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“What use could this company make of an electric toy? [the telephone]” William Orton, President, Western Union. “I think there is a world for maybe five computers.” Thomas Watson, Chair IBM, 1943. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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“What use could this company make of an electric toy? [the telephone]”
William Orton, President, Western Union
“We don’t like their sound and guitar music is on the way out”
Decca Recording regarding the Beatles, 1962
“I think there is a world for maybe five computers.”
Thomas Watson, Chair IBM, 1943
RETIREMENT INCOME
PLANNING FOR TOMORROW
THE NEXT “BIG THING”
Walter UpdegraveDeena KatzMitch Anthony Lewis WalkerDonald G. MacGregorMitch AnthonyDr. Matthew GreenwaldJim C. OtarProf. Cynthia SaltzmanRobert CurtisApril K. CaudillProf. Moshe A. MilevskyAnna AbaimovaHarold EvenskyProf. Laurence BoothWilliam P. BengenRobert KreitlerLou StanasolovichRoxanne AlexanderMichael AndersonDouglas HeadProf. Roger G. IbbotsonMichael C. HenkelPeng Chen
WHAT DO OUR CLIENTS WANT?
HOW DO THEY PLAN ON GETTING
THERE?
Leaping tall buildings in a single bound is nice but can you outperform the S&P index?
THE SOPHISTICATES
THE MASSES
ARE THEY “RATIONAL”?
Say, what’s a mountain goat doing way up here in a cloud
bank?
NO!
“Only 24% of Americans Fear
Outliving Savings”
Financial Advisor
One baby boomer will turn 59 1/2 every seven seconds between 2005 and 2025.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR REETIREMENT INCOME
PLANNING?
TROUBLE
CASH FLOW STRATEGY: CLEARING
THE HURDLES
We must take into consideration the primary risk factors that can hobble an otherwise thoughtfully crafted solution.
Once the risk factors are enunciated, practitioners have a set of criteria against which they may test proposed product and strategy solutions.
MORTALITY REALITY
LONGEVITY
Probability of a 65-year-old living to various ages
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105
MaleFemaleAt least one spouse
Age
78 81 86
85 88 91
91 93 96
Pro
bab
ilit
y
86
91
MORTALITY REALITY
HEALTH
Squaring The CurveSquaring The Curve
0
2
4
6
8
10
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100AGE
PerfectPerfect
DeatDeathh
Health Health StatusStatus
SquaredSquared
Traditional
MORTALITY REALITY
INFLATION
• Unanticipated inflation is a greater risk factor for the retired than it is for the rest of the population
• The CPI-E (for the elderly), the retiree inflation index outpaced the regular CPI during the last 20 years by almost 1% per year.
MORTALITY REALITY
VOLATILITY & LUCK
90% “FOR SURE”
MONTE CARLO TO THE
RESCUE
THE TRADITIONAL
SOLUTION
THE “INCOME” PORTFOLIO
Dividends and Interest The
paycheck syndrome
MYTH I’m Retired so I need...
MRS BOONE NEEDS 5% CASH FLOW
Bond Cash Flow Stock Cash Flow TotalAllocation from Bonds Allocation from Stock Cash Flow
100% 7% 0% 0% 7%90% 6.3% 10 0.3 6.8%80% 5.6% 20 0.6 6.2%70% 4.9% 30 0.9 5.8%60% 4.2% 40 1.2 5.4%50% 3.5% 50 1.5 5.0%40% 2.8% 60 1.8 4.6%
CASH FLOW vs.
REAL INCOME
NOMINAL
REAL
-$4,000.00
-$3,000.00
-$2,000.00
-$1,000.00
$0.00
$1,000.00
$2,000.00
$3,000.00
$4,000.00
$5,000.00
$6,000.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
“INCOME PORTFOLIO”
Fidelity Intermediate
Bond
Fidelity Intermediate & Vanguard S&P
“TOTAL RETURN”
“EXCESS”ANNUAL CASH FLOW
I’m poor!
I’m rich!
$100,000.00
$110,000.00
$120,000.00
$130,000.00
$140,000.00
$150,000.00
$160,000.00
$170,000.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
PORTFOLIO VALUE
“INCOME PORTFOLIO”
“TOTAL RETURN”
CLIENT NEEDS
An effective strategy must meet our clients' Financial and Behavioral Needs.
• Cash flow (as from total-return portfolios) vs. Income (as in dividends and interest)
• Consistent cash flow
• Real cash flow
• Tax and expense efficiency
CLIENT NEEDS - FINANCIAL
CLIENT NEEDS - BEHAVIORAL
• Paychecks are consistent• Paychecks are market independent• The source of paychecks is visible and
considered reliable• Clients understand paychecks; they
need to understand their cash flow strategy
• Separate pockets.
SUCCESSFUL INVESTORS DO NOT
AVOID RISK,
THEY MANAGE IT!
THE E&K CASH FLOW STRATEGY
BREAKING THE PAYCHECK SYNDROME
THE TOTAL
PORTFOLIO
CASH FLOW RESERVE
THE INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO
CASH FLOW RESERVE
THE INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO
2 YEARS CASH FLOW
5 YEARS LUMP SUM
BALANCE OF PORTFOLIO
REINVESTMENT OF ALL INTEREST & DIVIDENDS
ADJUSTED AS NECESSARY FOR OPPORTUNITY COSTS
CASH FLOW RESERVE
THE INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO
PERSONAL CHECKING ACCOUNT
Regular Monthly
Payments
the “PAY CHECK”
Rebalance
Refill
DOES IT ADDRESS THE
CLIENT’S NEEDS?
As the reserve requirement is reviewed regularly (in our practice the review is quarterly), it’s quite easy to increase the reserves to adjust for inflation. The strategy also provides the flexibility to increase the reserve by variable amounts to reflect an inflation factor unique to each client.
Purchasing Power Risk
By providing significant control over the timing of investment liquidations, most cash flow related volatility drain can be eliminated.
Volatility
The strategy provides extraordinary flexibility in meeting the unique and changing needs of real clients.
• Tendency for excess reserves• Variable needs• Unanticipated needs• Tax management opportunities• Minimize transactions & related costs
Financial Flexibility
It manages the paycheck syndrome
• Cash flow is consistent • It is independent of market volatility• The source is visible and reliable • Clients understand the strategy• It frames the accounts in a manner
consistent with a client’s separate-pocket mentality
Client Needs/Behavioral
CASE STUDY
5% Real Cash Flow
$40,000
DOES IT WORK?
1987
2000 -2001
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
TEST OF WITHDRAWL STRATEGIES
INITIAL INVESTMENT - $1,000,000INITIAL WITHDRAWAL - 4 1/2%
BOND PORTFOLIO
50% / 50% PORTFOLIO
E&K-S PORTFOLIO
E&K CASH FLOW STRATEGY