Vivek Issues n Options February 2013

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    India's Pendulum Policy on Pakistan

    Countering New Maoist Tactics India's Indigenous Defence Technology

    India-China Cultural Interface

    and many more .

    Published By: Vivekananda International Foundation3, San Martin Marg, Chanakyapuri, New Delhi 110021, [email protected], www.vifindia.org

    http://www.vifindia.org/http://www.vifindia.org/
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    VIVEK : Issues and Options February 2013 Issue: II No: II 2

    Developing Indias Indigenous

    Defence Technologies: The Case ForInducting Arjun Tanks

    - Radhakrishna Rao

    Taliban And Afghan Peace NoTango After Paris

    - Monish Gulati

    Countering New Tactics Of TheMaoists : Good Intelligence Is TheKey

    - Dr. N Manoharan

    Electronic Voting Machine : New Attack Vector

    - Cmdr. Mukesh Saini

    EVENTS

    Vimarsha: 'Swami Vivekananda OnWomen: Meeting The ContemporaryChallenges'

    ARTICLESBe To Pakistan As Its Posture Warrants

    - Kanwal Sibal

    Dangerously Nave, Naively Dangerous

    - PP Shukla

    nhuman Act At LoC : Need For AnAppropriate Response

    - Brig (retd) Gurmeet Kanwal

    ndia - China Cultural Interface : AnAgenda For Future

    - Brig (retd) Vinod Anand & Dr. Anirban Ganguly

    RBI Relented Under Pressure For A RateCut

    - V Anantha Nageswaran

    ystemic Failure Or Organ Failure?- Dr M N Buch

    ndias Pendulum Policy On Pakistan

    - Sushant Sareen

    Contents

    3

    7

    14

    18

    28

    32

    64

    55

    49

    68

    73

    44

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    VIVEK : Issues and Options February 2013 Issue: II No: II 3

    Be To Pakistan As Its Posture Warrants - Kanwal Sibal

    ur international relationsexperts are divided on howto deal with Pakistan, with

    a section always advocatingmoderation in reaction toPakistani provocations and othersfavouring more robust responsesto Pakistani belligerence. Thislack of consensus makes ourPakistan policy look vacillatingand irresolute.

    It is easy to wear the mantle of moderation as the accompanyingvocabulary of peace, engagement,dialogue and restraint soundsmature and wise. Those wantingfirmer treatment of Pakistan slipinto talk of retaliation, force,reprisal, imposing costs, whichsounds aggressive and war-like.Public opinion on the whole ismore indulgent towards doveseven when their judgments areskewed than towards hawkseven when their views aresounder. Dovish views are lessunsettling than hawkish ones in acountry that still lacks self-confidence and is morecomfortable with caution thanwith risk-taking even when

    provoked.

    The complexity of our problemswith Pakistan would justify adegree of prudence in ourreactions. What is less justified isour posture of helplessness. Wesay meekly that we have no choicebut to have a dialogue withPakistan. Some on our sideactually advocate anuninterrupted anduninterruptible dialogue. Suchthinking is pernicious for ourinterests but serves those of Pakistan, which is why its foreign

    minister has made this catchyphraseology her own. She hasthrown it in our face whileberating us for creating tensionsover the recent beheadingincident. She is hoisting us withour own petard!

    We were against negotiations with

    Pakistan with the gun of terrorismpointed at our head. We, therefore,linked resumption of dialogue withPakistans commitment to endterrorism. Politically cornered

    O

    * Kanwal Sibal - Member, VIF Advisory Board, VIF

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    when Pakistan failed to honour itscommitment, instead of interrupting the dialogue we gaveourselves a way out by agreeing

    that both countries were victims of terrorism, which implied thatterrorist incidents in India werethe handiwork of non-state actorswith no official connivance. Later,we formally delinked dialogue andterrorism and continued ourparleys with Pakistan, despite aspate of terrorist attacks, until the

    enormity of the 2008 Mumbaiterrorist attacksmade such aposition politicallyuntenable. After ashort interregnum,we again resumedthe dialoguebecause our

    decision-makershave convincedthemsel ves that a no -dialogueoption is not available to us.

    Between not having a dialogueand a composite dialogue coveringall contentious issues, there isconsiderable space for talking toeach other, but we have straight-

    jacketed ourselves into astructured dialogue that, in fact,reduces the centrality of terrorismand allows Pakistan to put in allelements of its political agendawhere it wants territorial and

    other concessions from us,whether it is Kashmir, Siachen,Sir Creek or the Tulbul project. Infact, this composite dialogue

    exposes us to Pakistani demandsthat we cannot satisfy, with theresult that even Pakistanipeaceniks express theirdisappointment at Indias rigidity,especially on Siachen.

    What this superficial formula of an uninterrupted anduninterruptable dialogue meansis that even if another Mumbai-

    like attack takesplace, Indiashands must remaintied and thedialogue mustcontinue, ruling outany retaliatoryaction.

    The perspective of such adraconian restraint on Indiaprovides no incentive to Pakistanto take any step to weed outterrorists targetting India, as anyfuture attack would neither mean

    an end to bilateral engagementnor retaliation. Pakistan will thusretain the freedom to keep Indiaunder pressure with the threat of terrorism- as China does by notsettling the border issue- and

    The perspective of such adraconian restraint on Indiaprovides no incentive toPakistan to take any step toweed out terrorists targettingIndia, as any future attackwould neither mean an end tobilateral engagement nor

    retaliation.

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    VIVEK : Issues and Options February 2013 Issue: II No: II 5

    compel India to temporize, buyoff Pakistani hostility withfriendly gestures, including nottaking advantage of its increasing

    internal difficulties andinternational isolation. What cansuit Pakistani strategy better?

    Some diehard apologists of Pakistan in India claim that thereis a change in the Pakistanimindset towards India and none inIndias mindset towards Pakistan.Pakistan has supposedly movedaway from communal hostilitytowards India to national hostility.Why the latter, even if true,should re-assure us more is notclear. By the same logic, anationalist but more politicallyopen China would be better for itsneighbours than the existingauthoritarian version. Facts,moreover, would suggest thatPakistan is becoming morecommunal or sectarian incharacter by becoming moreintolerant towards the Shias andother minorities, that religiosity insociety is increasing andextremism is on the rise.

    It can hardly be that the internalmayhem being caused by thespread of extremist ideologies inPakistan implies a more tolerant

    religious attitude towards India.Our policies towards Pakistan inthe last eight years both under theNDA and the UPA governments

    show, on the contrary, how far ourattitudes towards Pakistan havechanged.

    In any case, if the Pakistanimindset towards India haschanged, in what positive way hasit expressed itself? On Kashmir,Pakistan has reverted to the UNresolutions as a solution, onSiachen it feels wronged, and onSir Creek it rejects internationalprinciples. It will not permitTulbul and will obstruct anypower project in J&K, it iscreating a new water issue despitethe generous Indus Waters Treaty,it is expanding its nuclear arsenalby distorting the intent andpurpose of the India-US nucleardeal and it is treating ourterrorism concerns with contempt.If it has moved away from itsirrational position of not tradingwith India and giving us MFNtreatment [which it still has notdone, despite assurances to thateffect], we do not need to feelgrateful. Pakistan will benefitfrom this as well as the visaagreement more than we will,though any progress in these areasshould be welcomed by us.

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    We should treat Pakistan as afriend when it is friendly and as afoe when it is inimical. We should

    be doves or hawks as the situationdemands.

    Back to Contents

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    VIVEK : Issues and Options February 2013 Issue: II No: II 7

    Dealing With The Neighbour From Hell

    Dangerously Nave, Naively Dangerous

    - PP Shukla

    here has been a veritablebarrage of opinion,hectoring and outright

    abuse from the pro-Pakistansegments of our media activists inthe print media over the recentflare-up along parts of the LOC.This requires a substantive andfact-based debate, and an answerto some of the arguments putforward by the pro-Pakistanelements that have written andspoken so passionately on thesubject in recent days.

    The essence of the arguments put

    forward by the supporters of theGovernment policy may besummed up in three principallines of reasoning. The first is thatthere is a change inside Pakistan,and this is driven by a realisationthat hostility towards India hasnot paid, so it is time to look at thealternative and to improve ties

    with India. The second line of argument is that if India takes atough stand towards Pakistan, itwill weaken the moderates, thosewho want good relations with

    India. The third line is that thisPrime Ministers policy is actuallyvery wise, and is an example of profound realism. Further, that isit this realism that has establishedan asymmetry between India andPakistan in the international

    discourse.First: the supposed change insidePakistan has been muchcommented upon. Among the pro-Pakistan elements, this is coupledwith a conviction that thenationalist segment of opinion inIndia is too blind, or biased, to seethis. The core argument is that,after years of sponsoringterrorism, Pakistan has itself become a victim, and is thereforenow ready to drop its earlier policyof promoting terrorism, and seeksa new relationship with India.Pakistan, in this telling, has lostforty thousand lives to terror, andis more victim than sponsor.Pakis tans economic problems arealso part of the reason for thechange in mood. All through 2012,we were also told that proof of thischange was that Pakistan had

    T

    * PP Shukla - Joint Director, VIF

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    given MFN treatment to Indianexports, and there was more tofollow.

