Voters and Nonvoters in Voters and Nonvoters in Canadian Federal ElectionsCanadian Federal Elections

Michael D. MartinezMichael D. Martinez

University of FloridaUniversity of Florida

martinez@ufl.edumartinez@ufl.edu

Turnout in Canadian ElectionsTurnout in Canadian Elections

Source: Michael D. Martinez. 2007. “Turning Out or Tuning Out? Electoral Participation in Canada and the United States.” In David Thomas and Barbara Boyle Torrey (eds.), Canada and the United States: Differences That Count. (Third Edition. Peterborough, Ontario: Broadview Press). Chapter 16, p. 356.

Why has turnout declined in Canada?Why has turnout declined in Canada?

Generational (non-)replacementGenerational (non-)replacement Pammett and LeDuc (2003, report to Elections Pammett and LeDuc (2003, report to Elections

Canada)Canada) Younger voters particularly affected by Younger voters particularly affected by

decline in competition in local ridingsdecline in competition in local ridings Johnston, Matthew, and Bittner (2007, Johnston, Matthew, and Bittner (2007, Electoral Electoral

Studies)Studies)

Possible concerns about non-votingPossible concerns about non-voting

Do the unequal proclivities to vote on the part of some groups in society skew the policy preferences that are represented in government?

Is low turnout indicative of declining political support for the regime?

Previous literature – Policy Skew?Previous literature – Policy Skew?

Some differences, but not muchSome differences, but not much United StatesUnited States

Wolfinger and Rosenston (1980, Wolfinger and Rosenston (1980, Who Votes?Who Votes?)) Bennett and Resnick (1990, Bennett and Resnick (1990, AJPSAJPS)) Gant and Lyons (1993, Gant and Lyons (1993, APQAPQ)) Verba, Schlozman, and Brady (1995, Verba, Schlozman, and Brady (1995, Voice and EqualityVoice and Equality))

CanadaCanada Rubenson, Blais, Fournier, Gidengil, and Nevitte (2007 Rubenson, Blais, Fournier, Gidengil, and Nevitte (2007

Electoral StudiesElectoral Studies)) Martinez and Gill (2006, Martinez and Gill (2006, CJPSCJPS))

Previous Literature – System SupportPrevious Literature – System Support

Some differences between voters and Some differences between voters and nonvoters, but not much.nonvoters, but not much. Bennett and Resnick (1990, Bennett and Resnick (1990, AJPSAJPS))

Differences among votersDifferences among voters Anderson and LoTiempo (2002, Anderson and LoTiempo (2002, BJPSBJPS)) Anderson et al. (2005, Anderson et al. (2005, Losers’ ConsentLosers’ Consent)) Banducci and Karp (2003, Banducci and Karp (2003, BJPSBJPS)) Craig, Martinez, Gainous and Kane (2006, Craig, Martinez, Gainous and Kane (2006, PRQPRQ))

QuestionsQuestions

Do nonvoters and voters in Canadian elections Do nonvoters and voters in Canadian elections differ in policy preferences, differ in policy preferences, notnot controlling for controlling for demographics?demographics?

Do nonvoters and voters for “losing” parties Do nonvoters and voters for “losing” parties differ in their level of system support?differ in their level of system support?

Data from the 1997 and 2006 Canadian Data from the 1997 and 2006 Canadian Election Studies.Election Studies.

How much do you think should be done for Quebec: more, less or about the same as now?

19971997 20062006

Nonvoters Voters Nonvoters Voters

More 14.2% 21.3% 33.9% 26.8%

Same 49.7% 45.0% 27.5% 33.5%

Less 26.1% 28.2% 27.6% 32.0%

DK / Ref 10.0% 5.5% 11.0% 7.7%

Tauc -0.02 0.03

Society would be better off if more women stayed home with their children.

19971997 20062006

Nonvoters Voters Nonvoters Voters

Str. Agree 17.0%17.0% 22.8%22.8% 22.6%22.6% 17.1%17.1%

Agree 23.9%23.9% 22.3%22.3% 17.2%17.2% 19.4%19.4%

Disagree 18.1%18.1% 19.4%19.4% 20.6%20.6% 20.9%20.9%

Str. Disagree 38.2%38.2% 32.4%32.4% 35.0%35.0% 38.7%38.7%

DK / Ref 2.8%2.8% 3.0%3.0% 4.6%4.6% 3.9%3.9%

Tauc -0.05 0.02

The government should leave it entirely to the private sector to create jobs.

