Using the Oregon Statewide Using the Oregon Statewide Integrated Model for the Integrated Model for the Oregon Freight Plan AnalysisOregon Freight Plan Analysis

Prepared for the TRB SHRP2 Symposium: Innovation in Freight

Demand Modeling and DataSeptember 14, 2010

Presented by Tara WeidnerParsons Brinckerhoff

Presentation HighlightsPresentation Highlights

• Describe Freight Plan analysis• Overview of the Statewide Integrated Model• Reporting model results• Conclusions

Oregon Freight PlanOregon Freight Plan

• First statewide freight plan• Scope of analysis was well matched

to SWIM2 model• ODOT modeling staff served role as

internal consultants• PB modeling staff served as

extension of ODOT staff while continuing model development

StateWide Integrated ModelStateWide Integrated Model (SWIM2) (SWIM2)

ActivityLogsums

Employmentby Industry

Construction$Totals

LaborFlows$

Aggregate/EquilibriumMicro-simulationNext Time Period Feedback

Production Totals

SpaceInventory

TravelTime/Costs

OD Trip TablesTravelTime/Costs

Space PricesOccupied Space

Demand

Mode ChoiceLogsums

HH Labor

Commodity Flows$(internal, import, export)

ECONOMY

LANDDEVELOPMENT

SYNTHETICPOPULATION

ALLOCATION

TRANSPORT

ASSIGNMENT

Person Goods External

SPATIAL

Oregon StateWide Integrated Oregon StateWide Integrated Model (SWIM2) as Forecast ToolModel (SWIM2) as Forecast Tool

• SWIM2 result of 10-year program• SWIM2 integrates the dynamic interactions

of land use, the economy and transportation infrastructure

• SWIM2 is a peer reviewed model • SWIM1 used successfully on several

statewide analyses

Freight Plan Analysis PurposeFreight Plan Analysis Purpose

• Forecast range of likely economic conditions to gain understanding of effects on freight movement– Illustrate variation in statewide and regional

activity and commodity flows– Provide information to support development

of freight strategies

Analytical Approach Analytical Approach

• Use scenarios to evaluate range of possible futures Reference: “business-as-usual” (2.0% CAGR)Optimistic: more economic growth (2.7%)Pessimistic: less economic growth (1.2%)High Transportation Costs: Pessimistic scenario

with 3-fold increase in variable operating costs

• 3 month original schedule

Reporting Out Model ResultsReporting Out Model Results

• Lots of output (80GB/scenario)

• SWIM VIZ:– Single multi-year database (3 GB/scenario)– Visualization tool

• Database approach great – allowed access to data without keeping the large set of files associated with run

• Simultaneous VIZ tool development, and freight-plan specific graphics and performance metrics

SWIM SWIM VIZVIZToolTool

1) Query

2) Tables

3) Visuals

Commodity Tree MapCommodity Tree Map

Significant commodity movement will flow on Oregon’s highway system

Stronger economy generates more commodity flow in terms of value

Stronger economy generates more commodity flow in terms of tons

Weaker economy generates less commodity flow in terms of tons

Weaker economy generates less commodity flow in terms of value

14

Variation by commodity type…

-1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%

ClayMineralStone

FoodorKindredProducts

ForestorWood

MachineryInstTranspMetals

OtherMisc

PetrolCoalChem

PulpPaper

All Commodities

Statewide Commodity ProductionCAGR 2012-2027

Pessimist

Reference

Optimist

15

Variation by industry sector…

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%

Ag, Mining, Food

Electronics, Durables, Construction

Forestry, Wood

Gov't, Education, Biz Services,Accommodations

Health

Paper, NonDurables

Retail, Personal Service, Communication

All Industries

Statewide Compound Average Growth Rate 2012-2027

Pessimist

Reference

Optimist

16

Variation by region…

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%

ACT1 NW

ACT10 SW

ACT11 SE

ACT12 Lane

ACT2 Portland

ACT3 NE

ACT4 Scentral

ACT5 RV

ACT6 Lower JD

ACT7 Central

ACT8 SW

ACT9 CascadesW

Oregon

All Industry Compound Average Growth Rate 2012-2027

Pessimist

Reference

Optimist

17

Truck Tour CharacteristicsTruck Tour Characteristics

17

Figure X. Average Truck Tour Travel Distance

300

350

400

450

2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027

year

mile

s

Reference

High Cost

Optimistic

Pessimistic

Truck tours get shorter because of congestion, but more trucks are needed to transport freight, further contributing to congestion.

Figure X. Average Truck Tour Travel Time

600

650

700

750

800

850

2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027

year

min

ute

s

Reference

High Cost

Optimistic

Pessimistic

ConclusionConclusion

• SWIM2 model added value to state freight policy

• Integrated model allowed view of commodity flows (tons and value) and truck trip/tours by scenario

• Visualization database and tools key to mining volume of output and discerning complex responses

For more information…For more information…

Oregon Freight Plan: http://www.oregon.gov/ODOT/TD/FREIGHT/FREIGHT_PLAN.shtml

Becky KnudsonOregon DOT, Planning Analysis Unitrebecca.a.knudson@odot.state.or.us

Tara WeidnerParsons Brinckerhoffweidner@pbworld.com