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USDFRC U.S. Dairy Forage Research Center U.S. Dairy Forage Research Center USDA, Agricultural Research Service USDA, Agricultural Research Service Neal Martin, Dan Putnam, Neal Martin, Dan Putnam, Glenn Glenn Shewmaker Shewmaker and Dan and Dan Undersander Undersander Worlds Forage Analysis Worlds Forage Analysis Superbowl Superbowl - - 2004 2004 Seminar, Madison, WI Seminar, Madison, WI Western Alfalfa & Corn Silage Western Alfalfa & Corn Silage Production: Regional Perspective Production: Regional Perspective

Western Alfalfa & Corn Silage Production: Regional Perspective · Production: Regional Perspective. USDFRC Seminar Outline ... 200,000 AF Transfer from IID to SD—largest Ag-Urban

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U.S. Dairy Forage Research CenterU.S. Dairy Forage Research CenterUSDA, Agricultural Research ServiceUSDA, Agricultural Research Service

Neal Martin, Dan Putnam, Neal Martin, Dan Putnam, Glenn Glenn ShewmakerShewmaker and Dan and Dan

UndersanderUndersander

Worlds Forage Analysis Worlds Forage Analysis SuperbowlSuperbowl--2004 2004 Seminar, Madison, WISeminar, Madison, WI

Western Alfalfa & Corn Silage Western Alfalfa & Corn Silage Production: Regional PerspectiveProduction: Regional Perspective

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Seminar OutlineSeminar Outline

Alfalfa productionAlfalfa productionCorn silage productionCorn silage productionEmerging issuesEmerging issues-- Emerging Issues for Alfalfa in California and Emerging Issues for Alfalfa in California and

Arizona, Dan Putnam and Mike OttmanArizona, Dan Putnam and Mike Ottman-- Emerging Issues with Alfalfa in the Pacific Emerging Issues with Alfalfa in the Pacific

Northwest, G. E. Northwest, G. E. Shewmaker Shewmaker et al. et al. http://alfalfa.http://alfalfa.ucdavisucdavis..eduedu//subpagessubpages/2002Symposium/2002WAC./2002Symposium/2002WAC.htmhtm

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23.6 million acres

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Leading Alfalfa Hay Production Leading Alfalfa Hay Production States, 1,000 tons, 2003States, 1,000 tons, 2003

Top 10 States Top 10 States -- 58 % of U. S.58 % of U. S.-- 60 % of Acre60 % of Acre-- 4 states NC4 states NC-- 6 states West6 states West-- 5 Lead Dairy5 Lead Dairy

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

CA NE SD IA ID MN WI KS MT MI

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Western Alfalfa Acres, 01Western Alfalfa Acres, 01--03, 1,00003, 1,000

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

AZ

CA

CO

ID

MT

NV

NM

OR

UT

WA

WY

31 % of US Total

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Western Alfalfa, 01Western Alfalfa, 01--03, 1,000 tons03, 1,000 tons

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

AZ

CA

CO

ID

MT

NV

NM

OR

UT

WA

WY

40 % of US Total

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OverviewOverview……Industry Trends– Acreage– Demand– Price

Emerging Issues– Water– Environmental– Markets

Conclusions

Industry TrendsIndustry Trends–– AcreageAcreage–– DemandDemand–– PricePrice

Emerging IssuesEmerging Issues–– WaterWater–– EnvironmentalEnvironmental–– MarketsMarkets

ConclusionsConclusionsAlfalfa—Queen of Forages!

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Swainson’s Hawk

Longer Term Trends – CA, AZLonger Term Trends Longer Term Trends –– CA, AZCA, AZ

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CA-AZ YIELD TRENDS

Californiay = 0.0467x - 86.223

R2 = 0.9729

Arizonay = 0.0824x - 156.6

R2 = 0.8935

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Yiel

d (t/

a)

California

Arizona

Alfalfa Yield TrendsAlfalfa Yield Trends

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CACA--AZ Production TrendsAZ Production TrendsCA-AZ PRODUCTION TRENDS

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

PRO

DU

CTI

ON

(to

ns X

1,0

00)

California

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All Hay All Hay –– Crop ValueCrop Value

CROP VALUE (US$ All Hay)

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

CR

OP

VALU

E ($

X 1

,000

)

$1.02 billion

$183 million

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LongLong--Term Trends Term Trends –– CA, AZCA, AZ

Likely to remain around 1.2Likely to remain around 1.2--1.4 M acres (2 1.4 M acres (2 states), +/states), +/-- 100,000 acres100,000 acresKey Key ‘‘MegatrendsMegatrends’’-- Cow Numbers/Dairy DemandCow Numbers/Dairy Demand-- Horse NumbersHorse Numbers-- Population Boom, UrbanizationPopulation Boom, Urbanization-- Increased RegulationIncreased Regulation-- Water Availability/TransfersWater Availability/Transfers

