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UFE 2008 Analysis1
UFE 2008 ANALYSIS
Compiled by Load ProfilingEnergy Analysis & Aggregation
UFE 2008 Analysis2
UFE Basics
Sources of UFE include:■ Generation Measurement Errors■ Load - Missing/Erroneous Usage Data
- Model Error - Load Profile ID Assignment Error - Theft
■ Losses - Model Error - Loss Code Assignment Error
Negative UFE indicates load/losses are overestimated
UFE (unaccounted for energy) is computed as follows:UFE = Generation – (Load + Losses)
UFE 2008 Analysis3
UFE Basics
Net Generation for Settlement Interval
Interval Data Energy Usage
Profiled Energy Usage Non-Interval Data
Non-Metered Accounts
Losses:Transmission &
Distribution
UFEGAP - - - - - - >
Net GenerationCompared toLoad Buildup
UFE 2008 Analysis4
OVERVIEW OF THE SETTLEMENT PROCESS
UFE is computed for each 15-minute interval of a settlement run.
Initial
Final
Settlement
True-Up
Initial Settlement(posted on day 10 after the operating day)
Final Settlement(posted on day 60 after the operating day)
True-up Settlement (posted 6 months after operating day)
Resettlement statement (posted as needed)
UFE 2008 Analysis5
Load Weighted Calculation of MCPE
Market Clearing Price for Energy (MCPE) is the highest price by Congestion Zone for a Settlement Interval for Balancing Energy deployed during the Settlement Interval.
In 2008 there were 4 congestion zones – H08, N08, S08 and W08.
The load weighted MCPE is calculated for each 15 min. interval using the LCMZone cuts as follows:
MCPE_LWTD = ((LCMZone_H08_MWh * MCPEL_H08) + (LCMZone_N08_MWh * MCPEL_N08) + (LCMZone_S08_MWh * MCPEL_S08) + (LCMZone_W08_MWh * MCPEL_W08)) /
(LCMZone_H08_MWh + LCMZone_N08_MWh + LCMZone_S08_MWh + LCMZone_W08_MWh)
UFE 2008 Analysis6
Annual validation 2007 was completed. Hurricanes Dolly, Edouard and Ike struck
the Texas coast. Dolly made landfall at 1 p.m. CDT, July 23 on
South Padre Island as a Category 1 hurricane.
Edouard made landfall in Southeast Texas near Port Arthur on the morning of August 5 as a strong tropical storm.
Ike made landfall on Galveston Island on September 13 as a strong Category 2 hurricane. Its large size brought storm surge of over 12 feet from Galveston Island eastward into southern Louisiana. Power was disrupted in most of the Houston area. Coast Weather Zone profiles were adjusted.
Events that Influenced 2008 UFE
UFE 2008 Analysis7
Edouard conclusions: Ercot Load at model peak (8-4-08 16:45)
was reduced by about 1,682 MW as a result of Hurricane Edouard
IDR Coast: 529 MW IDR Non-Coast: 490 MW NIDR: 662 MW
Ercot Actual Load returned to predicted load levels on 8-6-08
IDR Coast actual load returned to predicted load levels on 8-8-08
Total Ercot energy reduction was about 23.1GWH as a result of Hurricane Edouard
Events that Influenced 2008 UFE
UFE 2008 Analysis8
Ike conclusions: Ercot Load was reduced across the 9-
10-08 to 9-28-08 time period by about 1,378 GWH as a result of Hurricane Ike
Largest 1-Day loss: 206 GWH on 9-13-08
Events that Influenced 2008 UFE
UFE 2008 Analysis9
LOAD AND UFE – ERCOT PEAK 2008
SR01
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89
Per
cen
t
MW
H
Interval
ERCOT Load and UFE 2007 Peak Day - August 4, 2008Initial Settlement
ERCOT Load
Percent UFE
UFE
Daily avg percent UFE = 0.172
UFE 2008 Analysis10SR02
LOAD AND UFE – ERCOT PEAK 2008
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89
Per
cen
t
MW
H
Interval
ERCOT Load and UFE 2007 Peak Day - August 4, 2008Final Settlement
ERCOT Load
Percent UFE
UFE
Daily avg percent UFE = 0.311
UFE 2008 Analysis11SR03
LOAD AND UFE – ERCOT PEAK 2008
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89
Per
cen
t
MW
H
Interval
ERCOT Load and UFE 2007 Peak Day - August 4, 2008True Up Settlement
ERCOT Load
Percent UFE
UFE
Daily avg percent UFE = 0.331
UFE 2008 Analysis12
UFE MWh by Month in 2008Initial Settlement
SR04
-800,000
-600,000
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
MW
h
UFE ABS UFE
ABS Annual UFE = 7,907,020 MWh
Annual UFE = 872,190 MWh
UFE 2008 Analysis13
UFE Cost by Month in 2008 Initial Settlement
SR05
-40,000,000
-20,000,000
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Do
lla
rs
UFE Cost ABS UFE CostUFE Cost = Σ(MCPE x UFE_Mwh)
ABS Annual UFE Cost = $545,602,999
Annual UFE Cost = $215,948,883
UFE 2008 Analysis14
UFE MWh by Month in 2008Final Settlement
SR06
-1,000,000
-800,000
-600,000
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
MW
h
UFE ABS UFE
Annual UFE = 1,630,719 MWh
ABS Annual UFE = 5,801,568 MWh
UFE 2008 Analysis15
UFE Cost by Month in 2008 Final Settlement
SR07
-50,000,000
-40,000,000
-30,000,000
-20,000,000
-10,000,000
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Do
lla
rs
UFE Cost ABS UFE CostUFE Cost = Σ(MCPE x UFE_Mwh)
ABS Annual UFE Cost = $406,630,535
Annual UFE Cost = $139,617,087
UFE 2008 Analysis16
UFE MWh by Month in 2008 True-Up Settlement
SR08
-900,000
-700,000
-500,000
-300,000
-100,000
100,000
300,000
500,000
700,000
900,000
1,100,000
1,300,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
MW
h
UFE ABS UFE
Annual UFE = 1,541,086 MWh
ABS Annual UFE = 5,887,262 MWh
UFE 2008 Analysis17
UFE Cost by Month in 2008 True-UP Settlement
SR09
-60,000,000
-50,000,000
-40,000,000
-30,000,000
-20,000,000
-10,000,000
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Do
llar
s
UFE Cost ABS UFE CostUFE Cost = Σ(MCPE x UFE_Mwh)
ABS Annual UFE Cost = $411,817,947
Annual UFE Cost = $134,692,211
UFE 2008 Analysis18
ABS UFE MWh by Month in 2008 Initial, Final and True Up Settlements
SR09a
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
MW
h
Initial Final True Up
UFE 2008 Analysis19
ABS UFE Cost by Month in 2008 Initial, Final and True-Up Settlements
SR09b
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
100,000,000
110,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Do
lla
rs
Initial Final True UpUFE Cost = Σ(MCPE x UFE_Mwh)
UFE 2008 Analysis20
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2008
SR10
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
2002 31,980 30,107 19,209 55,703 7,437
2003 32,489 30,824 19,282 59,992 7,546
2004 32,909 31,162 20,231 58,528 7,448
2005 34,155 31,901 20,482 60,272 8,452
2006 34,884 32,707 21,223 62,430 8,508
2007 35,008 33,324 21,701 62,250 7,470
2008 35,304 33,423 19,574 62,266 8,091
2002 32,002 30,116 19,211 56,233 7,467
2003 32,517 30,850 19,292 59,996 7,562
2004 32,917 31,166 20,231 58,531 7,445
2005 34,161 31,911 20,486 60,270 8,454
2006 34,899 32,716 21,225 62,434 8,502
2007 35,016 33,332 21,715 62,265 7,471
2008 35,313 33,431 19,579 62,269 8,091
2002 32,052 30,142 19,266 56,248 7,479
2003 32,532 30,865 19,310 60,095 7,571
2004 32,917 31,166 20,231 58,531 7,445
2005 34,162 31,912 20,490 60,274 8,453
2006 34,902 32,722 21,225 62,434 8,502
2007 35,016 33,330 21,712 62,265 7,471
2008 35,314 33,433 19,579 62,269 8,091
INITIAL
FINAL
TRUE-UP
ERCOT LOAD (MW)
ERCOT LOAD (MW)
ERCOT LOAD (MW)
UFE 2008 Analysis21
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2008
SR11a
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