    The reality is different. The easierpoint to dispose of is that Pakistanhas not given MFN status toIndian goods; even though that isan obligation they have under theWTO and was backed up by aCabinet decision early last year.This, by the way, also illustratesPakistans appr oach to its solemninternational obligations, whichwe would be wise to bear in mindas we go forward inour dealings withthem, for example,on the TAPI gaspipeline project. Italso illustrates ourapproach: forsixteen years wehave unilaterallyextended MFN treatment toPakistani exports to India, and wehave not even taken Pakistan tothe WTO dispute settlement for itsrefusal to give our exports MFNstatus. In short, as always, wehave indulged Pakistani violationof the law. The pro-Pakistanelements are not talking aboutthis now, but it is easy to imaginehow they would have touted this had it happened as evidence of the change they profess to see.

    As to terrorism, there is absolutelyno evidence that there is anychange in Pakistans approach t osponsoring anti-India terrorists.

    They continue to protect andpromote the Lashkar-e-Taiba andthe other tanzeems that haveIndia as their target. Equally, theycontinue to sponsor the Talibanand their allies in Afghanistan,and to good effect, judging by therecent developments in the Afghanissue.

    Here, too, the core argument needsto be strippedaway: the fortythousand killedover the last tenyears is supposedto have induced asense of the dangerfrom their

    erstwhileirresponsible policies in the mindsof Pakistani leaders. The reality isthat this statistic covers all sortsof incidents, including the droneattacks, sectarian killings, andinnocent civilians. Among theuniformed forces, the death toll issix thousand over ten years high,for sure, but not all that much,and certainly not enough to makethe security establishment changeits mind. The direction of events isclear: judges who pronounceverdicts against terrorists have to

    The reality is different. Theeasier point to dispose of is thatPakistan has not given MFNstatus to Indian goods; eventhough that is an obligationthey have under the WTO andwas backed up by a Cabinetdecision early last year.

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    flee the country, or seek sheltersomewhere; killers of highly-placed officials are showered withpetals when they come for trial. It

    is not surprising that a well-known Pakistani analyst, and anarch nationalist, was forced tolament the fundamentalist Islamthat now seems to hold sway inour unfortunate country. No, it ismore probable that those whoadvocate a soft line on Pakistanare the ones who are missing the

    real change inside that country,not the sceptics.

    Finally, there is thecontrary reality;the growing powerand aggressivenessof the religiousestablishmentinside Pakistan.The same people inIndia, who talkabout the growing sectariankillings as one of the factorsinducing a sense of responsibilityamong Pakistani policy-makers,seem to suggest that this is somekind of exogenous phenomenon,and that the poor victims are nowasserting themselves. But no, thegrowing power of the religiousextremists is endogenous, and isthe more powerful reality insidePakistan. The minorities - Hindus,Sikhs, Christians, and the Shia -

    in that country have the scars toprove it. To suggest that there is agrowing sense of moderation inPakistan, while ignoring this

    powerful fact, is itself to hide fromthe reality.

    Most important of all, we have aneasy test of real intent and realchange: the Mumbai 26/11 trials.Whenever the Pakistanestablishment gets serious abouttackling terror, all it has to do isstop playing ducks and drakes

    with this issue, andwe shall all get themessage. Sadly,what we are seeingis the opposite. OnePakistani leaderadvises us to moveon and stop beingemotional about it,another suggeststhat there is some

    kind of linkage between 26/11 and Ayodhya; these are clear signsthat, for Pakistan, there is no giveon anti-India terror. We are alsoseeing that the Maoists are nowgetting weapons from Pakistan. Itis hard to discern in all this anylet-up in the sponsorship of terrorby Pakistan. It is up to us to facethis reality.

    The second argument is about themoderates and the need for India

    There is another fact to beconsidered here. The Pakistan

    Army has been weakened twicein the recent past, once in1971, and again after the USraid on Abbottabad in May2011. Neither happened afterthe other cheek was turned;they happened after a

    successful military actiona ainst the Pakistan Arm .

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    to strengthen them. The first issuehere is just who are themoderates? It is quite droll to seethat when the media in India wish

    to project a Pakistani moderate,they have to reach out to thecultural fringes of society, a Sufisinger, or an anti-Establishmentwriter, or some such. All theothers who appear on ourtelevision screens, formerbureaucrats, journalists, lawyers,etc, are all as hawkish as any

    serving official, civil, political ormilitary. By contrast, you can seeany number of Indian mainstreamfigures among all theseprofessions who argue for a softapproach. There is thus a firstissue of exactly who thesemoderates are, and whether theyhave any meaningful existence at

    all.Secondly, the presumption is thatif you turn the other cheek, youstrengthen the moderates, while ahard response plays into the Armyand the hardliners hands. Thisdeserves closer examination. Eventhe most recalcitrant on our sideamong the friends of Pakistan willconcede that turning the othercheek is more or less what wehave been doing, at least since thedays of the Gujral Doctrine, which

    without the name wascontinued by the subsequent NDA

    and UPA Governments. ThePakistani response was to give usthe Kandahar hijack, the attackon Parliament, train bombings,

    and - the culmination Mumbai26/11. Finally, now there is thebeheading on the LOC, and not forthe first time at that. Onequestion that arises is - how longbefore the moderates will besufficiently strengthened so as togive us some degree of civilisedbehaviour in our bilateral ties?

    The pro-Pakistanis are silent onthis. This is wise on their part, forthe reality is that it is notworking.

    There is another fact to beconsidered here. The Pakistan

    Army has been weakened twice inthe recent past, once in 1971, andagain after the US raid on

    Abbottabad in May 2011. Neitherhappened after the other cheekwas turned; they happened after asuccessful military action againstthe Pakistan Army. And thisillustrates the most fundamentalprinciple of statecraft: you defeatthe authors of a policy when youdefeat their policy. Hitler was notweakened by the policy of appeasement followed byChamberlain; it took pressure andfinally, force, to fix the problem.Our elites, such as they are, areinnocent of statecraft, but they

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    should at least have the humilityto learn from history, our own andthat of other parts of the world.

    The third argument is thesuggestion that this appeasementis really an example of profoundrealism this is an exact quotefrom one of the pro-Pakistanelements in recent days. While onthe subject of realism, it reallyneeds to be emphasised that whatwe have seen in terms of the jointanti-terror mechanism, and theSharm el-Sheikh Statement, withitsincomprehensiblereference toBaluchistan, arehard to defend and

    justify as examplesof realism. Bothideas have beenignored and allowed to lapse in thesubsequent engagement, andamen to that.

    The writer of the above piece goeson to suggest that this policy of profound realism has altered theperception of India and Pakistanin global opinion, and has altered,too, the earlier symmetry betweenthe two countries in the eyes of international opinion, so thatIndia is now seen as the moreattractive and responsible country.This is indeed happening to some

    extent, and is welcome. But thelogic of the argument is highlydoubtful: not more than one in athousand would disagree with the

    proposition that the asymmetry isa result of our economic growth inthe past decade above all,especially contrasted withPakistans poor performance inthis field. Our democracy, our softpower, and our military strength,are the other elements in this mix.Realism does not really make the

    grade. One could make theargument, instead, that theweakness we havedisplayed hasactually worked inPakistans favour.The westernaccommodation of Pakistan over

    Afghanistan isevidence of this. The sad truth isthat all countries, starting withPakistan, take it as a given thatIndia will remain passive in theface of any security challenge, nomatter what.

    And then to be accused of jingoism! That is truly theunkindest cut of all. Here is howthe term originated, in a bar roomsong that was popular in the pubsof London in the late 19 th century.We don't want to fight but by Jingo if we do/ we've got the ships,

    And then to be accused of jingoism! That is truly theunkindest cut of all. Here ishow the term originated, in abar room song that was popularin the pubs of London in thelate 19 th century.

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    we've got the men, we've got the money too. None of our leadershas said anything that evenremotely qualifies to be called

    jingoism. Our Prime Minister,with every show of reluctance, has just said that it cannot be businessas usual with Pakistan. This, too,came after intense TV and popularpressure. The point is that this isthe minimum that any democraticleader could say. And there arealready early hints that we are

    slipping back into opening a high-level dialogue.

    Quite apart from domesticpressure, there is also the straightquestion of what India should do,if we were to follow theprescriptions of the pro-Pakistanelements. What solution do thefriends of Pakistan have to offer?

