
7000 new jobs per month from
2010 to 2019 (April)
Georgia lost -492110 YoY April
2019 to April 2020
A
C
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
Another Take…
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-sector/our-
insights/us-small-business-recovery-after-the-covid-19-
crisis?cid=other-eml-onp-mip-
mck&hlkid=9c4f80e4c1664aada2671764270d8cfa&hctky=
11588162&hdpid=05d06585-203d-4058-9f9b-
2ee659eb189bc
A
C
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
Summing UpOther things we’re hearing and thinking about:
• Food Insecurity: Summer has been challenging for kids that rely on school for food.
• Child-Care: One in four parents indicated they had to change their work situation significantly due to child care challenges. This was BEFORE the pandemic
• Public Education: See McKinsey and another recent study showed a 3.5 to 5 percentage point drop in reading and math proficiency due to school closures/distance learning
• Housing insecurity: Most see a “tsunami” of evictions coming
• Transportation: Public transportation and ride-sharing ridership has suffered
• Arts: A little more than 50% of Arts organizations (small sample) report concerns of being able to survive the economic downturn.
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
Perspectives About Five Years from Now…“The shift towards remote work can potentially help better-educated senior citizens the most, enabling them to perform many jobs from the comfort of their homes or to participate in the so-called gig economy.”
- Mauro Guillén, Professor, Wharton School; Author, 2030: How Today’s Biggest Trends Will Collide and Reshape the Future of Everything
“In five years, many of us will still be working from office settings, but we will do so less often, with trepidation” - Melissa Gregg, Chief technologist, User Experience and Sustainability for Client Computing, Intel
“This is the time to build a new social contract between business and society, and to rebuild the economy in a more inclusive , equitable, and regenerative way.”
- Anthea Kelsick, Co-CEO, B Lab US and Canada
“Be prepared to see entirely new planned communities pop up that are built with the intention of balancing the demand for ope n space with the need for urban amenities.”
- Steve Nygren, Founder and CEO, Serenbe
“The pandemic (hopefully) has given us urgency to value and protect low-wage work in America in a whole new way.”- Ai-Jen Poo, Director, National Domestic Workers Alliance
“The next five years need to be a time of drastic reengineering of our systems and structures to eliminate health disparities and know that in crisis we have the ability to ensure that resources and care are allocated equitably.”
- Esther Choo, Associate Professor, Center for Policy & Research in Emergency Medicine, Oregon Health & Science University
https://qz.com/is/new-normal/
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
Explore For Yourself! And Questions….
https://neighborhoodnexus.org/covid19/ www.33n.atlantaregional.com
reg
ion
al i
mpac
t +
lo
cal
rel
evan
ce
+
Raj Chetty
http://www.rajchetty.com/