2002 -2,176 -2,228 -6,969 5,673 1,572
2003 -314 -400 -3,906 3,798 1,003
2004 67 -9 -4,558 4,559 792
2005 75 45 -5,537 3,538 881
2006 110 69 -2,957 4,543 877
2007 338 305 -4,000 6,666 900
2008 101 120 -10,954 4,511 1,375
2002 -1,624 -1,598 -5,954 3,427 1,147
2003 -6 -119 -3,172 3,728 891
2004 130 56 -3,929 4,302 721
2005 118 77 -4,199 3,163 750
2006 257 220 -2,288 3,351 707
2007 337 305 -3,068 3,972 644
2008 189 164 -4,593 4,479 901
2002 -456 -553 -3,371 3,803 898
2003 192 72 -2,886 4,065 857
2004 153 83 -3,879 4,299 719
2005 124 82 -4,155 3,190 750
2006 263 225 -2,296 3,332 706
2007 333 300 -3,076 3,975 643
2008 179 161 -4,853 4,513 919
INITIAL
FINAL
TRUE-UP
UFE (MW)
UFE (MW)
UFE (MW)
UFE 2008 Analysis22
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2008
SR11b
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
2002 2,321 2,257 0 6,969 1,348
2003 857 759 0 3,906 607
2004 606 472 0 4,559 515
2005 649 491 0 5,537 600
2006 673 528 0 4,543 574
2007 723 562 0 6,666 633
2008 918 644 0 10,954 1,029
2002 1,696 1,601 0 5,954 1,038
2003 707 599 0 3,728 542
2004 550 414 0 4,302 484
2005 567 426 0 4,199 505
2006 574 449 0 3,351 486
2007 560 445 0 3,972 463
2008 673 491 0 4,593 628
2002 838 771 0 3,803 559
2003 672 528 0 4,065 565
2004 551 413 0 4,299 487
2005 568 427 0 4,155 505
2006 574 450 0 3,332 488
2007 558 443 0 3,975 462
2008 683 497 0 4,853 640
|UFE| (MW)
INITIAL
|UFE| (MW)
|UFE| (MW)
TRUE-UP
FINAL
UFE 2008 Analysis23
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2008
SR12a
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
2002 -7.0 -7.1 -24.1 16.8 5.1
2003 -1.3 -1.3 -12.7 9.4 3.2
2004 0.1 0.0 -11.5 13.9 2.4
2005 0.2 0.1 -18.9 10.3 2.6
2006 0.2 0.2 -8.8 11.1 2.5
2007 0.9 0.9 -14.6 14.4 2.5
2008 0.1 0.3 -36.9 11.8 4.3
2002 -5.3 -5.2 -20.6 9.5 3.8
2003 -0.2 -0.4 -10.3 9.4 2.7
2004 0.3 0.2 -9.9 13.1 2.1
2005 0.3 0.2 -14.7 9.3 2.2
2006 0.7 0.7 -7.0 9.2 2.0
2007 0.9 0.9 -11.2 13.2 1.8
2008 0.5 0.5 -11.1 10.2 2.5
2002 -1.7 -1.8 -14.8 10.5 2.9
2003 0.4 0.2 -7.9 9.9 2.5
2004 0.4 0.3 -9.8 13.1 2.1
2005 0.3 0.3 -14.6 9.2 2.2
2006 0.7 0.7 -7.0 9.1 2.0
2007 0.9 0.9 -11.3 13.2 1.8
2008 0.4 0.5 -11.8 10.1 2.6
INITIAL
FINAL
TRUE-UP
UFE as PERCENT of LOAD
UFE as PERCENT of LOAD
UFE as PERCENT of LOAD
UFE 2008 Analysis24
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2008
SR12b
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
2002 7.5 7.2 0.0 24.1 4.4
2003 2.8 2.4 0.0 12.7 2.0
2004 1.8 1.5 0.0 13.9 1.5
2005 1.9 1.5 0.0 18.9 1.7
2006 1.9 1.6 0.0 11.1 1.6
2007 2.1 1.7 0.0 14.6 1.7
2008 2.7 1.9 0.0 36.9 3.4
2002 5.6 5.2 0.0 20.6 3.5
2003 2.2 1.9 0.0 10.3 1.6
2004 1.7 1.3 0.0 13.1 1.4
2005 1.7 1.3 0.0 14.7 1.4
2006 1.6 1.4 0.0 9.2 1.3
2007 1.6 1.3 0.0 13.2 1.3
2008 1.9 1.4 0.0 11.1 1.7
2002 2.7 2.5 0.0 14.8 1.9
2003 2.0 1.7 0.0 9.9 1.5
2004 1.7 1.3 0.0 13.1 1.4
2005 1.7 1.3 0.0 14.6 1.4
2006 1.6 1.4 0.0 9.1 1.3
2007 1.6 1.3 0.0 13.2 1.3
2008 2.0 1.4 0.0 11.8 1.8
INITIAL
FINAL
TRUE-UP
|UFE as PERCENT of Load|
|UFE as PERCENT of Load|
|UFE as PERCENT of Load|
UFE 2008 Analysis25
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2008
SR13a
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
2002
2003 356 -1,785 -88,773 511,652 17,737
2004 2,279 -57 -76,418 200,563 11,501
2005 4,224 386 -183,607 730,583 24,830
2006 4,131 596 -164,012 524,472 19,452
2007 6,522 3,033 -148,380 971,848 26,131
2008 6,266 1,120 -414,016 2,284,016 59,287
2002 -2,067 -1,841 -23,686 580,173 21,632
2003 2,663 -635 -132,426 824,621 22,931
2004 2,694 442 -92,510 164,969 10,532
2005 4,738 722 -220,201 596,968 21,409
2006 5,329 1,983 -118,425 452,539 16,076
2007 5,993 3,111 -115,711 649,964 20,154
2008 4,051 1,577 -1,624,294 1,687,088 40,720
2002 -1,777 -2,287 -121,635 933,143 13,866
2003 4,993 496 -86,677 904,970 24,964
2004 2,923 632 -92,408 168,849 10,577
2005 4,970 776 -212,732 603,737 21,679
2006 5,379 2,020 -116,067 455,747 16,094
2007 5,939 3,062 -115,201 645,980 20,101
2008 3,908 1,544 -1,748,888 1,692,783 42,155
INITIAL
FINAL
TRUE-UP
Note: UFE and |UFE| costs are not calculated for initial settlement in 2002 because LCMZONE cuts are not available to calculate the load weighted MCPE.
UFE Cost ($)
UFE Cost ($)
UFE Cost ($)
UFE 2008 Analysis26
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2008
SR13b
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
2002
2003 8,804 5,560 0 511,652 15,401
2004 6,887 4,055 0 200,563 9,489
2005 12,447 6,177 0 730,583 21,895
2006 9,886 5,543 0 524,472 17,254
2007 10,847 6,229 0 971,848 24,651
2008 15,831 7,876 0 2,284,016 57,477
2002 5,664 3,579 0 580,173 20,978
2003 8,596 4,699 0 824,621 21,425
2004 6,297 3,630 0 164,969 8,862
2005 10,923 5,345 0 596,968 19,012
2006 8,615 4,670 0 452,539 14,582
2007 8,517 4,977 0 649,964 19,224
2008 11,799 6,100 0 1,687,088 39,183
2002 5,251 3,780 0 933,143 12,955
2003 8,695 4,137 0 904,970 23,928
2004 6,329 3,605 0 168,849 8,964
2005 11,016 5,338 0 603,737 19,321
2006 8,620 4,688 0 455,747 14,617
2007 8,487 4,970 0 645,980 19,164
2008 11,949 6,160 0 1,748,888 40,615
TRUE-UP
Note: UFE and |UFE| costs are not calculated for initial settlement in 2002 because LCMZONE cuts are not available to calculate the load weighted MCPE.
INITIAL
FINAL
|UFE Cost| ($)
|UFE Cost| ($)
|UFE Cost| ($)
UFE 2008 Analysis27
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2008
SR14a
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
2002
2003 -1.0 -1.0 -11.4 9.4 3.1
2004 0.1 0.0 -11.5 13.9 2.4
2005 0.2 0.1 -18.9 10.3 2.6
2006 0.2 0.2 -8.8 11.1 2.5
2007 0.9 0.9 -14.6 14.4 2.5
2008 0.2 0.3 -36.1 11.8 4.2
2002 -2.2 -2.1 -9.4 3.0 2.6
2003 -0.1 -0.3 -8.7 9.4 2.6
2004 0.3 0.2 -9.9 13.1 2.1
2005 0.3 0.2 -14.7 9.3 2.2
2006 0.7 0.7 -7.0 9.2 2.0
2007 0.9 0.9 -11.2 13.2 1.8
2008 0.5 0.5 -11.1 10.2 2.5
2002 -1.6 -1.8 -14.8 10.5 2.9
2003 0.4 0.2 -7.9 9.5 2.5
2004 0.4 0.3 -9.8 13.1 2.1
2005 0.3 0.3 -14.6 9.2 2.2
2006 0.7 0.7 -7.0 9.1 2.0
2007 0.9 0.9 -11.3 13.2 1.8
2008 0.4 0.5 -11.8 10.1 2.6
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
INITIAL
FINAL
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
TRUE-UP
Note: UFE and |UFE| costs are not calculated for initial settlement in 2002 because LCMZONE cuts are not available to calculate the load weighted MCPE.
UFE 2008 Analysis28
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2008
SR14b
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
2002
2003 2.6 2.3 0.0 11.4 1.9
2004 1.8 1.5 0.0 13.9 1.5
2005 1.9 1.5 0.0 18.9 1.7
2006 1.9 1.6 0.0 11.1 1.6
2007 2.1 1.7 0.0 14.6 1.7
2008 2.7 1.8 0.0 36.1 3.2
2002 2.7 2.2 0.0 9.4 2.1
2003 2.1 1.9 0.0 9.4 1.5
2004 1.7 1.3 0.0 13.1 1.4
2005 1.7 1.3 0.0 14.7 1.4
2006 1.6 1.4 0.0 9.2 1.3
2007 1.6 1.3 0.0 13.2 1.3
2008 1.9 1.4 0.0 11.1 1.7
2002 2.7 2.5 0.0 14.8 1.9
2003 2.0 1.7 0.0 9.5 1.5
2004 1.7 1.3 0.0 13.1 1.4
2005 1.7 1.3 0.0 14.6 1.4
2006 1.6 1.4 0.0 9.1 1.3
2007 1.6 1.3 0.0 13.2 1.3
2008 2.0 1.4 0.0 11.8 1.7
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
TRUE-UP
Note: UFE and |UFE| costs are not calculated for initial settlement in 2002 because LCMZONE cuts are not available to calculate the load weighted MCPE.
