© 2017 iCIMS Inc. All Rights Reserved.

U.S. Hiring Trends Q1 2016The New Reality for Entry-level Workers and Where in the U.S. Companies are Hiring

Q1 2016 | U.S. Hiring Trends Report

© 2016 iCIMS Inc. All Rights Reserved.2

One of the most remarkable aspects of this phenomenon is

it sits at odds with the headline numbers for the U.S. labor

market. Job growth has been unusually steady for several

years now – normally, even during a robust expansion,

there are one-off months when job gains go in reverse – yet

stories of economic insecurity are widespread. For some

time now, there has been an unusual discrepancy between

media narratives of the U.S. jobs market and some of the

standard macroeconomic data, but this is not just a media

myth. Step back even further to the broader picture of

overall U.S. economic growth, and it has been substantially

more modest than many recent economic expansions,

fueling fears that the new normal in the U.S. economy will

be lower and slower growth.

How to explain the discrepancy? One possibility is that it

is all about the demand side of the labor market, whereby

it is simply a question of relatively low-quality jobs being

created. For instance, Fed Chair Janet Yellen has been

outspoken in calling attention to the relatively high number

of workers accepting part-time work because they

cannot find full-time jobs. A recent study by economists

at Princeton and Harvard suggests that many of the jobs

created since the Great Recession have provided less

economic security than jobs created in the past because

they provide only temporary, freelance, or otherwise

alternative employment. iCIMS system data adds another

piece to this puzzle, showing negligible net progress over

the last two years in the proportion of full-time jobs created

relative to part-time or contract workers whose hours are

not guaranteed.

There is also the possibility that we are witnessing

a shift in the supply side of the labor market. Some

commentators have raised the possibility that job

seekers and workers today, especially millennials, want

something different out of their careers. Still others point

to a potential skills gap – not only that the nature of new

jobs is changing, but that as labor force participation rises

and discouraged workers are tempted back into the job

search, their skills may have deteriorated.

Naturally, it could be a little of both. The excess demand

for internships evident from iCIMS’ elevated talent supply/

demand ratio suggests a shortage of either internships

or high-quality entry-level opportunities. While iCIMS

system data focuses on the demand side of the labor

market, we have conducted a survey that shows high

levels of willingness to accept alternative forms of

employment on the supply side as well. All of this

suggests that as people re-enter the labor force or enter

it for the first time, they may or may not go straight to

regular full-time jobs.

- Josh WrightiCIMS Chief Economist

A foot in the door. Pounding the pavement.Our metaphors for finding a job emphasize the arduousness of the task and its chanciness.

And these days, it’s not getting any easier. Glance at a newsstand – or your social media

newsfeeds – and you’re bound to see stories of economic transition and dislocation.

© 2017 iCIMS Inc. All Rights Reserved.3

Q1 2016 | U.S. Hiring Trends Report

Table of Contents

The Big Picture – Insights from Our Findings 4

Section 1: Is the Path to the American Dream Becoming Harder to Start? 5

Section 2: Increase Your Odds of Success – The Best Cities to Find a Job in the U.S. 10

Methodology 12

About Us 13

© 2017 iCIMS Inc. All Rights Reserved.4

Q1 2016 | U.S. Hiring Trends Report

Job growth alone does not tell the full story of today’s labor market. There is an ongoing

conversation about the nature and quality of the jobs that the U.S. economy is creating. While

concerns about job security have been rising for many years, more fundamental concerns

have recently emerged, such as whether enough full-time jobs are being created.

Furthermore, iCIMS system data appears to be consistent with an increased desire to seek

internships as a first step to finding a job. This raises some new questions about today’s labor

market, especially for entry-level candidates. For anyone trying to find their way to a great job,

or even a good one, it is important to consider not only alternative types of employment, but

alternative locations. With that in mind, this report also provides indicators of which U.S. cities

are seeing the most rapid growth in jobs.

The Big Picture – Insights from Our Findings

Data from iCIMS’ system for tracking job applicants indicates that while job growth remains strong, full-time positions are not outpacing the creation of part-time and contractor work enough to meaningfully increase their share of total jobs created.

© 2017 iCIMS Inc. All Rights Reserved.5

Q1 2016 | U.S. Hiring Trends Report

Millennials are entering the workforce at rapid rates and play a critical role in today’s workplace.

According to the Pew Research Center, more than one in three American workers today

are millennials (adults ages 18 to 34). But do college seniors face the right opportunities after

graduation to build a long-lasting career? Recent trends could be pointing to a lack of traditional

entry-level, climb-to-the-top type of roles. With hidden weakness in the job market, today’s

entry-level workers might be forced to compromise their dream of landing that perfect job.