    A careful search of all thecomment from that side of theargument suggests that there isreally no answer, no solution, tothis. An editorial in amisleadingly-named newspapersuggests the following:

    Not every malaise has a cure; some can only be managed better or worse, and certainly not through indiscriminate blood- letting. I ndias relationship with Pakistan is one of them.

    And that is exactly what is sowrong with the position of the pro-Pakistan segment of our society.Press hard enough and the doves

    have to admit that they have nosolution but to continue to suffer itas long as Pakistan continues todish it out.

    And yet, what the current outragein India shows is that there is alarge body of opinion, neitherhawkish nor dovish, that does notaccept this counsel of defeat. Theproblem with the debate is thatthe pro-Pakistan opinion seeks toposit only a straight two-waychoice. We can either talk, or weare war-mongering. As to talking,the problem is first, that they aregoing nowhere. Clearly, ourprimary interest is in endingterrorism against us, and it mustbe clear to all that this issomething Pakistan will not giveus satisfaction on. Their interest isin Kashmir, and it is clear that wecannot give them satisfaction onthis. Of the other subjects, thetalks have produced only limitedresults, and a good case can bemade for an altogether newplatform for talks in the future.

    This is not war-mongering, as thePakistanis say and their cry hasbeen taken up by the doves inIndia. No, between appeasement

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    and war, there are myriad choices,including, for a start, restrictingthe level and scope of the talksthemselves. There are, besides,

    many economic, diplomatic, andother means available as well. Wecould reduce the sizes of the HighCommissions in the two countries,and that would curb some of theinimical activities of their Mission;we could also pull out of the TAPIproject, which will cripplePakistans energy strategy for the

    future, since no energy project isviable without India as a stablelong-term buyer; there are manyothers as well, including sub-conventional activity, to matchwhat Pakistan has been doing fordecades. In other words, it is timeto try a different mix, and worksome disincentives into the

    formula, since that has beencompletely absent for many yearsnow.

    Lastly, the fact is that no onewants wars. Yet, they do happen.It is unwise in the extreme to beunprepared for such an event,

    especially for one who lives thisclose to a seething cauldron of religious, social, ethnic andeconomic turmoil. This is acontingency that the country mustalso be prepared for.

    [Authors note: the title is a take -off on a description used by one of the most high-profile appeasers,who approvingly quoted adescription of the debates on oneof the TV channels, asdangerously boring, boringlydangerous.]

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    Inhuman Act At LoC : Need For An Appropriate Response

    - Brig (retd) Gurmeet Kanwal

    he Pakistan army'sdastardly and utterlyirresponsible behaviour in

    crossing the LoC, killing Indiansoldiers and mutilating their

    bodies in an inhuman manner including the ruthless beheadingof one soldier is reprehensibleand worthy of condemnation in thestrongest terms.

    During the Kargil conflict in 1999too, the Pakistan army hadreturned badly mutilated bodies of

    Indian soldiers and had earned foritself the infamous epithet roguearmy. Such incidents serve tofurther damage the dubiousprofessional reputation of an armythat has repeatedly let down itsnation while claiming to be thesole saviour of Pakistans identityand its territorial integrity.

    However, there is need for ameasured Indian response at thediplomatic and military levels asthe incident is in all probability alow-level violation of military

    ethics and conventions. Indiashould demand the speedy trial of the soldiers involved in the brutalkillings. If Pakistans response isunsatisfactory, India shouldsuspend further discussion of peace and security and military

    confidence building measures(CBMs) in the resumed dialogueprocess. If Pakistan continues tostall on this issue like it has beendragging its feet on bringing tobook the perpetrators of theMumbai terror strikes inNovember 2008, the entire eight-point dialogue should be

    suspended.The aim of initiating appropriatemilitary measures should be toinflict deterrent punishment sothat the Pakistan army learns theright lessons from its repeatedviolation of the code of conduct of military operations. Several direct

    and indirect military options canbe exercised without undulyescalating the exchanges todangerous levels. The mostsuitable response would be to raze

    T

    * Brig (retd) Gurmeet Kanwal - Visiting Fellow, VIF

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    to the ground the forward post of the 29 Baloch Regiment of thePakistani Army from which thevicious attack took place. This

    should be done through theemployment of direct firingweapons like bunker bustingmissiles and rocket launchers aswell as devastating artillery andmortar fire.

    As had been amply demonstratedduring the Kargil conflict, Indiahas a preponderance of artilleryfirepower even if the guns arebordering on obsolescence andthis capabilitymust be put to use.The guns are acustodian of thelast resort of thecountrys bordersand send anunmistakable message when sucha message is needed to be sent.The Pakistan army will retaliatebut cannot hope to match India ina long-drawn exchange of artilleryfire. Simultaneously, SpecialForces must be used to degradethe Pakistan armys logisticsinfrastructure in the areas behindthe rogue post, while remainingprepared for all contingencies thatmight arise.

    Over the last three years andparticularly in the summer of

    2012, infiltration levels fromacross the LoC have risen sharply.The Pakistan army has beenviolating the cease-fire with

    impunity to push through itsJihadis under the cover of fire. Itis obvious that protests at thediplomatic level have failed toelicit a positive response. It is nowtime to act decisively. Themessage must go home that whileIndia has no grouse against thePakistani people, its armys

    cruelty will no longer becountenanced.

    The people of Indiaexpect thegovernment to

    respondappropriately. Thegovernment must

    convincinglydemonstrate that there is a limitto Indian tolerance. The sacrificemade by the soldiers who havebeen martyred must not go invain.

    The Pakistan army has much to

    lose by activating the largely quietIndian border when it is engagedin fighting major internal securitychallenges, even as the Pakistangovernment has been embroiled incountering continuing political

    The people of India expect thegovernment to respondappropriately. The governmentmust convincingly demonstratethat there is a limit to Indiantolerance.

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    turbulence, judicial activism,sectarian clashes and a stagnatingeconomy.

    The Pakistan army is facing,perhaps, its deepest crisis since itsstrategic blunder in Kargil. Itscounter-insurgency policy hasbeen unsuccessful and casualtieshave been mounting. The use of air strikes and helicopter gunshipsto attack terrorist hideouts hasproved to be counter-productive.The Pakistan army has beenforced by the TTP to wage a three-front "war": against the TTP andthe Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) in SouthWaziristan; against the anti-ShiaLashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) in thesensitive Darra Adam Khel-Kohatarea of Khyber-Pakhtoonwa[formerly NWFP] and the Shia-dominated Kurram Agency of FATA; and, against the Tehrik-e-Nifaz-Shariat-e-Mohammadi(TNSM), headed by MaulanaFazlullah, and the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) shelteringacross the Durand Line in

    Afghanistan.

    Though it has flirted with peacedeals with the militants, the armyfinds it impossible to meet thedemands of the TTP and theTNSM. According to B. Raman, anoted counter-terrorism expert,

    these demands include thesuspension of all militaryoperations in the tribal areas; thewithdrawal of army posts from the

    FATA; the release of all tribalsarrested under the Anti-Terrorism Act; the release of Maulana Abdul Aziz Ghazi and tribal studentsarrested during the commandoaction in the Lal Masjid of Islamabad in July 2007; and,enforcement of the Sharia in thetribal areas.

    The US and its allies have becomeincreasingly more frustrated byPakistans failure to deal with alQaeda and Taliban militantslaunching raids on US and NATOtroops across the Durand Line.The Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US and other officialshave been meeting GeneralKayani frequently to impress onhim the need to be more pro-activein counter-insurgency operations.Unilateral trans-borderintervention against militantsinside Pakistani territory by theUS is continuing through dronestrikes. President Obama maysoon approve trans-border groundaction through Special Forces.Under these circumstances, itwould be grossly illogical for thePakistan army to activate the LoCwith India.

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    The Pakistan army must makeamends for its grossly unethical

    conduct and completely stopfurther violations of the cease-firealong the LoC. It must also stopsponsoring terrorism, as promisedby Musharraf in January 2003, orelse it must be ready to faceretaliation. General BikramSingh, the Indian Army Chief,said during his press conferenceon the eve of Army Day that Indiareserved the right to retaliate at atime and point of its choosing. TheIAF Chief has also stated that if Pakistans response is inadequate,other options will have to beconsidered. The Indian army hasfelt for long that the only placewhere it can gainfully hit back atthe Pakistan army is at the LoCand it would make full use of abreakdown in the cease-fire. No

    one in India wants a completereversal of the gains of the last tenyears during diplomaticnegotiations. However, when the

    need for self respect and nationaldignity is weighed against thegains of diplomacy, the balancewill weigh heavily in favour of national dignity.

    Pakistans political turmoil,internal instability, a flounderingeconomy and weak institutionsmake for an explosive mix. It isapparent to even lay observersthat the country is in for stillgreater difficulties ahead. Itsleadership would do well to bringdown the tension on the LoC.

