Vigilant State 3

COLLECTION

INTELLIGENCE

Vigilant State 3

• 2 Types of Problems for Analysts

• Bureaucratic Pathologies

• Psychological Dissonance

Lecture will deal with bureaucracy and seminar will deal with psychology

1. Politics of Intelligence Analysis

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1. Politics of Intelligence Analysis common forms -• Interest Groups e.g. agencies fight for budget

share and influence• Bargaining Systems e.g. compromise for

producing national estimates• Political Interference e.g. called for to support

entrenched policies • Procurement & Industry e.g. employed to justify

large defence spends

2. Democracies and Autocracies

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2. Democracies and Autocracies• In autocracies - ideological problems and power

problems• But politicisation no less strong in democracy ?• social choice over budget• government and opposition – the infamous gap

debates• public opinion and mass media in fp making -

ISC's question – our own project• prone to investigation – e.g. Franks Report, FAC,

Butler

3. Responses to Political Pressure

Sherman

Kent

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• 3. Responses –

• A) IDEALISM OR PUSH – O.N.E.

• Sherman Kent, Lyman Kirkpatrick, Ray Cline - more recently S.R. Ward

• insulate/distance from unethical pressures - set the agenda

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• B) REALISM OR PULL – D.I.A.

• to survive ‘go with the flow’ - agency competition will deliver objectivity

• Carmen Medina serve the customer’s requirements + new IT

• must have own policy as input• e.g. Nixon and China – not told

China? Nixon and DCI Richard Helms

4. Politicising Questions

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4. Problem of Politicising Questions Politicisation is easy because –• Competing agencies provide alternative answers• Because no-one knows what the right question is• e.g Iraqi missile numbers ? range ? production ? or

aircraft ?• Secrecy prevents investigation• Example of Johnson and Vietnam• CBS vs. General Abrams - Sam Adams – War of

Numbers• Remit of Butler Enquiry

5. Bureaucratic Politics

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• 5. Bureaucratic Politics

• No real DCI/DNI even with Mike McConnell• NIE process = bland /coaltions• A Team / B Team each change introduces new

pathologies• Committee process is very slow• Each Bureau grows its own - 14 in Saigon • Even struggles within intelligence orgs• Iran SI vs. SO Vietnam SI vs. SO

Chairman

(Cabinet Office)

DUS(Defence & Intelligence) and Whitehall Liaison DepartmentForeign Office

Director General

Security Service

Chief of the Assessments Staff

(Cabinet Office)

‘C’

(SIS)

Director HM Treasury

Director

GCHQ Policy Director Ministry of Defence

DFID

CDI

(Ministry of Defence)

Joint

Intelligence

Committee

Director of Export Control & Non-Proliferation

Department of Trade & Industry

DG Org & Int Crime Directorate

Home Office

The UK Joint Intelligence Committee

PM’s Foreign Policy Advisor (Hd OD)

Security & Intelligence Co-ordinator (Cabinet Office)

Policy

Collection

Analysis

6. Role of the Individual

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6. Role of the Individual

• Military valuesLoyalty – Tenacity - Speed of decision - Wisdom

resides with rank/experience• Academic valuesFlat hierarchy - Unorthodox thinking – Reflective -

DisrespectfulCivilianize? Non-career ? • Osmosis/Strategic CultureIndividuals rarely have to be told about valuesAnalogies - the weight of the shadow of the past

7. Intelligence at the Top

John Scarlett

Chair of JIC 2003

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7. Intelligence at the Top

• Personality key at the top - Interface with decision-makers• Must have credibility• Must be able to inspire action• Hitler’s entourage clearly impossible Churchill, Johnson, Nixon also difficult• Blair's Ministerial Committee on Intelligence• How pressurised was the UK JIC in 2003?

8. The Problem of Deception

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• 8. Problem of Deception

• 2 forms of deception

• A) Counter-intelligence deception• Paralyse by creating security problems• James Jesus Angleton• Spycatcher & Roger Hollis

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B) Strategic Deception

• Need to monitor the bait• Exploit the enemy good intell system• Exploit the enemy presumptions• Reinforce what they want to believe - eg

Iraqi WMD

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• Q. How do analysts guard against these problems bureaucratic problems?

• A. Endless re-designing of machinery

• Q. How do analysts deal with psychological problems?

• A. Endless training to think outside the box

• Q. So why does it still fail?• A. I will explain next week!!!