19971997 20062006

Nonvoters Voters Nonvoters Voters

Str. Agree 11.8%11.8% 15.6%15.6% 12.7%12.7% 11.0%11.0%

Agree 21.8%21.8% 24.1%24.1% 26.1%26.1% 21.7%21.7%

Disagree 30.9%30.9% 31.5%31.5% 34.2%34.2% 34.1%34.1%

Str. Disagree 28.4%28.4% 26.2%26.2% 19.2%19.2% 30.3%30.3%

DK / Ref 7.0%7.0% 2.6%2.6% 7.9%7.9% 2.9%2.9%

Tauc -0.03 0.04

Over the past year, has Canada's economy gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same?

19971997 20062006

Nonvoters Voters Nonvoters Voters

Better 28.0%28.0% 35.7%35.7% 25.3%25.3% 44.6%44.6%

Same 38.9%38.9% 43.0%43.0% 46.1%46.1% 39.1%39.1%

Worse 26.9%26.9% 18.1%18.1% 22.7%22.7% 13.6%13.6%

DK / Ref 6.2%6.2% 3.2%3.2% 5.9%5.9% 2.8%2.8%

Tauc -0.07 -0.07

Summary of Issue Differences19971997 20062006

Voters higher Tauc Voters higher Tauc

How much .. should be done for How much .. should be done for Quebec?Quebec?

MoreMore -0.02-0.02 LessLess 0.030.03

Society … better off if more women stayed home …

AgreeAgree -0.05-0.05 DisagreeDisagree 0.020.02

… leave it entirely to the private sector to create jobs.

AgreeAgree -0.03-0.03 DisagreeDisagree 0.040.04

Do you think Canada should admit more immigrants …?

MoreMore -0.03-0.03 MoreMore -0.03-0.03

Over the past year, Canada's economy …

BetterBetter 0.070.07 BetterBetter 0.070.07

Summary of Issue Differences19971997 20062006

Voters higher Tauc Voters higher Tauc

How much .. should be done for How much .. should be done for racial minorities?racial minorities?

SameSame 0.000.00 MoreMore -0.01-0.01

Should Quebec be recognized Should Quebec be recognized as a distinct society?as a distinct society?

YesYes 0.020.02 ---- ----

… … would you cut taxes, would you cut taxes, increase taxes, or keep taxes as increase taxes, or keep taxes as they are? they are?

SameSame 0.010.01 ---- ----

Gays and lesbians should be Gays and lesbians should be allowed to get married.allowed to get married.

---- ---- AgreeAgree -0.04-0.04

Do nonvoters and voters in Canadian Do nonvoters and voters in Canadian elections differ in policy preferences?elections differ in policy preferences?

No, nonvoters and voters in both 1997 and No, nonvoters and voters in both 1997 and 2006 look pretty similar to one another in 2006 look pretty similar to one another in terms of their issue preferences. terms of their issue preferences.

Moreover, the attitudinal biases in voter Moreover, the attitudinal biases in voter participation that are evident do not appear to participation that are evident do not appear to be especially stable over time in Canada.be especially stable over time in Canada.

System Support by Vote Choice, 1997

NonvotersNonvoters Not Liberal Not Liberal VotersVoters

Liberal Liberal VotersVoters

Satisfaction w/ Democracy (pre, very or fairly)Satisfaction w/ Democracy (pre, very or fairly) 53% 54% 74%

Satisfaction w/ Democracy (post, very or fairly)Satisfaction w/ Democracy (post, very or fairly) 70% 68% 89%

MPs lose touch (pre-, strongly agree)MPs lose touch (pre-, strongly agree) 38% 41% 29%

I don't think government cares (pre, str. agree)I don't think government cares (pre, str. agree) 40% 37% 22%

Politicians are ready to lie (pre , str. agree), str. agree) 56% 55% 39%

Mean Feeling Thermometer Politicians 36.9 43.1 51.2

Mean Feeling Thermometer Canada 79.2 80.4 88.7

Mean Feeling Thermometer Canada (excluding Quebec)

84.0 87.6 89.6

System Support by Vote Choice, 2006

NonvotersNonvoters Not Liberal Not Liberal VotersVoters

Liberal Liberal VotersVoters

Satisfaction w/ Democracy (pre, very or fairly)Satisfaction w/ Democracy (pre, very or fairly) 57.2% 56.9% 76.8%

Satisfaction w/ Democracy (post, very or fairly)Satisfaction w/ Democracy (post, very or fairly) 72.8% 83.6% 82.6%

I don't think government cares (pre, str. agree)I don't think government cares (pre, str. agree) 44.5% 34.9% 20.4%

Politicians are ready to lie (pre, str. agree), str. agree) 61.5% 51.9% 37.3%

Mean Feeling Thermometer Politicians 41.9 53.7 55.8

Mean Feeling Thermometer Canada 81.1 86.2 88.8

Mean Feeling Thermometer Canada (excluding Quebec)

83.7 89.2 88.7

System Support by Vote Choice, 2006

NonvotersNonvoters Not Cons. Not Cons. VotersVoters

Cons.Cons.