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    India - China Cultural Interface: An Agenda For Future

    - Brig (retd) Vinod Anand & Dr. Anirban Ganguly

    oth India and have Chinahave fascinated each other -culturally, religiously and

    civilisationally over the past two

    millennia. Across the centuries thetwo great civilisations havecontinually communicated witheach other and, until recent times,had seen a peaceful co-existencefor over two thousand years. AsIndian historian of worldcivilisations, D.P. Singhalobserves, this amicable

    relationship may have beennurtured by the close historicaland religious ties of Buddhismintroduced to China by Indianmonks at a very early stage of their respective histories. (India and World Civilisation, vol.1London, 1969). Chinese scholars insearch of wisdom and deeply

    motivated by the quest of knowledge undertook some of themost arduous continental journeysto India. Indian scholars andteachers similarly travelled toChina, taught there, were revered,

    feted and established themselvesas knowledge-lighthouses. Thecivilisational exchange andinterface thus began and wasenhanced by centuries of interaction. In fact, India andChina formed a formidable

    civilisational and cultural coalitionlong before the rise of the West.One of Indias veteran diplomatsand former foreign secretary,K.P.S. Menon (1898-1982) onceput the relation in perspective,when he said tha t, The hall markof intercourse of Sino-Indianrelations is cultural intercourse

    and affinity. The two greatpeoples, wedded to civilized livingin the ways of peace, naturallyfind in the exchange of culture thetruest expression of their being.Not for them the covetous eyes of neither rapacious plunder norterritorial aggrandizement. (MyTribute to Tan-Yun- Shan in Tan

    Chung ed., In the Footsteps of Xuanzang: Tan Yun-Shan and India, New Delhi, 1999).

    Economic and cultural exchangesbetween the two civilisations have

    B

    * Brig (retd) Vinod Anand - Senior Fellow, VIF & Dr. Anirban Ganguly - Associate Fellow, VIF

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    been traced back at least to theQin (221-206BC) and Han (202BC-220AD) dynasties. The celebratedepics of India, Ramayana and

    Mahabharata, contain numerousreferences to China. TheMahabharata in fact refers toChina several times andmentions, for example, thepresents brought by the Chinesefor the Rajasuya Yagna (coronation) of the Pandavas. Thefamous Arthasastra, Manusmriti

    too mentions China. Legendaryhistorian of Asiancivilizations, RenGrousset (1885-1952), argued thatthe name Chinacame from anancient Sanskritname for the

    regions to the east,and not, as oftensupposed, from the name of thestate of Chin. It would beinteresting to look at some of thesesuggestions made on the origins of the name from the civilisationalcontact dimension. The Sanskritname Cina, it has been proposed,may have been inspired from thesmall state of that name Chan-si(Shan-si) in the northwest of China, which thrived in the fourthcentury B.C. Pointing at anotherclue, other scholars have arguedthat the Greek word for China

    Tzinista, may have been derivedfrom the Sanskrit Chinasthana. (Singhal, op.cit) I see no reason todoubt, commented sinologist

    Arthur Waley (1889-1966) in hisbook, The Way and its Power ,that the 'holy mountain -men'(sheng-hsien ) described by LiehTzu are Indian rishis; and whenwe read in Chuang Tzu of certainTaoists who practiced movementsvery similar to the asanas of Hindu yoga, it is at least a

    possibility that some knowledge of the yoga techniquewhich these rishisused had alsodrifted into China.(Cited in Singhal,op.cit)

    Over ten centuriesago, Chinesemonks Xuan Zang

    (Hsuan Tsang) and Fa Xian (FaHsien) journeyed to India forBuddhist scriptures andknowledge, while renowned Indianmonks Kumarajiva andBodhidharma spread Buddhistteachings in China. In moderntimes, Professor Tan Yun-Shan(1898-1983), the indefatigabledirector of the Cheena Bhavan at

    Visva-Bharati, Santiniketan,symbolised the continuance of thisancient civilisational-culturalquest through his life and mission.

    The Mahabharata in factrefers to China several timesand mentions, for example, thepresents brought by theChinese for the Rajasuya Yagna (coronation) of thePandavas. The famous

    Arthasastra, Manusmriti too

    mentions China.

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    In what can perhaps be termed asone of the most significantdescription and tribute to thesecommon cultural and civilisational

    ties between the two countries,Tan Yun-Shan, while addressingscholars and students atSantiniketan in the presence of Rabindranath Tagore, observed:

    India and China are naturally apair of sister countries. Theirsimilarities and their associationsare great, numerous, andintimate. Looking over thegeography and history of all thenations in the world, we find thereare not any other two nations thatcan be compared to our twocountries. This is true from everyrespect and from every standard of observation and judgment. Ourtwo countries, both situated in thebright and glorious continent of

    Asia, India to the south-west andChina to the north-east, spreadout lordly in different directionsbut yet are linked up at the mainline, just like the two wheels of acarriage or the two wings of a bird,and, even better to say, like thetwo hands and feet or the two earsand eyes of a person. And theHimalayas, gigantic and majestic,brilliant and magnificent, exactlyresemble the common backbone, orthe shoulders, or the neck, andalso the nerve system of theirs.

    Though their boundaries aremarked off, yet the physical shapeis similar. (Cultural Interchanges between India and China in Tan -

    Chung, op.cit.)

    For historical and geopoliticalreasons, there was a hiatus in thiscivilisational interaction, whileboth India and China suffered theeffects of colonialism and Westernimperialism. It brought about aninterruption, a break and aneventual cessation in thisinteraction. Both were preoccupiedin dealing with and then resistingcolonial and imperialist forces. Buteven here, the link had notcompletely ceased. China andIndia extended each other mutualsupport in the fight againstcolonial rule and the struggle fornational independence andliberation. In 1937, the IndianNational Congress issued astatement condemning theJapanese invasion of China.Doctor Dwarkanath Kotnistravelled all the way to China as amember of an Indian medical aidteam and devoted his life to thecause of the liberation of theChinese people. As a leading lightof the University of Calcutta, Dr.Syama Prasad Mookerjee, later tobecome Industries Minister in free

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    Indias first cabinet, facilitatedacademic and cultural exchangebetween the two countries byinviting scholars from China to

    come and stay in Calcutta andstudy Indian culture andlanguages. After liberation, aperiod saw some progress at tryingto renew this link.

    In the 1950s, China-Indiarelations developed smoothly andthe two countries co-initiated thefamous Panchsheel, the FivePrinciples of Peaceful Co-existence, whichare still recognisedas the basicprinciples of internationalrelations. But otherpolitical andhistorical issuesintervened andinterrupted, for long decades, thisphase of cultural re-forging.

    But eventually a process of recovery started. Thanks to their

    joint efforts, China and Indiadiplomatic, trade and people-to-people exchanges were revived inthe mid-1970s. The Indian PrimeMinisters visit to China in 1988made a breakthrough in bilateralrelations. In the 1990s, high-levelvisits between the two countriesincreased, and cooperation in

    various fields made steadyprogress. Two agreements weresigned for the maintenance of peace and tranquillity and

    confidence-building measures intheir border areas. In May 1998came the Agreement on CulturalCooperation which provided forthe implementation of anexecutive Cultural ExchangeProgramme (CEP). Thereafter,CEPs have been signed whichprovide an apt space for

    cooperation in a gamut of culturalareas includingexchanges of visitsof artists, officials,writers, archivistsand archaeologists,organising cultural

    festivals,exchanges in the

    field of massmedia, youthaffairs and sports. In June 2003, aMoU was signed on reciprocalbasis for setting up of CulturalCentres in the two capitals.

    In a symbolic continuation of thisgradual progress in furtherreactivating cultural ties in 2007,the restored Xuanzang MemorialHall was inaugurated at Nalanda,in Bihar. The then Chinese foreignminister, who led a 110 memberdelegation to the ceremony, hadthen underlined the need for the

    In the 1950s, China-Indiarelations developed smoothlyand the two countries co-initiated the famousPanchsheel, the Five Principlesof Peaceful Co-existence, whichare still recognised as the basicprinciples of international

    relations.

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    two countries to work together.Let us begin from this beautifulexample he had then said. Theyear 2007 was also declared the

    'Year of China-India TourismFriendship'. In May 2010, anIndian-style Buddhist Temple inthe International Garden on thewest side of the White HorseTemple in Luoyang, which wasbuilt by India over a period of fiveyears, was dedicated to the peopleof China. Combining ancient

    principles of design and moderntechnology, the Rs.18 crore edificewas a unique gift from India andrepresented a bridge to the 2000years old civilisational tiesbetween the two people. Whileinaugurating the temple, the thenPresident of India had observedthat, Luoyang is widely

    considered to be a cradle of theChinese civilisation.... Historicallyit (the White Horse temple) hasthe unique distinction of symbolising an intermingling of Indian and Chinese culturesIam confident that the Indian-styled temple will also beperceived by generations to comeas a testimony of our friendship.

