IPIPIPIPnestnestnestnest

USB 3.0, PCIe, HDMI, SATA, MIPI, DDRn,…

Winner & Loser in 2013

Dr Eric ESTEVE, Owner @ IPnest, Blogger @ Semiwiki

IPIPIPIPnestnestnestnest

Interface IP Focus by Protocol…Why?

� Available data: IP vendor ranking by Revenue by “segments”… (PLDA classified as

a “Physical IP” vendor)

� What do you need when acting as:

� IP Product Marketing?

� Understand IP market dynamics by protocol and IP type to do business planning

� As a chip maker?

� Understand Interface Protocol dynamics to make the right investment

� Comprehensive competitive analysis: IP vendor by protocol (ranking is not

enough)

� IPnest addresses these needs since 2007 (Chip maker & IP vendor experience)

� Initially Protocol specific survey, then all Interfaces, adding today PHY IP and VIP

� Provide Ranking, Competitive Analysis, Market trend, Ecosystem analysis (MIPI)

IPIPIPIPnestnestnestnest

World is Changing

Electronic moving to mobile

Mobile� End User want “sharing Experience”

� Increase needs for:

� In-System data Processing

� MIPI, DDRn, SSIC…

� Mobile Device level Storage

� SATA, NVMe, UFS…

� Device to Device data transfer

� HDMI, SSUSB, PCIe…

� Device to “cloud” data transfer

� 1G or 10G Ethernet…

� Networking & Backbone capabilities

� 40G/100G Ethernet, Interlaken,

Infiniband…

� Server Farm Data Processing & Storage

� PCIe SRIOV, SATAe, FC, NVMe…

IPIPIPIPnestnestnestnest

� Interface Protocols Tends

� Storage: start moving from HDD to SSD

� SATA moves to SATA Express: SATA PHY support up to 6 Gbps, PCIe

PHY gen-3 (8 Gbps) & gen-4 (16 Gbps)

� Memory Controller: increase bandwidth while minimizing power

� Display: MHL & embeddedDP emergence

� Many News in Mobile: MIPI Alliance has closed several partnership

� JEDEC in June 2012 for Universal Flash Storage (MIPI M-PHY + UFS)

� USB-IF to support USB 3.0 (MIPI M-PHY + USB 3.0 Controller)

� PCI-SIG to support Mobile Express (MIPI M-PHY + PCIe Controller)

2011-2013

� Smartphone Shipments Explosion

� 2011: 450M, 650M+ in 2012, 850M in 2013…

� MIPI powered IC following

IPIPIPIPnestnestnestnest

Winners

� External Display interfaces� HDMI de-facto standard (> 900 million ports shipped in 2012)

� DisplayPort finally consolidate in PC, emerge in Media Tablet (eDP)

� MHL (HDMI signaling / USB 2 connector) to replace HDMI in mobile

� Pervasion of MIPI DSI in Medical, Industrial

� Data Interface “commodity” USB 3.0

� Protocol standard Released in 2008 by USB-IF… PC chipset in 2012!

� 2012 was good for SuperSpeed USB IP vendors (50-70 design starts)

� Total USB IP sales (USB 2.0 and USB 3.0) in the $75-$80M range

� SuperSpeed USB IP revenue 95% growth ($24M)

� Total USB IP revenue growth 15%

IPIPIPIPnestnestnestnest

Winners

� “Traditional” PCI Express

� PCIe penetration has been solid in PC, Embedded, Server, Networking, Test…

� PCIe gen-1 (2.5 G) in 2004 to gen-3 (8G) mainstream, expect gen-4 in 2015

� PCIe Youth Therapy (expect +50% more by 2017)

� Storage: SATA (> 6G) is now SATA Express, SSD � NVM Express

� Mobile: expect Media tablet & Smartphone integrating PCIe soon

IPIPIPIPnestnestnestnest

Winners

� MIPI

� Initially a set of specification (chip to chip) addressing Mobile Phone

� Recently (2011) extended to any kind of Mobile, including PC & Media Tablet

� Industrial, Medical will use MIPI too!

� Partnership campaign run by MIPI Alliance to extend usage:

� M-PCIe, UFS, SSIC: all using M-PHY (today up to 5 Gbps, expected to go up to 16 Gbps)

2012/2010 growth rate is impressive (X4)…

… Surviving AP Chip Makers have MIPI future in hands, MIPI Alliance founding members:

TI, STM out of business, Motorola, Nokia sold & Intel Mobile post $600M/Q loss

IPIPIPIPnestnestnestnest

Winners: Ethernet & VHS SerDes

� Ethernet for Networking

� 40 Gb and 100 Gb viable solutions

� Generate a specific SerDes IP business:� Ethernet PHY IP based on 10G SerDes, moving to 28 Gbps SerDes (25G) multi-standards

� MAC and PCS sold by very focused IP vendors

� Integrated into High End FPGA (Xilinx, Altera, Achronix) – Few ASSP (Gennum/Snowbush IP)

� Hybrid Memory Cube (HMC) consortium specifies next gen SR (28 Gbps) and USR (15-28 Gbps)

� Ethernet penetrate Automotive

� OPEN Alliance SIG Ethernet-based communication in automotive

� The first PHY for In-Vehicle-Networking will support 100MBit/s.