INITIAL
FINAL
UFE 2008 Analysis29
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2008
SR15
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
ERCOT Total Load (MW) 34,237 33,679 23,123 46,255 4,920 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 31,218 31,545 23,315 46,085 3,589
FINAL FINALERCOT Total Load (MW) 34,244 33,685 23,125 46,262 4,920 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 31,226 31,553 23,325 46,092 3,589
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPERCOT Total Load (MW) 34,247 33,689 23,125 46,262 4,919 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 31,226 31,553 23,325 46,092 3,589
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
ERCOT Total Load (MW) 30,641 31,241 22,403 42,886 4,065 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 31,190 31,215 22,142 46,120 5,022
FINAL FINALERCOT Total Load (MW) 30,649 31,247 22,411 42,894 4,065 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 31,201 31,224 22,151 46,418 5,030
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPERCOT Total Load (MW) 30,649 31,247 22,411 42,894 4,065 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 31,201 31,224 22,151 46,418 5,030
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
ERCOT Total Load (MW) 37,613 36,091 23,076 56,379 7,816 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 44,034 44,561 27,806 59,699 8,173
FINAL FINALERCOT Total Load (MW) 37,622 36,126 23,087 56,386 7,815 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 44,041 44,569 27,811 59,705 8,173
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPERCOT Total Load (MW) 37,626 36,126 23,087 56,386 7,818 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 44,041 44,569 27,811 59,706 8,173
JANUARY
MARCH
FEBRUARY
APRIL
MAY JUNE
UFE 2008 Analysis30SR16
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2008
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
ERCOT Total Load (MW) 43,458 43,845 28,802 60,497 8,356 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 43,165 42,294 28,619 62,266 8,377
FINAL FINALERCOT Total Load (MW) 43,464 43,851 28,806 60,503 8,355 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 43,169 42,297 28,621 62,269 8,378
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPERCOT Total Load (MW) 43,464 43,851 28,806 60,503 8,356 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 43,169 42,297 28,621 62,269 8,378
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
ERCOT Total Load (MW) 35,789 34,595 19,574 56,434 8,342 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 32,157 31,797 22,467 46,748 5,599
FINAL FINALERCOT Total Load (MW) 35,792 34,597 19,579 56,439 8,342 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 32,165 31,800 22,473 46,752 5,597
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPERCOT Total Load (MW) 35,793 34,597 19,579 56,439 8,343 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 32,167 31,805 22,473 46,757 5,599
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
ERCOT Total Load (MW) 29,553 30,015 22,134 38,968 3,686 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 32,740 32,004 22,073 48,008 5,354
FINAL FINALERCOT Total Load (MW) 29,575 30,032 22,138 38,974 3,687 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 32,753 32,010 22,078 48,047 5,367
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPERCOT Total Load (MW) 29,575 30,032 22,138 38,974 3,687 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 32,754 32,011 22,078 48,048 5,367
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JULY AUGUST
UFE 2008 Analysis31SR17
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2008
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE (MW) 673 628 -2,021 3,904 846 UFE (MW) -118 -228 -1,914 2,121 735
FINAL FINALUFE (MW) 327 337 -2,382 3,105 762 UFE (MW) 110 20 -1,667 1,997 660
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE (MW) 335 340 -2,382 3,102 759 UFE (MW) 118 29 -1,687 2,003 660
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE (MW) -242 -295 -3,699 3,909 1,089 UFE (MW) -7 -23 -2,074 1,909 562
FINAL FINALUFE (MW) 100 112 -2,646 3,494 842 UFE (MW) 54 52 -1,673 1,782 522
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE (MW) 99 112 -2,650 3,505 844 UFE (MW) 57 56 -1,664 1,775 522
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE (MW) 735 675 -1,289 3,414 807 UFE (MW) -15 -16 -2,295 1,544 698
FINAL FINALUFE (MW) 216 226 -1,773 2,435 589 UFE (MW) 130 151 -1,642 1,669 529
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE (MW) 202 218 -1,791 2,416 589 UFE (MW) 131 150 -1,642 1,686 527
MAY
JANUARY
MARCH
FEBRUARY
APRIL
JUNE
UFE 2008 Analysis32SR18
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2008
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE (MW) 100 158 -2,236 1,709 635 UFE (MW) 197 207 -2,995 2,227 767
FINAL FINALUFE (MW) 242 268 -1,892 1,550 504 UFE (MW) 449 483 -2,222 2,598 735
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE (MW) 257 283 -1,879 1,572 504 UFE (MW) 482 512 -2,125 2,636 733
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE (MW) -930 210 -10,954 3,481 3,052 UFE (MW) 1,390 1,522 -1,741 4,511 1,329
FINAL FINALUFE (MW) 1,538 1,383 -702 4,479 965 UFE (MW) -1,065 1,534 3 4,511 1,035
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE (MW) 1,531 1,374 -661 4,513 968 UFE (MW) -1,183 -1,103 -4,593 1,509 877
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE (MW) -977 -994 -2,931 1,037 687 UFE (MW) 314 308 -3,298 3,769 1,049
FINAL FINALUFE (MW) -75 -123 -1,985 1,655 534 UFE (MW) 293 216 -1,960 3,265 778
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE (MW) -108 -150 -2,051 1,639 541 UFE (MW) 282 206 -1,973 3,252 778
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JULY AUGUST
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
UFE 2008 Analysis33SR19
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2008
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE| (MW) 858 720 1 3,904 657 |UFE| (MW) 605 518 0 2,121 434
FINAL FINAL|UFE| (MW) 654 525 0 3,105 510 |UFE| (MW) 520 407 0 1,997 421
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE| (MW) 654 529 0 3,102 510 |UFE| (MW) 519 408 1 2,003 424
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE| (MW) 812 561 1 3,909 766 |UFE| (MW) 434 350 1 2,074 357
FINAL FINAL|UFE| (MW) 611 446 0 3,494 588 |UFE| (MW) 402 321 0 1,782 337
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE| (MW) 612 448 1 3,505 589 |UFE| (MW) 402 321 0 1,775 337
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE| (MW) 860 734 0 3,414 673 |UFE| (MW) 557 471 0 2,295 420
FINAL FINAL|UFE| (MW) 496 408 0 2,435 384 |UFE| (MW) 433 358 0 1,669 330
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE| (MW) 493 408 0 2,416 380 |UFE| (MW) 432 357 0 1,686 329
JANUARY
MARCH
MAY
FEBRUARY
APRIL
JUNE
UFE 2008 Analysis34SR20
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2008
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE| (MW) 518 445 0 2,236 381 |UFE| (MW) 617 486 0 2,995 496
FINAL FINAL|UFE| (MW) 448 383 0 1,892 333 |UFE| (MW) 696 617 0 2,598 506
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE| (MW) 455 390 0 1,879 337 |UFE| (MW) 712 637 0 2,636 513
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE| (MW) 2,127 1,173 1 10,954 2,378 |UFE| (MW) 1,621 1,534 3 4,511 1,035
FINAL FINAL|UFE| (MW) 1,553 1,383 1 4,479 942 |UFE| (MW) 1,164 1,110 1 4,593 741
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE| (MW) 1,547 1,374 2 4,513 942 |UFE| (MW) 1,258 1,216 0 4,853 789
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE| (MW) 1,035 994 0 2,931 598 |UFE| (MW) 857 688 0 3,769 681
FINAL FINAL|UFE| (MW) 419 328 0 1,985 339 |UFE| (MW) 629 493 0 3,265 544
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE| (MW) 432 344 3 2,051 344 |UFE| (MW) 626 489 0 3,252 541
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JULY AUGUST
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
UFE 2008 Analysis35SR21
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2008
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE as % of Load 1.88 1.88 -5.65 11.09 2.38 UFE as % of Load -0.38 -0.72 -5.91 6.15 2.37
FINAL FINALUFE as % of Load 0.91 1.02 -5.62 8.82 2.20 UFE as % of Load 0.36 0.06 -4.90 6.05 2.12
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE as % of Load 0.93 1.05 -5.45 8.81 2.19 UFE as % of Load 0.39 0.09 -4.96 6.07 2.12
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE as % of Load -0.86 -1.00 -14.10 11.70 3.34 UFE as % of Load -0.02 -0.08 -5.87 6.57 1.80
FINAL FINALUFE as % of Load 0.31 0.38 -10.08 9.99 2.59 UFE as % of Load 0.22 0.17 -4.46 6.13 1.66
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE as % of Load 0.31 0.37 -10.10 10.01 2.59 UFE as % of Load 0.23 0.19 -4.47 6.11 1.66
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE as % of Load 1.87 1.85 -3.73 9.03 1.98 UFE as % of Load -0.02 -0.04 -4.77 3.83 1.59
FINAL FINALUFE as % of Load 0.56 0.62 -4.47 6.98 1.54 UFE as % of Load 0.29 0.35 -3.33 3.65 1.19
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE as % of Load 0.53 0.61 -4.51 6.93 1.54 UFE as % of Load 0.29 0.35 -3.33 3.63 1.19
JANUARY
MARCH
MAY
FEBRUARY
APRIL
JUNE
UFE 2008 Analysis36SR22
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2008