    A Centre for Indian Studies wasalso inaugurated in PekingUniversity and ShenzhenUniversity as also an annual

    Visiting Chair in the Humanities

    and Social Sciences on 18 June2008. The first visiting Indianprofessor has taken over theassignment in Shenzhen

    University. A bilateral EducationExchange Programme (EEP) alsoexists for exchange of scholars,mutual recognition of academicdegrees, cooperation in the field of teachers training, exchangesbetween higher educationinstitutions, and exchanges of Hindi and Chinese language

    teachers. Some Chineseuniversities and educationalinstitutions have also entered intoMoUs for information, faculty andstudent exchanges with Indiancounterparts. An increasingnumber of Chinese students arealso coming to India forundergraduate studies. The two

    governments also annually offer25 scholarships each under theCEP; though meagre and in needof urgent numerical revision, thiswas also a step forward incementing academic collaboration.

    Some travelling exhibitions byboth sides have been organised ineach others cit ies to promotecultural awareness. TheGovernments of India and Chinahave also organised the Festivalof India in China and the Festivalof China in India. Perhaps thetime has now come for both India

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    and China, aspiring to re-emergeas great powers on the worldstage, to actively renew andreinvent those past cultural and

    historic links. Both have in themhuge cultural reservoirs that couldconsiderably enhance theiremergence. A few pointers topossible measures in this directioncan perhaps further facilitate theexploration for culturalcooperation and interface.

    The following arerecommendations which, if implemented, would strengthenIndia-China cultural relationshipso that cultural ties can contributeto improving relations between thetwo countries.

    1. A Joint Cultural-Cooperation-Committee(JCCC) could be officially setup to look into developing aframework of extensive andintensive culturalcooperation with a long termobjective in mind. Without a

    joint framework, cultural

    cooperation initiatives willlack a defined objective andsystematic progress. Therespective Ministries of Culture should be tasked totake this forward. In India,

    an officer at the level of JointSecretary can be maderesponsible for coordinatingand monitoring the entire

    effort. Eminent personalitiesfrom the field of culture,academia and media will bemembers of this Committee.

    Various joint sub-committeescan be formed to takeforward the work in theareas enumerated below.These sub-committees will

    periodically report to thenodal central JCCC theprogress of the projectsundertaken.

    2. A systematic programme forcollaboration betweenleading Culturalorganisations on either sideneeds to be drawn up. Mere

    travelling exhibitions willnot suffice. The formation of a Cultural Exhibition ExpertCommittee with membersfrom both countries to lookinto the conceptualizing,planning and coordinating of these exhibitions can be aninteresting step forward inthis. Leading curators andart historians from eitherside could be involved in thework.

    3. Increased Museum toMuseum contacts,diversification of exhibitions

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    to areas such as: handicrafts,textiles, music, artifacts,artisanal exchanges,exhibitions of cultural

    products from rural Indiaand some other areas. Indiais rich in such diverseproducts and the experiencecan be really enriching forthe Chinese. A Joint-Museum Committee can beformed to oversee thisaspect.

    4. Festivals of India in Chinaand of China in India can beplanned more frequentlywith increased scope. TheIndian Council of CulturalRelations (ICCR) is doingsomething in this regard butthis needs to be furtherenhanced and diversified.

    Enhancing understanding of Chinese culture in India andIndian culture in Chinashould be the principalobjective of this exercise.

    5. Joint effort in preservingtangible heritage can beundertaken. India and Chinacan take an initiative inproviding expertise for thepreservation of heritagemonuments that symboliseIndia-China cultural andcivilisational links. Sitessuch as these can beidentified all over India and

    China, and a jointcollaborative group can beset up to study the status of these and the possibilities of

    cooperation in theirpreservation.6. The Chinese Academy of

    Social Sciences (CASS) andleading Indian institutionssuch as the Indian Council of Social Science Research(ICSSR) can develop a seriesof collaborative efforts in

    various areas of research onChinese and Indian societalevolution and issues. TheIndian Council of HistoricalResearch (ICHR), the apexbody for historical researchin India, can also draw up aseries of collaborativeprojects with leading

    Chinese institutions of historical research.Exchange of scholars,collaborative projects onpreservation anddissemination of manuscripts that highlightpast cultural exchanges,forming a joint data-bank of these can be undertaken andthen further diversified. Itmay be an interesting areawhere an increased culturalcooperation can make animpact. Indias flagship effortin this direction, the

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    National Mission forManuscripts (NMM) isalready doing work in thearea of preserving and

    discovering historicalmanuscripts andepigraphical material.Collaboration with the NMMwill enrich the epigraphicalreserves of both thecountries. The Indira GandhiNational Centre for the Arts(IGNCA) in New Delhi has

    also been working in thisarea especially inhighlighting and studyingthe India-China culturallink. The IGNCA has beencollecting material on pastChinese scholars who werefascinated by India andcontributed to the

    understanding of the twopeople and civilisations. Ithas, for instance, extensivelychronicled and documentedthe works of Professor Tan

    Yuan Shan, a true cultural Ambassador of China inIndia. Efforts could be madeto further document andcommemorate such pastinitiatives. Universities inboth countries that havecultural studies centres needto collaborate and create aconsortium of such centres.

    7. China has been taking partin Indias efforts at creatingthe new NalandaInternational University.

    The aim is to revive theancient seat of Buddhistlearning in the present dayBihar, as a modern centre of knowledge. A similar sisterproject could be conceived inChina in some ancientBuddhist or Confucian seatof learning, or any other

    historical area closelyidentified with the growth of China as a great civilisation.India could be asked to takethe initiative in setting upsuch a university incollaboration with theChinese ministry of education. Gradually

    neighbouring countries canalso be invited to be part of the cultural-educationalinitiative. Such a project maynot necessarily be in theform of a university but canbe conceived as a centre forcultural research andeducation that will impartspecial courses on Indianand Chinese culture,language and civilisation andmay also confer recogniseddegrees. In short, it maybecome a centre for trainingand developing cultural

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    ambassadors for bothcountries.

    8. Media Study Centres can beset up in leading

    Universities in eithercountry. Collaborative effortsat documentary production,educational film making andeven mainstream filmindustries in both countriescan be explored.

    9. A lot can be learnt fromChinas model of sports and

    physical education. TheBeijing Olympicsdemonstratedthat muchcould belearnt fromthe Chinesemodel andretailored to

    Indianconditionsand objectives. A close anddynamic cooperationframework between the twosports ministries could beworked out in this respect.The Sports Authority of India (SAI) can take aleading initiative in thismatter. Since India has astruggling programme of general physical education,the Chinese model can bestudied for its adaptability toIndia. Systematic exchange

    programmes of physicaleducation experts, coachesand leading sportspersonalities can take place

    with a defined schedule to befollowed. In the early 1950s,India had implemented suchan exchange programmewith the then USSR and ithad a remarkable effect inincreasing the interest insports in the country.

    The above are but broad pointerswhich, if given adequate and

    sustained thoughtand planning, couldlaunch and furtherstrengthen effortsat civilisational

    bridge-building.The agenda of

    India-Chinacultural interface

    for the future offers a varied scopefor collaboration and exchange. A dynamic outreach and initiativemust come from both sides inorder to take the collaboration tothe next stage. Such a step wouldcertainly be for a larger purposeand benefit. Professor Tan Yun-Shan perhaps foresaw the futurewhen he said, pointing to thisneed:

    We Indians and Chinese mustwake up at once, and restore our

    A lot can be learnt from Chinasmodel of sports and physicaleducation. The BeijingOlympics demonstrated thatmuch could be learnt from theChinese model and retailored toIndian conditions andobjectives.

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    old national relationship. By theinterchange of our cultures, weshall achieve our culturalrenaissance; by cultural

    renaissance we shall create a newworld civilization; and by the newcivilization we shall relieve allmankind. Our two countrieshaving made a glorious world inthe past, can't we make again aglorious world in the future?

    The above text is an updated and modified version of the

    presentation made at Shenzen University, PRC during the conference The Fourth China - South Asia Cultural Forum organized by Chinese Peoples

    Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries from November,14-17, 2012 at Centre for Indian Studies, Shenzen University.

    Back to Contents

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    RBI Relented Under Pressure For ARate Cut

    - V Anantha Nageswaran

    euters has a news-itemwith the followingheadline: India's finance minister P. Chidambaram

    is putting welfare, defence, atomic energy and road projects under the knife in a final attempt to hit a tough fiscal deficit target by March, risking short-term economic growth and angering cabinet colleagues. Separately, awell-known investment house has

    just published a report on theprospect for the governmentachieving a fiscal deficit ratio of 5.3% of the GDP in the financial

    year, 2012-13. Based onassumptions about the amount of money that the government couldraise from spectrum re-auction tobe held on March 11, from furthersale of government stake in publicsector undertakings and fromexpenditure compression, thereport cheerfully predicts that the

    government could achieve a deficitratio of 5.3% of the GDP.

