Dr. Alain Pietroniro, P.Eng. Ms. Brenda Toth, MScMs. Jessika Toyra

National Water Research Institute, National Hydrology research Centre11 Innovation Blvd., Saskatoon. SK.

e-mail: al.pietroniro@ec.gc.ca

Dr. Thian Yew GanProfessor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,

University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta

Dr. Jim Byrne and Dr. Stefen KeinzelProfessor, Department of Geography,

University of Lethbridge, Lethbridge, Alberta

Mr. Mike Demuth, P.Eng., P.GeoGlaciology Program, Terrain Sciences Division

Natural Resources Canada

Water Availability in the South Saskatchewan River Basin under Climate Change

Hydrology and the Canadian Prairies

• Some of the largest potential changes in surface water quantity under the currently predicted climate scenarios are in the Canadian prairies.

•

Adapting to these changes requires sophisticated understanding of the hydrological cycle within the prairie eco-zone in tandem with understanding the influence that human intervention on the landscape has made to the hydrological regime.

Objective

• To predict the future water availability in the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) under the potential impact of climate change using hydrologic models calibrated to SSRB and forced by downscaled climate scenarios projected by some selected general circulation models (GCM).

• To prove the utility of a physical modeling study linked and integrated to water policy via a socio-economic study

The scenarios will allow others to examine surface water resources management strategies on the prairies in an integrated watershed management framework under varying climate scenarios.

GCM Analysis

GCM DataCCRS-NIESCGCM1CGCM2CSIROMK2bECHAM4GFDL-R15GFDL-R30HadCM2HadCM3NCAR-DOENCAR-PCM

Observed DataIDW – Prairie & Northern RegionCRU – Climatic Research UnitWATMPPR – U of Waterloo

1961-1990 current climate simulations of seasonal & annual:- Mean Temperature -Total PrecipitationBaseline climatology

TemperatureTemperature

Best seasonal representationCCSR-NIES and ECHAM4ECHAM4

Good annual balance

HadCM3HadCM3 and NCARNCAR--PCMPCM

PrecipitationPrecipitation

Best seasonalNCARNCAR--PCMPCM

Annual balanceGFDL-R30, NCARNCAR--PCMPCM and ECHAM4ECHAM4

Baseline comparison

0.212.7--0.80.8--16.516.5--1.11.1NCARNCAR--PCMPCM

7.425.91.31.3-10.26.1NCAR-DOE

-0.414.10.40.4--16.816.8--0.70.7HadCM3HadCM3

2.814.314.32.8-10.02.5HadCM2

3.919.20.90.9-11.73.1GFDL-R30

0.216.7-3.2--17.917.9-1.0GFDL-R15

2.22.215.515.51.31.3-13.11.5ECHAM4ECHAM4

3.216.2--1.41.4-13.61.1CSIROMK2b

5.814.914.9-3.4-12.41.2CGCM2

6.116.8--0.40.4-10.63.0CGCM1

0.90.914.414.4-5.0--17.517.5-1.8CCSRCCSR--NIESNIES

1.51.515.315.30.30.3--17.317.30.00.0IDWIDW

AutumnSummerSpringWinterAnnualData Sets

Mean Temperature (°C) Baseline comparison

Yellow values = no significant differenceYellow values = no significant difference

97.797.7250.8124.470.370.3543.2NCARNCAR--PCMPCM

183.5201.3201.3245.2148.5778.5NCAR-DOE

137.9286.0149.670.370.3643.8HadCM3

119.7119.7224.1154.294.2592.3HadCM2

118.4157.0144.496.8516.7GFDLGFDL--R30R30

158.8193.7193.7154.0151.7658.1GFDL-R15

119.5219.0219.0144.4102.3585.2ECHAM4ECHAM4

142.4279.7132.9101.6656.6CSIROMK2b

166.1263.0149.6153.3731.9CGCM2

172.4250.4165.3158.0746.1CGCM1

177.9311.0159.1143.3791.3CCSR-NIES

105.3105.3208.9208.990.190.164.964.9469.2469.2IDWIDW

AutumnSummerSpringWinterAnnualData Sets

Total Precipitation (mm) Baseline comparison

Meteorological Forcing and Downscaling

Current Climate forcing:

Surface Observations from Climate Archive

Precipitation (Daily) - 30 years 1961-1990

Temperature (Daily) - 30 years 1961-1990

700+ stations

Interpolated(Kriging)

Disaggregate

(hourly) Lapse rateInterpolate(hourly)

GCM %Precip +Tempecha21 0.2 2.8echb21 -0.3 2.8hada21 11.1 2.3hadb21 6.1 2.1ncara21 11.8 1.7ncarb21 8.5 1.5

driest, warmest

moderately wet and warm

wettest and least warm

Description Season % Precip +Tempwinter 11.8 2.1spring 9.1 1.3

summer -3.8 3.0fall 7.9 2.3 wetter and warmer

Descriptionwetter and warmer

wetter and somewhat warmerdrier and much warmer

Forcing for future climate: Apply basin mean changes in T and P due to GCM to observed data

