Western Water Supply&

NWS Water Resources

Kevin Werner, Lisa Holts, Drew Peterson, CBRFCAndrew Murray, WRHDon Laurine, NWRFC

Jay Breidenbach, WFO BoiseAlan Takamoto, Scott Staggs, CNRFC

Ross Wolford, MBRFCTony Anderson, ABRFCPaul McKee, WGRFC

Jim Noel, OHRFCMary Mullusky, OCWWS

Outline

• Site Overview

• Future Plans

NWS Western Water Supply /Water Resources Outlook

2008 version 2009 version:www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater

• Easy to understand• Meaningful• Accessible from forecasts• Dynamically generated plots from database

Data VisualizationExamine and get a feel for the data.Are there patterns in the data?• Historical• Streamflow Histogram• Scatterplot

Examine through lead time or water year. Are some data sources better than others? Are forecasts improving over time?• Mean Absolute Error• Root Mean Square Error• Root Mean Squared Error Skill Score

Error and Skill Score

Forecast Uncertainty

Do the forecast track extreme years? Are forecasts improved with lead time?• Probability of Detection• False Alarm Rate• Contingency Table

Categorical

How does the basin act from year to year? Is there a general trend?• Lag -1 Climate Variability

Climate Variability

Examine the forecast exceedance values.Are the bounds too high or too low?• Rank Histogram

• Dynamic– Graph changes on click– Mouse-over displays info about graph

• Threshold– Default is Climatology / Historical

Average (KAF)

• Graph Options– Any Combination of Options– Different options based on

statistic chosen

• Early Verification Successes:• First systematic look at water supply

forecast verification• CBRFC using to drive developments

for water supply forecast program• Customers using to inform decisions

and validate forecasts

•ESP reforecasts made over 1980-2005 with no forecaster intervention•Compared to archived official forecasts and tools•Suggests well calibrated continuous RFC models could be the foundation of water supply forecast system•Important implications for future of water supply forecast process

KeyVerificationResult #1:

ESP generally outperforms all other

forecasts

•Reasons not well understood•2000s have been drier than previous years•Forecasters have increasingly leveraged ESP

KeyVerificationResult #2:

Forecasts have generally improved in recent years

1992-2000

2001-2008

KeyVerificationResult #3:

Categorical skill is near perfect for low years but

not so good for high years

Below

Above

CBRFC Efforts

0.1oF / Year4oF Change by 2050

- 0.5%/ Year- 0.5% Change

by 2011

- 0.5%/ Year- 0.5%*4 Change

by 2015

Yearly

Monthly

Spaghetti Box

Climate Change Scenarios

Sortable

Future DirectionsClimate Change

Scenarios

Short Range Hydrologic Scenarios

Forecast Ensemble Adjustment

Web Site Improvements

Link to Drought Services

Enhanced Ensemble Services for drought and water resources

Leverage monthly / seasonal precipitation

Expanded ESP verification

Water Supply Tools

Water Resource Tools

Map

Map

Forecasts

Outlook

Ensemble Forecasts

Verification

Verification

Climate Change

Data

Data

About

Flood Risk-3 months-Weekly

Accumulate Over Time:-Months-Seasons-Year

Risk of Low Flow:-Daily mean-Week mean-Month mean

Peak Flow:-Flow-Time to peak

Time Domain:-Start-End

Future Steps

- Spring strategy meeting for developers - Possible developments: - Revisit database schema and identify new datasets needed - Identify new WRO capabilities such as including forecast streamflow percentile on map, ESP verification, conversions to mean daily flow, gridded monthly NCDC precipitation, etc - How to incorporate new items and make it more SIMPLE at the same time - Solicit / engage user community for feedback, requirements, etc.

Contact

www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater

Questions:

Lisa Holts, Kevin Werner (CBRFC)

Suggestions/Comments:

Alan Haynes, Alan Takamoto, Scott Staggs, (CNRFC)