Section 1:

Is the Path to the American Dream Becoming Harder to Start?

To investigate this further, we took a look at our system data

and found that the talent supply/demand ratio, meaning the

number of people applying per position, is much higher for

internships than for full-time positions. As seen in Figure 1,

in Q1 of 2016, internship positions had an average of about

37 applicants per job filled, while full-time positions had only

26 applicants per job filled. While we do not know what

level of experience these full-time positions were hiring

Demand for Internships is High and Competition is Intense

for, if recent graduates are realistic enough not to apply

for senior-level positions, then this decrease in the ratio

could indicate a shortage of entry-level opportunities

for recent college graduates. Such a shortage could be

depressing the number of applicants per full-time position

if the number of applications submitted by people looking

for their first job is larger than the number of applications

submitted by people with previous work experience.

Ap

plic

ants

Per

Job

Fill

ed

Figure 1: Talent Supply/Demand Ratio

Full-Time Part-Time Contingent Intern

Source: iCIMS System Data

In the beginning of each year since 2014, the number of applicants per internship position has consistently grown while the same ratio for full-time positions has declined.

Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

31.7

23.7

18.9

31.5

26.6

17.715.8

31.9

26.3

18.214.8

37.2

© 2017 iCIMS Inc. All Rights Reserved.6

Q1 2016 | U.S. Hiring Trends Report

Increases in iCIMS job postings, displayed in Figure 2, are consistent with the reported overall strong job growth in the U.S.

Figure 3 displays the steady nonfarm payroll growth as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). With 66 straight

months of positive nonfarm payroll growth through March 2016, this is the longest streak of monthly job gains since

World War II.

The Overall Job Market is Improving but Millennials Are Being Left Out in the Cold

Figure 2: Monthly Job Postings

Figure 3: Unusually Steady Nonfarm Payroll Growth

Month Year

0

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

Dec ‘13

Mar ‘14

Jun ‘14Sep ‘14

Dec ‘14

Mar ‘15

Jun ‘15Sep ‘15

Dec ‘15

Mar ‘16

1994

-400,000

-300,000

-200,000

-100,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Observation Date

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Nonfarm Payrolls 12-Month Moving Average of Nonfarm Payrolls

Source: BLS

Source: iCIMS System Data

Job

Po

stin

gs

Th

ou

san

ds

iCIMS job postings

show strong

overall job growth

continues in the U.S.

Official job gains

have been unusually

steady over the last

few years.

© 2017 iCIMS Inc. All Rights Reserved.7

Q1 2016 | U.S. Hiring Trends Report

However, entry-level workers may not be finding quality jobs. According to the BLS, the

unemployment rate for people ages 20 to 24 was 8.4% in March 2016 compared to the

national unemployment rate of 5%. As Brandee McHale, president of Citi Foundation,

discovered, U.S. census data shows that 40 percent of the unemployed are millennials,

implying at least 4.6 million young people are out of work. For the young workers who

do find work, they may be working a job that is below their skill level, doesn’t require a

degree, or pays a low salary. According to the BLS as displayed in Figure 4, workers ages

20 – 24 are earning a median weekly wage of $514, which roughly amounts to less than

$25,000 a year.

Plan B: The Class of 2016 is Open to Taking Internships or Part-time Jobs after Graduation

If there is a lack of entry-level full-time positions available,

this could be forcing new college graduates to resort to

“plan B” and find internship work that will hopefully lead

to a full-time opportunity. According to a 2016 iCIMS

survey, 91 percent of college seniors said it was likely that

they would accept a temporary full-time, paid internship,

or contractor position with a company after graduation if

they knew they could potentially receive a permanent job

offer from the company.

Almost All Employers Are Using Internships to Build Entry-level Talent Pools

About 97 percent of recruiting professionals said they

have offered entry-level employees temporary full-time,

paid internships, or contractor positions with the potential

to receive permanent job offers, and 86% said this is a

frequent practice for their company.

This data supports the conventional wisdom that many

employers use internships as a recruitment program,

using the positions as an extended tryout for a full-time

job down the road. Instead of interviewing college

seniors, companies may be hiring directly from their

intern pools.

According to a study by LinkedIn, the industry that hires

the largest percentage of its interns was accounting,

which converts 31 percent of its interns to full-time

workers, followed by management consulting and

computer software converting at a 25 percent and 24

percent, respectively.