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE as % of Load 0.21 0.36 -5.50 3.87 1.53 UFE as % of Load 0.40 0.47 -7.12 4.82 1.76
FINAL FINALUFE as % of Load 0.56 0.60 -4.32 3.75 1.17 UFE as % of Load 1.03 1.15 -5.28 5.66 1.64
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE as % of Load 0.59 0.63 -4.26 3.79 1.17 UFE as % of Load 1.11 1.21 -5.05 5.75 1.63
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE as % of Load -3.58 0.57 -36.95 8.16 10.20 UFE as % of Load 4.10 4.92 -5.57 11.76 3.81
FINAL FINALUFE as % of Load 4.17 4.16 -3.14 10.21 2.30 UFE as % of Load -3.29 -3.65 -11.13 4.58 2.48
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE as % of Load 4.15 4.15 -2.96 10.13 2.30 UFE as % of Load -3.65 -4.02 -11.75 4.25 2.52
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE as % of Load -3.27 -3.51 -10.32 3.18 2.23 UFE as % of Load 0.78 1.02 -10.64 10.21 3.16
FINAL FINALUFE as % of Load -0.22 -0.43 -6.18 5.77 1.78 UFE as % of Load 0.81 0.67 -6.48 8.77 2.32
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE as % of Load -0.34 -0.55 -6.22 5.76 1.80 UFE as % of Load 0.77 0.64 -6.52 8.73 2.32
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JULY AUGUST
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
UFE 2008 Analysis37SR23
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2008
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE as % of Load| 2.45 2.17 0.00 11.09 1.79 |UFE as % of Load| 1.95 1.66 0.00 6.15 1.39
FINAL FINAL|UFE as % of Load| 1.89 1.57 0.00 8.82 1.44 |UFE as % of Load| 1.68 1.33 0.00 6.05 1.35
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE as % of Load| 1.89 1.57 0.00 8.81 1.44 |UFE as % of Load| 1.68 1.32 0.00 6.07 1.36
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE as % of Load| 2.57 1.86 0.00 14.10 2.30 |UFE as % of Load| 1.40 1.15 0.00 6.57 1.13
FINAL FINAL|UFE as % of Load| 1.94 1.47 0.00 10.08 1.74 |UFE as % of Load| 1.29 1.04 0.00 6.13 1.07
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE as % of Load| 1.94 1.48 0.00 10.10 1.74 |UFE as % of Load| 1.29 1.03 0.00 6.11 1.07
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE as % of Load| 2.21 1.95 0.00 9.03 1.59 |UFE as % of Load| 1.28 1.10 0.00 4.77 0.94
FINAL FINAL|UFE as % of Load| 1.31 1.12 0.00 6.98 0.98 |UFE as % of Load| 0.99 0.81 0.00 3.65 0.73
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE as % of Load| 1.30 1.11 0.00 6.93 0.98 |UFE as % of Load| 0.98 0.82 0.00 3.63 0.72
JANUARY
MARCH
MAY
FEBRUARY
APRIL
JUNE
UFE 2008 Analysis38SR24
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2008
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE as % of Load| 1.23 1.03 0.00 5.50 0.93 |UFE as % of Load| 1.42 1.15 0.00 7.12 1.12
FINAL FINAL|UFE as % of Load| 1.04 0.87 0.00 4.32 0.77 |UFE as % of Load| 1.60 1.44 0.00 5.66 1.10
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE as % of Load| 1.06 0.89 0.00 4.26 0.78 |UFE as % of Load| 1.63 1.47 0.00 5.75 1.11
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE as % of Load| 6.72 3.18 0.00 36.95 8.47 |UFE as % of Load| 4.86 4.94 0.01 11.76 2.78
FINAL FINAL|UFE as % of Load| 4.23 4.16 0.00 10.21 2.19 |UFE as % of Load| 3.59 3.68 0.00 11.13 2.03
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE as % of Load| 4.21 4.15 0.01 10.13 2.19 |UFE as % of Load| 3.88 4.03 0.00 11.75 2.15
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE as % of Load| 3.47 3.51 0.00 10.32 1.91 |UFE as % of Load| 2.58 2.09 0.00 10.64 1.98
FINAL FINAL|UFE as % of Load| 1.41 1.11 0.00 6.18 1.11 |UFE as % of Load| 1.89 1.51 0.00 8.77 1.56
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE as % of Load| 1.45 1.17 0.01 6.22 1.12 |UFE as % of Load| 1.88 1.50 0.00 8.73 1.55
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JULY AUGUST
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
UFE 2008 Analysis39SR25
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2008
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE Cost ($) 11,253 7,540 -110,818 403,038 25,021 UFE Cost ($) -976 -2,632 -112,450 370,857 15,601
FINAL FINALUFE Cost ($) 5,779 4,007 -237,422 296,405 18,508 UFE Cost ($) 2,413 203 -62,707 388,874 15,214
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost ($) 5,891 4,048 -234,612 297,493 18,508 UFE Cost ($) 2,540 282 -59,103 392,840 15,313
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE Cost ($) -1,154 -2,829 -78,842 1,777,492 56,182 UFE Cost ($) -187 -266 -303,010 272,258 18,726
FINAL FINALUFE Cost ($) 3,520 1,029 -73,250 1,687,088 52,761 UFE Cost ($) -74 509 -567,727 214,704 21,142
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost ($) 3,515 1,033 -74,031 1,692,783 52,941 UFE Cost ($) -15 570 -566,467 214,968 21,134
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE Cost ($) 31,037 10,491 -127,473 2,284,016 128,329 UFE Cost ($) 56 -273 -414,016 548,220 30,505
FINAL FINALUFE Cost ($) 9,062 2,583 -212,826 1,102,409 54,630 UFE Cost ($) 4,063 3,214 -285,345 485,293 22,762
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost ($) 8,571 2,435 -219,325 1,080,972 53,525 UFE Cost ($) 4,060 3,240 -287,033 477,895 22,753
JANUARY
MARCH
MAY
FEBRUARY
APRIL
JUNE
UFE 2008 Analysis40SR26
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2008
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE Cost ($) 3,489 3,028 -43,039 310,093 18,089 UFE Cost ($) 7,840 3,012 -55,225 1,005,249 44,278
FINAL FINALUFE Cost ($) 6,699 5,160 -37,797 287,008 15,660 UFE Cost ($) 10,575 6,838 -37,215 1,090,849 36,679
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost ($) 7,078 5,448 -37,533 292,039 15,887 UFE Cost ($) 11,169 7,175 -35,461 1,102,545 37,382
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE Cost ($) 1,135 1,741 -228,063 1,966,378 60,906 UFE Cost ($) 23,350 9,588 -18,113 1,753,159 101,603
FINAL FINALUFE Cost ($) 19,338 13,382 -588,062 305,862 25,943 UFE Cost ($) -16,071 -7,155 -1,624,294 161,996 90,812
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost ($) 19,231 13,240 -597,644 302,968 26,168 UFE Cost ($) -17,800 -8,058 -1,748,888 140,579 97,921
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE Cost ($) -9,490 -6,741 -405,840 298,064 16,006 UFE Cost ($) 6,074 2,039 -47,481 726,576 25,705
FINAL FINALUFE Cost ($) -470 -541 -196,983 522,237 12,991 UFE Cost ($) 4,643 1,392 -17,880 742,296 21,742
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost ($) -811 -711 -232,869 515,350 13,153 UFE Cost ($) 4,521 1,317 -17,996 733,788 21,519
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JULY AUGUST
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
UFE 2008 Analysis41SR27
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2008
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE COST| ($) 13,826 9,179 9.0 403,038 23,696 |UFE COST| ($) 8,859 6,160 11.7 370,857 12,877
FINAL FINAL|UFE COST| ($) 10,323 6,465 1.0 296,405 16,412 |UFE COST| ($) 7,946 4,973 7.9 388,874 13,196
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE COST| ($) 10,326 6,461 0.4 297,493 16,450 |UFE COST| ($) 7,958 4,925 5.9 392,840 13,326
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE COST| ($) 14,623 7,558 4.0 1,777,492 54,257 |UFE COST| ($) 8,717 4,913 10.8 303,010 16,573
FINAL FINAL|UFE COST| ($) 11,560 5,374 1.9 1,687,088 51,598 |UFE COST| ($) 8,404 4,472 0.6 567,727 19,400
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE COST| ($) 11,594 5,376 4.0 1,692,783 51,775 |UFE COST| ($) 8,401 4,461 0.2 566,467 19,392
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE COST| ($) 33,376 12,023 4.8 2,284,016 127,740 |UFE COST| ($) 16,423 11,136 7.3 548,220 25,705
FINAL FINAL|UFE COST| ($) 15,330 6,945 1.5 1,102,409 53,212 |UFE COST| ($) 12,777 8,435 0.4 485,293 19,270
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE COST| ($) 15,161 6,982 0.6 1,080,972 52,043 |UFE COST| ($) 12,779 8,446 3.9 477,895 19,257
JANUARY
MARCH
MAY
FEBRUARY
APRIL
JUNE
UFE 2008 Analysis42SR28
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2008
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE COST| ($) 11,882 8,761 9.7 310,093 14,077 |UFE COST| ($) 14,043 7,368 0.1 1,005,249 42,717
FINAL FINAL|UFE COST| ($) 10,922 7,949 0.4 287,008 13,069 |UFE COST| ($) 14,569 9,514 0.2 1,090,849 35,283
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE COST| ($) 11,121 8,075 1.2 292,039 13,371 |UFE COST| ($) 14,899 9,714 0.4 1,102,545 36,058
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE COST| ($) 20,707 11,513 3.6 1,966,378 57,288 |UFE COST| ($) 25,002 10,136 0.1 1,753,159 101,209
FINAL FINAL|UFE COST| ($) 19,936 13,411 0.0 588,062 25,486 |UFE COST| ($) 17,756 7,800 2.4 1,624,294 90,498
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE COST| ($) 19,864 13,260 0.1 597,644 25,691 |UFE COST| ($) 19,148 8,469 2.6 1,748,888 97,666
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE COST| ($) 10,436 7,031 1.7 405,840 15,406 |UFE COST| ($) 9,805 4,950 0.4 726,576 24,525
FINAL FINAL|UFE COST| ($) 4,439 2,266 0.0 522,237 12,217 |UFE COST| ($) 7,087 3,477 0.0 742,296 21,072
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE COST| ($) 4,574 2,304 0.0 515,350 12,358 |UFE COST| ($) 7,039 3,436 0.0 733,788 20,832
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JULY AUGUST
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
UFE 2008 Analysis43SR29
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2008