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Short Term Trends Short Term Trends –– CA, AZCA, AZ

Huge Jump in Acreage 2001Huge Jump in Acreage 2001--20022002““ModerationModeration”” in Price (not crash)in Price (not crash)Ascendancy of Forage Quality Ascendancy of Forage Quality (typical of lower priced(typical of lower priced--years)years)Acreage likely to remain near this in Acreage likely to remain near this in ’’0303Dairy PriceDairy Price

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Changing U.S. Milk Production

0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300%

New Mexico

Idaho

Arizona

Nevada

California

Utah

Colorado

Washington

Delaware

Vermont

U.S. Milk Production: Largest Production Increases, 1989-1999*U.S. Milk Production: Largest Production Increases, 1989-1999*

*Preliminary estimate.Source: USDA/NASS, Milk Production.

WMMB

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Dairy ProductionDairy Production--CaliforniaCalifornia

y = 812.7x - 2E+06R2 = 0.9721

0.00

5,000.00

10,000.00

15,000.00

20,000.00

25,000.00

30,000.00

35,000.00

1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000

Average Rate of Increase: 4.5%/year2000 Percent of 1975: 300%Dairy Cows 2002: 1.55 millionAdditional Milk each year: 813 million lbsThat’s equal to: 10 milllion gal/year

(X million lbs/year)

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Growth of Western Dairying:Growth of Western Dairying:Phenomenal ExpansionPhenomenal Expansion--likely to continuelikely to continueDairyDairy--forage Continuum: Clearly the leading forage Continuum: Clearly the leading agricultural industry in >$5 billion/yr agricultural industry in >$5 billion/yr Impetus: population increases/low cost of Impetus: population increases/low cost of production in Californiaproduction in CaliforniaKey flash points:Key flash points:-- Waste Management/EnvironmentalWaste Management/Environmental-- World Price/Competition/ConsolidationWorld Price/Competition/Consolidation-- Cost of FeedCost of Feed--Western dairies are vulnerableWestern dairies are vulnerable-- WaterWater

Sustainability?Sustainability?

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Where does the Alfalfa Go?Where does the Alfalfa Go?

Key MarketsKey Markets Approximate % Approximate % (California)(California)

Dairy Dairy 7575--85%85%Beef Beef 55--10%10%Sheep/GoatSheep/Goat <2%<2%Horse Horse 55--10%10%ExportsExports 55--8%8%

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Acreage Trends Acreage Trends –– CA, AZCA, AZCA-AZ ACREAGE TRENDS

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

AC

RES

(X 1

,000

)

California

Arizona

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CA-AZ YIELD TRENDS

Californiay = 0.0467x - 86.223

R2 = 0.9729

Arizonay = 0.0824x - 156.6

R2 = 0.8935

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Yiel

d (t/

a)

California

Arizona

Alfalfa Yield TrendsAlfalfa Yield Trends

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Effect of Forage Quality on PriceEffect of Forage Quality on Price(average of all California Markets)(average of all California Markets)

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

$/t

on

SUPREME(<27 %ADF)PREMIUM (27-30 %ADF)GOOD (30-32 %ADF)FAIR (32-35 %ADF)Impact of Forage Quality:

Approximately $300 millionIn CA alone.

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Influence of Influence of Quality on Quality on

Intake & MilkIntake & Milk

SOURCE: Robinson and DePeters, 2000. UC-Davis

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WATERWATERQuantity, Availability, PriceQuantity, Availability, Price

Without a doubt….The major issue for Alfalfa

Emerging Issue:

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Water and AlfalfaWater and Alfalfa

2 to 7 Acre Feet Per year Applied2 to 7 Acre Feet Per year AppliedProbably about 5Probably about 5--5.5 AF/year average in CA 5.5 AF/year average in CA –– more in AZ, Southern CAmore in AZ, Southern CAApprox. 15% of CaliforniaApprox. 15% of California’’s Agricultural s Agricultural Water Water –– single highest demand cropsingle highest demand cropLack of Flexibility Lack of Flexibility –– PerennialPerennialDifficult to reduce total water use without Difficult to reduce total water use without reducing yieldreducing yield

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Water and AlfalfaWater and Alfalfa……Not such as dismal story:Not such as dismal story:

High water use related primarily to High water use related primarily to -- AcreageAcreage-- Length of SeasonLength of Season-- High YieldHigh Yield(Alfalfa water use is comparable to most (Alfalfa water use is comparable to most

herbaceous crops when these are factored)herbaceous crops when these are factored)Alfalfa High in WaterAlfalfa High in Water--Use EfficiencyUse EfficiencyDeep roots assure recovery of residual Deep roots assure recovery of residual waterwater

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Key Arizona Water IssuesKey Arizona Water Issues