    The fiscal deficit ratio was 5.9% of the GDP in 2011-12 and the target

    was 5.1% for 2012-13. Thedifference between 5.3% and 6.0%of the GDP is deferment of payment from the government forunder-recoveries to oil companiesand to fertiliser companies.Deferment of subsidies andcompression of expenditure arenot credible fiscal deficit reductionmeasu res. The governments fuelpricing reforms have beennegated for this year by the rise inthe cap on subsidised cylindersfrom six to nine cylinders. Thatoffsets the steady monthlyincrease of 50 paise per litre in the

    retail price of diesel at least forthree months.

    There is also another issue tocontend with. Bulk consumers of diesel are expected to pay themarket price of diesel. Recentnews articles have recorded thediversion of retail supplies to bulkusers as they balk at paying ahigher price. If they do, either theybecome unviable or have to passon price increases to their end-users, setting off a rise in other

    R

    * V Anantha Nageswaran - Visiting Fellow, VIF

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    prices too. Some of the users whoare resorting to showing up at theretail petrol station to buy dieselare State road transport

    corporations, shopping malls andhotels. The Delhi International Airport is in a quandary. It is abulk user. Its cost will risesubstantially. If it pays more, itwill pass on the costs to thepassengers and the airlines. Bothwill not be amused. Consideranother and sadder case:

    The textile industry in Tamil Nadu, which accounts for over one-third of the total production in the country, directly employs over five million people, and earns over Rs 50,000 crore in foreign exchange every year, is at its wits end. S Dinakaran, chairman of The Southern India Mills

    Association, claims that spinning mills in the state have reduced their power generation (from diesel, of course) from 1,500-1,600 Mw to almost 1,000 Mw after the subsidy was removed for bulk buyers. The cost of producing

    yarn, he says, has gone up by Rs 4 a kg .(Source :http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/diesel-drama/500747/ ).

    Of course, these problems areinevitable. There are no cost-freesolutions for an importing country

    if global oil prices are high andrising. There will be a hit toeconomic growth and sectors haveto think of innovative solutions, if

    they can. Some will fail. It is anunfortunate but inevitableconsequence. What can be faultedis the failure of governments toprovide for infrastructure such asadequate and reliable powersupply, forcing businesses and thepublic to rely on diesel to generatetheir own electricity and then

    finding themselves stymied evenin that endeavour.

    Further, the introduction of dualpricing for commodities is fraughtwith such inherent risks of diversion and distortion.Similarly, the government raisingimport duties on gold has broughtback smuggling and a blackmarket in gold. These economiccosts have to be taken intoconsideration when one analysesthe recent fiscal consolidationmeasures of the government.Notwithstanding these sector-specific pains, if real fiscalconsolidation was achieved, thenone could be somewhat assuaged.What the government saves on theone hand will be given awaythrough the other hand, as the fullimpact of the fiscal burdenentailed by the Right to Food(Food Security Bill) will be felt in

    http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/diesel-drama/500747/http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/diesel-drama/500747/http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/diesel-drama/500747/http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/diesel-drama/500747/http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/diesel-drama/500747/http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/diesel-drama/500747/http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/diesel-drama/500747/http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/diesel-drama/500747/
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    the financial year 2014-15. Inother words, genuine fiscalconsolidation in India remains aselusive as ever. Cheerleading of

    the superficial fiscal consolidationefforts in the media and elsewhereonly helps to obfuscate the issue.They also create the risk thatinvestors are taken by surprisewhen the reality cannot bedeferred any further.

    Why is such a lengthy discussionimportant to the consideration of the decision by the Reserve Bankof India to cut rates on January29? One of themotivatingarguments for therate cut was that thegovernment had agrip on the fiscaldeficit. The secondone is that the non-food manufacturing wholesaleprice inflation rate had declined tobelow 5%. Hence, the ReserveBank of India not only reduced therepo and reverse repo rates by 25basis points to 7.75% and 6.75%respectively, but also cut the CashReserve Ratio (CRR) to 4.0% from4.25%.Many criticise the Reserve Bank of India for coming up with ad-hocexplanations for its decisions thatvary from meeting to meeting. Inother words, the RBI is criticised

    for lacking a framework. The truthis that the central bank does havea framework. If it went by thatframework, it would be unable to

    cut the interest rate for quite sometime. In other words, there is noroom to cut rates. Consumer priceinflation is in double digits, thefiscal deficit is far from undercontrol and the current accountdeficit suggests that the rupeeneeded interest rate support toinduce foreigners to hold rupee-

    denominated assets.The reason that the RBI referred

    to the high retailinflation rate fornot cutting ratesin December andthen to the lowinflation rate inthe wholesaleprices of non-food

    manufactured goods in Januaryfor cutting rates is that it is actingagainst its sound instincts andframework when it cuts rates.Hence, the central bank soundsad-hoc and arbitrary. Further, thecentral bank is right to cite thehigh external deficit as thelimiting factor for future rate cuts.Into 2013-14, twin deficits willremain a risk factor for Indianeconomic growth, for a meaningfulreduction in short and long-terminterest rates, for Indias credit

    In other words, genuine fiscalconsolidation in India remainsas elusive as ever. Cheerleadingof the superficial fiscalconsolidation efforts in themedia and elsewhere only helpsto obfuscate the issue.

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    rating and for the Indian rupee. Itis unclear as to what foreigninstitutional investors arecelebrating by following up on

    their net investments in Indianstocks of up to 24.5 billion USdollars into Indian stocks in 2012with another 4.6 billion dollars in

    January. Of course, their myopiais not restricted to Indian stocksand markets. It is universal andthat is another topic for another

    occasion.Back to Contents

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    Systemic Failure Or Organ Failure? - Dr M N Buch

    he Chambers Twenty-firstDictionary, which is quitean authoritative lexicon,

    describes system in the followingwords, A set of inter -connected orinter-related parts forming acomplex whole. The wordsystemic is defined as referringor relating to a whole organism.Organ is defined as, A part of abody or plant which has a specialfunction, e.g. a kidney, a leaf.Therefore, when an organ fails itis an individual part whichbecomes inoperative and, perhaps,with proper treatment the organ,or part, can either be repaired ormade functional, or it can bereplaced. A systemic failure,however, would be much moreserious because in such a situationthe entire system, or the complexwhole consisting of individualorgans, begins to give way andthis can lead to what can only becalled termination which isirreversible. Here all the organseither seriatim or collectively fail.The situation can still be retrievedby repair or replacement. Thequestion which faces India today iswhether our body politic is facing

    organ failures or is it that we are alooking at a system failure?

    The total system under whichIndia operates is what is providedin the Constitution. The bodypolitic consists of three majorsubsystems, the Executive, theLegislature and the Judiciary

    which together constitute thewhole system called the IndianState. Within the overall systemand the sub-systems, there are anumber of organs which arerequired to perform specificfunctions. Schools and colleges arerequired to impart education,medical institutions are meant to

    look after the health of citizens,the Income Tax Department issupposed to collect taxes levied bythe Legislature, the AgricultureDepartment is meant to promoteagriculture, and the Police arerequired to create an overallenvironment of security and forthat purpose to maintain law and

    order, prevent, detect andprosecute crime, guard the countryagainst acts of terrorism andgenerally reassure people thatthey can go about their normal

    T

    * Dr M N Buch - Visiting Fellow, VIF

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    vocations in peace. This functionaldistribution of responsibilityapplies to all the organs of theState and to all levels of public

    servants, elected or appointed.Sometimes a particularorganisation or department fails tolive up to our expectations. Somecivil servants do not carry outtheir duties faithfully. Quite often,even at subsystem level, there isfailure, such as the virtual lock outof Parliament that we have

    witnessed for thelast few months.Sometimes thecitizens themselvesare so annoyedwith a particularorgan of the Statethat they reactstrongly and,

    therefore, there is ahiatus betweenpublic servants andpeople at large. These areaberrations which will crop upfrom time to time in any system,but the system itself has to beresilient enough to apply self-correcting measures so that theorgan which is faltering is broughtback on track. Organ failure iscorrectable but when the self correcting mechanism fails it canhave a cascading effect on thefunctioning of organs and anunchecked failure of one organ can

    cause other organs to come understress and fall. This can lead tosystemic failure, which has to beavoided at any cost.

    How sound are our systems?Because the republic is founded ondemocracy and the fact that everyfive years people do exercise theirfranchise in an environment whichis basically free of fear means thatdemocracy has taken very deeproots in India. Democracy,

    therefore, becomesthe very base, thevery foundation onwhich the systemrests and thisfoundation cannotbe destroyed. Thisdoes not mean thatthe superstructure,which correspondswith the organs of a system, cannot bedamaged, but

    systemic failure cannot take placeunless the foundations themselvescrack. The foundations of Indiandemocracy are stable and safe andthis can be categorically proved bythe failure of the State of Emergency which Indira Gandhideclared in 1975 and had tohastily withdraw in 1977. This isone side of the story, but the otherside is that if organs fail andcorrective measures are not taken

    Democracy, therefore, becomesthe very base, the veryfoundation on which thesystem rests and thisfoundation cannot bedestroyed. This does not meanthat the superstructure, whichcorresponds with the organs of a system, cannot be damaged,but systemic failure cannottake place unless thefoundations themselves crack.