Figure 4: Median weekly earnings of full-time wage and salary workers Q1 2016

Ages 20-24 $514

$859Ages 25-54

Source: BLS

© 2017 iCIMS Inc. All Rights Reserved.8

Q1 2016 | U.S. Hiring Trends Report

2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1

Quarter

60%

61%

62%

63%

64%

65%

66%

67%

68%

69%

70%

% o

f Tot

al P

ostin

gs

OK, People are Applying to Internships but What About Availability?

Full-time and part-time job postings are not growing as

quickly as internship postings. As Figure 5a displays, the

relative proportions for full-time positions versus other

positions types have been stable once you strip out the

effects of seasonal hiring. To the extent that U.S. job seekers

have been struggling to find quality jobs, iCIMS system

data suggests that progress remains limited. More full-time

positions are being created, but not quickly enough to

increase their proportion relative to non-full-time positions.

Figure 5b: Relative Share of Job Postings by Position Type, Q1 2014 & Q1 2016

Full-time job postings have remained

consistent proportionately to other

types of positions.

More full-time positions are being

created, but not quickly enough to

increase their proportion relative to

non-full-time positions.

Source: iCIMS System Data

Job Position Type

Full-Time Part-Time Contingent

Intern Unknown/Unspecified

Q1 2014

65.4%

16.5%

7.1%

8.7%

2.3%

Q1 2016

1.8%

65.7%

16.6%

7.5%

8.4%

Figure 5a: Relative Prevalence of Full-Time Positions

Source: iCIMS System Data

© 2017 iCIMS Inc. All Rights Reserved.9

Q1 2016 | U.S. Hiring Trends Report

Plan C: The Gig Economy

This new data is raising questions about whether college

seniors will face the right job opportunities after graduation

and what they can do about that. If college seniors aren’t

open to internships after graduation, a lack of entry-

level full-time positions could also persuade new college

graduates to accept non-traditional jobs in the so-called gig

economy. According to a 2014 study commissioned by the

Freelancers Union, 53 million Americans are independent

workers–about 34 percent of the total workforce. A study

from Intuit predicts that by 2020, 40 percent of U.S. workers

will fall into this category.

Additionally, new research from prominent labor

economists Lawrence Katz and Alan Krueger argues that

over the last 10 years the growth in employment has come

from jobs that aren’t what we typically think of as jobs. They

are “gigs” which include on-call workers, temporary roles,

freelancers, and independent contractors. The share of

Americans working these atypical jobs has increased from

10.1% a decade ago to 15.8% as of late 2015. Nearly 40% of

people in these jobs have a bachelor’s degree or higher.

Figure 7: Proportion of Workers in Alternative Work Arrangements, by Industry

Source: Katz and Krueger (2016)

Source: Lawrence Katz and Alan Krueger, “The Rise and Nature of Alternative Work Arrangements in the United States, 1995-2015,” March 29, 2016.

People in alternative work arrangements are spread across many industries and occupations,

as displayed in Figure 7. Public administration has seen the highest jump in percent of

alternative workers, while the construction and business services industries were the two that

most frequently relied on them.

1995 2005 2015

30 %

25 %

20 %

15 %

10 %

5 %

0%

Utilitie

s

Constructio

nMtg

WholesaleRetail

Transp

ortatio

n

Informatio

n/Comms

Finance, Insu

rance, &

Real Esta

te

Professional B

us.

Education, H

ealth

Arts/Enterta

inment

Other Servi

ces

Public Administr

ation

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%1995 2005 2015

Figure 6: Share of U.S. Workers in Alternative Job Arrangements Over the Last 20 Years

© 2017 iCIMS Inc. All Rights Reserved.10

Q1 2016 | U.S. Hiring Trends Report

A New York State of Mind

New York City Posted the Highest Number of Jobs, But Houston had the Highest

Growth Rate Since Q4 2015.

These metro areas posted the highest number of job postings in Q1 of 2016, but how rapidly has their number

of job postings grown since Q4 2015? Figures 8 and 9 list the cities in descending order of total Q1 job postings,

but display their growth rates since the end of the year. In the accompanying maps, the size of the circles is

proportional to the number of job postings in each metro area.

Section 2:

Increase Your Odds of Success – The Best Cities to Find a Job in the U.S.

Figure 8: The Top Ten U.S. Metro Areas for Job Postings

U.S. Metro Areas with the Greatest Number of Job Postings and Their Growth Rates from Q4 2015 to Q1 2016

1. New York, NY +14.4% 6. Detroit, MI +33.3%

2. Phoenix, AZ +27.9% 7. Philadelphia, PA +12.4%

3. Dallas, TX +16.5% 8. Atlanta, GA +9.2%

4. Chicago, IL +32.4% 9. Los Angeles, CA +11.6%

5. Washington DC +8.2% 10. Houston, TX +33.7%

Source: iCIMS System Data

© 2017 iCIMS Inc. All Rights Reserved.11

Q1 2016 | U.S. Hiring Trends Report

Looking for a Job in a Specific Region?