1980 Arizona Groundwater Code1980 Arizona Groundwater Code——to to reduce reduce groundwater overdraft groundwater overdraft -- Central part of stateCentral part of stateBones of contention Bones of contention –– rights of farmers, rights of farmers, method of calculating water duties method of calculating water duties --irrigation efficiency.irrigation efficiency.Water diversion from rivers by agriculture Water diversion from rivers by agriculture and effect on endangered species (e.g. Gila and effect on endangered species (e.g. Gila River)River)Quality (EC) of water delivered to Mexico in Quality (EC) of water delivered to Mexico in Colorado RiverColorado RiverIndian water rights and effect on other water Indian water rights and effect on other water usesuses

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Key Water Issues in CA:Key Water Issues in CA:(PARTIAL LIST, South to North)(PARTIAL LIST, South to North)

200,000 AF Transfer200,000 AF Transfer from IID to SDfrom IID to SD——largest Aglargest Ag--Urban Urban transfer in history transfer in history –– 1998 but still pending.1998 but still pending.Environmental Environmental surrountingsurrounting the the Salton Sea Salton Sea (keep (keep agricultural drain water)agricultural drain water)CACA’’s Commitment s Commitment not to exceed 4.4 million AFnot to exceed 4.4 million AFAF/year from Colorado River (usually over by 800,000 AF/year from Colorado River (usually over by 800,000 AF or 20%) Key issue for both AZ/CA. AF or 20%) Key issue for both AZ/CA. Pending Long term commitment to transfer Pending Long term commitment to transfer 29% of 29% of Palo VerdePalo Verde water to Los Angeleswater to Los Angeles

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CA Pending Water CA Pending Water Concerns/Constraints:Concerns/Constraints:

(PARTIAL LIST, South to North CONTINUED)(PARTIAL LIST, South to North CONTINUED)

Adjudication of Adjudication of Mojave Desert GroundwaterMojave Desert Groundwater in in conflict with urban demandconflict with urban demandPurchase of water to Purchase of water to restore wildliferestore wildlife habitat in habitat in the S. San Joaquin Valleythe S. San Joaquin ValleyCALFED proposals to CALFED proposals to convert 200,000 acres convert 200,000 acres of Delta farmlandof Delta farmland to restoration of habitatto restoration of habitatFallowing on the Fallowing on the West SideWest Side due to drainage due to drainage and cost issuesand cost issues

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CA Pending Water CA Pending Water Concerns/Constraints:Concerns/Constraints:

(PARTIAL LIST, South to North CONTINUED)(PARTIAL LIST, South to North CONTINUED)

Economic TransfersEconomic Transfers between Sacramento between Sacramento Valley and S. California CitiesValley and S. California CitiesWater purchases maintenance of high Water purchases maintenance of high reservoir levels for CA reservoir levels for CA energy generationenergy generationRestoration of stream flowsRestoration of stream flows, meander of , meander of Sacramento/San Joaquin Rivers by moving Sacramento/San Joaquin Rivers by moving levies, absorbing farmlandlevies, absorbing farmland

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CA Pending Water CA Pending Water Concerns/Constraints:Concerns/Constraints:

(PARTIAL LIST, South to North CONTINUED)(PARTIAL LIST, South to North CONTINUED)

Trinity Lake DiversionsTrinity Lake Diversions questioned due to questioned due to Endangered Species Act.Endangered Species Act.Klamath BasinKlamath Basin Uncertainty due to Endangered Uncertainty due to Endangered Species Act (suckerfish and salmon) ruling to Species Act (suckerfish and salmon) ruling to maintain lake and stream levels.maintain lake and stream levels.Possible Possible listing of Coho salmon as endangered in listing of Coho salmon as endangered in California.California. Potential impact upon both pumping Potential impact upon both pumping supplies and many Intermountain and Sacramento supplies and many Intermountain and Sacramento River watersheds. River watersheds.

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Alfalfa SummaryAlfalfa Summary

Water Constraints, Competitive Crops, Water Constraints, Competitive Crops, Urbanization Approximately Counteracts Urbanization Approximately Counteracts tremendous increase in cow numbers to determine tremendous increase in cow numbers to determine acreageacreageForage Quality to become more important as % in Forage Quality to become more important as % in ration declinesration declinesWater Transfers of various types in our futureWater Transfers of various types in our futureWater Quality issues interact closely with water Water Quality issues interact closely with water supply issuessupply issues

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Corn Silage Production, 2003Corn Silage Production, 2003

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

WI NY CA PA MN IA SD NE ID OH

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Corn Silage Production in Leading Dairy StatesCorn Silage Production in Leading Dairy States

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

CA WI NY PA MN ID

198019902003

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Western Corn Silage, 01Western Corn Silage, 01--03, 1000 tons03, 1000 tons

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

AZ

CA

CO

ID

MT

NV

NM

OR

UT

WA

WY

22 % of US Total

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Western Corn Silage Acres, 01Western Corn Silage Acres, 01--03, 100003, 1000

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

AZ

CA

CO

ID

MT

NV

NM

OR

UT

WA

WY

14 % of US Total

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