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    in time, cumulatively this can leadto a system failure. There aremany critics, many pessimists,who say that this is beginning to

    take place increasingly and thatwe are in danger of systemicfailure. People with extremistviews go to the extent of sayingthat the systems themselves arerotten and we should scrap themand create new systems. InRussia, the Tsarist Governmentand the Tsarist system had

    become rotten and, therefore, theRussian Revolution took place andImperial Russia became theCommunist ruled Soviet Union.Every organ of the old regime wasdestroyed.

    The problem with revolutions isthat they quite often go againstthe established nature of thingsand, in turn, they themselves fail.Two glaring examples of this areRussia today and the modernPeoples Republic of China. Withinseventy years of establishment theSoviet Union broke up anddisappeared, to be replaced by theRussian Federation which hasmoved away from the one-partyrule of the Communist Party of theSoviet Union to something whichis attempting to resemble westernmulti party democracy. TheCentral Asian Republics havebroken away from the Soviet

    Union and its successor State,Russia, as have Ukraine, Belarus,Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, andthe Caucasian Republics of

    Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia.The system failed and the countrysplit.

    The second example is of China,where Maos revolutiontransformed a rotten Kuo MinTang governed China to a PeoplesRepublic, which consolidated thecountry but also brought it underharsh one-party rule. Today,however, the picture has changedand is continuing to change.Under Deng Xiaoping and hissuccessors, China has moved awayfrom an extreme Left Wing form of communism and insteadwholeheartedly embraced thecapitalist economic system.Politically China has remainedunder one-party rule and thetension is apparent between aneconomic system which is liberaland a political system which isstill rooted in the shibboleths of Marx, Lenin and Mao. Yet, thiscountry has accepted Hong Kongand Macau, former British andPortuguese colonies, as part of China but following their oldpolitical systems. Here revolutionhas turned to evolution, which haskept the country intact and willprobably drive it closer to liberal

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    ideas of political organisation,though not necessarily theWestminster or the Americanmodel of democracy. This country

    is to be watched very carefully, notso much because it is now aneconomic powerhouse but becausepolitical changes are taking placewhich may have very far reachingeffects globally.

    It is in the context of what theholders of extreme views on howthe Indian State functions have tosay about scrapping the systemthat I have broughtup the positionprevailing inRussia and China.The Indian systemof change isevolutionary ratherthan revolutionaryand, therefore, the change tends tobe seamless, painless and verylong lasting. For those with shortmemories I would like to drawtheir attention to what JawaharlalNehru and S.K.Dey achievedthrough the CommunityDevelopment Programme. ColonialIndia with its highly regulatoryadministration was launched onthe path of development,especially rural development, byco-opting the people of our villagesinto an effort to galvanise ruralsociety and unleash people

    oriented, people driven ruraldevelopment. Without anyonerealizing it, India evolved thesystem of development blocks,

    each headed by an officerspecifically dedicated to thedevelopment agenda. Theregulatory mechanism of the tehsiland district remained, but a newunit of administration, the blockwhich was coterminous withtehsils in States which had smalltehsils and with more than one

    block per tehsil where the tehsilwas large and could be segmentedinto more than oneblock. Extensionofficers in variousdisciplines wereposted in eachblock. The BDOwas equivalent in

    rank to theTehsildar, but because thedevelopment administrationstructure was separated fromrevenue administration, whichcould be called coercive to anextent, we had a new cadre of officials who were accountable tothe people at block level andwhose only agenda wasimprovement of the ruraleconomy. Setting up a paralleldevelopment administrationwithout reducing the importanceof the regulatory administrationwas a remarkable achievement

    It is in the context of what theholders of extreme views onhow the Indian State functionshave to say about scrapping thesystem that I have brought upthe position prevailing inRussia and China.

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    and India can take great pride inthis. It is on this foundation thatthe subsequent panchayati Rajsystem has been created. This

    evolutionary form of passing realpower to the people through thePanchayats is an achievement of which India can be justifiablyproud. Had we abolished the tehsiland created only a developmentadministration we would probablyhave had the chaos that nowprevails in Pakistan where half

    baked reforms virtually destroyedthe district administration withouta parallel Panchayat system totake over. This step disconnectedthe police from accountability tothe Magistracy and converted theDeputy Commissioner of a districtto a District Coordinating Officerwith virtually no coordinating

    powers, has led to administrativechaos. Our method is better.

    The recent debate has originatedfrom the unfortunate rape of ayoung woman in a moving bus inDelhi and her subsequent death,which has led to an outburst of horror and rage against themanner in which the Indian Stateis functioning. People areabsolutely fed up with crime,especially against women and therape of the young lady has led towidespread public revulsion anddemand for action. People want

    modified lynch law to apply, theyare attacking the police, the

    judiciary and the legislature forfailure to enact tough laws and to

    enforce them and they wantsweeping changes in the organs of the State which would amount tosystemic changes. The anger of thepeople is understandable, butwhat is not understandable is themanner in which government hashandled the whole matter. Whatthe people needed was

    reassurance from the highestofficials of the State, including thePresident and Prime Minister,that in the instant case therewould be swift justice, in generalthere would be a tightening of security and law enforcement insuch a way that law breakersbegin to have fear of the law and

    that the general securityenvironment would be improved sothat everyone in India, especiallywomen, has the right to effectiveprotection of laws. This demand isabsolutely justified and hadgovernment taken stepsimmediately which could convincethe people that government isserious, the things whichhappened in Delhi when theprotests started would not havetaken place. If the President, thePrime Minister or the HomeMinister, as also the LieutenantGovernor of Delhi had not

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    sheltered behind police barricadesand had come to Vijay Chowk totalk to the protesters, not onlywould the people be reassured but

    the agitation itself would haveended. None of these functionariesthought it fit to meet the people,not within the four walls of theirown office but in the open wherepeople could congregate aroundthem. A little courage shown bythe leaders would have defusedthe situation immediately, but

    then we are ruled by insensitivepeople who are also cowards. Thisis a prime exampleof the executiveorgan of the Statenot performing itsduty and to someextent thisamounts to an

    organ failure.However, it isremediable if for the future thelesson is learnt and theadministration goes out of its wayto meet people, hear them andthen provides suitable remedy andtakes suitable corrective steps.

    There are a few signals aboutorgan failure or at least organstress on which I would like tocomment. The first goes beyond anorgan and forms a sub-systemwhich is a vital constituent of theIndian State. I refer here to the

    Legislature. Whether it beParliament or a State Legislature,the legislative organ of the State isreally the most important

    constituent of the democraticsystem because the House iselected by all the people and,collectively and individually, itand its members represent thepeople of India. Therepresentatives of the people haveat all times to be accountable tothe people and, therefore, behave

    in a responsible manner. Thepeoples mandate to theLegislature is todeliberate andlegislate, that is,give us a system of laws which makesIndia a societybased on law

    rather thanarbitrariness orwhimsicality of the ruler. It is thecustodian of the public exchequerin that it votes grants and thebudget in its totality, whichauthorises the Executive to drawfunds from the Consolidated Fundof India and make accruals to itthrough revenue and capitalreceipts. The Executive canneither impose a tax nor animpost, nor can it spend even asingle paisa without the approvalof the Legislature. In turn, theLegislature can call the Executive

    There are a few signals aboutorgan failure or at least organstress on which I would like tocomment. The first goes beyondan organ and forms a sub-system which is a vitalconstituent of the Indian State.I refer here to the Legislature.

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    to account on how the money hasbeen spent and in this it isassisted by the Comptroller and

    Auditor General of India. The

    Executive has to account for everyexpenditure and, therefore, theparliamentary convention is that if government if defeated on aMoney Bill and, in particular the

    Appropriation Bill, it must resign.

    The Legislature also calls theExecutive to account in itsexecutive functioning throughquestions, call attention motions,adjournment motions, motions of no confidence, debate, discussionsand resolutions. This can only bedone if the Legislature meets forextended periods of time, eachdays session lasts the whole dayand discussions and debate takeplace in an environment of peaceand normal give and take. If theLegislature meets for just 50 to 60working days in a year, as is thecase with most State Legislatures,or proceedings are held up for daysand months because the oppositionand the ruling party do not see eyeto eye on issues and nonissues,then the legislative subsystemcomes under more stress. This canaffect the working of the Executiveand then there is a real danger of a systemic failure.