These Cities May Be Your Best Bet.

Figure 9: The Top Three Metro Areas in Each U.S. Region for Job Postings

Source: iCIMS System Data

Mid-Atlantic Midwest Mountain-Plains Southwest

1. Washington DC +8.2%

2. Baltimore, MD +25.4%

3. Philadelphia, PA +12.4%

1. Chicago, IL +32.4%

2. Detroit, MI +33.3%

3. Minneapolis, MN -0.1%

1. Denver, CO +33.6%

2. Salt Lake CIty, UT +27.9%

3. Kansas CIty, MO +56.7%

1. Dallas, TX +16.5%

2. Houston, TX +33.7%

3. Austin, TX +28.7%

New England New York - New Jersey Southeast Western

1. Boston, MA +15.3%

2. Worcester, MA -5.6%

3. Providence, RI -3.9%

1. New York, NY +14.4%

2. Albany, NY +19.2%

3. Syracuse, NY +30.8%

1. Atlanta, GA +9.2%

2. Miami, FL +14.9%

3. Tampa, FL -1.2%

1. Phoenix, AZ +27.9%

2. Los Angeles, CA +11.6%

3. Seattle, WA +22.9%

Metro Areas in Each U.S. Region with the Greatest Number of Job Postings and Their Growth Rates from Q4 2015 to Q1 2016

Q1 2016 | U.S. Hiring Trends Report

© 2016 iCIMS Inc. All Rights Reserved.12

This report presents trends over the course of over two years from January 2014 through

March 2016 in a sample drawn from iCIMS’ customer base of more than 3,200 contracted

customers. The data is generated automatically by user interactions with iCIMS solutions.

The main focus is on what we refer to as the talent supply/demand ratio and the total

number of job postings by employers. The talent supply/demand ratios are presented as an

average across the iCIMS customer base. iCIMS worked with a third-party data analyst firm,

Hanover Research, to arrive at the data conclusions reflected within.

Methodology

© 2017 iCIMS Inc. All Rights Reserved.13

Q1 2016 | U.S. Hiring Trends Report

About iCIMS

iCIMS is the leading provider of talent acquisition solutions

that help businesses win the war for top talent. iCIMS

empowers companies to manage their entire hiring process

within the industry’s most robust Platform-as-a-Service

(PaaS). Built on the foundation of a best-to-market talent

acquisition software suite, iCIMS’ PaaS framework, UNIFi,

allows employers to expand the capabilities of their core

talent acquisition technology by integrating with the largest

partner ecosystem in talent acquisition to help them

attract, find, screen, and manage candidates. Offering

scalable, easy-to-use solutions that are backed by award-

winning customer service, iCIMS supports more than 3,500

contracted customers and is one of the largest and fastest-

growing talent acquisition solution providers.

About iCIMS Chief Economist: Josh Wright

Josh Wright is Chief Economist at iCIMS and oversees the organization’s proprietary research. Prior to joining iCIMS, Josh

served as a U.S. economist with Bloomberg L.P., where he analyzed current macroeconomic trends and was a frequent

guest contributor on Bloomberg Radio and Bloomberg TV.

As Chief Economist at iCIMS, Josh is responsible for analyzing proprietary data in order to produce fresh insights on

emerging trends in the U.S. labor market. He contributes to the publishing of quarterly trends reports, as well as semi-annual

reports and blog posts on ad hoc labor topics. In addition, Josh supports in the development of software that allows clients

to analyze their own performance relative to industry benchmarks by collaborating with data scientists, software developers,

and marketing executives.

A former Federal Reserve staffer, Josh helped build the Fed’s mortgage-backed securities (MBS) portfolio of more than $1

trillion, among other responses to the global financial crisis.

As a researcher, he has published on labor and housing markets, as well as U.S. monetary policy, and advised policymakers

across the legislative and executive branches of government.

About iCIMS Hiring Insights

iCIMS Hiring Insights is an online resource for labor market

insights and hiring trends. Our team of researchers and

writers uses iCIMS’ exclusive data, as well as proprietary

and secondary research, to create reports and articles that

cover the most recent developments in the workforce.

Featuring iCIMS’ Chief Economist, Josh Wright, iCIMS

Hiring Insights helps its readers stay well-informed about

the latest in recruiting, technology, and the labor market.

To learn more visit: www.icims.com/hiring-insights

HIRING INSIGHTS