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 1.9 1.9 -5.7 11.1 2.4 UFE Cost as % of Total Cost -0.4 -0.7 -5.9 6.1 2.4
FINAL FINALUFE Cost as % of Total Cost 0.9 1.0 -5.6 8.8 2.2 UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 0.4 0.1 -4.9 6.1 2.1
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost as % of Total Cost 0.9 1.0 -5.4 8.8 2.2 UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 0.4 0.1 -5.0 6.1 2.1
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost -0.9 -1.0 -14.1 11.7 3.3 UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 0.0 -0.1 -5.9 6.6 1.8
FINAL FINALUFE Cost as % of Total Cost 0.3 0.4 -10.1 10.0 2.6 UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 0.2 0.2 -4.5 6.1 1.7
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost as % of Total Cost 0.3 0.4 -10.1 10.0 2.6 UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 0.2 0.2 -4.5 6.1 1.7
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 1.9 1.9 -3.7 9.0 2.0 UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 0.0 0.0 -4.8 3.8 1.6
FINAL FINALUFE Cost as % of Total Cost 0.6 0.6 -4.5 7.0 1.5 UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 0.3 0.4 -3.3 3.7 1.2
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost as % of Total Cost 0.5 0.6 -4.5 6.9 1.5 UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 0.3 0.3 -3.3 3.6 1.2
JANUARY
MARCH
MAY
FEBRUARY
APRIL
JUNE
UFE 2008 Analysis44SR30
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2008
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 0.2 0.4 -5.5 3.9 1.5 UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 0.4 0.5 -7.1 4.8 1.8
FINAL FINALUFE Cost as % of Total Cost 0.6 0.6 -4.3 3.8 1.2 UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 1.0 1.1 -5.3 5.7 1.6
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost as % of Total Cost 0.6 0.6 -4.3 3.8 1.2 UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 1.1 1.2 -5.1 5.7 1.6
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost -3.2 0.7 -36.1 8.2 9.7 UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 4.1 5.0 -5.6 11.8 3.8
FINAL FINALUFE Cost as % of Total Cost 4.2 4.2 -2.9 10.2 2.3 UFE Cost as % of Total Cost -3.3 -3.6 -11.1 4.6 2.5
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost as % of Total Cost 4.2 4.2 -2.7 10.1 2.3 UFE Cost as % of Total Cost -3.6 -4.0 -11.8 4.3 2.5
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost -3.3 -3.5 -10.3 3.2 2.2 UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 0.8 1.0 -10.6 10.2 3.2
FINAL FINALUFE Cost as % of Total Cost -0.2 -0.4 -6.2 5.8 1.8 UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 0.8 0.7 -6.5 8.8 2.3
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost as % of Total Cost -0.3 -0.6 -6.2 5.8 1.8 UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 0.8 0.6 -6.5 8.7 2.3
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JULY AUGUST
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
UFE 2008 Analysis45SR31
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2008
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 2.4 2.2 0.0 11.1 1.8 |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 2.0 1.7 0.0 6.1 1.4
FINAL FINAL|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.9 1.6 0.0 8.8 1.4 |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.7 1.3 0.0 6.1 1.3
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.9 1.6 0.0 8.8 1.4 |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.7 1.3 0.0 6.1 1.4
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 2.6 1.9 0.0 14.1 2.3 |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.4 1.1 0.0 6.6 1.1
FINAL FINAL|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.9 1.5 0.0 10.1 1.7 |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.3 1.0 0.0 6.1 1.1
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.9 1.5 0.0 10.1 1.7 |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.3 1.0 0.0 6.1 1.1
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 2.2 1.9 0.0 9.0 1.6 |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.3 1.1 0.0 4.8 0.9
FINAL FINAL|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.3 1.1 0.0 7.0 1.0 |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.0 0.8 0.0 3.7 0.7
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.3 1.1 0.0 6.9 1.0 |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.0 0.8 0.0 3.6 0.7
JANUARY
MARCH
MAY
FEBRUARY
APRIL
JUNE
UFE 2008 Analysis46SR32
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2008
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.2 1.0 0.0 5.5 0.9 |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.4 1.2 0.0 7.1 1.1
FINAL FINAL|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.0 0.9 0.0 4.3 0.8 |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.6 1.4 0.0 5.7 1.1
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.1 0.9 0.0 4.3 0.8 |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.6 1.5 0.0 5.7 1.1
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 6.4 3.1 0.0 36.1 8.0 |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 4.9 5.0 0.0 11.8 2.8
FINAL FINAL|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 4.3 4.2 0.0 10.2 2.2 |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 3.6 3.7 0.0 11.1 2.0
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 4.2 4.2 0.0 10.1 2.2 |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 3.9 4.0 0.0 11.8 2.2
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 3.5 3.5 0.0 10.3 1.9 |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 2.6 2.1 0.0 10.6 2.0
FINAL FINAL|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.4 1.1 0.0 6.2 1.1 |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.9 1.5 0.0 8.8 1.6
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.5 1.2 0.0 6.2 1.1 |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.9 1.5 0.0 8.7 1.6
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JULY AUGUST
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
UFE 2008 Analysis47UFD01
Distribution of UFE MW Initial, Final, and True Up - 2008
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Per
cen
t o
f In
terv
als
wit
h U
FE
Val
ues
UFE (MW)
Initial Final True Up
UFE 2008 Analysis48
Distribution of UFE as Percent of ERCOT Load - 2008
UFD03
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
-7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0
Dis
trib
uti
on
of
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
Lo
ad
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load
Initial Final True-Up
UFE 2008 Analysis49
Distribution of UFE MW 2007 vs. 2008 - Initial Settlement
UFD04
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Pe
rce
nt o
f In
terv
als
wit
h U
FE
Va
lue
s
UFE (MW)
UFE 2007 UFE 2008Initial Settlement
UFE 2008 Analysis
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
Pe
rce
nt o
f In
terv
als
wit
h U
FE
Va
lue
s
UFE (MW)
UFE 2007 UFE 2008Final Settlement
50
Distribution of UFE MW 2007 vs. 2008 - Final Settlement
UFD05
UFE 2008 Analysis
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
Pe
rce
nt o
f In
terv
als
wit
h U
FE
Va
lue
s
UFE (MW)
UFE 2007 UFE 2008True Up Settlement
51
Distribution of UFE MW 2007 vs. 2008 – True Up Settlement
UFD06
UFE 2008 Analysis52
Distribution of UFE Percent of ERCOT Load2007 vs 2008 – Initial Settlement
UFD07
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
-8.0 -7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0
Dis
trib
uti
on
of
UF
E P
erc
en
t o
f L
oa
d
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load
UFE 2007 UFE 2008Initial Settlement
UFE 2008 Analysis
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
26.0
-5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
Dis
trib
uti
on
of
UF
E P
erc
en
t o
f L
oa
d
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load
UFE 2007 UFE 2008Final Settlement
53
Distribution of UFE Percent of ERCOT Load2007 vs 2008 – Final Settlement
UFD08
UFE 2008 Analysis
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
26.0
-5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
Dis
trib
uti
on
of
UF
E P
erc
en
t o
f L
oa
d
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load
UFE 2007 UFE 2008True Up Settlement
54
Distribution of UFE Percent of ERCOT Load2007 vs 2008 – True Up Settlement
UFD09
UFE 2008 Analysis55
UFE Distribution
Initial
UFE 2008 Analysis
Settlement=1 Initial Month=1
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 00 00 00 00 09 0
40 1105 4172 6273 9525 18
1020 341554 522104 712450 822731 922853 962914 982954 992964 1002969 1002976 100
ufe
_p
erc
en
t M
IDP
OIN
T
10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -6.5 -7.5 -8.5 -9.5
-10.5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
56
UFE Distribution 2008Initial - January
UFD10
UFE 2008 Analysis
Settlement=1 Initial Month=2
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 00 00 00 00 0
30 1113 4316 11707 25
1241 451744 632091 752334 842475 892605 942718 982781 1002784 1002784 1002784 1002784 1002784 100
ufe
_p
erc
en
t M
IDP
OIN
T
10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -6.5 -7.5 -8.5 -9.5
-10.5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
57
UFE Distribution 2008Initial - February
UFD11
UFE 2008 Analysis58
UFE Distribution 2008Initial - March
UFD12
Settlement=1 Initial Month=3