    There are remedial measureswhich can be adopted. India doesneed more than one party and, as Ihave written in the past in

    extenso, ideally we should have acentrist party, a left of centreparty and a right of centre party inwhich the centrist party becomes apivot, but also a role model whichprevents an excessive swing eitherto the Left or to the Right. Splintergroups and purely regional outfitsshould either have no presence in

    Parliament or a very subduedpresence. If we adopt one singlepolitical reform, that is, noindependent can stand forParliamentary election unless hehas won at least one localgovernment election and oneassembly election, with a conditionapplying to regional parties or

    splinter groups that unless they,as a party, hold at least five seatseach in the Legislature of threeStates, they cannot contest anelection to Parliament. Thesmaller parties would then eitherhave to merge into larger parties,or they would have to expandbeyond the narrow confines of their State boundaries, or theywould have to confine themselvesto State Legislatures only. Theywould then not be able to exertpressure in Parliament whichwould be far more in proportion totheir numerical strength. If the

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    larger parties are no longer at themercy of these small groups onecan definitely expect moreresponsible behaviour by them,

    both in government and inopposition.

    Moving from a whole subsystem toorgans of government withinsubsystems, I would like tocomment on three of them. Thefirst is government. As a part of the Executive organ of the Statethe government is required tofunction within the mandate givento it by the people,that is, theapproval given bythe people duringelections and theagenda andprogrammes of theparty which isvoted to power. The partymanifesto, the party ideology andthe party agenda cannot and mustnot be altered case by case andgovernment must adhere to thepolicy guidelines provided to themby the manifesto and agenda of the ruling party. This will guidefuture legislation and it willcertainly guide policy formulationon specific issues. Within theseparameters, however, thoseinstrumentalities of the Statewhich are responsible forimplementation of policy will take

    the orders from the law, thepeoples mandate and thedecisions of the Council of Ministers. The problem in India is

    that government itself vacillatesand dithers, with the result thatits officers do not have clear-cutorders or a clear-cut policy whichthey are supposed to implement.This is an organ failure, but if itenlarges itself to encompass thewhole range of executive action,then organ failure here can lead to

    failure of the subsystem and thismust be guarded against. TheConstitution inPart XIV alreadygives the CivilServices protectionagainst arbitraryaction, thePreamble, Articles

    14, 19, 21 and 38 of the Constitution lay down thefundamental duty of governmentto promote a welfare state and theRules of Business framed underthe Constitution categoricallyprovided for the manner in whichpublic servants will function,impartially and without fear orfavour. If we can go back to asystem in which every functionaryis not only allowed but activelyencouraged to do his dutyaccording to the mandate given tohim, we would be able to stop thedownward slide of the efficiency

    This is an organ failure, but if itenlarges itself to encompass thewhole range of executive action,then organ failure here can leadto failure of the subsystem andthis must be guarded against.

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    and efficacy of our public servants.This is well within our means andif there is to be public protest, itshould not be confined to an

    individual case of rape but musttake the form of insisting thatgovernment functions effectively.

    The second organ I would like topick up is the judiciary, which isone of the constituent organs of the State and forms a completesubsystem. People talk of judicialreforms. Even the Supreme Courtkeeps emphasising this, but no onehas really articulated what theymean by judicial reforms. Anyreform, which aims at reducing orin any way curbing theindependence of the judiciaryenshrined in Chapter 5, Part Vand Chapter 5 and 6, Chapter VIof the Constitution, has to befirmly rejected. If the judiciary,from the court of first instanceupto the Supreme Court, becomesin any way amenable to pressureby the Executive or theLegislature, it can neither functionindependently nor can it be aguardian of the Constitution andthe rights of the people againstExecutive or Legislativehighhandedness. Having said thisone has also to recognise thatthere is a great deal of inefficiencyand even corruption in the

    judiciary today and that this has

    to be cleansed with a heavy hand.The cleansing process, however,must be a part of the judicialsystem, with no say of the

    Executive or the Legislature. The judicial reforms should take thefollowing form.

    1. An objective assessment of the strength of judges andmagistrates from the court of first instance upto theSupreme Court which shouldbe approved to deal with thehuge number of cases nowpending or likely to beinstituted in future.

    2. A process of selection of judges which safeguards theindependence of the

    judiciary, but is transparent,open to examination andtime bound in the matter of selection and appointment.

    3. A clear-cut understanding bythe judiciary at all levelsthat the provisions of section309, Cr.P.C, which call forspeedy disposal on a day-to-day basis will be applicableto every court in India andevery judge and magistratewill be held accountable fordelays. In this the HighCourts and the SupremeCourt must interact with theBar Council of the State andBar Council of India to

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    ensure that these Councilslean hard on their membersto help in speedy disposal of cases rather than act as

    obstructions whichindefinitely delay trials.4. The High Courts and

    Supreme Court mustexercise self-restraint in theadmission of appeals andpetitions so that trivia isthrown out at motionhearing. Today many

    petitions are entertained,especially Public InterestLitigation, where the issue ishigh profile that the judgecan garner free publicity.This hits at the roots of theanonymity of judges. Today anormal petition or appealbefore a High Court or the

    Supreme Court remainsunheard for years at a time,but Public Interest Litigationgets priority. The SupremeCourt must take a good hardlook at what reallyconstitutes public interestand must issue suitabledirections to the High Courtsso that normal cases receiveddue attention. Of course, inorder to achieve speedy trialthere has to be thecooperation of theprosecuting agency and of the police in ensuring that

    process is served andpresence of witnessesensured.

    The third instrumentality I wouldlike to speak about is the Police. At one level it is the coercive armof the State because it is utilisedfor putting down public violenceand maintenance of law and order.This is a legitimate role, providedthat the Police is not usedselectively. We need to strengthenthe Executive Magistracy and thePolice in tandem so that, facedwith a particular law andsituation, the Police and theExecutive Magistracy will react inan uniform and predictablemanner. Minimum necessary forcewill be used at the first instance of a law and order situationdeveloping, with the emphasis onpreventive action, followed byphysical force when that becomesnecessary. Neither governmentnor any other functionary shouldbe allowed to interfere in this partof the duty of the Police, that is,immediate intervention to preventa law and order situationspiralling out of hand. If such aphilosophy has been built into theGujarat Police and MaharashtraPolice the post Ayodhya riots inMaharashtra would have beenbrought under control veryquickly, as would the post Godhra

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    riots in Gujarat. The coercive armof the State, in exercising force,must do so in the interest of theperson at large, which means that

    necessary force will be used tocurb lawlessness at the earliest juncture, with no one having thepower to stop the police from doingits duty.

    Another area in which the Policeoperate is in the prevention of crime, its detection, investigationand prosecution without delay andin maintaining surveillance overcriminals, which would preventthem from indulging in criminalactivities. UnderChapter XI of theCode of CriminalProcedure thePolice is not onlyauthorised but is required to takepreventive action so thatcognisable offences may be nippedin the bud. Under Chapter XII of the Cr.P.C the Police is required toinvestigate every cognisable caseand to carry the investigationforward upto the stage of filing achallan before a competent court.Under law the power of theinvestigating officer to investigatea cognisable offence is unlimited.His superior in the Policehierarchy can guide him or eventake over the investigationhimself, but he can neither order

    him to drop an accused againstwhom a prima facie case is madeout nor order him to falselyimplicate someone against whom

    no case is made out. However, aswe have seen in innumerablecases investigated by CBI,interference at political levels inthe investigation of offences isquite frequent and this is onereason why CBI has such a dismalrecord of conviction. If the Police isunable to investigate offences or is

    unwilling to do so, it is inevitablethat lynch law will prevail, ashappened at the time of the

    infamousBhagalpur blindingcase. If we are to bea society of lawsthen lynch law hasno place in India.

    This means that for our own sakewe have to make the Police aneffective instrument of crimecontrol and for this purpose wemust give the police freedom of action. I do not agree with a greatdeal of what Prakash Singh saysin the matter of details of policeautonomy, but I am in totalagreement with him that theoperational freedom of the Policemust be restored, strengthenedand enhanced. Whatever legalchanges are necessary in thisbehalf should be brought on thestatute book with great speed.

    Under law the power of theinvestigating officer toinvestigate a cognisable offenceis unlimited.

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    There is no doubt that thesuperstructure of the State isunder considerable stress.Different organs are distressed

    and weakened and there aresignals about current or potentialorgan failures. As yet there is nodanger of systemic failure, but it isabout time that we took note of what is happening to the organs of

    the State and to apply remedialmeasures now.

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    Indias Pendulum Policy On Pakistan - Sushant Sareen

    ore than anything else,experience should informIndian policy-makers and

    the legion of analysts andcommentators on Indo-Pakrelations about the peril of usingwords like irreversible anduninterruptible to describe theextremely accident-prone peace(more likely, engagement) processbetween the two South Asianneighbours and adversaries. Evenwhen superficially everythingseems to be going well between thetwo countries, the state of bilateralrelations remains quite fragile. A relatively minor incident has thepotential to get blown out of proportion and unlea