Understanding Emerging Technologies in Higher Education ... · Gamification Wireless as a Service Digital Preservation of Research Data ... By 2020 10% of higher education institutions

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Dr. Jan-Martin Lowendahl

[email protected]

Understanding

Emerging Technologies

in Higher Education

Leveraging the Hype Cycle

1 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY I © 2015 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Please, remember…

“Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful."

George Box English Statistician, 1919 – 2013 p. 424 Box, G. E. P., and Draper, N. R., (1987), Empirical Model Building and Response Surfaces,

John Wiley & Sons, New York, NY.


Cognitive Computing Education Applications

Quantum Computing

Classroom 3D Printing

Exostructure Strategy

SaaS SIS

Affective Computing

Competency-Based Education Platforms

Digital Assessment

Alumni CRM Learning Analytics

SIS International Data Interoperability Standards

BPO Education Tablet Open Microcredentials

DevOps

Cloud Office

Adaptive E-Textbooks

Student Retention CRM

Enterprise Mobile App Stores Big Data

Open-Source SIS Adaptive Learning

Learning Stack Master Data

Management

EA Frameworks Gamification

Wireless as a Service

Digital Preservation of Research Data

Higher Education Open-Source Financials Mobile Learning Smartphones

Hosted Virtual Desktops

Cloud HPC/CaaS

802.11ac Wave 1

Enterprise Architecture

SaaS Administration Applications

BYOD Strategy

E-Textbook IT Infrastructure Utility Virtual Environments/Virtual Worlds

Social Learning Platform for Education

Unified Communications and Collaboration

Open-Source Enterprise Service Bus Lecture Capture and Retrieval Tools

Tin Can API

Personal Analytics

Digital Workplace Graph

MOOC-Enabling Technologies

Citizen Developers

COBIT

ITIL


Hype Cycle for Education, 2015 - A CIO Toolbox

Source: “Hype Cycle for Education, 2015” 08 July 2015 (G00277499)

Innovation Trigger

Peak of Inflated Expectations

Trough of Disillusionment

Slope of Enlightenment

Plateau of Productivity

time

expectations

As of July 2015


Quantum Computing



SaaS SIS

Affective Computing


Digital Assessment




DevOps

Cloud Office






Management






Cloud HPC/CaaS

802.11ac Wave 1



BYOD Strategy





Tin Can API

Personal Analytics



Citizen Developers

COBIT

ITIL

more than 10 years

obsolete before plateau

Years to mainstream adoption:

less than 2 years

5 to 10 years

2 to 5 years

Off the Hype Cycle: 802.11n, Cloud Email for Staff and Faculty, Emergency/Mass Notification Services and Open-Source Learning Repositories, 802.11n, Cloud Email for Staff and Faculty, Emergency/Mass Notification Services and Open-Source Learning Repositories, Open-Source Middleware Suites, MOOC, Mobile-Learning Low-Range/Midrange Handsets (10 total)

New: Tin Can API, Cognitive Computing Education Applications, Personal Analytics, Digital Workplace Graph, Digital Assessment, Classroom 3D Printing, MOOC-Enabling Technologies, Competency-Based Education Platforms, Learning Analytics, DevOps, Master Data Management, Open-Source Enterprise Service Bus (12 total)


A

n

a

l

o

g

Explaining the Education Digitization-Digitalization Dimension

Digitization Digitalization

Mashware Adaptive E-textbooks

MOOC — Social Learning


E-book Readers

E-textbook

First-order Effects

Second-/Third-order Effects

LP CD Spotify/Pandora iTunes

MOOC — Scale

MOOC — Weekly assignments

Open Microcredentials BPO

Napster

ERP

MOOC — Peer Grading

Watson Advisor

MOOC — Machine Learning Essay Grading


Hype Cycle for Education, 2015 - Digitalization

Innovation Trigger





time

expectations

As of July 2015


Quantum Computing



SaaS SIS

Affective Computing


Digital Assessment




DevOps

Cloud Office






Management






Cloud HPC/CaaS

802.11ac Wave 1



BYOD Strategy





Tin Can API

Personal Analytics



Citizen Developers

COBIT

ITIL

more than 10 years



less than 2 years

5 to 10 years

2 to 5 years





Evolving 'Infrastructure' — Next: Focus on Exostructure!

Organization

Endostructure (inside support) Skeleton, ERP, LMS

Exostructure (outside support)

Exoskeleton, GAPE, Caliper, QTI, EduPerson, MLO

Infrastructure (underpinning support) Road, Sewer, Cabling, Electricity

Suprastructure (overarching support) TCP/IP, SMTP/MIME, DNS

Specific (Industry) Standards

Generic Standards

Generic Standards

”Standards Enable Flexibility”


Hype Cycle for Education, 2015 - Exostructure

Innovation Trigger





time

expectations

As of July 2015


Quantum Computing



SaaS SIS

Affective Computing


Digital Assessment




DevOps

Cloud Office






Management






Cloud HPC/CaaS

802.11ac Wave 1



BYOD Strategy





Tin Can API

Personal Analytics



Citizen Developers

COBIT

ITIL

more than 10 years



less than 2 years

5 to 10 years

2 to 5 years





A Golden Triangle?