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
18 0.6122 0.7442 1.4175 2.52
153 5.15257 8.65421 14.17673 22.64
1021 34.351493 50.241938 65.212321 78.102573 86.572689 90.482733 91.962797 94.112842 95.632870 96.572914 98.052934 98.722946 99.132972 100.00
ufe
_p
erc
en
t M
IDP
OIN
T
10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -6.5 -7.5 -8.5 -9.5
-10.5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500
UFE 2008 Analysis
Settlement=1 Initial Month=4
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 00 00 00 00 0
11 046 2
128 4330 11832 29
1508 522103 732533 882731 952820 982860 992875 1002880 1002880 1002880 1002880 1002880 100
ufe
_p
erc
en
t M
IDP
OIN
T
10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -6.5 -7.5 -8.5 -9.5
-10.5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
59
UFE Distribution 2008Initial - April
UFD13
UFE 2008 Analysis
Settlement=1 Initial Month=5
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 00 00 00 00 00 00 04 0
59 2229 8566 19
1075 361631 552169 732590 872793 942927 982951 992966 1002975 1002976 1002976 100
ufe
_p
erc
en
t M
IDP
OIN
T
10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -6.5 -7.5 -8.5 -9.5
-10.5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
60
UFE Distribution 2008Initial - May
UFD14
UFE 2008 Analysis
Settlement=1 Initial Month=6
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 00 00 00 00 00 0
29 1142 5298 10733 25
1463 512040 712582 902849 992880 1002880 1002880 1002880 1002880 1002880 1002880 1002880 100
ufe
_p
erc
en
t M
IDP
OIN
T
10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -6.5 -7.5 -8.5 -9.5
-10.5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
61
UFE Distribution 2008Initial - June
UFD15
UFE 2008 Analysis
Settlement=1 Initial Month=7
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 00 00 00 00 03 0
21 163 3
177 8439 21873 41
1451 691871 892042 972112 1002112 1002112 1002112 1002112 1002112 1002112 1002112 100
ufe
_p
erc
en
t M
IDP
OIN
T
10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -6.5 -7.5 -8.5 -9.5
-10.5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
62
UFE Distribution 2008Initial - July
UFD16
UFE 2008 Analysis
Settlement=1 Initial Month=8
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 00 00 02 0
10 025 143 1
122 4255 9511 18
1122 391788 622356 822725 952861 992880 1002880 1002880 1002880 1002880 1002880 1002880 100
ufe
_p
erc
en
t M
IDP
OIN
T
10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -6.5 -7.5 -8.5 -9.5
-10.5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
63
UFE Distribution 2008Initial - August
UFD17
UFE 2008 Analysis
Settlement=1 Initial Month=9
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
596 20.69639 22.19653 22.67665 23.09677 23.51718 24.93764 26.53811 28.16930 32.29
1129 39.201308 45.421560 54.171872 65.002186 75.902466 85.632673 92.812804 97.362847 98.852874 99.792880 100.002880 100.002880 100.00
ufe
_p
erc
en
t M
IDP
OIN
T
10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -6.5 -7.5 -8.5 -9.5
-10.5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
64
UFE Distribution 2008Initial - September
UFD18
UFE 2008 Analysis
Settlement=1 Initial Month=10
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 00 00 00 00 05 0
30 1104 3264 9435 15602 20748 25866 29987 33
1229 411519 511822 612187 732560 862816 952901 972976 100
ufe
_p
erc
en
t M
IDP
OIN
T
10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -6.5 -7.5 -8.5 -9.5
-10.5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400
65
UFE Distribution 2008Initial - October
UFD19
UFE 2008 Analysis
Settlement=1 Initial Month=11
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
5 0.1713 0.4540 1.39
112 3.88266 9.22588 20.39
1136 39.391735 60.162096 72.682452 85.022627 91.092780 96.392824 97.922879 99.832884 100.002884 100.002884 100.002884 100.002884 100.002884 100.002884 100.002884 100.00
ufe
_p
erc
en
t M
IDP
OIN
T
10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -6.5 -7.5 -8.5 -9.5
-10.5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
66
UFE Distribution 2008Initial - November
UFD20
UFE 2008 Analysis
Settlement=1 Initial Month=12
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
14 0.4719 0.6441 1.3855 1.8585 2.86
130 4.37207 6.96342 11.49498 16.73752 25.27
1095 36.791478 49.661918 64.452270 76.282549 85.652732 91.802870 96.442943 98.892958 99.402969 99.762973 99.902976 100.00
ufe
_p
erc
en
t M
IDP
OIN
T
10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -6.5 -7.5 -8.5 -9.5
-10.5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500
67
UFE Distribution 2008Initial - December
UFD21
UFE 2008 Analysis68
UFE Distribution
Final
UFE 2008 Analysis
Settlement=4 Final Month=1
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 00 00 00 00 0
11 055 2
132 4274 9530 18978 33
1476 502049 692557 862771 932887 972924 982948 992970 1002976 1002976 1002976 100
ufe
_p
erc
en
t M
IDP
OIN
T
10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -6.5 -7.5 -8.5 -9.5
-10.5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
69
UFE Distribution 2008Final - January
UFD22
UFE 2008 Analysis
Settlement=4 Final Month=2
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 00 00 00 00 00 0
19 198 4
311 11775 28
1350 481859 672194 792396 862570 922723 982783 1002784 1002784 1002784 1002784 1002784 100
ufe
_p
erc
en
t M
IDP
OIN
T
10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -6.5 -7.5 -8.5 -9.5
-10.5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
70
UFE Distribution 2008Final - February
UFD23
UFE 2008 Analysis
Settlement=4 Final Month=3
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
1 0.035 0.179 0.30
14 0.4728 0.9467 2.25
140 4.71284 9.56509 17.13813 27.36
1278 43.001868 62.852379 80.052664 89.642756 92.732839 95.522911 97.952926 98.452934 98.722952 99.332972 100.002972 100.00
ufe
_p
erc
en
t M
IDP
OIN
T
10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -6.5 -7.5 -8.5 -9.5
-10.5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
71
UFE Distribution 2008Final - March
UFD24
UFE 2008 Analysis
Settlement=4 Final Month=4
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 00 00 00 00 00 0
13 072 3
242 8634 22
1296 452029 702507 872718 942809 982858 992879 1002880 1002880 1002880 1002880 1002880 100
ufe
_p
erc
en
t M
IDP
OIN
T
10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -6.5 -7.5 -8.5 -9.5
-10.5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
72
UFE Distribution 2008Final - April
UFD25
UFE 2008 Analysis
Settlement=4 Final Month=5
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 00 00 00 00 00 0
14 043 1
148 5451 15
1057 361810 612480 832835 952946 992966 1002971 1002976 1002976 1002976 1002976 1002976 100
ufe
_p
erc
en
t M
IDP
OIN
T
10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -6.5 -7.5 -8.5 -9.5
-10.5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
73
UFE Distribution 2008Final - May
UFD26
UFE 2008 Analysis
Settlement=4 Final Month=6
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 00 00 00 00 00 00 0
19 1126 4360 13
1124 392065 722678 932867 1002880 1002880 1002880 1002880 1002880 1002880 1002880 1002880 100
ufe
_p
erc
en
t M
IDP
OIN
T
10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -6.5 -7.5 -8.5 -9.5
-10.5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
74
UFE Distribution 2008Final - June
UFD27
UFE 2008 Analysis
Settlement=4 Final Month=7
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 00 00 00 00 00 04 0
18 150 2
176 8608 29
1354 641926 912066 982112 1002112 1002112 1002112 1002112 1002112 1002112 1002112 100
ufe
_p
erc
en
t M
IDP
OIN
T
10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -6.5 -7.5 -8.5 -9.5
-10.5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
75
UFE Distribution 2008Final - July
UFD28
UFE 2008 Analysis
Settlement=4 Final Month=8
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 00 00 00 00 04 0
19 152 2
130 5303 11710 25
1342 472030 702588 902834 982874 1002880 1002880 1002880 1002880 1002880 1002880 100
ufe
_p
erc
en
t M
IDP
OIN
T
10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -6.5 -7.5 -8.5 -9.5
-10.5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
76
UFE Distribution 2008Final - August
UFD29
UFE 2008 Analysis
Settlement=4 Final Month=9
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 0
11 034 188 3
207 7524 18898 31
1355 471874 652309 802532 882717 942807 972868 1002880 100
ufe
_p
erc
en
t M
IDP
OIN
T
10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -6.5 -7.5 -8.5 -9.5
-10.5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
77
UFE Distribution 2008Final - September
UFD30
UFE 2008 Analysis
Settlement=4 Final Month=10
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
12 0.4029 0.9766 2.22
119 4.00307 10.32703 23.62
1306 43.881797 60.382151 72.282413 81.082634 88.512801 94.122887 97.012957 99.362969 99.762976 100.002976 100.002976 100.002976 100.002976 100.002976 100.002976 100.00
ufe
_p
erc
en
t M
IDP
OIN
T
10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -6.5 -7.5 -8.5 -9.5
-10.5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
78
UFE Distribution 2008Final - October
UFD31
UFE 2008 Analysis
Settlement=4 Final Month=11
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 00 00 00 02 0
15 146 2
135 5376 13948 33
1722 602256 782539 882763 962824 982871 1002884 1002884 1002884 1002884 1002884 1002884 100