Modeling results 1961-90Watflood - MISBA

050

100150200250300350400

JanFe

bMar

AprilMay

JuneJu

lyAug

Sept Oct

NovDec

Mea

n fl

ow

(cm

s)

meas05AD007

mod OM @Leth

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

JanFe

bMar

AprilMay

JuneJu

lyAug

Sept Oct

NovDec

Mea

n flo

w (c

ms)

meas05BH004

mod BR @Calgary

020406080

100120140160180

JanFe

bMar

AprilMay

JuneJu

lyAugSe

pt OctNovDec

Mea

n flo

w (c

ms)

meas05CK004

mod RD @Blindloss

0100200300400500600700800900

1000

JanFe

bMarApr

ilMay

JuneJu

lyAu

gSe

pt OctNovDec

Mea

n fl

ow

(cm

s)

mod Diefmeasured

mod Diefmodelled

Oldman current (AG006)

0.050.0

100.0150.0200.0250.0300.0350.0400.0

Jan

Feb

Mar AprMay Ju

n JulAug Se

p OctNov Dec

flo

w (

cms)

MISBA

Watflood

Bow River current (BN012)

0.050.0

100.0150.0200.0250.0300.0350.0400.0

JanFe

bMar Ap

rMayJu

n JulAu

gSe

p OctNo

vDec

Flo

w (

cms)

MISBA

Watflood

Oldman Bow River(05AG006) (05BN012)

Observed 104.6 122.1MISBA 103.9 121.4Watflood 91.4 106.8

Mean annual flows cms

Bow River at Banff

0

50

100

150

200

current ech had ncar

climatology

mod

elle

d flo

ws

(ave

rag

e cm

s)

winterspringsummerfall

Old Man River at Lethbridge

0

50

100

150

current ech had ncar

climatology

mo

del

led

flo

ws

(ave

rag

e cm

s) winterspringsummerfall

South Saskatchewan River at Diefenbaker

0100200300400500600

current ech had ncar

climatology

mod

elle

d flo

ws

(ave

rag

e cm

s) winter

springsummer

fall

Seasonal response in future flows

Red Deer River at Red Deer

020406080

100120

current ech had ncar

climatology

mod

elle

d flo

ws

(ave

rag

e cm

s)

winterspringsummer

fall

Bow River at Banff

0

50

100

150

200

current ech had ncar

climatology

mod

elle

d flo

ws

(ave

rag

e cm

s)

winterspring

summerfall

Season % Precip +Tempwinter 11.8 2.1spring 9.1 1.3

summer -3.8 3.0fall 7.9 2.3 wetter and warmer

Descriptionwetter and warmer

wetter and somewhat warmerdrier and much warmer

Uncertainties……orConfessions of a modeler

– "The greatest obstacle to discovery is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge". - Daniel Boorstin

– Prairie Hydrology is poorly understood!!!– Data uncertainties– Non-contributing area– Effect of land-use practices– Groundwater – The role of glaciers– The role of potholes and depression features in the water

and energy balance– Snow sublimation– Seasonally frozen soils– ET estimates are uncertain

PET estimates available to link to distributed hydrologic modeling

• Morton/CRAE – Spatially and temporally

insufficient• Modified Priestley-Taylor

– Estimates end at Alberta border

• NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data– Sufficient

spatial/temporal resolution

• Hargreaves within Watflood– Can be modified/recoded– Must ensure consistency

Land Surface Potential Evapotranspiration

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Month

PE

T (m

m)

Morton Land Surface (1147)

Modified Priestley-Taylor (1046)

Hargreaves (619)

NCEP-NCAR reanalysis (1674)

Pan Evaporation (1263)

Alberta

Manitoba

Ontario

Montana

Saskatchewan

Idaho

British Columbia

Minnesota

North Dakota

Oregon

Washington

WisconsinSouth Dakota

Wyoming

Michigan

Saskatchewan River

Churchill River

Peace River

Red River

Lake Winnipeg

Athabasca River

Assiniboine River

Hayes River

Winnipeg River

Nelson River

Missouri River

Seal River

3

40

11

1

0

10

0

62

30

27

0

Boise

Helena

Regina

Calgary

Winnipeg

Edmonton

Bismarck

Saskatoon

Saint PaulMinneapolis

Source:Non-contributing area - Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, P.F.R.A.Elevation data - Environmental Systems Research Institute

Non-contributing drainage area (percent of total basin area) for prairie drainage basins-median annual runoff-

0 100 20050

Kilometers

Closed basins of the glaciated northern prairies

SSRB Water Availability Study –physical modeling and linkages

• The Physical Component of the SSRB climate change study nearing completion

– Comparison with Sacramento, MISBA for major sub-basinsCross validation/nested scaling

– Model output linked to economic analysis on a yearly and sub-basin scale

• Where to go, implications for DRI– Continued evaluation on other components of the water cycle

• Potential evapotranspiration (PET), AET/soil moisture availability• Closed basins, non-contributing areas

– Assessment of uncertainties with further examination of current climate modelling or within GCM scenarios

• SSRB has striven for a unique and consistent approach to quantifying socio-economic impacts using solid physical models and methodologies.

Many investigators and assistants have been instrumental in the physical modeling. They include

Mr. Pablo Dornes (U of S)Dr. Taha Ouarda, Ing. (INRS-EAU)Mr. Kelly Best (NWRI)Ms. Jessika Toyra (NWRI)Dr. Barrie Bonsal (NWRI)

Ms. Krysha Dukacz (NWRI)Mr. Chris Hopkinson (WLU)Mr. Guy Duke (U of Lethbridge)Mr. Dave Harvey (WSC)Mr. Malcolm Conly, P.Geo (NWRI)PFRA, SaskWater, AEP, PARC, CCAF