Au

Scalability

Affordability Quality

Global Key Issue: How to get scalable, affordable quality education so that every

citizen of the world can reach its full potential?

Local Key Issue: What investments in information technology will be strategic

in positioning the institution for long-term success in fulfilling its mission?

Enabled by Technology?


Can Three As Solve The Problem?

Source: Hype Cycle for Education, 2015 (G00277499).

Innovation Trigger





time

expectations

As of July 2015


Quantum Computing



SaaS SIS

Affective Computing


Digital Assessment




DevOps

Cloud Office






Management






Cloud HPC/CaaS

802.11ac Wave 1



BYOD Strategy





Tin Can API

Personal Analytics



Citizen Developers

COBIT

ITIL

more than 10 years



less than 2 years

5 to 10 years

2 to 5 years

Hype Cycle for Education, 2015

A

A

A


Analytics, Assessment and Adaptive Learning

Assessment Adaptive Learning

Analytics

Data

Algorithmic Education Precursors?!


Algorithmic Education?! The Next Step? Building on the Three As…

By 2020 10% of higher education institutions will use cognitive computing to improve student success

By 2020 10 of the top 100 research universities will use cognitive computing to increase research output and win more grants

By 2020 50% of SMART machines will fail due to lack off affective computing capabilities (skills)

Innovation Trigger





time

expectations

As of July 2015


Quantum Computing



SaaS SIS

Affective Computing


Digital Assessment




DevOps

Cloud Office






Management






Cloud HPC/CaaS

802.11ac Wave 1



BYOD Strategy





Tin Can API

Personal Analytics



Citizen Developers

COBIT

ITIL

more than 10 years



less than 2 years

5 to 10 years

2 to 5 years

"Hype Cycle for Education, 2015" (G00277499)

A

A

A

DRAFT Predicts! Alchemy.cs.washington.edu www.tensorflow.org


The End

Dr. Jan-Martin Lowendahl

[email protected]


Higher Education Market Clock 2015

Identify

Strategic

Opportunities

Evaluate

Sourcing

Options

Establish

Replacement

Plans

Begin

Replacement


Top Ten Business Trends (What We See):

1. Student Success

2. Competency-based Education

3. Reinventing Credits

4. Analytics, Analytics, Analytics

5. Broad Branding

6. Breaching Boundaries

7. (Re) Thinking Business Models

8. Emerging Political Innovation

9. Innovative Learning Spaces

10.E-research

11.Digital (in) Strategy (bonus in toolkit)

12.Ed-Tech boom (bonus in toolkit)

1. Student Success

2. Reinventing Credits

3. Glocal Competition for Students

4. (Re) Thinking Business Models

5. Retreating Political Responsibility

6. Competency-based Education

7. Learning Analytics

8. Data-driven Decisions

9. Consumerized Expectations

10.E-research

11.Race Against the Machine (bonus in toolkit)

12.An Aging Workforce (bonus in toolkit)

2016 2015


Top Ten Strategic Technologies (What We Think You Should Do):

1. Adaptive Learning

2. Predictive Analytics

3. CRM (Enroll., Ret., Alumni)

4. Exostructure

5. Open Microcredentials

6. Digital Assessment

7. Cognitive Computing

8. OER-Ecosystem (Content collaboration and self-publishing)

9. Listening and Sensing Tech

10.Collaboration Tech

11.MOOC-Enabling Technologies (bonus in toolkit)

12.Physical Virtual Presence

1. Adaptive Learning

2. (Adaptive) E-textbooks

3. CRM (Enroll., Ret., Alumni)

4. Big Data

5. Sourcing Strategies (Cloud)

6. Exostructure

7. Open Microcredentials

8. Digital Assessment

9. Mobile

10.Social Learning

11.MOOCish Technologies (bonus in toolkit) – name change

12.Cognitive Computing (bonus from toolkit)


"Traditional" IT Strategy Template

Executive Summary

Demand

Control

Supply

Institution Context

Institution Success

Institution Capabilities

IT Contribution

IT Principles

IT Governance

IT Financial Management

Metrics

IT Services


People

Sourcing

Risks and Issues

Detailed Appendixes

"Plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.“ ― Dwight D. Eisenhower

"IT Strategy: A CIO Success Kit" (G00166022)

"IT Strategy Template" (G00167280)

Rise to the Leadership Challenge


Team Sport Tools to Strategize and Prioritize — the Agile Strategic Planning Process

Control

IT Principles

IT Governance

IT Financial Management

Metrics

Supply

IT Services


People

Sourcing

ServPort

Demand

Institution Context

Institution Success

Institution Capabilities

IT Contribution

Education Ecosystem

HEBusModScen

StratCapMap

StratTecMap

Doing the right thing

Hype Cycle

EDU Bus Top 10

Doing things right

ProjPort

ServPort

ServCat

SimServSourcMap

DigEduMom

Tech Top 10 IT-Market Clock

Rise to the Leadership Challenge


Higher Education "Business Model" Scenarios — Technological Decisions by Storytelling

Perceived Quality

Everybody's U

Scale

Collectively Defined

Inclusive

Personally Defined

Exclusive

All About U Me, Not U

Only Us U

Oxford

Community

College

Wharton

U.K. Open

University

Source: "Four 'Business Model' Scenarios for Higher Education: An Introduction to Strategic Planning Through Storytelling" (G00167364)


#GartnerSYM

19 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY | © 2015 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner and ITxpo are registered trademarks of Gartner, Inc. or it's affiliates.