VotersVoters

Satisfaction w/ Democracy (pre, very or fairly)Satisfaction w/ Democracy (pre, very or fairly) 57.2% 66.7% 55.2%

Satisfaction w/ Democracy (post, very or fairly)Satisfaction w/ Democracy (post, very or fairly) 72.8% 79.1% 89.9%

I don't think government cares (pre, str. agree)I don't think government cares (pre, str. agree) 44.5% 27.4% 36.9%

Politicians are ready to lie (pre, str. agree), str. agree) 61.5% 46.4% 50.6%

Mean Feeling Thermometer Politicians 41.9 53.7 55.1

Mean Feeling Thermometer Canada 81.1 86.5 87.4

Mean Feeling Thermometer Canada (excluding Quebec)

83.7 89.5 88.4

Expected Values for “typical” respondent by Vote Choice, 2006

NonNon LibLib ConsCons NDPNDP BlocBloc GrnGrn

Satisfaction w/ Satisfaction w/ Democracy (pre)Democracy (pre)

0.070.07

fairlyfairly

1.14*1.14*

fairlyfairly

0.080.08

fairlyfairly

0.340.34

fairlyfairly

-0.10-0.10

fairlyfairly

0.130.13

fairlyfairly

Satisfaction w/ Satisfaction w/ Democracy (post)Democracy (post)

0.080.08

fairlyfairly

0.73*0.73*

fairlyfairly

0.81*0.81*

fairlyfairly

0.300.30

fairlyfairly

0.160.16

fairlyfairly

0.040.04

fairlyfairly

I don't think I don't think government caresgovernment cares

0.530.53

agreeagree

-0.75**-0.75**

agreeagree

0.12**0.12**

agreeagree

-0.18**-0.18**

agreeagree

-0.05**-0.05**

agreeagree

0.40**0.40**

agreeagree

Politicians are ready to lie

0.370.37

S.agreeS.agree

-0.71**-0.71**

AgreeAgree

0.05**0.05**

S.agreeS.agree

0.030.03

S.agreeS.agree

0.530.53

S.agreeS.agree

0.260.26

S.agreeS.agree

FT Politicians 44.644.6 56.4*56.4* 56.1*56.1* 51.3*51.3* 60.1*60.1* 45.045.0

FT Canada 86.086.0 92.2*92.2* 90.3*90.3* 93.8*93.8* 80.1**80.1** 88.288.2

Do nonvoters and voters differ in their level of Do nonvoters and voters differ in their level of system support?system support?

Most nonvoters, like most voters, were somewhat satisfied Most nonvoters, like most voters, were somewhat satisfied with the way democracy works in Canada, despite skepticism with the way democracy works in Canada, despite skepticism about the responsiveness of the government and the honesty of about the responsiveness of the government and the honesty of its officials. its officials.

As in other democracies, “winners” were more supportive than As in other democracies, “winners” were more supportive than “losers”, but nonvoters’ beliefs were not all that different from “losers”, but nonvoters’ beliefs were not all that different from those of “losers.” those of “losers.”

In a sense, these findings suggest that the decline in turnout in In a sense, these findings suggest that the decline in turnout in Canada does not appear to be an exit strategy on the part of the Canada does not appear to be an exit strategy on the part of the extremely disaffected, and they complement Johnston, extremely disaffected, and they complement Johnston, Matthews, and Bittner’s (2007) conclusion that the lack of a Matthews, and Bittner’s (2007) conclusion that the lack of a competitive pull may be at the root of generation Y’s failure to competitive pull may be at the root of generation Y’s failure to enter.enter.

Is the decline in turnout Is the decline in turnout inconsequential?inconsequential?

No, electoral outcomes can vary, under some No, electoral outcomes can vary, under some conditions, under higher or lower levels of turnout. conditions, under higher or lower levels of turnout.

Moveover, the political institutions of liberal Moveover, the political institutions of liberal democracies ideally balance majoritarianism with the democracies ideally balance majoritarianism with the freedoms to express intensely held preferences.freedoms to express intensely held preferences.

Higher turnout may one of several signals to elected representatives that the public is watching, and encourage them to be more attentive to its needs and faithful to its wishes.

If you’d like a copy of the paper …If you’d like a copy of the paper …

http://www.clas.ufl.edu/users/martinez/cpsa08/martinez_cpsa08.pdfhttp://www.clas.ufl.edu/users/martinez/cpsa08/martinez_cpsa08.pdf Or just go to Or just go to http://www.clas.ufl.edu/users/martinez/http://www.clas.ufl.edu/users/martinez/

Research and cvResearch and cv Recent conference papersRecent conference papers Voters and Nonvoters in Canadian Federal ElectionsVoters and Nonvoters in Canadian Federal Elections

Email: martinez@ufl.eduEmail: martinez@ufl.edu