ufe
_p
erc
en
t M
IDP
OIN
T
10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -6.5 -7.5 -8.5 -9.5
-10.5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
79
UFE Distribution 2008Final - November
UFD32
UFE 2008 Analysis
Settlement=4 Final Month=12
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 00 00 00 09 0
20 159 2
160 5333 11565 19
1029 351672 562095 702474 832741 922859 962928 982956 992970 1002976 1002976 1002976 100
ufe
_p
erc
en
t M
IDP
OIN
T
10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -6.5 -7.5 -8.5 -9.5
-10.5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
80
UFE Distribution 2008Final - December
UFD33
UFE 2008 Analysis81
UFE Distribution
True Up
UFE 2008 Analysis
Settlement=5 True Up Month=1
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 00 00 00 00 09 0
51 2123 4272 9525 18975 33
1457 492040 692547 862771 932884 972923 982948 992970 1002976 1002976 1002976 100
ufe
_p
erc
en
t M
IDP
OIN
T
10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -6.5 -7.5 -8.5 -9.5
-10.5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
82
UFE Distribution 2008True Up - January
UFD34
UFE 2008 Analysis
Settlement=5 True Up Month=2
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 00 00 00 00 00 0
18 198 4
306 11752 27
1338 481853 672190 792392 862556 922720 982783 1002784 1002784 1002784 1002784 1002784 100
ufe
_p
erc
en
t M
IDP
OIN
T
10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -6.5 -7.5 -8.5 -9.5
-10.5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
83
UFE Distribution 2008True Up - February
UFD35
UFE 2008 Analysis
Settlement=5 True Up Month=3
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
1 0.035 0.179 0.30
14 0.4728 0.9467 2.25
140 4.71285 9.59509 17.13813 27.36
1281 43.101871 62.952378 80.012664 89.642757 92.772840 95.562910 97.912926 98.452933 98.692952 99.332971 99.972972 100.00
ufe
_p
erc
en
t M
IDP
OIN
T
10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -6.5 -7.5 -8.5 -9.5
-10.5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
84
UFE Distribution 2008True Up - March
UFD36
UFE 2008 Analysis
Settlement=5 True Up Month=4
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 00 00 00 00 00 0
12 072 3
247 9624 22
1291 452023 702510 872720 942810 982858 992879 1002880 1002880 1002880 1002880 1002880 100
ufe
_p
erc
en
t M
IDP
OIN
T
10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -6.5 -7.5 -8.5 -9.5
-10.5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
85
UFE Distribution 2008True Up - April
UFD37
UFE 2008 Analysis
Settlement=5 True Up Month=5
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 00 00 00 00 00 0
15 148 2
154 5473 16
1094 371832 622503 842844 962946 992967 1002971 1002976 1002976 1002976 1002976 1002976 100
ufe
_p
erc
en
t M
IDP
OIN
T
10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -6.5 -7.5 -8.5 -9.5
-10.5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
86
UFE Distribution 2008True Up - May
UFD38
UFE 2008 Analysis
Settlement=5 True Up Month=6
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 00 00 00 00 00 00 0
13 0124 4361 13
1126 392068 722679 932867 1002880 1002880 1002880 1002880 1002880 1002880 1002880 1002880 100
ufe
_p
erc
en
t M
IDP
OIN
T
10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -6.5 -7.5 -8.5 -9.5
-10.5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
87
UFE Distribution 2008True Up - June
UFD39
UFE 2008 Analysis
Settlement=5 True Up Month=7
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 00 00 00 00 00 03 0
18 147 2
170 8583 28
1333 631911 902064 982112 1002112 1002112 1002112 1002112 1002112 1002112 1002112 100
ufe
_p
erc
en
t M
IDP
OIN
T
10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -6.5 -7.5 -8.5 -9.5
-10.5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
88
UFE Distribution 2008True Up - July
UFD40
UFE 2008 Analysis
Settlement=5 True Up Month=8
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 00 00 00 00 01 0
13 046 2
117 4290 10674 23
1282 451986 692565 892813 982873 1002880 1002880 1002880 1002880 1002880 1002880 100
ufe
_p
erc
en
t M
IDP
OIN
T
10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -6.5 -7.5 -8.5 -9.5
-10.5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
89
UFE Distribution 2008True Up - August
UFD41
UFE 2008 Analysis
Settlement=5 True Up Month=9
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 06 0
36 191 3
219 8526 18908 32
1360 471878 652315 802540 882721 942810 982868 1002880 100
ufe
_p
erc
en
t M
IDP
OIN
T
10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -6.5 -7.5 -8.5 -9.5
-10.5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
90
UFE Distribution 2008True Up - September
UFD42
UFE 2008 Analysis
Settlement=5 True Up Month=10
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
22 0.7448 1.6185 2.86
184 6.18430 14.45928 31.18
1497 50.301931 64.892261 75.972483 83.432692 90.462834 95.232925 98.292961 99.502971 99.832976 100.002976 100.002976 100.002976 100.002976 100.002976 100.002976 100.00
ufe
_p
erc
en
t M
IDP
OIN
T
10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -6.5 -7.5 -8.5 -9.5
-10.5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
91
UFE Distribution 2008True Up - October
UFD43
UFE 2008 Analysis
Settlement=5 True Up Month=11
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 00 00 00 02 0
16 152 2
159 6427 15
1068 371784 622292 792546 882773 962825 982872 1002884 1002884 1002884 1002884 1002884 1002884 100
ufe
_p
erc
en
t M
IDP
OIN
T
10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -6.5 -7.5 -8.5 -9.5
-10.5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
92
UFE Distribution 2008True Up - November
UFD44
UFE 2008 Analysis
Settlement=5 True Up Month=12
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 00 00 00 0
10 020 162 2
165 6338 11578 19
1056 351697 572104 712490 842747 922862 962928 982956 992970 1002976 1002976 1002976 100
ufe
_p
erc
en
t M
IDP
OIN
T
10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -5.5 -6.5 -7.5 -8.5 -9.5
-10.5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
93
UFE Distribution 2008True Up - December
UFD45
UFE 2008 Analysis94
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load 2008Initial Settlement plus95% Confidence Interval
CIP01
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
ER
CO
T L
oad
Day of the Week 2008Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun TueMon Wed Thur Fri Sat
UFE 2008 Analysis95CIP02
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load 2008Final Settlement plus95% Confidence Interval
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
ER
CO
T L
oad
Day of the Week 2008
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun TueMon Wed Thur Fri Sat
UFE 2008 Analysis96CIP03
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load 2008True-Up Settlement plus95% Confidence Interval
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
ER
CO
T L
oad
Day of the Week 2008
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun TueMon Wed Thur Fri Sat
UFE 2008 Analysis97CIP04
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load 2008Comparison of Medians for Initial & Final
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
UF
E P
erce
nt o
f E
RC
OT
Lo
ad
Day of the Week 2008
Initial Final
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Note: True Up is omitted since the results for Final and True Up are similar.
UFE 2008 Analysis98
Seasonal Comparison - Spring 2008UFE Percent of ERCOT Load and ERCOT Load
SEA01
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
-4.5
-4.0
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
ER
CO
T L
oad
(M
W)
UF
E P
erc
en
t o
f E
RC
OT
Lo
ad
Day of the Week
Initial Final Total ERCOT Aggregated Load Adjusted for Losses
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Note: True Up is omitted since the results for Final and True Up are similar.
UFE 2008 Analysis99
Seasonal Comparison - Summer 2008UFE Percent of ERCOT Load and ERCOT Load
SEA02
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
60000
-4.5
-4.0
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
ER
CO
T L
oad
(M
W)
UF
E P
erce
nt o
f E
RC
OT
Lo
ad
Day of the Week
Initial Final Total ERCOT Aggregated Load Adjusted for Losses
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Note: True Up is omitted since the results for Final and True Up are similar.
UFE 2008 Analysis100
Seasonal Comparison - Fall 2008UFE Percent of ERCOT Load and ERCOT Load
SEA03
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
-4.5
-4.0
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
ER
CO
T L
oad
(M
W)
UF
E P
erce
nt o
f E
RC
OT
Lo
ad
Day of the Week
Initial Final Total ERCOT Aggregated Load Adjusted for Losses
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Note: True Up is omitted since the results for Final and True Up are similar.
UFE 2008 Analysis101
Seasonal Comparison - Winter 2008UFE Percent of ERCOT Load and ERCOT Load
SEA04
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
-4.5
-4.0
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
ER
CO
T L
oad
(M
W)
UF
E P
erc
en
t o
f E
RC
OT
Lo
ad
Day of the Week
Initial Final Total ERCOT Aggregated Load Adjusted for Losses
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Note: True Up is omitted since the results for Final and True Up are similar.