Ethernet & SerDes IP 2010 2011 2012 Share

MoreThanIP 4 5 6 15%

Synopsys 4 4 5 12%

Vsemi 1,5 4 6 15%

Avago tech. 2 4 6,5 6%

Snowbush 2,5 3 6 15%

Cadence 1,8 2,2 3,5 9%

Others 8,9 12,7 11,6 29%

Total ($M) 24,7 33,1 40,6 100%

IPnest plan to launch “Interface PHY & SerDes IP Market Survey” in November 2013

IPIPIPIPnestnestnestnest

“Supreme” Winner… DDRn Memory Controller IP

� ASIC/ASSP design starts number decrease due to Development Cost (40, 28 nm or 20/14FF)

� SoC Design Start proportion increase SoC = CPU core + multiple IP + Logic

� CPU Frequency above 1 GHz, SDRAM data rate in the 1000 to 2000 Mbps

� Higher Frequency push using dedicated (hard) PHY instead of soft PHY

� Outsourcing trend is also increasing due to Controller higher complexity

� Net Result: More DDRn (LPDDRn) Memory controller to be integrated and outsourced

� DDRn IP market has grown from $22.5M in 2008 to $78M in 2012: 36% CAGR

0

50

100

150

200

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

DDRn Digital IP

DDRn PHY IP

Total ($M)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Synopsys Cadence ARM Others

(Virage)

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

IPIPIPIPnestnestnestnest

Winners

� ARM Architecture is supplanting Intel x86

� CPU Roadmap only based on High Performance is no more effective

� Emerging Electronic need for High Performance AND Low Power

� We (and end-user) think now in term of Performance efficiency

� “MIPS per Watt” is the new performance metric

� End user think in term of battery life, SC industry have to minimize power

� Only true for Smartphone? …What’s about server farms?

IPIPIPIPnestnestnestnest

Winners

New Comer: Network-on-Chip (NoC) or SoC Fabric

� Concept in 2005- Reality in 2012

� Massively used in large SoC to Interconnect IP blocks (60 in average in 2013)

� Becomes critical in Multi-CPU SoC to support cache coherency

� Mobile Application Processor, MMedia Proc., Network

Proc. Today… Microcontroller in the future

� NoC could become a Trojan horse

� Implement on Chip Power Management

� All functions are connected to NoC…

� Including Interfaces (PCIe, USB 3.0, DDRn, UFS…)

� What if NoC IP vendor could also support Interface IP?

� Or successful AP Fabless may decide to acquire NoC IP leader…?

IPIPIPIPnestnestnestnest

PHY & SerDes IP is a winner

PHY

PMA Layer

(Ser/Des)

PCS Layer

(P&R Digital)

� State of the art: CMOS SerDes up to 28 Gbps

� Fast Moving Segment

� High Level Engineering required

� High Risk (Si Test Chip required), expect high ROI

� New comers: KoolChip, OmniPHY (US based), Silabtech

(India based)

� Acquired: Cosmic Circuit & PMC Sierra design team by

Cadence (2013), Vsemiconductor by Intel (2012)

� PHY IP vendor have been valuated at better price:

� Prism or Snowbush @$25M in 2008

� Vsemi @ $50M in 2012 ?

� PHY IP is strategic

“Interface PHY & SerDes IP Market Survey” to be released in November 2013

IPIPIPIPnestnestnestnest

Losers

IPIPIPIPnestnestnestnest

2008-2012

IPIPIPIPnestnestnestnest

2013-2017 --- 11% CAGR

IPIPIPIPnestnestnestnestMarket Data based “Interface IP Market Survey 2008-2017" release 5

2008-2017 Consolidation

Expect almost 50% growth from 2012 to 2015!

IPIPIPIPnestnestnestnest

Summary

� Top 3 EDA

� Mentor Graphics don’t target Interface IP when Synopsys consolidates

� Cadence has capitalized on Denali acquisition, will develop Cosmic Circuit and grow in IP

� Synopsys is harvesting a 10 years old investment…and still invest

� DDRn Memory Controller IP is already the largest Interface IP segment

� Express Everywhere (SATA, NVM, MIPI) source of Growth for IP vendors

� SerDes (PHY IP) is strategic…

� Large IDM (STM, Nvidia, AMD …) knew it… IP vendors now clearly understand it

� Will MIPI become preferred protocol for Mobile Application?

� Smartphone & Media tablet today, Industrial, Automotive or Medical tomorrow

� MIPI PHY supporting Storage (UFS), Express (M-PCIe), SS USB (SSIC) on top of legacy specifications

(CSI, DSI, DigRF V4…)

� Emerging vendor will come from India or China

� Cosmic Circuits has initiated the strategy to attack Interface IP by the PHY side

� But the market is consolidating in USA

IPIPIPIPnestnestnestnest

Thanks!

"Interface IP Survey 2008-2012 Analysis, 2013-2017 Forecast" October 2013 (V5)

“PHY & SerDes IP Survey 2010-2012 Analysis, 2013-2017 Forecast" November 2013

“Verification IP Survey” (First Time ever VIP market evaluation) November 2013

“MIPI Ecosystem Survey “ (MIPI Alliance sponsored) & “MIPI IP Survey & Forecast” July2012

"PCI Express IP Market Survey" July 2013 (V4)- Sold to most of the IP vendors! Also: SATA, USB 3.0, MIPI

www.ip-nest.com IPNEST customer list:

Synopsys, Cadence, Mentor Graphics, Rambus,

Analog Bits, Arasan, Mixel, True Circuits,

NWLogic, MoSys, PLDA, Open Silicon,

eSilicon, GUC, Fujitsu, KSIA,

Intel, TI, LSI Logic, ST-Micro,

Sony, “Foundry” (…Denali, nSys, Evatronix, Inventure, Snowbush… )

IP Blogger on www.semiwiki.com best SC, EDA & IP Blogs are on SemiWiki