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Inclusion of NOE in the Dutch National Accounts. UNECE, 6-9 May 2014, Geneva. Content. Background Scope Methodology Results. Background. NA need to be exhaustive Starting the 2010 ESA revision illegal activities are included - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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UNECE, 6-9 May 2014, Geneva
Inclusion of NOE in the Dutch National Accounts
Content
– Background– Scope– Methodology– Results
2
Background
– NA need to be exhaustive– Starting the 2010 ESA revision illegal activities are
included– Other non-observed economic activities were already
covered in the Dutch National Accounts
3
Non-observed economy
Scope is arbitrary.
Five sub-categories:1.Underground production2.Illegal production3.Informal sector production4.Household production for own final use5.Production missed due to deficiencies in data collection program
4
Methodology
For underground and white spots built upon the existing methodology, estimates for illegal are completely new after revision.
Activity specific method. Based upon many ad hoc research findings and additional assumptions.
During the integration phase corrected for double counting.
5
Methodology – example prostitution
The consumption is estimated using:-Number of prostitutes -> 25.000 in 1999-Number of working weeks a year -> 40-Average price per visit -> € 50 in 2008-Number of clients per week -> 20
Consumption in 1995 = 520 mln eurosConsumption in 2013 = 869 mln euros
Adjustements are made for imports and exports, and estimates for intermediate use are calculated following previous methods.
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Results – prostitution activities
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Results - sensitivity
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Results
Table 4.1 Estimates for various underground activities, 2010
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Results
Table 4.3 Estimates white spots, 2010
10
Results – Effects on GVA, 2010
11
Discussion and conclusions
12
– NOE is hidden by nature, resulting estimates are subject to significant uncertainty.
– Only estimates for the most important activities– Challenging to construct time series