UFE 2008 Analysis102SEA05
Seasonal Comparison of Medians – Initial SettlementUFE Percent of ERCOT Load - 2008
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
Lo
ad
Day of the Week
Spring Summer Fall Winter
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
UFE 2008 Analysis103SEA06
Seasonal Comparison of Medians – Final SettlementUFE Percent of ERCOT Load - 2008
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
Lo
ad
Day of the Week
Spring Summer Fall Winter
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
UFE 2008 Analysis104SEA07
Seasonal Comparison of Medians – True UpUFE Percent of ERCOT Load - 2008
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
Lo
ad
Day of the Week
Spring Summer Fall Winter
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
UFE 2008 Analysis105
Percent UFE vs ERCOT LoadInitial Settlement - 2008
MPL01
-9.0
-8.0
-7.0
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
Pe
rce
nt
UF
E
ERCOT Load (MW)
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on Total Aggregated Load
UFE 2008 Analysis106
Percent UFE vs ERCOT LoadFinal Settlement - 2008
MPL02
-9.0
-8.0
-7.0
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
Pe
rce
nt
UF
E
ERCOT Load (MW)
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on Total Aggregated Load
UFE 2008 Analysis107
Percent UFE vs ERCOT LoadTrue-Up Settlement – 2008
MPL03
-9.0
-8.0
-7.0
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
Pe
rce
nt
UF
E
ERCOT Load (MW)
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on Total Aggregated Load
UFE 2008 Analysis108
Comparison of Median Percent UFEInitial, Final and True-Up Settlements - 2008
MPL04
-4.5
-4.0
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
Pe
rce
nt
UF
E
ERCOT Load (MW)
Initial Final True Up Regression on Total Aggregated Load
UFE 2008 Analysis109
Load Weighted Average MCPE vs LoadInitial Settlement - 2008
MPL05
-100.0
-50.0
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000
Lo
ad
We
igh
ted
Av
era
ge
MC
PE
($
/MW
H)
ERCOT Load (MW)
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on MCPE vs Load
Load Wt'd Avg MCPE 95th percentile max value = $1017 per mWh
UFE 2008 Analysis110
Load Weighted Average MCPE vs Load Final Settlement - 2008
MPL06
-100.0
-50.0
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000
Lo
ad
We
igh
ted
Av
era
ge
MC
PE
($
/MW
H)
ERCOT Load (MW)
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on MCPE vs Load
Load Wt'd Avg MCPE 95th percentile max value = $1021 per mWh
UFE 2008 Analysis111
Load Weighted Average MCPE vs Load True Up Settlement - 2008
MPL07
-100.0
-50.0
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000
Lo
ad
We
igh
ted
Av
era
ge
MC
PE
($
/MW
H)
ERCOT Load (MW)
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on MCPE vs Load
Load Wt'd Avg MCPE 95th percentile max value = $1021 per mWh
UFE 2008 Analysis112
Comparison of Median Load Weighted Average MCPE vs Load for Initial, Final and True-Up Settlements - 2008
MPL08
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000
Lo
ad
We
igh
ted
Av
era
ge
MC
PE
($
/MW
H)
ERCOT Load (MW)
Initial Final True Up Reg on MCPE vs Load
UFE 2008 Analysis113
Load Weighted Average MCPE vs Percent UFE Initial Settlement - 2008
MPL09
-80.0
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
-37.0 -33.0 -29.0 -25.0 -21.0 -17.0 -13.0 -9.0 -5.0 -1.0 3.0 7.0 11.0
Lo
ad
We
igh
ted
Av
era
ge
MC
PE
($
/MW
H)
Percent UFE of Load
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on MCPE vs Percent UFE
Load Wt'd Avg MCPE 5th percentile min value = -999 $ per mWh
UFE 2008 Analysis114MPL10
Load Weighted Average MCPE vs Percent UFE Final Settlement - 2008
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
-11.0 -9.0 -7.0 -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 9.0
Lo
ad
We
igh
ted
Av
era
ge
MC
PE
($
/MW
H)
Percent UFE of Load
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on MCPE vs Percent UFE
Load Wt'd Avg MCPE 95th percentile max value = 1999 $ per mWh
UFE 2008 Analysis115MPL11
Load Weighted Average MCPE vs Percent UFE True-Up Settlement - 2008
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
-12.0 -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0
Lo
ad
We
igh
ted
Av
era
ge
MC
PE
($
/MW
H)
Percent UFE of Load
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on MCPE vs Percent UFE
Load Wt'd Avg MCPE 95th percentile max value = 1999 $ per mWh
UFE 2008 Analysis116
Comparison of Median Load Weighted Average MCPE vs Percent UFE forInitial, Final and True-Up Settlements - 2008
MPL12
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
-12.0 -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0
Lo
ad W
eig
hte
d A
vera
ge
MC
PE
($/M
WH
)
Percent UFE of Load
Initial Final True UP Regression on MCPE vs Percent UFE
UFE 2008 Analysis117
Sum of Dollars from Positive UFEacross the Week 2008
UCT02
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Do
llars
Day of the Week
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
UFE 2008 Analysis118
Sum of Dollars from Negative UFEacross the Week 2008
UCT03
-2,500,000
-2,000,000
-1,500,000
-1,000,000
-500,000
0
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
UFE 2008 Analysis119UCT04
Sum of Dollars from Absolute Value of UFE across the Week 2008
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Do
llar
s
Day of the Week
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
UFE 2008 Analysis120
Sum of Dollars from Net UFE across the Week 2008
UCT05
-2,500,000
-2,000,000
-1,500,000
-1,000,000
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
UFE 2008 Analysis121UCT06
SUM of UFE DollarsCompare All Seasons in 2008Positive and Negative UFE
-2,000,000
-1,500,000
-1,000,000
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
-2,000,000
-1,500,000
-1,000,000
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - September 30
-2,000,000
-1,500,000
-1,000,000
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: October 1 - November 30
-2,000,000
-1,500,000
-1,000,000
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: December 1 - February 28
UFE 2008 Analysis122
SUM of UFE Dollars – Spring 2008Positive and Negative UFE
UCT07
-2,000,000
-1,500,000
-1,000,000
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
UFE 2008 Analysis123UCT08
SUM of UFE Dollars – Summer 2008Positive and Negative UFE
-2,000,000
-1,500,000
-1,000,000
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - September 30
UFE 2008 Analysis124UCT09
SUM of UFE Dollars – Fall 2008Positive and Negative UFE
-2,000,000
-1,500,000
-1,000,000
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: October 1 - November 30
UFE 2008 Analysis125UCT10
SUM of UFE Dollars – Winter 2008Positive and Negative UFE
-2,000,000
-1,500,000
-1,000,000
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: December 1 - February 28
UFE 2008 Analysis126UCT11
SUM of UFE DollarsCompare All Seasons in 2008Absolute Value and Net UFE
-2,000,000
-1,500,000
-1,000,000
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
-2,000,000
-1,500,000
-1,000,000
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
Do
llar
s
Day of the Week
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - Sept 30
-2,000,000
-1,500,000
-1,000,000
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: Oct 1 - Nov 30
-2,000,000
-1,500,000
-1,000,000
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: Dec 1 - Feb 28
UFE 2008 Analysis127
SUM of UFE Dollars – Spring 2008Absolute Value and Net UFE
UCT12
-2,000,000
-1,500,000
-1,000,000
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
UFE 2008 Analysis128UCT13
SUM of UFE Dollars – Summer 2008Absolute Value and Net UFE
-2,000,000
-1,500,000
-1,000,000
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
Do
llar
s
Day of the Week
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - Sept 30
UFE 2008 Analysis129UCT14
SUM of UFE Dollars – Fall 2008Absolute Value and Net UFE
-2,000,000
-1,500,000
-1,000,000
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: Oct 1 - Nov 30
UFE 2008 Analysis130UCT15
SUM of UFE Dollars – Winter 2008 Absolute Value and Net UFE
-2,000,000
-1,500,000
-1,000,000
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: Dec 1 - Feb 28
UFE 2008 Analysis131
Mean of UFE DollarsCompare All Seasons in 2008Positive and Negative UFE
UCT16
-250,000
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
-250,000
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - Sept 30
-250,000
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: Oct 1 - Nov 30
-250,000
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: Dec 1 - Feb 28
UFE 2008 Analysis132UCT17
Mean of UFE Dollars – Spring 2008Positive and Negative UFE
-250,000
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
UFE 2008 Analysis133UCT18
Mean of UFE Dollars – Summer 2008Positive and Negative UFE
-250,000
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - Sept 30
UFE 2008 Analysis134UCT19
Mean of UFE Dollars – Fall 2008Positive and Negative UFE
-250,000
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: Oct 1 - Nov 30
UFE 2008 Analysis135UCT20
Mean of UFE Dollars – Winter 2008Positive and Negative UFE
-250,000
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: Dec 1 - Feb 28
UFE 2008 Analysis136
Mean of UFE DollarsCompare All Seasons in 2008 Absolute Value and Net UFE
UCT21
-250,000
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Do
llar
s
Day of the Week
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
-250,000
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - Sept 30
-250,000
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: Oct 1 - Nov 30
-250,000
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: Dec 1 - Feb 28
UFE 2008 Analysis137UCT22
Mean of UFE Dollars – Spring 2008Absolute Value and Net UFE
-250,000
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Do
llar
s
Day of the Week
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
UFE 2008 Analysis138UCT23
Mean of UFE Dollars – Summer 2008Absolute Value and Net UFE
-250,000
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - Sept 30
UFE 2008 Analysis139UCT24
Mean of UFE Dollars – Fall 2008 Absolute Value and Net UFE
-250,000
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: Oct 1 - Nov 30
UFE 2008 Analysis140UCT25
Mean of UFE Dollars – Winter 2008Absolute Value and Net UFE
-250,000
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: Dec 1 - Feb 28
UFE 2008 Analysis141
Hurricanes Edouard and Ike were the largest single event contributors to UFE in 2008.
Mean and median UFE (MW) and UFE as Percent of Load declined from 2007 values. Min and std dev values increased due to the hurricane effects.
Mean and median UFE Cost ($) and UFE Cost as Percent of Total Cost declined from 2007 values. Min and std dev values increased due to the hurricane effects.
UFE 2008 Analysis Observations
UFE 2008 Analysis142
Develop new profile models using Round 2 load research data.
Perform settlements using 15 minute interval data from AMI meters.
Evaluate algorithms for replacing missing AMI, IDR and NIDR data estimation.
Improve distribution loss estimates.
Steps to Reduce UFE