Cui Bono?


Explaining the "Benefit Map" — Cui Bono!

The fundamental question is "cui bono" (who benefits?):

The organization or I — We or Me?

Marcus Tullius Cicero (106-43 BCE)

"Unsocial Sociability" Immanuel Kant (1724-1804)

Representing the tension between the lower-right corner and the

upper-left corner.

Direct Impact

Enabler

Corporate Green Light

Hot Spot!

People's Choice

Org

an

iza

tio

na

l E

ffe

cti

ve

ne

ss

Personal Effectiveness Me

We

Indirect Impact

Direct Impact

Indirect Impact

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Immanuel_Kant_3.jpg


Education Example: Shortlist

Innovation Trigger

Peak of

Inflated Expectations


Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of

Productivity

time

expectations

As of July 2014



BPO

Open Microcredentials

Alumni CRM

Open-Source SIS



Learning Stack Wireless as a Service

Adaptive Learning MOOC

Gamification Digital Preservation of Research Data

EA Frameworks

BYOD Strategy

Cloud Office Systems

Open-Source Middleware Suites

Cloud HPC/CaaS

Social Learning Platform for Education Mobile Learning Smartphones

SaaS Administration

Applications


Cloud Email for Staff and Faculty

Lecture Capture and Retrieval Tools

E-Textbook

CRM Enroll.

Tablet

E-Book Readers

SOA

OC IAM

Email

Web/App. Hosting

LMS

FIAM

Mashups

SIS

"Connect the Dots to Engage Faculty in Technology Strategy: The Learning Stack Example," G00273243


Connecting the Dots: Simple Example

E-Textbook

Cloud Email Faculty

SaaS Admin. App.

EA

Lecture Capture and Retrieval

SIS Standards

Exostructure

BPO

OSS Middleware Suites

"Cloud" Office

Social Learning Platform

Mobile Learning Smartphone

WaaS

MOOC

Learning Stack

Adaptive Learning

OSS SIS

CRM Ret.



CRM Enroll.

SOA

OC IAM

Email

LMS

Web/App. Hosting

FIAM

Social Media

Tablet

Mashups

E-Book Readers

SIS

Corporate Green Light Hot Spot

People's Choice Enabler

Re

late

s t

o In

sti

tuti

on

al R

OI

Relates to Student, Faculty or Staff Experience

Org

an

iza

tio

na

l E

ffic

ien

cy

Personal Productivity

Hype Cycle Color Key

High Low Risk

Legend

Enabler: Often infrastructure technologies

Corporate Green Light: Often systems with direct impact on the administrative process efficiency

People's Choice: Often personal productivity, consumer technologies

Hot Spot: Often innovative technologies creating competitive advantage



Connecting the Dots: The Learning Stack Story

E-Textbook

Cloud Email Faculty

SaaS Admin. App.

EA

Lecture Capture and Retrieval

SIS Standards

Exostructure

BPO

CRM Enroll.

SOA

OC IAM

Email

LMS

Web/App. Hosting

FIAM

Social Media

Tablet

Mashups

E-Book Readers

OSS Middleware Suites

"Cloud" Office

Social Learning Platform

Mobile Learning Smartphone

WaaS

MOOC

Learning Stack

Adaptive Learning

OSS SIS

CRM Ret.



SIS

Corporate Green Light Hot Spot

People's Choice Enabler

Re

late

s t

o In

sti

tuti

on

al R

OI

Relates to Student, Faculty or Staff Experience

Org

an

iza

tio

na

l E

ffic

ien

cy

Personal Productivity

Hype Cycle Color Key

High Low Risk

Legend

Enabler: Often enabling infrastructure technologies

Corporate Green Light: Often systems with direct impact on the administrative process efficiency

People's Choice: Often personal productivity, consumer technologies

Hot Spot: Often innovative technologies creating competitive advantage

Start

End



This was to inform you that we have the speaking slot on Dec 2nd at

11.55 am to 12. 35 pm. It will be a 30 min slot followed by 10 mins of

Q&A.

The topic for the presentation would be “Understanding Emerging

Technologies in Higher Education leveraging Hype Cycle”. We would

be submitting your unfinished version of presentation to Dr Anil in last

week of November.


Synopsis

Tzunami

Digitalization

Exostructure (add)

Exemplify with AAA…

End with Algorithmic education…

Bonus Material

– Be prepared to show HEBMS

– Benefit Map?

– Digital Moment

– Show the D/S ToC?

Documents

Understanding Emerging Technologies in Higher Education ... · Gamification Wireless as a Service Digital Preservation of Research Data ... By 2020 10% of higher education institutions